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Gotham Noms- The Favourite, First Reformed, Hereditary

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

PREDICTIONS AS OF OCTOBER 16TH

Tier 1 - Prediction

(Statistics on these charts refer to directing category only and narrative features only (excluding docs, tv movies, shorts, etc) 

Alfonso Cuarón
56 yrs old | 8 films | 1 nom | 1 win in this category


ROMA
Netflix
Dec 14th
REVIEW

If it weren't for Netflix's relative greenness at Oscar campaigning at the late release date we could almost called this locked up. Can he win his second Oscar?

Damien Chazelle
33 yrs old | 4 films | 1 nom | 1 win in this category

FIRST MAN
Universal
Oct 12th
REVIEW

The Academy admires major technical achievements and they already really love this young wunderkind. He's the youngest Best Director winner ever.

Bradley Cooper

43 years old | debut as director


A STAR IS BORN
Warner Bros
Oct 5th
REVIEW

He was obviously observing filmmaking during his robust acting career because you'd never know this was a debut -- so assured!

Spike Lee
61 yrs old | 24 films | 1 Honorary Oscar (never nom'ed in this category)

BLACKKKLANSMAN
Focus
Aug 10th
REVIEW

Even if it doesn't end up a Best Picture nominee we think he still has a good shot given the recent Honorary statue and knowing they've never honored him in this category. It's his biggest hit in 12 years. And Focus is definitely campaigning.

Yorgos Lanthimos

45 yrs old | 7 films | never nom'ed in this category

THE FAVOURITE
Fox Searchlight 
Nov 23rd
REVIEW

His fanbase has been growing with practically every film and this looks like the one that will finally put him over -- more accessible without losing his distinct voice.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Ryan Coogler
32 yrs old | 3 films | never nominated

BLACK PANTHER
Disney/Marvel
Feb 16th

Probably more formidable in this category than people are expecting right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he boots out someone more 'expected' to reward him for the monumental cultural success of the picture.

Peter Farrelly
61 yrs old | 14 films | never nominated
GREEN BOOK

Universal
Nov 21st

Whoda thunk that the director of Dumb and Dumber and many even dumber comedies would have such a crowd pleaser that's also looking like such an Oscar contender. Can he break into this category?

Barry Jenkins
38 yrs old | 3 films | 1 nom in this category
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
REVIEW

Annapurna
Nov 30th

While his achievement will certainly be admired, will the fans be passionate to get him nomination #2 in this category with so many auteurial feats on hand this year. 

Rob Marshall
57 yrs old | 6 films | 1 nomination

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Disney
Dec 19th
TRAILER

Early industry buzz (albeit from biased sources) seems to think this is a bullseye and will be a smash hit. So you might see some movement in multiple Oscar categories but it will need to be a smash hit instantly... and respected, too, which is the tougher trick. 

Steve McQueen
48 yrs old | 4 films | 1 nom in this category

WIDOWS
Fox
Nov 16th
REVIEW

There will surely be those in the Academy impressed with this achievement -- like Lanthimos a much more mainstream breakthrough from an "art film" director.

 
Tier 3 - Long Shots

Adam McKay
50 yrs old | 7 films | 1 nom in this category

VICE
Annapurna
Dec 21st

He surprised with The Big Short so there wouldn't be a surprise factor to help him this time. The film will have to be really well loved for this to happen.

Marielle Heller
38 yrs old | 2 films | never nominated

CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Fox Searchlight
Oct 19th
REVIEW 

Given the need for gender parity in Hollywood, we think the directors branch will be more mindful moving forward. She's the best situated this year to be noticed.

Julian Schnabel
66 yrs old | 5 films | 1 nomination

AT ETERNITY'S GATE
CBS Films
Nov 16th

Schnabel isn't prolific but he sure loves the biopic genre. This time Van Gogh is the subject though the early praise has been mostly Best Actor focused. 

Clint Eastwood
88 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms and 2 wins *in this category*

THE MULE
Warner Bros
Dec 14th

If the film is great he'll rise quickly through the ranks as they won't have trouble convincing people to watch it and honor Clint again.

Pawel Pawlikowski
59 yrs old | 6 films | only recognized in foreign film category

COLD WAR
Amazon
Dec 21st

While many who see it are likely to admire it, December 21st is a late arrival to push a foreign director at them. That said he's already respected and the movie is a beauty.

 
Tier 3 - Other Directors of Interest With Films This Year

 

  • Ari Aster (debut feature) Hereditary
  • Bo Burnham (debut feature) Eighth Grade
  • Jon M Chu (6th film / breakthrough) Crazy Rich Asians
  • John Krasinski (third feature / breakthrough) -A Quiet Place
  • Josie Rourke (second feature) - Mary Queen of Scots
  • Jacques Audiard (1 foreign film nomination) -The Sisters Brothers
  • Debra Granik (1 nom for writing) - Leave No Trace
  • Karyn Kusama (never nominated) - Destroyer
  • Mimi Leder (never nominated) - On the Basis of Sex
  • Felix Van Groeningen (1 foreign film nomination) - Beautiful Boy
  • Robert Zemeckis (1 nom/1 win) -Welcome to Marwen