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The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

 

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What will & should win Best Comedy at the Emmys?

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Oscar Predictions
for the 92nd Academy Awards
2019 FILM YEAR
/ 2020 OSCAR CEREMONY

CURRENT DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS RACE

AUGUST 11TH PREDICTION UPDATES COMPLETE

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ALL OSCAR RACE ARTICLES

 

BEST PICTURE
 

UPDATED

1917

A Beautiful Day In...

The Farewell

Harriet

The Irishman

JoJo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time...

Queen & Slim

BEST DIRECTOR 

UPDATED

Marielle Heller
A Beautiful Day In...

Sam Mendes
1917 

Quentin Tarantino
Once Upon a Time...

Taika Waititi
JoJo Rabbit

Lulu Wang
The Farewell 

 

BEST ACTRESS

UPDATED

Cynthia Erivo
Harriet

Helen Mirren
The Good Liar

Meryl Streep
The Laundromat

Jodie Turner-Smith
Queen & Slim

Renée Zellweger
Judy 

BEST ACTOR

UPDATED

Antonio Banderas
Pain & Glory

Tom Hanks
A Beautiful Day...

Michael B Jordan
Just Mercy

Daniel Kaluuya
Queen & Slim 

Ian McKellen
The Good Liar

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

UPDATED

Annette Bening
The Report

Laura Dern
Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson
JoJo Rabbit

Margot Robbie
Once Upon a Time...

Zhao Shuzhen
The Farewell 

SUPPORTING ACTOR 

UPDATED

Willem Dafoe
The Lighthouse

John Lithgow
Untitled Roger Ailes

Al Pacino
The Irishman

Brad Pitt
Once Upon a Time...

Jeffrey Wright
The Goldfinch 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

UPDATED

The Farewell
Wang

Once Upon a Time
Tarantino

Queen & Slim 
Frey & Waithe

Pain & Glory
Almodovar

The Report 
Burns 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

UPDATED

A Beautiful Day In...
Fitzerman-Blue & Harpster

JoJo Rabbit
Waititi

Just Mercy
Cretton & Lanham

Little Women
Gerwig

The Laundromat
Burns

CINEMATOGRAPHY

UPDATED

1917
Deakins

Harriet
Toll

The Lighthouse
Blasche

Little Women
Le Saux

Once Upon a Time
Richardson 

COSTUME DESIGN  

UPDATED

Aeronauts
Byrne

Harriet
Tazewell

JoJo Rabbit
Rubeos

Little Women
Durran

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Phillips 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

UPDATED

1917
Gassner

Ad Astra
Thompson

A Beautiful Day
Healey

Cats
Stewart

Once Upon a Time
Ling 

FILM EDITING

UPDATED

1917
Smith

Ad Astra
Axelrad & Haugen

Ford v. Ferrari
McCusker

Harriet
Smith

The Irishman
Schoonmaker

VISUAL EFFECTS

UPDATED

Ad Astra

Avengers Endgame

Cats

The Lion King

Star Wars Episode IX 

MAKEUP & HAIR

UPDATED

Avengers Endgame

Judy

Rocketman

Untitled Roger Ailes 

Us 

FOREIGN FILM 

UPDATED

Brazil

France

Norway

South Korea

Spain 

ORIGINAL SONG

UPDATED

Aladdin

Cats

Frozen 2

The Lion King

Rocketman

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

UPDATED

Ford v Ferrari
Beltrami

JoJo Rabbit
Giacchino

Little Women
Desplat
• 
Pain & Glory
Iglesias
• 
Star Wars IX
Williams 

 

SOUND MIXING

UPDATED

1917

Ad Astra

Avengers: Endgame

Ford v Ferrari

Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker 

SOUND EDITING

UPDATED

1917

Ad Astra

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time...

Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker

ANIMATED FILM

UPDATED

Frozen 2

HTTYD: The Hidden World 

Klaus

Missing Link

Toy Story 4

 

DOCUMENTARY

UPDATED

Apollo 13

Edge of Democracy

The Great Hack

Maiden

One Child Nation 

SHORTS, DOCUMENTARY

 NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR

 

SHORTS, LIVE ACTION

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

SHORTS, ANIMATED

NO PREDICTIONS UNTIL LATER IN YEAR 

 

 

 

PREDICTED NOMINATION TALLY
(pluses and minuses represent shifts since the April chart debuts)

9 nominations
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD (+3)

7 nominations
1917 (+1)

6 nominations
JOJO RABBIT (=)

5 nominations
AD ASTRA (+2) highest predicted nomination tally without Best Picture
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN NEIGHBORHOOD (-1)
HARRIET (-2) 

4 nominations
THE FAREWELL (+3)
FORD V FERRARI (-2)
LITTLE WOMEN (+1)
PAIN & GLORY (+2)
QUEEN & SLIM (=)
STAR WARS EPISODE IX (=)

3 nominations
AVENGERS ENDGAME (+1)
CATS (+2)
THE IRISHMAN (+2) lowest predicted tally for a best picture nominee

2 nominations
FROZEN 2 (+1)
THE GOOD LIAR (-4)
JUDY (+2)
JUST MERCY (+2)
THE LAUNDROMAT (+2)
THE LIGHTHOUSE (+2)
THE LION KING (=)
THE REPORT (-2)
ROCKETMAN (-1)

1 nomination
THE AERONAUTS (+1)
ALADDIN (-1)
THE GOLDFINCH (-5)
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: HIDDEN WORLD (=)
KLAUS (=)
MARRIAGE STORY (+1)
MISSING LINK (-1)
UNTITLED ROGER AILES PROJECT (-2)
US (+1)

 

sound off on the Oscar race

How'd we do last year a whole year in advance? We greatly overestimated First Man, If Beale Street, Mary Poppins Returns... and more embarrassingly Everybody Knows, Peterloo, and Beautiful Boy (which all received zero nominations and two of them were pushed back to 2019 and will not be contenders this year either). And even though we correctly predicted a Best Picture nod for The Favourite we were way off on its number of nominations.

We were in the right ballpark but slightly underestimating or overestimating A Star is Born, A Quiet Place, and Vice. We nailed exactly The Wife, Solo, At Eternity's Gate, Avengers Infinity War, Wreck it Ralph 2, Into the Spider-Verse (all with just one nod) and Black Panther (with 7 nods).

 

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