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Emmy Aftermath - how to fix the Emmys?

"Personally, I'm opposed to capping wins or even nominations, even if seeing Modern Family win year after year drives me up the walls. I think it look punishing to the winners, instead of addressing the real issue, which are the voters and the voting system, and how even as things change and get more diverse and they try to catch up, they still don't vote that outside that box at all. It still takes that little aura of prestige for different shows to break in, and there is such a gap between what's great and what's awards-material." - Tee

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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Predictions as of Aug. 7th
This category is getting thin with so many potential contenders undecided on release dates
Amy Adams
5 nominations
Big Eyes
(Weinstein Co)
Dec 25th
Reese Witherspoon
1 nom | 1 win
Wild
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 5th
Rosamund Pike
never nominated
Gone Girl
(Fox)
Oct 3rd
Michelle Williams
3 nominations
Suite Française
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
Felicity Jones
never nominated
Theory of Everything
(Focus Features)
Nov 7th

Why predicther?
She can do no wrong with Oscar voters. And Oscar voters also love artist biopics so...

But...
Tim Burton hasn't directed an Oscar role in a very long time. And honestly if Adams doesn't win in the next few years, she's just not going to win.

Why predict her?
If you're a big enough star you can coast for a long time and challenge yourself once and they want to see you back (see De Niro in Silver Linings...) plus Vallee is hot off of Dallas Buyers Club

But...
This sorta solo film will be a deadly bore if Reese doesn't really bring it

 

Why predict her?
People who've read the book uniformly say this is a great showcase role. And Pike deserves a big breakout.

But...
It's still a thriller which are tricky beasts for Oscar love

Why predict her?
She needs to win soon lest she turn into the type Oscar respects but doesn't hand wins, too (Allen / Close / Moore, etc) Good buzz

But...
the film is no sure thing even at the arthouse. Will need strong reviews

Why predict her?
This Young Stephen Hawking biopic focuses on his marriage. Redmayne as screen partner could up her game (which could use some upping since she hasn't quite managed to breakthrough).

But...
Sometimes "the wife" goes supporting even if the role is ginormous (see A Beautiful Mind)

 

Second Tier. Also Could Happen

Meryl Streep
18 noms | 3 wins
Into the Woods
(Disney)
Dec 25th

Maggie Smith
6 noms | 2 wins
My Old Lady
(Cohen Media Group)
Sept 10th

Julianne Moore
4 nominations
Maps to the Stars
(eOne)
TBA
Jessica Chastain
2 nomination
Eleanor Rigby
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
Jessica Chastain
2 nominations
Miss Julie
(TBA)
TBA

In her favor
Hello, it's Meryl. And it's Meryl singing! Plus The Witch is the marquee role even if...

But...
...in the strictest sense this has always been a true ensemble piece... so she won't have that much screen time.

In her favor
She's getting on in years and more popular with the public than ever thanks to Harry Potter and Downton Abbey. As the lifelong resident of an apartment a broke American wants to sell she could deliver bitter comedy gold

But...
Could pass by moviegoers without attention paid

In her favor
Cannes win adds instant prestige to an outré role. And voters need a shock to remind them of her gifts after a decade 12 years away from Oscar

But...
Cannes winners rarely get very far with Oscar (think Huppert in The Piano Teacher or Kiki in Melancholia)

In her favor
Her rapid rangey breakthrough a couple of years back left everyone wanting more. This romantic drama is special but its many versions may confuse people and then there's also the other film, the Strindbergh classic. Will they go for either or will this be too much of a good thing without something great?

But...
I'm placing my bets on A Most Violent Year instead.
Other Contenders (So Much To Look Forward To!)
Shailene Woodley
never nom'ed
Fault in Our Stars
(Fox)
June 6th

Hilary Swank
2 noms | 2 wins
The Homesman
(Roadside)
Nov 7th 

Helen Mirren
4 noms | 1 win
The Hundred Foot Journey
(Disney)
Aug 8th
Angelina Jolie
2 noms | 1 win | 1 honorary
Maleficent
(Disney)
May 30th
Scarlett Johansson
never nominated
Under the Skin
(A24)
April 4th

In her favor
She's turned into a box office commodity with two hits this year and the voters aren't unfamiliar - she was clearly in the hunt for The Descendants. This movie is a tearjerker

But...
it's also easy to dismiss to some extent. And skews very young for Oscar voters

 

In her favor
It's been 10 years since her divisive 2nd win and this spinster/ long-suffering brave role looks right in their wheelhouse

But...
Cannes reviews weren't promising but mainstream AMPAS voters are a different audience. And they like Swank.

In her favor
Mirren is well loved and this icy restaurateur (who melts, naturally) role could be a nice change of pace. She won lots of traction for Hitchcock of all things so anything is possible

But...
Disney isn't great at getting Oscar nods and the film might be lightweight (*cough* Lasse Hallström)

In her favor
It looks like a weak year for this category and Hollywood loves Brad & Angie. Everyone feels good about rooting for and she had another massive hit

But...
Disney films rarely win acting traction

In her favor
She's awesome. So's the movie. More on that...

But...
Everything else. This would be the weirdest Oscar nomination of all time even if she is brilliant in it. But seriously, look at the list below none of whom have set release dates

2014 or 2015 ?
Release plans are murky for
SO MANY CONTENDERS

Mia Wasikowska, Tracks & Madame Bovary
Anna Kendrick - The Last 5 Years
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Carey Mulligan
- Far From Madding Crowd & Suffragette
Juliette Binoche & Kristen Stewart - Sils Maria
Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
Charlize Theron - Dark Places
KateWinslet, A Little Chaos
Marion Cotillard
Macbeth
Nicole Kidman Queen of the Desert