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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

DECEMBER 14th CHART


Tier 1 - Predicted Powerhouses

Guillermo del Toro

53 yrs old | 10 films
never nom'ed in directing
THE SHAPE OF WATER 
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 8th

wins: LA
noms: Critics Choice,  Globe

Certain to win points for having such a distinct vision. He's easy to like and the film is easy to love and that can go a long way.

Chris Nolan

47 yrs old | 10 films
never nom'ed in directing
DUNKIRK
(Warner Bros)
July 21st

wins: Chicago
noms:
Critics Choice , Globe

 

A shift from genre films to a war epic should nail down those final votes and this nomination has been a long time coming.

Steven Spielberg
70 yrs old | 30 films
7 noms | 2 wins in directing
THE POST
(Fox)
Dec 22nd

wins: --
noms: Critics Choice, Globe

Though they should make more room for a less abundantly rewarded auteur, the timeliness of the subject matter should put him over the line here.

Jordan Peele
38 yrs old | debut!
never nominated
GET OUT
(Universal)
Feb 24th

wins: NBR (Debut), NY (Debut), + 1 critics group
noms: Spirit, Critics Choice , Image

He's got a headstart and early indications suggest Get Out is winning multiple nods. That said a screenplay nomination is still a safer bet for him

Martin McDonagh

47 yrs old | 3 films
never nom'ed in directing 
THREE BILLBOARDS...
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 13th

wins: --
noms:
Critics Choice, Globe

A unique voice but, as with Jordan Peele, the danger is that they'll think of his thematically potent film as a "screenplay" triumph first and foremost. Could happen though.

 
Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Luca Guadagnino
46 years old | 5 films
never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
(SPC)
Nov 24th

wins: LA
noms: Spirit,Critics Choice

One of the most exciting directors working -- the film is campaigning hard but will this branch (which likes large scale efforts) find it too intimate?... or too gay?

Sean Baker

46 yrs old | 6 films
never nominated
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
(A24)
Oct 6th

wins: NY
noms: Spirit

He's been doing amazing work for years but his marginalized voices films have always been more niche than Oscar can handle. Can A24 boost his profile quick enough ?

Greta Gerwig
34 yrs old | debut!
never nominated
LADY BIRD
(A24)
Nov 10th

wins: NBR , LA (New Generation)
noms: Critics Choice

We're already watching this film be heralded for everything BUT its fine direction... which is annoying because its so confidently helmed

 

Dee Rees
40 yrs old | 2 films
never nominated
MUDBOUND
(Netflix)
Nov 17th

wins: 1 critics
noms: Image Awards

That Netflix connection may hurt her if enough voters view this as a TV film and the playing field unfair. Still the lure of a "first" and the love of what she's pulled off with her ensemble could make her an appealing choice at the top of enough ballots

Paul Thomas Anderson
47 yrs old | 8 films
1 nom *in this category
PHANTOM THREAD
(Focus)
Dec 25th

wins: Boston
noms: --

Curiously never nominated despite Oscar liking his films. This one's got enough cinematic energy that he's got a clear if hardly slam dunk shot.

 

Tier 3 - Probable Vote Siphoners for a variety of reasons

  • Alexander Payne, Downsizing
  • Darren Aronofsky Mother!
  • Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World Globe Nom
  • Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

Tier 4 Looked good on paper OR on screen but traction never took

  • Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
  • Sofia Coppola The Beguiled
  • Kathryn Bigelow Detroit
  • Todd Haynes Wonderstruck
  • Joe Wright Darkest Hour
  • Patty Jenkins Wonder Woman
  • The Safdie Brothers Good Time Spirit Nominee