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Amy Adams for Janis Joplin

"It's baffling to me that Amy Adams will potentially have as many nominations as Blanchett, Winslet, Maggie Smith, Vanessa Redgrave, Thelma Ritter, Deborah Kerr, Sissy Spacek, and Glenn Close. This is weird, right?" -Aaron

"What is happening with Nina Arianda's Janis film with Sean Durkin? It's still listed as "announced" on her IMDB. Are we to assumed that it is a lost cause?" -Ryan

 

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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Predictions as of Nov 23rd
Will this category hold a surprise? That fifth spot is crazy competitive

4 nominations
Still Alice
(SPC)
Qualifier

Gotham Nod

Reese Witherspoon
1 nom | 1 win
Wild
(Fox Searchlight) 
Dec 5th 

Felicity Jones
never nominated
Theory of Everything
(Focus Features)
Nov 7th
Rosamund Pike
never nominated
Gone Girl
(Fox)
Oct 3rd
Amy Adams
5 nominations
Big Eyes
(Weinstein Co)
Dec 25th

 Role
Alice, a professor with early on set Alzheimers

In her corner:
Just when you thought Juli's Oscar story was up, she wows again
But...
"Qualifying" runs which are anti-audience should really be stopped. At any cost.

Role
Cheryl Strayed, a lost sould finds herself on the PCT

In her corner:
Her best dramatic work yet as a woman who has let her life slip away in all kinds of ways.
But...
Despite the quality of the film, buzz is currently quiet

Role
Jane Hawking, wife of disabled genius

In her corner:
This Stephen Hawking bio is largely from the wife's perspective and pairing with Redmayne really upped her game. Plus you just can't argue that Oscar doesn't worship the "supportive" wives.
But...
Not a showy role.

Role
Amazing Amy, "cool girl" or psychopath? You decide.

In her corner:
She's playing arguably the most discussed character of the year in the single biggest hit aimed squarely at adults
But...
Oscar is unpredictable with thrillers and "unlikable" women and this character is hugely divisive.

Role:
Margaret Keane whose husband took credit for her popular paintings

In her corner: She can do no wrong with Oscar voter so it might be foolish to be against her. AMPAS also loves artist biopics so this is viable even if the film tanks.
But...
There's little enthusiasm for the film right now.

But Watch Out For...

 

Hilary Swank
2 noms | 2 wins
The Homesman
(Roadside)
Nov 14th

Gugu Mbatha-Raw
never nominated
Belle
(Fox Searchlight)
May 2nd 

BIFA nod + Gotham Nod(for another film), BIFA Newcomer

Emily Blunt
never nominated
Into the Woods
(Disney)
Dec 25th

Jennifer Aniston
never nominated
Cake
(Cinelou)
Qualifier

Marion Cotillard
1 nom | 1 win
Two Days One Night
(SPC)
Dec 24th

Role:
Mary Bee Cuddy, a lonely frontier spinster transports insane women across the country

In her corner:
Oscar loves her. Strong reviews for her work.
But...
People don't like the film. That can be a huge problem when other strong star turns in films people love are options. Being overrewarded won't help.

 

Role:
Belle, the biracial daughter of a high ranking official

In her corner:
If they're looking for a fresh new star -- which they often are in this category -- they could do worse. She's had a breakthrough year (see also: Beyond the Lights)
But...
May was a long time ago

Role
The Baker's Wife, childless and tempted in the Woods

In her corner:
Her years of cinematic promise (from Prada to Edge of Tomorrow) should help if she nails the heart of this twisted fairy tale
But...
She needs to nail it. A sure thing Golden Globe nod can only take you so far.

 

Role
A depressed scarred woman considers suicide after a friend jumps off a bridge

In her corner:
Oscar loves romcom queens to go serious by playing against type and they have been known to flip for grieving mothers. Plus she's good in the film.
But...
The film is teeny-tiny and you need to make big waves for Oscar competitions

Role:
Sandra, a seriously depressed woman, tries to save her job

In her corner:
She's amazing in this foreign film contender (which goes without saying at this point given her track record)
But...
Oscar hasn't shown any interest in her since her international breakthrough which won the gold.

The Long Shots

Jenny Slate
never nominated
Obvious Child
(A24)
June 6th

Gotham Nod

Mia Wasikowska
never nominated
Tracks
(Weinstein Co)
Sept 19th

Gotham Nod

Shailene Woodley
never nom'ed
Fault in Our Stars
(Fox)
June 6th
Keira Knightley
1 nomination
Begin Again
(Weinstein Co)
July 11th 

Scarlett Johansson
never nominated
Under the Skin
(A24)
April 4th

Gotham Nod

Critics and select audiences loved the film. A Spirit Awards run seems highly probable but she needs a Globe nomination to stay in discussion. The
character is abrasive and Oscar only likes that in men.

Though the film is underseen, most people agree that the performance is special. But it seems unlikely that Weinstein Co will fight for this nomination

She's turned into a box office commodity and voters aren't unfamiliar - she was clearly in the hunt for The Descendants. But this probably skews too young. And the campaign seems nonexistent

 This would make a great Musical/Comedy lead nomination. With a double nod there, Oscar traction will be fortified. At least for Supporting.

She's awesome as a seductive alien but it would take a miracle (or multiple critics awards) to get something this outre in an Oscar field

other leading women

Helen Mirren - Hundred Foot Journey
Gena Rowlands - Six Dance Lessons in Six Weeks
Michelle Monaghan - Fort Bliss
Sally Kirkland - Archaelogy of a Woman
Anne Hathaway - Interstellar
Marion Cotillard - The Immigrant
Maggie Smith - My Old Lady
Angelina Jolie - Maleficent
Gugu Mbatha-Raw - Beyond the Lights (Gotham Nod)
Chang Pei Pei - Lilting (BIFA nod)