Oscar Predix: Which actresses will receive their first Oscar nomination this coming season?
Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 6:04PM by Nathaniel R
Rose Byrne, Ayo Edebiri, and Renata Reinsve
We're almost done with the first round predictions for the Oscar charts. Today, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and the question most prominent on our minds is which women will have "Oscar Nominee" after their names forever more? It's hard to tell this far out but we have some inkling of the possibilities...
In Best Actress Rose Byrne and Renata Reinsve have already won raves for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Sentimental Value, respectively, at early festivals. Rose has the advantage of being underrewarded for a long time now while Renata has the advantage of a key prestige film that could score big in multiple categories (especially Best International Film and Best Original Screenplay) if it catches on. Other actresses who would be first-timers if it happened for them this year include Dakota Johnson (for Materialists if the A24 hit is remembered fondly come year end) and Emma Mackey who could potentially have a major breakout year (she's starring in two arthouse releases Hot Milk and Alpha and at the end of the year a new James L Brooks movie, Ella McKay). Of course they'll have to fight off previous nominees like Cynthia Erivo, Amy Adams, Amanda Seyfried, and Jessie Buckley as well as previous winners like Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence, Olivia Colman, and Emma Stone to succeed. What'cha think?
Our crystal ball on Best Supporting Actress is much cloudier with nothing feeling quite right as a lineup of five goes... part of which is the annual problem of understanding that Best Picture and Lead Acting heat really helps supporting players, whatever their roles, and also not truly knowing what their roles are like just yet and how much screentime they'll have. That's why we're betting on Ayo Edeberi (After the Hunt) because the role looks like it might be quite large and she has considerable momentum in terms of being a highly in demand actor with awards already under her belt (if only for television at this point). Two films Sentimental Value and One Battle After Another could score double-nods for two first time nominees in the category if the films prove to be major players across the board. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is an intriguing case. The story, from what we can gather, is focused on two men / mortal enemies (Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn) but it's reportedly about three hours long so there's a chance that three different actresses could pop if they have enough screen time. Early reports suggests that Regina Hall (underrewarded) plays the former lover of both Leo & Sean while Teyana Taylor (so strong in A Thousand and One) is Leo's pregnant girlfriend. Chase Infiniti, in her film debut, could also be a factor because Oscar loves a discovery; She gets several shots in the trailer indicating that her role isn't necessarily teeny-tiny.
That said, we have to be honest that the film feels like a true wild card despite how regularly Paul Thomas Anderson has been honored in some way with Oscar nominations. For one it's reportedly a comedy with multiple action setpieces (not Oscar's usual thing) and for the other, his films have become increasingly zeroed in on leading characters only despite their lengthy running times. Even the films with teeming casts don't cede much cameratime to supporting players (think of Laura Dern's blink and you'll miss her role in The Master, Bradley Cooper's celebrated but very short performance in Licorice Pizza, and try to remember ANYONE but Paul and Daniel from There Will Be Blood despite its epic length). In short we're a long long way from PTA's early breaktout pictures like Boogie Nights and Magnolia wherein multiple actors were given all sorts of scenery to chew on and won major career boosts from their efforts.
What are you expecting in the female acting categories this year?
Reader Comments (21)
Amanda was nominated for Mank in Supporting Actress, so wouldn't be her first nomination. Excited for SO many of these films.
This year's female acting category is still a mystery for geometry dash jump
It will be odd if Emily Blunt makes "nominated for wife of protagonist" her thing.
Zoey Deutch and Margaret Qualley
@ Julian
First nomination in this category.
Nina Hoss in Hedda, playing a traditionally male pivotal supporting role. Also, Imogen Poots and Kathryn Hunter in that same film, which premieres at TIFF.
Think you are right too early to tell
At the moment i'm feeling these could be in the mix
Edeberi probably but it could be just the Julia show
Paltrow they lurve comebacks
Fanning it's time an Emily Blunt Oppenheimer type nod
Blunt she's got that first one out of the away and this film looks like it will be major,? lead
Watson i'd love for her to get another nod,I suspect the roles tiny though
Curtis nearly made it last year and she's well liked and campaigns hard
Stone has she got the Jodie Foster curse
Demi to follow up last year
Dern a follow up nomination to her win seems very likely in her future
Lopez if the press forgive her and Oscar doesn't get all snooty again
Close it almost happened for Janelle and wouldn't it be good to see her win
Ibsdotter if the film is an across the board player and they love it
Morton,Spacek and Swinton really deserve another nomination
Not Grande or Erivo both had their moment playing the same character last year,spread the love,this not the TV awards you have.
Reinsve seems lockish even at the point
Mackey release date was moved to a prime Oscar release,does it bode well,the JLC effect
Foster would be nice
Seyfried I could see her winning the Globe for this
Roberts Yes Yes Yes seems a sure thing,she is Julia and beloved
Buckley roles seems great on paper and Zhao directed Frances to a 3rd
Blunt if she goes lead and it's likely she will
Byrne film will need a HUGE push
Lawrence a surprise snub after showing up everywhere,we shall see
Adams I couldn't bear to see her lose again
Squibb Nope,Thelma didn't catch on and I don't see this one doin it either
Johnson I want to be invited to her Birthday party
Colman Golden Globe Mirren type nod.
Lange movie is stuck in limbo
Hathaway very doubtful
Sydney Sweeeny and Lucy Lui are the two people I could see emerging as real players and reviews are already good for Rosemead.
I predict One Battle After Another is going to flop very hard,this year's Amsterdam and they cooled on Anderson last time round.
@ Frank Zappa
Then why is Jessie Buckley mentioned as a previous nominee, when she's only been nominated in supporting? It's obviously a goof, but oh well, who remembers MANK anyway lmao.
@ Wae Mest
Yes, one of those mentions is inconsistent. Only Nathaniel knows for sure. ;-)
Thin years can mean surprises- mostly pockets of enthusiasm. Maybe someone like Mia Goth gets in for Frankenstein? If Sinners is going to be a big player maybe both women get in supporting?
Or maybe Ariana Grande sweeps supporting. If the ceremony last year was held at a later date, I think she might have ended up taking the award since Emilia Perez kept falling further from grace. Timing is important.
Wae, Frank, Julian -- it was a copy and paste error, FIXED.
TomG -- uff. I guess I could see it happening for Ariana Grande (who I love in the role) but i'm just praying it doesnt because I live in dread of Oscars becoming the Emmys and more and more movies coming out in two parts to make more money.
It still boggles my mind every time I'm reminded that Tilda Swinton only has one Oscar nomination (granted, she won, but still).
Pamela Anderson for Rosebush Pruning (Karim Aïnouz). She plays the mother of the main character. In the original film (Fists in the Pocket, 1965), the character was very strong. Maybe this filme will be presented in Venice
The After the Hunt script is online and it's quite good. The Ayo Edebiri part is big enough and she goes through a lot that could play up her strenghts. It's mostly the Julia show, but the roles of Ayo and Garfield could stand out as well. What gives me doubt is Luca Guadagnino, who's not very interested in making Academy friendly films.
Tessa Thompson in Hedda!
I knew Nina Hoss was in Hedda, but Kathryn Hunter too?
I’m enthusiastic for Lead and Supporting for this. The film is going to show at TIFF in Toronto.
Also Zoey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague is an actress that has been getting better and better (without much fanfare yet).
As mentioned Amanda Seyfried is displaying great skills. I really liked her in this year’s Seven Veils.
Is Amanda Peet on anyone’s radar for Fantasy Life? Got some very strong reviews out of SWSW.
Thank you for posting that it could be just the thing to give inspiration to someone who needs it! Keep up the great work.
dog barking
As a '90s bitch, I am happy to see Gwyneth and Julia back, especially with such good directors.
I'm rooting for Regina Hall, she really does deserve more recognition.
I get powerful Alicia Vikander vibes from Renate Reinsve...not a compliment, sorry!
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