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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AND THE OSCAR NOMINEES ARE...

Paul Thomas Anderson
47 yrs old | 8 films
2nd nom *in this category
PHANTOM THREAD
(Focus)
Dec 25th

previous wins: Boston

Guillermo del Toro
53 yrs old | 10 films
1st nomination  in directing
THE SHAPE OF WATER 
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 8th

previous wins: LA  DGACritics Choice,  Globe

Greta Gerwig
34 yrs old | debut film (as solo director)
1st nomination !
LADY BIRD
(A24)
Nov 10th

previous wins: NSFC, NBR , LA (New Generation)

Chris Nolan
47 yrs old | 10 films
1st nomination in directing
DUNKIRK
(Warner Bros)
July 21st

previous wins: Chicago

Jordan Peele
38 yrs old | debut film
1st nomination ! 
GET OUT
(Universal)
Feb 24th

previous wins: NBR (Debut), NY (Debut), Image

 

VOTE EVERY DAY!

 

 

 

TRIVIA ALERT

• This is the first time in history wherein ALL of the Director nominees also wrote or co-wrote their films

• Greta Gerwig is only the 5th woman ever nominated for Best Director.

• Jordan Peele scored 3 nominations (Pic/Dir/Screenplay) for his debut directorial effort. That's quite a feat (Other men who did it were Orson Welles in the 1940s with Citizen Kane and Warren Beatty in the 1970s with Heaven Can Wait).

• Lady Bird getting a nomination is rare though not unprecendented and not just due to Gerwig's gender. Various high school movies have been nominated here and there for writing or acting (though not at all regularly) but the only other directors nominated for directing a high school-related movie are Marc Robson for Peyton Place (1957), American Graffiti (1973), Breaking Away (1979), and Jason Reitman for Juno (2007)

         
 
How'd They Get Nominated?
35% He's Paul Thomas Anderson and though The Master wasn't about him, everyone knows he is a Master.
25% Recency effect and Spielberg's expected slot opened up
13% Prestige just emanating off of it: execution + milieu
10% Puncturing of male creative ego is a very now topic if you stop to consider it
10% Unexpected humor
5% DDL's retirement
2% "we're sorry you've never won!"
40% So completely delToroesque that no one else could have possibly made it. In other words major director appeal
20% Lockstep precursors
15% Virtuoso fairy tale prologue aggressively DIRECTED for mood setting
10% Sally Hawkins overachieving (single-handedly selling both sides of romance)
8% Director's branch really into Mexican filmmakers lately
3% Pan's Labyrinth
28% Long-overdue drive to appreciate female talent was in the air
22%
Gerwig's empathy, humor, and gift at guiding her cast
20% Significant precursor / critics boosting
18% Actor's branch appeal - that Ronan / Metcalf chemistry ❤︎
5% Home aka California-ache.
4% Surprise "what can't you do?" factor. Great Actress. Great writer. Now this?
3% Oh, and it's quite funny
50% Scale, ambition, execution, and the usual "how did he manage that?" awe within that filmography
16% mainstream smash w/ auds and critics
10% WWII = one of Oscar's fav topics
9% precursor lock-step approval
7% memorable trifurcated gimmick: land, air, sea
6% "we're sorry for those past director snubs"
2% "you can almost see it... home" (aka AMPAS Anglophilia)
38% the zeitgeist surprise of 2017
20% precursors / critics
13  "the sunken place" - such a pliable meme-worthy hook
10% Early release for something that they needed to marinatie in
8% terrific genre execution... not that they're normally into that.
7% new(ish) Academy
4% ability to laugh at themselves. That Obama line probably uttered by 80% of AMPAS prev.
 
WHO WAS LEFT OUT?
Martin McDonagh enjoyed a lot of precursor success including the ever important DGA nomination. But he didn't quite make the Oscar list. Other prominent directors this year with awards buzz or some initial heat included Sean Baker (The Florida Project), Steven Spielberg (The Post), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Dee Rees (Mudbound), Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World), Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049), and if you stretch back to Cannes (rarely an Oscar bellwether) Sofia Coppola for The Beguiled.
 
WHO WILL WIN?
Guillermo del Toro is headed for this Oscar whether his film wins or not. The season has been with him, eagerly rewarding him for his now familiar but distinctive vision. 
 
SHOULD WIN?
Still thinking this one over...