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The Turning Point (1977)

"This film is like Beaches long lost relative." -Mark

"I've said it before and I'll say it again, this film's 2 Best Actress nods should've gone to 3 Women" - Yavor

"I really loved Tom Skerritt in this. I think he deserved a nomination for Supporting Actor." -Tyler

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

JULY PREDICTIONS

 

 

Statistics on this chart reflect ONLY the directing category. Many directors are multi-hyphenates be it screenwriting, producing or acting. (B&W photos signify former champions in this category)

 

TIER 1 - PREDICTED 5
I'm opting to predict mostly fresh blood in the category this year.  At least for now when anything feels possible. This is of course uncommon so I had to have one returning champ in there. Let's take Ang Lee again.

 

Nate Parker
BIRTH OF A NATION
36 yrs old | directorial debut
never nominated

The media story is already in his favor. His nomination to lose.

Damien Chazelle
LA LA LAND
31 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

If they like it as much as Whiplash, he's totally in. Momentum.

Denis Villeneuve
ARRIVAL
48 yrs old | 8th feature
never nominated in this category

Sicario was yet another reminder of how solid his gifts are. Will this be the one?

Jeff Nichols
LOVING
37 yrs old | 5th feature
never nominated 

He's been steadily rising in estimation. This looks like the one, actually.

Ang Lee
BILLY LYNN'S LONG HALFTIME WALK
61 yrs old | 13th feature | 3 noms | 2 wins

One of Oscar favorites and one of ours. They love a tech challenge met.

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Martin Scorsese
SILENCE
73 yrs old | 24th feature | 8 noms | 1 wins

He's always a threat but it feels like a newbie year to me.

 

Garth Davis
LION
??? yrs old | debut feature
never nominated 

If this film really moves people, watch out. He did great work on Top of the Lake.

Clint Eastwood
SULLY
85 yrs old | 35th feature | 4 noms | 2 wins

He's always a threat but will this film be exciting enough?

Denzel Washington
FENCES
61 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

Has he improved since his first two pictures as a director? Material is great

John Lee Hancock
THE FOUNDER
59 yrs old | 6th feature
never nominated 

Hancock feels like someone who will happen with Oscar at some point. Mainstream savvy.

 

Tier 3 - But Watch Out For...

Kenneth Lonergan
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
53 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

If critics rally perhaps

Robert Zemeckis
ALLIED
63 yrs old | 18th feature
1 nom | 1 win 

If he regains his mojo

Paul Verhoeven
ELLE
yrs old | features
never nom'ed in this category

If directors branch is feeling iconoclastic as they occasionally do


Ben Younger
BLEED FOR THIS
yrs old | 3 features
never nom'ed

If this film is a bigger deal than currently expected

Whit Stillman
LOVE & FRIENDSHIP
yrs old | feature
never nom'ed in this category

if Globes fall hard for this film in the comedy division

Tier 4 - Other directors to watch for this year. You never know...
Mike Mills - 20th Century Women, Morten Tyldum - Passengers, Tate Taylor - The Girl on the Train, Oliver Stone - Snowden, John Cameron Mitchell - How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Derek Cianfrance - The Light Between Oceans, Stephen Frears - Florence Foster Jenkins, Andrew Dosunmu - Beat-Up Little Seagull, David Frankel - Collateral Beauty, Colin Trevorrow - The Book of Henry, John Madden - Miss Sloane

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter
The following films, of interest in direction though these are not endorsements per se, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

John Carney
SING STREET

Daniels
SWISS ARMY MAN

Yorgos Lanthimos
THE LOBSTER

Matt Ross
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

Robert Eggers
THE WITCH