Scarlett Johansson
2 nominations
"Linda Pearl"
PAPER TIGER
(Neon)
Date tba

Reportedly a showy and excellent performance as an anxious wife in crisis whose husband and brother in law are mixed up with the mafia.

Mikey Madison
1 nom | 1 win
"Frances Haugen"
THE SOCIAL RECKONING
(Sony)
Oct 9

Will the Academy want to rubber stamp her recent win? It's a high profile leading role. Even if the film isn't great, she could emerge as a threat.

Sophie Okonedo
1 nomination
"Clarissa"
CLARISSA
(Neon )
Date tba

Reviews are superlative for her work in this adaptation of Mrs Dalloway set in Nigeria. She's such a fantastic actor on the regular.

Ruth Madeley
never nominated
BEING HEUMANN
(Apple)
Date tba

This wheelchair using actress has been up for a BAFTA TV award before and now plays a disability activist in 1970s San Francisco in this biopic from the writer/director of CODA.

Julianne Moore
5 noms | 1 win
"Mona Friedman"
THE DEBUT
(A24)
Date tba

It sounds like an interesting role as a shy woman who really dives into community theater and the director trying to shape her performance. Wouldn't it be great to see her back?

Sandra Hüller
1 nomination
"Erika Mann"
FATHERLAND
(Mubi)
Date tba

Húller is on such a role and it won't hurt that she's in multiple films this year including an enormous box office hit in Project Hail Mary.

Michelle Williams
5 noms
A PLACE IN HELL
(Neon)
Dec 25

She plays a cutthroat attorney preparing for maternity leave when a younger lawyer threatens her place in the firm. While it could be more of a commercial play they do love this actress and the role sounds atypical for her which is exciting!

Renate Reinsve
1 nomination
"Lisbeth Gheorgiu"
FJORD
(Neon)
Date tba

Can she go back-to-back to Oscar nominations for Cannes hit? She plays a conservative religious woman in legal trouble. While the movie won the Palm it doesn't sound like the roles are flashy enough for easy get Oscar nods

Inde Navarette
never nominated
"Nikki"
OBSESSION
(Focus Features)
May 15

Let me dream for a moment -- even though horror isn't remotely my favourite genre -- that they've now started to take horror acting seriously post- Amy Madigan. At the very least no one can argue that she isn't great in this picture!

Daisy Edgar-Jones
never nominated
"Elinor Dashwood"
SENSE & SENSIBILITY
(Focus)
Oct 16

It might be tough to come out from under the shadow of Emma Thompson but it also might help that she chases it with another lead role two months later in A Place in Hell.

Virginie Efira
as "Marie-Lou Fontaine" and Tao Okomoto
as "Mari Morisaki" never nominated
ALL OF A SUDDEN
(Neon)
Date tba

Best Actress Winners at Cannes.
I refuse to demote one of them to Supporting until Oscar campaigns force me to. Would that ANY distributor would be brave enough to campaign for double lead same gender nominations. People always think it can't happen but it only can't because no one tries; When they did try, it happened! See numerous examples from the first 60+ years of Oscar history. Anyway they are both said to be remarkable in this talky drama about the head of a care facility and a dying patient.

Caitronia Balfe
never nominated
A LONG WINTER
(Mubi)
Date tba

She plays an alcoholic wife and mother who ventures out into a snowstorm and goes missing. Haigh is good with actors and the cast is strong. Will need big support from fall festivals, though. (Could she be supporting?)

Cate Blanchett
2 wins
"Eleanor"
SWEETSICK
(Searchlight)
Date tba

Blanchett is always considered if the film itself has appeal beyond just her performance. When she's the sole selling point, it doesn't happen (unlike, say, Streep)

Emily Blunt
1 nomination
DISCLOSURE DAY
(Universal)
June 12

A fascinating acting challenge... which she absolutely aces. Unfortunately the acting branch is very weird about sci-fi performances. And they're weird about actors who make difficult things look effortless; both will be problems for Blunt during awards season. Forever underestimated!

The possibilities are always endless this early in the year --what's more there will obviously be shifting in who is considered lead and who is "supporting" and which movies even get released and which are DOA. But here are some people who might be eligible for the Leading Actress Oscar, divided into three groups (previous nominees, never nominated, early in career still) But first let's talk about Rooney Mara (2 noms) and Kate Mara (never nominated) as "Jean and Joan Holbrooke" in BUCKING FASTARD.

The Mara sisters co-star in Werner Herzog's latest and the early buzz (hype?) is that they're excellent in it. The conceit is that the sisters are so close they speak in unison and share dreams. Good luck to voters, pundits, journalists, and awards strategist who make obnoxious but committted arguments each year that a film can't have two leads of the same gender. Our sincere dream is that the buzz about their work is true and they get a strong distributor to really push for them to score a double nomination. It's been WAY too long since a movie even attempted it... Frost/Nixon was the last double-lead campaign we can recall and that was a rarity even by 2008.

PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINEES

• Alicia Vikander The Echo Chamber (tba) ...but she's been out of the mix for a long while
• Amy Adams, At the Sea (tba)...but reviews were harsh out of Berlin
• Andrea Riseborough Queen of Fashion... but we suspect 2027
• Anne Hathaway FOUR FILMS The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century, May 1), The End of Oak Street (Warner Bros, Aug 14), Mother Mary (A24, April 17), and Verity (Amazon MGM, Oct 2) ... but that's way too many leading roles in a single year.
• Brie Larson Close Personal Friends (Amazon, tba) but it's a comedy and Amazon is unpredictable with awards season. Will it wait for 2027?
• Charlize Theron Apex (Netflix, Apr 24) ...but it's a thriller dumped to streaming
• Ellen Burstyn Plaee to Be ()... but we suspect 2027
• Helen Mirren Switzerland (Magnolia) playing the author Patricia Highsmith in her later years
• Isabelle Huppert, Parallel History (tba)... but no buzz at Cannes
• Jessica Chastain Other Mommy (Oct 9) ... but it's horror
• Jessie Buckley The Bride! (Warner Bros, Mar 6) ... but it flopped
• Juliette Binoche Queen at Sea (Greenwich) ... she's always great
• Lesley Manville Midwinter Break (Focus, Feb 20) ... but it came and went
• Margot Robbie, Wuthering Heights (Warner Bros, Feb 13)... but people were weirdly negative
• Marisa Tomei You're Dating a Narcissist (Brainstorm Media, Mar 27) ...but it was very low profile
• Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century, May 1) ... but it's a legacy sequel with two female leads
• Monica Barbaro One Night Only (Aug 7) but it's a romantic comedy
• Nicole Kidman Practical Magic 2 (Warner Bros, Sept 11) ...but it's a legacy sequel with two female leads
• Olivia Colman Jimpa (Kino Lorber, Feb 6) AND Wicker (Black Bear) the latter sounds just delightful but Black Bear isn't known for Oscar campaigns
• Penélope Cruz Bunker ... isn't it fun that she and her husband have the exact same Oscar stats?
• Rachel McAdams, Send Help () Jan 30 ... but it's a comic thriller -- too broad for awards voters. Can we at least hope for a Globe nomination?
• Renate Reinsve Backroom (A24, May 29) ... but Fjord is infinitely more likely as an awards vehicle
• Rinky Kikuchi - Ha Chan Shake Your Booty (Sony Pictures Classics) This dance film looks charming and Kikuchi (Babel) has been winning strong reviews.
• Rosamund Pike Wife and Dog (Oct 23) ...but doesn't sound Oscary
• Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix, May 8)... but it feels more like an Emmy film
• Sandra Bullock Practical Magic 2 (Warner Bros, Sept 11)... but it's a legacy sequel with two female leads
• Sandra Hüller Rose - so ubiquitous that Hüller

THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN NOMINATED

• Angourie Rice Finding Emily (Focus) ...but it's a romantic comedy
• Carrie Coon Harmonia (tba)... could be an amazing role (a mother in an all female cult) but we suspect 2027
• Daisy Edgar-Jones as "Cate Fine" in A Place in Hell (Neon, Dec 25) ...but could go supporting since there are two female leads
• Dakota Johnson Verity (Amazon/MGM, Oct 2) ...but Anne Hathaway could pull focus in what looks like the more interesting part
• Hannah Einbinder Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (MUBI, Aug 7)... but Gillian Anderson has the showier part
• Jenna Ortega as "Klara" in Klara and the Sun (Oct 23)... but she plays a robot and Oscar is weird about sci-fi. Plus, it's been sitting on a shelf for a year. Sounds interesting, though!
• Joan Collins as "Wallis Simpson" in My Duchess
• Jodie Comer The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde ... but why has it been sitting on a shelf?
• Keke Palmer I Love Boosters (Neon, May 22) ...but she feels more likely as a Globe Comedy contender (if they're feeling hip this year and have long memories)
• Kristen Wiig Cut Off (Warner Bros, Jul 17)... but Oscar rarely does silly
• Lea Seydoux The Unknown (Neon) AND Gentle Monster (Netflix) but subtitled so that's a hurdle... especially if you're competing with yourself.
• Leslie Mann Poetic License (Row K, Oct 16) AND Spa Night (Black Bear, Aug 21) but they're both comedies
• Maika Monroe Victoria Psycho (Bleecker Street, Sept 25) but it's horror
• Marion Bailey Tender Loving Care... but it's impossible to know what the role's like... or even if she's the lead (yet) given that Mike Leigh plots always stay under wraps.
• Michaela Cole The Christophers (Neon, April 10) AND Mother Mary (A24, April 17) but both films arrived in April
• Sarah Paulson Untitled Cody Fern Film (previously referred to as Mother Courage)
• Zendaya The Drama (A24, Apr 3)... but the movie was polarizing
• Zoey Deutch Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass (Jul 10) ...great reviews so far but it's a comedy