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Index of Predictions
The 83rd Oscars, Celebrating the Films of 2010, Are History. Congratulations to MELISSA LEO.

WHO WON: Melissa Leo, The Fighter... a worthy choice for sure.
SHOULD'VE WIN: Jacki Weaver. The best performance, maybe even if you include the other categories.

Melissa Leo
THE FIGHTER
50 years old
56 films | 2nd nomination

wins: SAG, NY, Globes, BFCA & critics orgs
noms: OFCS

Helena Bonham-Carter
THE KING'S SPEECH
44 years old
40 films | 2nd nomination 

wins: BAFTA, BIFA
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA

 Amy Adams
THE FIGHTER
36 years old
26 films | 3rd nomination

wins: critics orgs
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA, OFCS, Satellite

Hailee Steinfeld
TRUE GRIT
14 years old
5 films | 1st nomination!

wins: OFCS and critics orgs
noms: SAG, BFC

Jacki Weaver
ANIMAL KINGDOM
63 years old
15 films | 1st nomination!

wins: NBR, LA, NY, Satellites plus 2 critics orgs
noms: Globes, BFCA, OFCS

Trivia: If she and Bale both win, it'll be the first blood relative duo to do so since Holly & Anna in THE PIANO (1993) and the first mother & son win since MY LEFT FOOT (1989)
Trivia: Her boyfriend Tim Burton is also currently Oscarless. Living director/Actress pairs where both have Oscars aren't that common. Two that do exist: Helen Mirren & Taylor Hackford and Joel Coen & Frances McDormand.  Are there others?
Trivia: Though people feel that she has racked up her nominations very quickly, it's actually normal for those with multiple nods to rack them up in a short time frame. Oscar gets little crushes.
Trivia:She is the ninth youngest nominee ever in this category (a smidgeon younger than Foster in Taxi Driver.) Of the youngest 10, 2 of them won (Anna Paquin and Tatum O'Neal). Patty Duke, another famous young winner was already 16. Trivia: Only 10 of the 157 female acting Oscars have ever gone to women in their 60s.  Katharine Hepburn won two of them. That said, evil matriarch are a favorite "type" in this category.
 
How'd They Get Nominated
43% Performance. Big, brassy, hard to miss.
24% Role:Alice is 'a real character' both biographically and personality wise
10% Electric chemistry with Christian Bale.
9% Precursors in lockstep
7% Frozen River
5% The Sisters.
2% She wants it. They want you to want it.
66% Triple Bait Role: Biographical  + Supportive Spouse + British Monarchy
14% Frontrunning film
8% Performance. Sly, warm and just what it needs to be.
6% "The Red Queen"
5% Sudden realization of decades of worth: She's so underrated!
1% Red Carpet Curio value
40% Quadruple Bait Role: Biographical + Supporting Girl +  "against type" casting  + hint of DeGlam.
36% Performance. That porch scene! (more...)
13% Celebrity. Oscar crushing for six years...
9% "
Isn't she going to win soon?" momentum and precursor love
2% 'I heard she was an  MTV Girl'
35% Role: Showy and sympathetic. And...
18% LEAD which never hurts in Supporting.
17% Performance.
15% Surprise blockbuster
8% Critical backing
5%Thank heaven for little girls. W'out them what would Oscar do
2% Old pro on the red carpet / campaign trailer despite being a newbie. 
54% Performance. Spectacular. Did justice to
17% ...a great Role. and that combo set in motion a
12% ...Grassroots campaign which brought
11% ...early traction and precursor devotion.
5% "You've done some bad things, sweetie" Catchphrases help.
1% AMPAS's Aussie contingency
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