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Oscar Predictions
for the 92nd Academy Awards
2019 FILM YEAR
/ 2020 OSCAR CEREMONY

CURRENT DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS RACE

APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTIONS ARE COMPLETE

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ALL OSCAR RACE ARTICLES

 

BEST PICTURE
 

1917

A Beautiful Day In...

Ford v Ferrari

The Goldfinch

The Good Liar

Harriet

JoJo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time...

Queen & Slim

The Report
 

Last year's score this early was 50%, as we correctly saw 4 of the 8 a year in advance (ASIB, BP, Vice, and Favourite) . Whoa! Great job, us!

BEST DIRECTOR 

John Crowley
The Goldfinch

Marielle Heller
A Beautiful Day In...

Kasi Lemmons
Harriet

James Mangold
Ford V Ferrari

Sam Mendes
1917 

Last year's score a dismal 1 of 5 (only seeing McKay coming a year early). Best score ever this early is 2 of 5 (which has happened fairly frequently)

 

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams
Woman in Window

Cynthia Erivo
Harriet

Helen Mirren
The Good Liar

Charlize Theron
Untitled Roger Ailes

Alfre Woodard
Clemency 

We've scored as high as 3/5 in the past but last year we only saw Glenn Close coming this early (oops) since we guessed that Olivia Colman would be in supporting.

BEST ACTOR

Ben Affleck
Torrance

Taron Egerton
Rocketman

Tom Hanks
A Beautiful Day...

Daniel Kaluuya
Queen & Slim 

Ian McKellen
The Good Liar

We usually get 2/5 correct this early which we did again last year.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Annette Bening
The Report

Scarlett Johansson
JoJo Rabbit

Thomasin McKenzie
JoJo Rabbit

Margot Robbie
Once Upon a Time...

Kristen Stewart
Against All Enemies 

2/5 correctly guessed this early is normal for us and we did it last year too with Regina King & Amy Adams predicted.

SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Willem Dafoe
Last Thing He Wanted

John Lithgow
Untitled Roger Ailes

Al Pacino
The Irishman

Matthew Rhys
A Beautiful Day...

Jeffrey Wright
The Goldfinch 

Last year was our best year ever in predicting this category a year early (3/5 - elliott, grant, rockwell) but normally we dont score nearly that well.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Farewell
Wang

Harriet
Howard & Lemmons

Once Upon a Time
Tarantino

Queen & Slim 
Frey & Waithe

The Report 
Burns 

For three consecutive years we've guessed 2/5 correct this early (which is much harder than it sounds in Original Screenplay. Try recording yours sometime this early)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Beautiful Day In...
Fitzerman-Blue & Harpster

The Goldfinch
Straughan

The Good Liar
Hatcher

JoJo Rabbit
Waititi

Woman in the Window
Letts
 

For three consecutive years we've guessed 2/5 correct this early (which is easier to do than in Original Screenplay)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Goldfinch
Deakins

Harriet
Toll

Little Women
Le Saux

Nomadland
Richards

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Richardson 

After three consecutive years of a great score this early (3/5) we face-planted last year only seeing A Star is Born coming.

COSTUME DESIGN  

Aladdin
Wilkinson

Harriet
Tazewell

JoJo Rabbit
Rubeos

Little Women
Durran

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Phillips 

3/5 is our best score ever in this category this early and we did it again last year

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1917
Gassner

A Beautiful Day
Healey

JoJo Rabbit
Vincent

Little Women
Gonchor

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ling 

11 years ago we correctly guessed 4/5 this early (our all time record). We did well last year too with 3/5 early (Black Panther, First Man, MPR)

FILM EDITING

1917
Smith

Ford v. Ferrari
McCusker

Goldfinch
Dixon

Queen & Slim
Beaudreau

The Report
O'Bryant 

One of the hardest categories to predict a year early since it's so tied to Best Picture. We usually get 2/5 correct but last year only 1/5 this early (Vice)

VISUAL EFFECTS

Ad Astra

Aladdin

Avengers Endgame

Gemini Man

Star Wars Episode IX 

2017 was our best year ever for the April predix with a 4/5 but last year we only got 2/5 (Avengers & Solo)

MAKEUP & HAIR

Aladdin

Avengers Endgame

The King

Rocketman

Untitled Roger Ailes 

Another tough category to suss out early. My best year was 2/3 ten years ago but usually it's 0 or 1 this This is our first year with 5 nominees so we'll see how well the predictions go.

FOREIGN FILM 
(CHARTS COMING AFTER CANNES)

Chile

France

Israel

Norway

Spain 

Since we never know what will be submitted until the fall, I generally don't score well at all this early in this category as it's blindly pointing out a map with hundreds of possibilities. Best score ever was 2/5 which we managed again in 2018.

ORIGINAL SONG

Aladdin

Cats

Frozen 2

The Lion King

Missing Link 

We usually guess a couple of them right this early. 2/5 again (Mary Poppins & A Star is Born-- musicals help!)

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Ford v Ferrari
Beltrami

The Good Liar
Burwell

Harriet
Blanchard
• 
Pain & Glory
Iglesias
• 
Star Wars IX
Williams 

Correctly guessed 2/5 again last year. That's fairly standard. More than 2 is very difficult because they're often the last personnel hired so it's hard to know a year out!

 

SOUND MIXING

1917

Ad Astra

Ford v Ferrari

Rocketman

Star Wars IX 

2017 was our best predictive year ever in sound 3/5. We did it again in 2018. Yay! Can we make it three consecutive years?

SOUND EDITING

1917

Ad Astra

Ford v Ferrari

The Lion King

Star Wars IX 

2017 was our most predictive year ever this early here with 3/5. We did it again in 2018. Yay! Can we make it three consecutive years?

ANIMATED FILM

HTTYD: The Hidden World 

Klaus

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

Wish Dragon

We often score 3/5 this early (not too difficult given the shallow pool. Last year we went 4/5 this early -- our record -- ...missing only Mirai)

 

DOCUMENTARY

 NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR

SHORTS, DOCUMENTARY

 NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR

 

SHORTS, LIVE ACTION

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

SHORTS, ANIMATED

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

 

 

 

PREDICTED NOMINATION TALLY

7 nominations
HARRIET

6 nominations
1917
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
FORD V FERRARI
THE GOLDFINCH
THE GOOD LIAR 
JOJO RABBIT
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD 

4 nominations
THE GOOD LIAR
QUEEN & SLIM
THE REPORT
STAR WARS EPISODE IX 

3 nominations
AD ASTRA
LITTLE WOMEN 
ROCKETMAN 
UNTITLED ROGER AILES PROJECT 

2 nominations
ALADDIN
AVENGERS: ENDGAME
THE LION KING 
MISSING LINK
PAIN & GLORY 
WOMAN IN THE WINDOW

1 nomination
AGAINST ALL ENEMIES
CATS
CLEMENCY
THE FAREWELL
FROZEN 2
GEMINI MAN
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 3
THE IRISHMAN
THE KING
KLAUS
LAST THING HE WANTED
NOMADLAND
TORRANCE
WISH DRAGON

 

sound off on the Oscar race

How'd we do last year a whole year in advance? We greatly overestimated First Man, If Beale Street, Mary Poppins Returns... and more embarrassingly Everybody Knows, Peterloo, and Beautiful Boy (which all received zero nominations and two of them were pushed back to 2019 and will not be contenders this year either). And even though we correctly predicted a Best Picture nod for The Favourite we were way off on its number of nominations.

We were in the right ballpark but slightly underestimating or overestimating A Star is Born, A Quiet Place, and Vice. We nailed exactly The Wife, Solo, At Eternity's Gate, Avengers Infinity War, Wreck it Ralph 2, Into the Spider-Verse (all with just one nod) and Black Panther (with 7 nods).

 

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