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What did YOU see this weekend?

 

Elle. Basically the same movie as The Piano Teacher but sillier. Huppert is great, but when is she not? -Jonathan

The Edge of Seventeen because I needed something light and fun. So delightful, and anchored by a wonderful Hailee Steinfeld performance. - Marina

 

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

December 4th Predictions

 

Statistics on this chart reflect ONLY the directing category. Many directors are multi-hyphenates be it screenwriting, producing or acting. (B&W photos signify former champions in this category)

 

TIER 1 - PREDICTED 5
I'm opting to predict ALL fresh blood in the category this year. This is of course uncommon but it feels like a newbie year to me.

Damien Chazelle
LA LA LAND
31 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

Post Whiplash, and with a ridiculously charming AND ambitious follow up? He's totally in.

Barry Jenkins
MOONLIGHT
37 yrs old | 2nd feature | never nominated

Prizes
NBR Winner, NYFCC Winner, LAFCA Winner

Gotham WinnerSpirit NominationCritics Choice Nom,

Another film that bears an exciting fresh voiced auteurial stamp. But will it be too off-brand for Oscar? They're often stingy with new Auteurs for their first handful of great films

Denis Villeneuve
ARRIVAL
48 yrs old | 8th feature
never nominated in this category

Prizes

Critics Choice Nom

Sicario, Prisoners and now Arrival? He keeps reminding us of how solid his gifts are. He has momentum so will this be the one?

Denzel Washington
FENCES
61 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

Much improved from his previous films. He serves the material well by staying out of its way. 

Kenneth Lonergan
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
53 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nom'ed in this category 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

If critics rally but sometimes they want technical achievements rather than soulful acting pictures. No Spirit nomination could be a sign.

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Pablo Larrain
JACKIE
40 yrs old | 7th feature
never nominated in this category

Prizes
Spirit Nomination

The picture feels like a "director's picture" despite the powerhouse central performance. And the great Chilean Oscar submission Neruda is bonus points, here.

 

Jeff Nichols
LOVING
37 yrs old | 5th feature
never nominated 

Prizes

Spirit Nomination

He's been steadily rising in estimation. This is the one that will make a big difference for his career, whether or not he's nominated.

Martin Scorsese
SILENCE
73 yrs old | 24 features | 8 noms | 1 wins

Prizes
tba 

He's always a threat but 2016 feels like a newbie year to me. To you?

Clint Eastwood
SULLY
86 yrs old | 35 features
4 noms/2 wins in this category

Prizes
tba

If they need their beloved in the mix and Scorsese isn't enough comfort. Sully's big hit status can't hurt

David Mackenzie
HELL OR HIGH WATER
50 yrs old | 9 features
never nominated

Prizes
tba

Like Garth Davis who he just replaced on this chart, he needs to up his profile if he hopes to compete against the more famous directors gunning for attention. But people do love the movie and it's very well executed

 

Tier 3 -Long Shots & Vote Siphoning From... 

 

Mike Mills - 20th Century Women
Garth Davis -
Lion
David Mackenzie - Hell or High Water
Tom Ford
- Nocturnal Animals
Mira Nair - Queen of Katwe
Whit Stillman - Love & Friendship
Theodore Melfi -Hidden Figures
Stephen Frears - Florence Foster Jenkins 
Robert Eggers The Witch Spirit Nom (First Feature)
Matt Ross Captain Fantastic
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Lobster
John Carney - Sing Street
Nate Parker - Birth of a Nation
Maren Ade - Toni Erdmann EFA Nomination
Andrea Arnold - American Honey  Spirit Nomination, BIFA 
Park Chan-Wook - The Handmaiden 

Mel Gibson
HACKSAW RIDGE
60 yrs old | 5 features | 1 nom | 1 win in this category 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

His sado maschism gets in the way of this story of pacifism in war time but a lot of people respond to its grandiosity and faith-based story

Paul Verhoeven
ELLE
78 yrs old | 16 features
never nom'ed in this category

Prizes
EFA Nomination

If directors branch is feeling iconoclastic - they rarely do these days but there are surprises