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Yes No Maybe So - Big Eyes

"The trailer won me over with two phrases:
1) "Lady art doesn't sell".
2) "I've been lying to my daughter".
- Adri

"A Tim Burton movie with the title Big Eyes that features neither Ricci, Ryder, Keaton nor Bonham Carter just doesn't seem right..." -Paul

 

 

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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Predictions as of September 14th
This category is still wide open past Reese & Juli, current threats for the actual gold. Everyone else should really fight for a nomination!

Reese Witherspoon
1 nom | 1 win
Wild
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 5th
Julianne Moore
4 nominations
Still Alice
(SPC)
TBA
Felicity Jones
never nominated
Theory of Everything
(Focus Features)
Nov 7th
Rosamund Pike
never nominated
Gone Girl
(Fox)
Oct 3rd
Amy Adams
5 nominations
Big Eyes
(Weinstein Co)
Dec 25th

If you're a big enough star you can coast for a long time and challenge yourself once and they'll want you back. But here's better news: she's actually worthy of the attention in her best dramatic work as a woman who has let her life slip away in all kinds of ways. It'll take months of sweaty soul-searching to get it back.


Just when you thought Juli's Oscar story was up, she taps back into her minimalistic gifts from the mid 90s to play a linguistics college professor who learns she has early onset alzheimers. Her memory is fading and her ability to communicate -how she largely defines herself - will go with it. How will she and her family cope?

This Stephen Hawking biopic is based on his wife's memoirs and pairing with Redmayne has upped her game. Plus you just can't argue that Oscar doesn't worship the "supportive" wives. That works best in Supporting of course but there's no reason to think she can't make it happen here playing this tearful and tough wife and mother beset by challenges.

People who've read the book uniformly say this is a great showcase role. And Pike deserves a big breakout. That said it's still a thriller which are tricky beasts insofar as predicting Oscar love. The reviews will have to be there. We'll know fairly soon if this is just her high profile breakthrough or a bonafide Oscar play

She can do no wrong with Oscar voters, that's clear. And AMPAS also loves artist biopics so this is more likely than people think even if the film tanks. The biggest obstacle could well be Tim Burton who has never directed an actress to an Oscar nomination and hasn't been a critical darling in eons.

Second Tier. Hmmm....

Meryl Streep
18 noms | 3 wins
Into the Woods
(Disney)
Dec 25th

Hilary Swank
2 noms | 2 wins
The Homesman
(Roadside)
Nov 14th

Jessica Chastain
2 nomination
Eleanor Rigby
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
Shailene Woodley
never nom'ed
Fault in Our Stars
(Fox)
June 6th
Maggie Smith
6 noms | 2 wins
My Old Lady
(Cohen Media Group)
Sept 10th

The Witch is the marquee role even if it's not a true lead (in the sense that this play is always an ensemble piece) so she won't have much screen time. Still, we know Meryl can make an impression quickly and that they'll nominate her for virtually anything.

 

It's been 10 years since her divisive second win and this spinster/ long-suffering brave role looks right in their wheelhouse. Cannes reviews weren't promising, but as I cautioned, there's never the end game with Oscar traction. The latest reactions are more "this could happen!" so watch out for Swank fighting for a third nomination.

Her rapid rangey breakthrough a couple of years back left everyone wanting more. This romantic break-up drama is special but its many versions may confuse people. But really I'm placing my bets on her shady wife role in A Most Violent Year instead. That's on the supporting chart but who knows. Maybe it's a lead?

She's turned into a box office commodity with two hits this year and the voters aren't unfamiliar - she was clearly in the hunt for The Descendants. This movie is a tearjerker but does it skew too young for them. How hard will Fox fight for the nomination and will Shailene comply?

She's getting on in years and more popular with the public than ever thanks to Harry Potter and Downton Abbey. As the lifelong resident of an apartment a broke American wants to sell she could deliver bitter comedy gold. It also could pass by moviegoers without attention paid

Vote Siphoners
Michelle Williams
3 nominations
Suite Française
(Weinstein Co)
TBA

Marion Cotillard
1 nom | 1 win
The Immigrant
(Weinstein Co)
May 23rd

Angelina Jolie
2 noms | 1 win | 1 honorary
Maleficent
(Disney)
May 30th
Julianne Moore
4 nominations
Maps to the Stars
(eOne)
TBA
Scarlett Johansson
never nominated
Under the Skin
(A24)
April 4th

She needs to win soon lest she turn into the type Oscar respects but doesn't hand wins, too (Allen / Close / Moore, etc) Good buzz. But things have gone awfully quiet for this film which was no sure thing to begin with. What gives?

She won her usual tremendous reviews as a Polish immigrant struggling through poverty and prostitution in this 1920s New York drama. But will anyone remember it when it comes time for voting?

In a weak year for the category one can look past usual types of films. Hollywood loves Brad & Angie and everyone feels good about rooting for. But Disney films rarely win acting traction and even if voters are feeling fantasy-frisky, there's Meryl from Into the Woods to enchant them.

The Cannes win adds instant prestige to an outré role. Voters needed this shock to remind them of her gifts after 12 years away from Oscar. But now it looks like it will merekly work as a springboard to win a nomination for Still Alice.

This would be the weirdest Oscar nomination of all time if it were to happen, even though she is brilliant in it. But I like to include it on the grounds that she's brilliant in the movie, frightening, hypnotic, carnal, and cold blooded.

other leading roles

Juliette Binoche & Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sils Maria (Dec 1st)
Jennifer Lawrence -Serena (TBA)
Mia Wasikowska - Tracks
Helen Mirren - Hundred Foot Journey
Jennifer Aniston - Cake (looking for distirbution)

2015 Instead...
Charlize Theron - Dark Places | KateWinslet, A Little Chaos | Carey Mulligan Far From Madding Crowd | Carey Mulligan - Suffragette | Marion Cotillard Macbeth | Nicole Kidman Queen of the Desert | Cate Blanchett - Carol | Anna Kendrick - The Last Five Years | Jessica Chastain - Miss Julie | Mia Wasikowska - Tracks | Mia Wasikowska - Madame Bovary