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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

ALL APRIL FOOLISH OSCAR PREDICTIONS ARE IN. NEXT CHART-WIDE UPDATE DIRECTLY AFTER CANNES WIN

April Foolish Predicted Five
The Supporting Actress chart may be hiding some Lead contenders as well...  Seems like a very competitive year

Cate Blanchett
6 noms | 2 wins 
Carol
(Weinstein Co)
TBA

Meryl Streep
19 noms | 3 wins
Ricki & The Flash
(Sony/Tri-Star)
Aug 7th

Emily Blunt
never nominated
Sicario
(Lionsgate
Sept 18th

Saoirse Ronan
1 nomination
Brooklyn
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 6th
Julianne Moore
5 noms | 1 win
Freeheld
(Lionsgate)
Oct 2nd
An important disclaimer: I can't actually picture three Best Actress giants (Streep, Blanchett, and Moore) all being nominated again this year but Streep is foolish to bet against - if she makes a movie they nominate her, and the other two have baity lesbian roles... so I couldn't decide who to leave out. The question now is which of those three movies will win Oscar hearts? Your vehicle is important... somewhat... even if you're a default player.   There's already a fun narrative -the studio wanted her part as an FBI agent assigned to work on a Mexican cartel case, reassigned to a man but the director refused. Can she finally win a signature part post Prada? She's just lovely in this Sundance hit, charting a young Irish immigrant's unsteady assimilation into American culture . The question is whether Oscar will be in the mood for an old fashioned melodrama  Victory lap or will Ellen Page, who has the better narrative given how hard she worked to make the movie happen, get the lion's share of press? We shall see. If their chemistry is great both of them?

Tier 2 - Also Look Like Strong Contenders This Early
Carey Mulligan
1 nomination
Suffragette
(Focus)
Oct 23rd
Jennifer Lawrence
3 noms | 1 win
Joy
(Fox)
Christmas
Lily Tomlin
1 nomination
Grandma
(SPC)
Aug 21st
Marion Cotillard
2 noms | 1 win
MacBeth
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
Kate Winslet
6 nominations | 1 win
The Dressmaker
(TBA)
TBA
 Will she be squeezed out in what looks like a super competitive year or might she have a run at the actual win for this story that should have been told at the cinema ages ago Oscar loves her with David O. Russell so they're pairing again, this time with a period drama about the inventor of the Miracle Mop. But can lightning strike thrice?   She's superb and hilarious in a true showcase part in this darkly comic indie from the writer/director of About a Boy. It'll need to be at least a minor hit but this could totally happen if they're feeling the "career tribute" vibes  Out damn spot! Cotillard has another major showcase for her major gifts this year. But Shakespeare hasn't been Oscar's thing in a very long while. Still if she's on fire you never know... Should the film be good and nab a strong distributor, wouldn't it be sweet to see an Oscar comeback? She plays a vengeful fashionista and she's paired with another great actress (Judy Davis) 

Tier 3 - or maybe ?
Maggie Smith
6 noms | 2 wins
The Lady in the Van
(Tri-Star)
Dec 11th
Sally Field
3 noms | 2 wins
Hello My Name is Doris
(Roadside Attractions)
TBA
Charlotte Rampling
never nominated
45 Years
(Sundance Selects)
TBA
Alicia Vikander
never nominated
The Light Between Oceans
(TBA)
TBA
Alicia Vikander
never nominated
Ex Machina
(A24)
April 10th
She looks to be playing it a bit broad here in this serio comic tale of a homeless woman living in a van. But she's always been an awards magnet so who knows...  She got fine reviews at SXSW but there's still no release date and all of her Oscar nominations have come from Best Picture nominees. So this would be a tall order to achieve. This film legend has never been nominated (for shame!) and this marital drama will surely be a must-see. But Sundance Selects sadly isn't an Oscar style distributor   With 8 movies arriving in 2015, it could well be her year. In fact, it's easier to imagine her as Oscar's favorite new toy if any of her picture's hit. If she goes lead for The Danish Girl watch out. But right now we Alicia fans from A Royal Affair and Anna Karenina can obsess over how great she is in Ex Machina though it's the type of role that Oscar and even critics (sigh) will pass over due to genre bias.
Tier 4 - Other Leads This Year
Zoe Saldana (never nominated) Nina; Alicia Vikander (never nominated) Tulip Fever; Brit Robertson (never nominated) Tomorrowland; Melissa McCarthy (1 nomination) Spy; Mia Wasikowska (never nominated) Crimson Peak; Cate Blanchett (6 noms | 2 wins) Truth; Viola Davis (2 noms) Lila & Eve; Charlize Theron (2 noms | 1 win) The Last Face; Emma Stone (1 nomination) Irrational Man