Best Actress Predix: Authors & Astronauts & Immigrants (oh my)

And princesses too! Actually I'm predicting neither Princess Grace (Nicole Kidman) nor Princess Diana (Naomi Watts) for the eventual shortlist though their names will undoubtedly continue to come up. Yes, the Best Actress Chart has arrived. 

Who wins ANOTHER Oscar this year? So many previous winners are back

My final shortlist is all Oscar winners -- which has only ever happened once (just last year in Supporting Actor ) but this is what my crystal ball is telling me so I obey. And anyway, it's a Previous-Actress-Winning Heavy year at least in terms of who got jobs headlining major motion pictures. Even lower in the charts there are a lot of Oscar winners, all told.  It's (maybe) that kind of year... though I could see a scenario where unOscared supporting chart players hop over to Lead Actress if they see a window and their roles are substantial enough (Adams? Harris? Winfrey?). And with 235 days left to go before Oscar nominations are announced, a lot could change: a quickly filmed or under-the-radar movie could hit it big on the fall festival circuit; holiday box office could shift focus around substantially at year's end; films could suddenly be moved to '2014 TBA' status.

Marion Cotillard will win Cannes Best Actress for... oh wait, people said this last year too and it didn't happenThe Wild Card
This time it's not a person but The Weinstein Co. themselves.  They've got more actress hopefuls than even they can handle since they're representing Grace of Monaco, The Immigrant, Philomena, August: Osage County and The Butler. (Does this clear the way for Sandra Bullock to win a second Oscar? I'm only mostly kidding) There is about a 1% chance that TWC will stay supportive of all of those films since they regular abandon their runts rather than nurturing them, to concentrate on the pick of the litter. Some of the ladies in question can generate some degree of media and internal industry interest even without puppet masters behind the scenes but not all of them. What do you think TWC will do when it's time to play favorites?  

Fun Trivia About The Top Ten on This Chart

• They have 47 acting nominations and 11 acting Oscars between them
• They range in age from 37 to 78 (will it really be a year skewing that mature?)
• 6 of them have competed directly with Meryl Streep for Oscar glory but only one, Sandra Bullock, has ever prevailed in head-to-head combat. (7 & 2 if you count Nicole winning the only Best Actress nomination from The Hours.)
• 3 Australians, 1 French, 3 Brits, 3 Americans

All First Wave Oscar Predictions
Index | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress |  Screenplays | Visuals | Sound | Animation 

Juli's Big October

147 days from now Julianne Moore will have not one, not two, but three movies opening in theaters. How exhausted is she going to be 148 days from now!? That's a lot of promo duties and red carpets in the first half of October.

poll by twiigs.com

Random Thoughts on Upcoming "Best Supporting Actress" Race

Being a month late to my usual "April Fool's" predictions has caused me a lot of behind-the-scenes strife. Trying to stare into the open future through a crystal ball when things are actually happening in the present overseas (i.e. Cannes) is incredibly ineffective. Next year I must be more prompt and buy a plane ticket. I have made a few adjustments on the charts mostly in regards to more research on American Hustle and Saving Mr Banks but also in regards to Cannes hits like All is Lost and Philomena (I know, I know -- it didn't show but it still had a great week!).

Carey sings in "Inside Lleywn Davis". The last time she sang onscreen ("Shame") critics fell madly in love but mysteriously zero awards traction happened. 

Cannes buzz
A note of caution to everyone taking each word out of Cannes like its holy scrit. Cannes can be like a magician's misdirect in regards to the Oscar race because for every Jean Dujardin and The Artist there are ten films and performances that get people hot and bothered there under those very special circumstances that don't go anywhere in the real world or, for our purposes, don't excite the mainstream sensibility of Oscar. And quite a few films each decade see their critical fates changed once they leave the festival circuit with its foolishly instant pronouncements of grandeurs and foibles. Take it all with a grain of salt or at least a whiff of the ocean-scented air. Especially if a new Coen Bros' film takes the Palme D'Or. Cannes always loves them so it's like Michael Haneke or the Dardenne Brothers taking a prize. What else did you expect?

But on to this afternoon's topic... 

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Those Who Have Gone "Before"

Hi all, it’s Tim, here on the eve of what is, by far, my most-anticipated summer release of 2013. Not, shockingly, The Hangover, Part III. Not even Epic. No, like most right-thinking people, 2013 for me is all about Before Midnight, the third film in one of cinema’s most unlikely series, in which we revisit lovers Celine (Julie Delpy) and Jesse (Ethan Hawke) every nine years to see what they’ve been up to. The first time we met them in Before Sunrise, they met by accident on a train into Vienna, then in Before Sunset they had an afternoon to walk around Paris, and in this third entry- I have no idea, I’m on completely spoiler lockdown with this film, to the level where I won’t even look at the poster. But I’m willing to guarantee that whatever they’re up to, it’s going to have some very deep resonance and profound truth to speak about the lifespan of romantic relationships.

For the benefit of anyone who hasn’t had the chance to see the earlier movies yet – please change that as soon as possible, I beg you – or to get series veterans riled up for its imminent return (like that’s even necessary), I wanted to share five reasons that, for me, the first two Before… movies are some of the finest romantic dramas in the history of cinema. [more...]

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Kidman in Cannes. Part 4.

Jose here. Late last night I found myself cursing at the heavens for not making Nicole as ubiquitous as Uma, Kate Beckinsale and Diane Kruger were during their own Cannes jury duties. Then she went and did this:
 

Who She Wore: Valentino. And not just Valentino, but the Valentino Anne Hathaway refused to wear to the Oscars (because Amanda Seyfried was wearing something similar...) ending up with the satin Nipplegate and that awkward PR thing the day after. Like they say, one person's garbage is another person's treasure and the truth is that Nicole could retire from red carpets forever and this look would still be talked about for decades to come. She even outdid Fan Bingbing!
Which Director She's Trying to Lure: I want to say Ang Lee, but that's only because he's there and I'm too distracted by the dress' prettiness to think harder.
What would Margot think of this: something about weddings? Really, the dress is impeding my ability to think. 

After the jump, more of Nicole in the dress and a look we forgot in Part 3...

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