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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

As of October 20th

Tier 1 - Prediction

The top dozen or so all look quite formidable. With such a stacked race much will depend on the early precursors for setting the tone of who gets unjustly ignored and who gets over-rewarded. With so many strong performances, we hope for some disagreement among precursors to show the breadth of quality out there. 

 

Sally Hawkins
41 yrs old | 24 films | 1 nomination
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

 

Oscar loves a mute character and she's utterly endearing (no surprise) in the film. Genre pieces can be tough sells for the staid Academy but everyone is falling for this beauty & beast style romantic fable. Her success earlier this year with Maudie will help.

 

Frances McDormand
60 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THREE BILLBOARDS
Oct 13th

REVIEWED

 

This biting dark comedy from Martin McDonagh was all the rage at TIFF and the enthusiasm could well transfer to Oscar voters. Everyone loves the acting by McDormand and Sam Rockwell in support.

 

 

Meryl Streep

68 yrs old | 54 films | 20 noms | 3 wins
THE POST
Dec 22nd

 

 Though no one has yet seen the film more details have emerged and it appears to be Streep rather than Hanks focused. 

Kate Winslet
41 yrs old | 37 films | 7 noms | 1 win
WONDER WHEEL
Dec 1st

 She's gone for the jugular with this big gestured, theatrical movie star turn and those who love such things will eat her up. Others might find the movie too theatrical (we hate when people see that as a pejorative but some do!)

 

Emma Stone

28 yrs old | 22 films | 2 noms | 1 win
BATTLE OF THE SEXES 
Sept 22nd

 

 Stone is winning very warm reviews for this fun role (tennis great Billie Jean King). I would not count her out easily during her victory lap. Especially since Billie Jean King herself is promoting it

 
Tier 2 - Also totally conceivable as nominees

Dame Judi Dench
82 yrs old | 47 films | 7 noms | 1 win
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
Sept 22nd

Reprising signature roles doesn't always lead to noms but it can: ask Blanchett, Weaver, Newman and Pacino. Oscar worships her. With both Dench and Streep in the mix as AMPAS default choices though this is less of a slam dunk than it might have been.

Saoirse Ronan
23 yrs old | 18 films | 2 nominations
LADY BIRD
Nov 3rd

Gotham Nomination

REVIEWED

 

If nominated she'll be the second actress to get 3 noms by 23 (the first was JLaw). She's wonderful in the film but Oscar can be fussy about stories about adolescents and stories about women and this is both.

Margot Robbie
27 yrs old | 13 films | never nominated
I, TONYA
Qualifying Only

Gotham Nomination

REVIEWED

 The film made waves during festival month and is a crowd pleaser. Golden Globe comedy feels like a given for nominations but Oscar will be tougher. Still, if they need a first time nominee, she's probably the one.

 

Annette Bening
59 yrs old | 31 films | 4 nominations
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Dec 15th

 That near-miss with 20th Century Women still stings.  She's playing an Oscar winner (which worked for Blanchett) and older voters might especially love thinking about Gloria Grahame's former glory and fall from stardom

Diane Kruger
41 yrs old | 34 films | never nominated
IN THE FADE
Qualifying Only

She won Best Actress at Cannes for this and she's an international star. If critics rally and she works her wonders on the red carpet...

 
Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Daniela Vega
unknown yrs old | 2 films | never nominated
A FANTASTIC WOMAN
Qualifying Only

This transgender actress has already won raves for this film from the director of the great woman's picture / character study Gloria. In a weaker Best Actress year one could see this happening

 Gal Gadot
32 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
WONDER WOMAN
June 2

REVIEWED

 If Warner Bros pushes hard you might seem some zeitgeist box-office fueled enthusiasm. A Globe nomination would be a major get and something they should aim for.

 

Michelle Williams
37 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Dec 8th

 

 Much will depend on whether the film has power in other categories (given how tight this field is) but you can usually count on her to deliver dramatic punch

Jessica Chastain
40 yrs old | 23 films | 2 nominations
MOLLY'S GAME
Dec 25th

 

 Appears to be more of a commercial play but you never know. Miss Sloane part two for badass Jess lovers. But this year is just so competitive. Can she find a way in?

Salma Hayek
51 yrs old | 44 films | 1 nomination
BEATRIZ AT DINNER
June 9th

An early bird possibility. The film was an arthouse success and Hayek is a well liked very famous actor. Critics would have to rally, though, and a  Golden Globe nod is an absolute must to put some wind in this sail.

 
More Women?

Outside Chart

  • Brooklynn Prince - FLORIDA PROJECT Gotham Nomination
  • Helen Mirren - THE LEISURE SEEKER
  • Jennifer Lawrence - MOTHER!
  • Claire Foy - BREATHE
  • Sally Hawkins - MAUDIE
  • Debra Winger - THE LOVERS
  • Nicole Kidman - THE BEGUILED
  • Brie Larson - THE GLASS CASTLE
  • Lois Smith - MARJORIE PRIME
  • Rachel Weisz - MY COUSIN RACHEL
  • Charlize Theron - ATOMIC BLONDE

Officially 2018 Now

  • Emma Thompson - THE CHILDREN ACT
  • Rooney Mara -  MARY MAGDALENE
  • Charlize Theron - TULLY
  • Glenn Close - THE WIFE *new. per Sony Pictures Classic*