Welcome

The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. Also loves cats. All material herein is written and copyrighted by him, or by a member of our amazing team as noted.

Like The Film Experience on Facebook

Powered by Squarespace
What'cha Looking For?
Comment Fun

Comment Du Jour
Foreign Oscar Watch
71 films now submitted 

"I love the Foreign Language Film race and love reading the developments." - Edward L

Subscribe

 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 23rd POST-FESTIVAL PREDICTIONS

 

 

Statistics on this chart reflect ONLY the directing category. Many directors are multi-hyphenates be it screenwriting, producing or acting. (B&W photos signify former champions in this category)

 

TIER 1 - PREDICTED 5
I'm opting to predict mostly fresh blood in the category this year. This is of course uncommon so I had to have one returning champ in there. 

 

Damien Chazelle
LA LA LAND
31 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

Post Whiplash, and with a ridiculously charming AND ambitious follow up? He's totally in.

Ang Lee
BILLY LYNN'S LONG HALFTIME WALK
61 yrs old | 13th feature | 3 noms | 2 wins

One of Oscar's favorite directors and one of ours, too. They love a tech challenge met and he's got such amazing range.

Denis Villeneuve
ARRIVAL
48 yrs old | 8th feature
never nominated in this category

Sicario was yet another reminder of how solid his gifts are. Will this be the one?

Pablo Larrain
JACKIE
40 yrs old | 7th feature
never nominated 

The picture feels like a "director's picture" despite the powerhouse central performance. And the great Chilean Oscar submission "Neruda" is bonus points, here.

Kenneth Lonergan
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
53 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

If critics rally perhaps but sometimes they want more technical achievements rather than soulful acting pictures.

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Jeff Nichols
LOVING
37 yrs old | 5th feature
never nominated 

He's been steadily rising in estimation. This looks like the one, actually, to make a big difference for his career.

Garth Davis
LION
??? yrs old | debut feature
never nominated 

If this film really moves people, watch out. He did great work on Top of the Lake.

Barry Jenkins
MOONLIGHT
??? yrs old | 2nd feature | never nominated

Another film that bears an exciting fresh voiced auteurial stamp. But will it be too off-brand for Oscar? They're often stingy with new Auteurs for their first handful of great films

Denzel Washington
FENCES
61 yrs old | 3rd feature
never nominated in this category 

Has he improved since his first two pictures as a director? Material is great

Nate Parker
BIRTH OF A NATION
36 yrs old | directorial debut
never nominated

The media story was initially in his favor. That's no longer true though he's trying to course correct with long interviews.

 

Tier 3 -Long Shots

Martin Scorsese
SILENCE
73 yrs old | 24 features | 8 noms | 1 wins

He's always a threat but it feels like a newbie year to me.

Mira Nair 
QUEEN OF KATWE
59 yrs old | 10 features | never nominated in this category (1 foreign film nod for India)

Will Disney really get behind this since people love it for an Oscar campaign?

Clint Eastwood
SULLY
86 yrs old | 35 features
4 noms/2 wins in this category

If they need their beloved in the mix. Sully's big hit status doesn't hurt

Tom Ford
NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
yrs old | 2nd feature
never nom'ed in this category

 If it continues to hypnotize people in regular release

Paul Verhoeven
ELLE
78 yrs old | 16 features
never nom'ed in this category

If directors branch is feeling iconoclastic - they rarely do these days but there are surprises

Tier 4 -  Vote Siphoning from... ?
John Lee Hancock, The Founder, Mike Mills - 20th Century Women, Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures, Morten Tyldum, Passengers, Robert Zemeckis - Allied, Tate Taylor - The Girl on the Train, Stephen Frears - Florence Foster Jenkins 

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter
The following films, of interest in direction though these are not endorsements per se, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

John Carney
SING STREET

 

Whit Stillman
LOVE AND FRIENDSHIP

 

Yorgos Lanthimos
THE LOBSTER

 

Matt Ross
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

Robert Eggers
THE WITCH