Oscar Predix: Which actresses will receive their first Oscar nomination this coming season?

by Nathaniel R

Rose Byrne, Ayo Edebiri, and Renata Reinsve

We're almost done with the first round predictions for the Oscar charts. Today, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress and the question most prominent on our minds is which women will have "Oscar Nominee" after their names forever more? It's hard to tell this far out but we have some inkling of the possibilities...

In Best Actress Rose Byrne and Renata Reinsve have already won raves for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Sentimental Value, respectively, at early festivals. Rose has the advantage of being underrewarded for a long time now while Renata has the advantage of a key prestige film that could score big in multiple categories (especially Best International Film and Best Original Screenplay) if it catches on. Other actresses who would be first-timers if it happened for them this year include Amanda Seyfried (for the original period musical Ann Lee), Dakota Johnson (for Materialists if the A24 hit is remembered fondly come year end) and Emma Mackey who could potentially have a major breakout year (she's starring in two arthouse releases Hot Milk and Alpha and at the end of the year a new James L Brooks movie, Ella McKay). Of course they'll have to fight off previous nominees like Cynthia Erivo, Amy Adams, and Jessie Buckley as well as previous winners like Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence, Olivia Colman, and Emma Stone to succeed. What'cha think?

Our crystal ball on Best Supporting Actress is much cloudier with nothing feeling quite right as a lineup of five goes... part of which is the annual problem of understanding that Best Picture and Lead Acting heat really helps supporting players, whatever their roles, and also not truly knowing what their roles are like just yet and how much screentime they'll have. That's why we're betting on Ayo Edeberi (After the Hunt) because the role looks like it might be quite large and she has considerable momentum in terms of being a highly in demand actor with awards already under her belt (if only for television at this point). Two films Sentimental Value and One Battle After Another could score double-nods for two first time nominees in the category if the films prove to be major players across the board. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is an intriguing case. The story, from what we can gather, is focused on two men / mortal enemies (Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn) but it's reportedly about three hours long so there's a chance that three different actresses could pop if they have enough screen time. Early reports suggests that Regina Hall (underrewarded) plays the former lover of both Leo & Sean while Teyana Taylor (so strong in A Thousand and One) is Leo's pregnant girlfriend. Chase Infiniti, in her film debut, could also be a factor because Oscar loves a discovery; She gets several shots in the trailer indicating that her role isn't necessarily teeny-tiny.

That said, we have to be honest that the film feels like a true wild card despite how regularly Paul Thomas Anderson has been honored in some way with Oscar nominations. For one it's reportedly a comedy with multiple action setpieces (not Oscar's usual thing) and for the other, his films have become increasingly zeroed in on leading characters only despite their lengthy running times. Even the films with teeming casts don't cede much cameratime to supporting players (think of Laura Dern's blink and you'll miss her role in The Master, Bradley Cooper's celebrated but very short performance in Licorice Pizza, and try to remember ANYONE but Paul and Daniel from There Will Be Blood despite its epic length). In short we're a long long way from PTA's early breaktout pictures like Boogie Nights and Magnolia wherein multiple actors were given all sorts of scenery to chew on and won major career boosts from their efforts.

What are you expecting in the female acting categories this year? 

Comments

[Julian]

Amanda was nominated for Mank in Supporting Actress, so wouldn't be her first nomination. Excited for SO many of these films.