BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTION

Tier 1 - The Biggest Deals?

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu
3 noms | 2 wins*
DIGGER
(Warner Bros)
Oct 2

Oscar voters are obsessed with him, so, he's probably in unless the film faceplants

Christopher Nolan
2 noms | 1 win*
THE ODYSSEY
(Universal )
July 17

It took the directing branch a long time to come around but now he's in the afterglow stage post Oppenheimer so another quick nod is likely.

Denis Villeneuve
1 nomination*
DUNE PART THREE
(Warner Bros)
Dec 18

Will they want to reward him for the whole franchise for the final (?) trip to the sci-fi desert? If the film delivers, yes.

Cristian Mungiu
never nominated
FJORD
(Neon)
Date tba

It's tough to say if the directing branch will go for Mungiu's very Romanian new wave observational distance style but the Palme d'Or prestige will definitely help.

Tony Gilroy
1 nomination*
BEHEMOTH!
(Searchlight)
Date tba

If Searchlight handles this well, early buzz suggests it could really grab people. Michael Clayton was almost 20 years ago. Time for a Gilroy Oscar comeback?

Los Javis
never nominated
THE BLACK BALL
(Netflix)
Date tba

Will the directing prize at Cannes (albeit shared) make them real contenders? Or will this reported triumph of an epic be too queer for this Oscar branch?

Martin McDonagh
1 nomination*
WILD HORSE NINE
(Searchlight)
Nov 6

If it's a hit with audiences and not just critics, watch out.

James Gray
never nominated
PAPER TIGER
(Neon)
Date tba

Will he ever break through with Oscar voters?

Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
never nominated
PROJECT HAIL MARY
(Amazon/ MGM)
Mar 20

They have a curious awards history but surely this film will impress some fellow directors. But enough of them?

Georgia Oakley
never nominated
SENSE & SENSIBILITY
(Focus)
Oct 16

Can she get around memories of Ang Lee's classic? Her debut (Blue Jean) was very good so... maybe?

Aaron Sorkin
never nominated*
THE SOCIAL RECKONING
(Sony)
Oct 9

While Oscar loves his screenwriting he has yet to show any flair for the visual as a director. Will he clear that hurdle this time?

Jessie Eisenberg
never nominated*
THE DEBUT
(A24)
Date TBA

His most recent film A Real Pain surely came close to a Best Picture nod. Can he break into Best Director this time?

Robert Eggers
never nominated WERWULF
(Focus)
Dec 25

Eggers feels like he's going to happen at some point but werewolf movies struggle in terms of awardage.

Peter Farrely
never nominated*
I PLAY ROCKY
(Amazon / MGM)
Nov 13

Can he win the dad film votes this year for this movie about making the classic 1976 picture?

Jordan Firstman
never nominated
CLUB KID
(A24)
Date TBA

The gay creator's dramedy about an aging club promoter discovering he had a 10 year old child was an unlikely sensation at Cannes -- will that transfer to mainstream awards attention?

Tier 4 - Other Directors of 2026 

Previously Nominated Directors

• David Fincher - The Adventures of Cliff Booth
• Emerald Fennell -Wuthering Heights
• Joel Coen - Jack of Spades
• Mike Leigh - Tender Loving Care
• Paul Greengrass-The Uprising
• Pawel Pawlikowski - Fatherland
• Pedro Almodóvar -Bitter Christmas
• Ridley Scott - The Dog Stars
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi - All of a Sudden
• Steven Spielberg - Disclosure Day
• Tom McCarthy - The Statement (or Untitled)

Never Nominated (For Directing)

• Alice Birch - Sweetsick (feature directorial debut)
• Antoine Fuqua -Michael
• Arie & Chuki Esiri - Clarrisa
• Beth de Araujo - Josephine
• Chloe Domont - A Place in Hell
• David Robert Mitchell - End of Oak Street
• Florian Zeller - Bunker
• Ira Sachs - The Man I Love
• Jane Schoenbrun - Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
• John Carney - Power Ballad
• Kane Parsons - Backrooms (feature directorial debut)
• Lance Oppenheim - Primetime (narrative debut)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal - The Bride!
• Matt Johnson - Tony
• Michael Sarnoski - Death of Robin Hood
• Sian Heder* - Being Heumann
• Tom Ford - Cry to Heaven
• Werner Herzog - Bucking Fastard

BEST CASTING PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - The Biggest Deals?

Francine Maisler
1 nomination
DIGGER
(Warner Bros)
Oct 2

That high profile loss last year for Sinners could help if she snags an immediate follow up nomination

John Papsidera
never nominated
THE ODYSSEY
(Universal )
July 17

Will they applaud him for getting every single famous actor into the same film?

Sarah Finn
never nominated
WILD HORSE NINE
(Searchlight)
Nov 6

Eva Leira & Yolanda Serrano
never nominated
THE BLACK BALL
(Netflix)
Date tba

Douglas Aibel
never nominated*
THE DEBUT
(A24)
Date TBA

Nina Gold
1 nomination
CLARISSA
(Neon)
Date TBA

Kharmel Cochrane
never nominated
SENSE & SENSIBILITY
(Focus)
Oct 16

Unknown
never nominated
I PLAY ROCKY
(Amazon | MGM)
Nov 13

Carmen Cuba
never nominated
BEHEMOTH!
(Searchlight)
Date tba

Carmen Cuba
never nominated
CLUB KID
(A24)
Date TBA

Hannah Chocron Foldoy
never nominated
FJORD
(Neon)
Date tba

Nicole Abellera
never nominated
PROJECT HAIL MARY
(Amazon/ MGM)
Mar 20

Coralie Amedeo
never nominated
ALL OF A SUDDEN
(Neon)
Date tba

Douglas Aibel
never nominated
PAPER TIGER
(Neon)
Date tba

Tier 4 - Other Possibilities

Previously Nominated Directors

• Francine Maisler- Dune Part Three
• Jennifer Venditti - Beford Park / The Moment
• Nina Gold - The Death of Robin Hood / The Great Beyond / Switzerland / Tender Loving Care

Other Casting Directors With 2026 Films

• Allison Estrin - The Statement
• Carmen Cuba - Alone At Dawn / A Long Winter
• Cindy Toland - Disclosure Day
• Daniel Hubbard - The Uprising
• Douglas Aibel - The Bride!
• Kharmel Cochrane - Bunker / Good Sex / The Drama / Werwulf / Wuthering Heights
• Sarah Finn - Avengers Doomsday / Spider-Man Brand New Day
• Victor Jenkins - Cry to Heaven
• Victoria Thomas -Michael