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Doc Corner: McQueen

"It's an excellent film, very well balanced, full of fascinating talking heads, and beautifully put together." -Edward L

"This should be the fashion documentary that makes it through to the final 5." - Peggy Sue

"I saw this in the UK last week. I was fascinated --especially the relationship with Blow and reflections on his gender politics. Would recommend." - catbaskets

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

JULY 7TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

Though it's currently a free for all with so few of the movies yet seen, we're envisioning a race between Glenn Close and Carey Mulligan for the crown... with Kiki Layne and Lady Gaga as wild cards depending on how reception of their films go.

Glenn Close
71 yrs old | 40 films | 6 nominations
THE WIFE
SPC
August 3rd

A wise but unexpected move to release this early. It'll give the "coronation" style awards narrative time to build. She's great in this star vehicle about a woman who's been in her husband's shadow too long.

Carey Mulligan
33 yrs old | 17 films | 1 nomination
WILDLIFE
IFC
Oct 19th

She's a critically acclaimed actress who hasn't quite found a signature role past her charming star-is-born debut. Will this film be the one that does it? Her reputation keeps growing helped by rave reviews on stages, too.

Lady Gaga
32 yrs old | 4 films | never nominated *in acting*
A STAR IS BORN
Warner Bros
Oct 5th

Early buzz is strong... but that could all be hype given that it's mostly official sources talking. At the very least pencil in a Best Song nomination.  Gaynor and Garland were both nominated for leading this story though Babs was not. (ANOTHER GLOBE WIN?)

 Emily Blunt
35 yrs old | 28 films | never nominated
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Disney
Dec 25th

Recreating an Oscar winning role is nervy territory but the casting really couldn't be better: Blunt can do any genre and sings beautifully. We're going to be optimistic and say it brings her that long overdue first nod. (ANOTHER GLOBE WIN?)

Viola Davis
52 yrs old | 37 films | 3 noms | 1 win
WIDOWS 
Fox
Nov 16th

On paper this didn't sound like much (in terms of Oscar) but the caliber of the team assembled suggests that it could very easily transcend any notion we have of what it might be. And the trailer feels weighty for a 'heist/organized crime' picture. Davis is always awesome.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be These Five

Kiki Layne
??? yrs old | 2 films | never nominated
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Annapurna
Release TBA

If Moonlight was indication, Barry Jenkins is super gifted with actors. Layne is a fresh talent (we don't know anything about her yet) but this is a meaty part as the pregnant girlfriend of a man accused of rape. Why so little buzz yet? 

Toni Collette
45 yrs old | 1 nomination
HEREDITARY
A24
June 8th

Rave and rave in terms of reviews and her sole nomination IS from the horror genre (The Sixth Sensebut still. Horror is always a tough awards season climb. But it's a great success story, especially since Collette has been wasted on screen for too long.

Felicity Jones
34 yrs old | 21 films | 1 nomination
ON THE BASIS OF SEX
Focus
Dec 25th

She's got one of the year's best roles on paper: Ruth Bader Ginsburg in her youth. And the success fo the RBG doc could even help. But Director Mimi Leder's past films (a long time ago) didn't scream "great with actors" as one of her primary gifts. We'll see.

Melissa McCarthy

47 yrs old | 27 films | 1 nomination
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Fox Searchlight
Oct 19th

On paper this seems like a slam dunk move - celebrated comic actor gets serious in a true story about an infamous writer. But the trailer looks more drab than you'd expect from this director. I'm a wee bit nervous but it might be really good.

Saoirse Ronan

24 yrs old | 21 films | 3 nominations
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Focus
Dec 7th

When Oscar falls for you they fall for you which means she'll definitely be considered. She's on a hot streak but only Streep is nominated every time out of the gate. Will Margot Robbie pull focus? Or are we foolish to doubt her and she'll turn quickly into the new Streep?

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Emma Thompson
59 yrs old |  4 noms | 1 win (in acting) 
THE CHILDREN ACT
A24
Sept 14th

Reviews are strong for her performance as a judge torn up about a specific case involving a minor but less so for the film. That can often be a tough road to acting nominations. And A24 might have their hands full trying to pull off a Toni Collette nod

Mary Elizabeth Winstead
33 yrs old | never nominated
ALL ABOUT NINA
The Orchard
Release TBA 

She's winning the kind of reviews actors dream of for this indie about an angry female comic from a debuting female writer/director. Pray that Orchard figures out how to Oscar campaign for her.

Rachel Weisz
48 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
DISOBEDIENCE
Bleecker Street
April 27th

It's up there with her best performances (Constant Gardener / Deep Blue Sea) and the movie was a sleeper hit at arthouses. Can Bleecker Street launch a big campaign? People do like the film a lot. There's substance for a campaign here.

Maggie Gyllenhaal
40 yrs old | 32 films | 1 nomination
THE KINDERGARTEN TEACHER
Netflix
Release TBA

Winning "genius" style reviews but the lack of enthusiasm for the film itself though could be a problem. Plus Netflix. Still wouldn't it be great to see this still underappeciated talent with a second nomination?

Charlize Theron
42 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
TULLY
Focus
May 4th

Somehow despite being famous for 20 years and winning an Oscar and headlining multiple films, we'd argue she's still underappreciated as a thespian. That will probably continue this year given that the film wasn't a hit. But if we're talking deserves a big campaign, she does!

 

Tier 4a - Will they actually arrive in 2018 or be pushed back? In other words why is the buzz so quiet still and no release date yet:

Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Taraji P Henson - The Best of Enemies, Judi Dench - Red Joan, Julianne Moore - Gloria Bell

 
Tier 4b - Everyone Else!

(Alphabetical Order)

Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place, Sandra Bullock - Bird Box, Penelope Cruz - Everybody Knows, Elizabeth Debicki - Vita and Virginia, Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade, Claire Foy - The Girl in the Spider's Web, Hera Hilmar - Mortal Engines, Vanessa Hudgens - Second Act, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer, Keira Knightley -Colette, Keira Knightley - The Aftermath, Rooney Mara - Mary Magdalene, Melissa McCarthy - Life of the Party, Julianne Moore - Bel Canto, Emily Mortimer - The Bookshop, Michelle Pfeiffer - Where is Kyra?, Storm Reid - A Wrinkle in Time, Julia Roberts - Ben is Back,  Saoirse Ronan - On Chesil Beach, Jessica Rothe - Valley Girl, Amy Schumer - I Feel Pretty, Amanda Seyfried - Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again, Kristen Stewart - JT Leroy, Emma Stone - The Favourite, Hilary Swank - What They Had,  Constance Wu - Crazy Rich Asians, Renée Zellweger - Judy