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The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

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Why No One Can Win "Best Picture" This Year

"I really don't see any of these movies as Best Picture Oscar material. "Roma" is the most artsy.
"Green Book" the most satisfying. "The Favourite" lost me with that WTF ending." -Jaragon

"All I know is there are at least 3 plausible outcomes for BP this year, and that's pretty unusual. I won't be surprised if Roma, Green Book, or Blackkklansman take it. " - Rob

"A foreign language film winning BP is weirdo, but everything is going to be weirdo this year." - Fabio

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Charts are for entertainment and speculation purposes only. Read and discuss 

will win: cuarón (and his filmography is so fine, we won't at all mind)
should win: mcqueen
Nathaniel's ballot 

Statistics do not include documentaries or short films. Curiously only Cuaron and McQueen have been winning critics prizes*. While it's not atypical for there to be much agreement between critics organizations these days, usually you have more than 2 names honored. Perhaps it was their dominance that shut Paul Greengrass out and allowed three directors with intense fanbases in the Academy to stick the landing?

*no, NBR is not a critics prize

THE OSCAR NOMINEES ARE...  

Alfonso Cuarón
GRAVITY
52 yrs old | 6 features
6 nominations
first nomination in this category

previous wins:BFCA, DGA,  Los Angeles , Globe + several critics group

Steve McQueen
TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE
44 yrs old | 3 features
first nomination!

previous wins: New York, Boston , Spirit+ several critics group
previous noms: GlobeBFCA, DGA

Martin Scorsese
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
12 noms | 1 win
(8/1 in this category) 

previous noms: DGA, BAFTA,

David O Russell
AMERICAN HUSTLE
55 yrs old | 7 features
5th nomination (3rd in this category) 

previous noms:  
Globe, DGA, BFCA

Alexander Payne
53 yrs old | 6 features
7 noms, 2 wins (3/0 in this category) NEBRASKA

previous noms:
n/a 

the director's branch admires ambition

This film will help them to accept his artistry at last. It's undeniable.

 he's won a nomination for divisive movies before. people are marvelling that he has something this wild in him still

he's been nominated for his last three pictures! he's caught messy lightning in a bottle with stars at the peak of their charisma

he's been nominated for his last three pictures!
Even without precursor help. 

on the outside looking in? Tough break for Paul Greengrass, who seemed like a major threat for Captain Phillips. But in the end Oscar voters in the major categories retreated to their safe zones: Amy Adams, Meryl Streep, Alexander Payne etcetera. It's a year of big honors for the regular players