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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 22nd POST-FESTIVAL PREDICTIONS

 

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
At this point it looks like a Viola vs Natalie vs Emma showdown. But there's still plenty of time for shake ups.

Natalie Portman
JACKIE
(2 nominations | 1 win)
Dec 9th 

Sometimes quality is the thing. Pablo Larraín's fierce intimate raw portrait of Jackie Kenney in grief and crisis is expertly acted. Slam dunk nomination. But can Portman win again?

More on Portman

Emma Stone
LA LA LAND
(1 nomination)
Dec  2nd

 Stone & Gosling wisely reteamed for a third time (after ably proving their chemistry twice prior) and, the third time is a home run. Great rapport, wonderful movie, surefire Oscar play for Stone.

 

Viola Davis
FENCES
(2 noms)
Dec 25th 

The Academy owes her a statue and we're impatient. She won the Tony and there is a history of stars winning both statues for the same role.

WARNING: This role is sometimes considered "supporting" in stage productions

Ruth Negga
LOVING
(never nom'ed)
Nov 4th 

Early reviews are strong on this true story -- especially for Negga's work --  and Jeff Nichols is well positioned to breakthrough to more mainstream acclaim. Plus she's a highly watchable actress

Annette Bening
20TH CENTURY WOMEN
(4 noms)
Dec 21st

Mike Mills has a gift for iconoclastic family drama (see Beginners) and she's playing an unconventional woman teaching her son about the world in the 70s Early buzz is strong on her work but we still hear so little about the movie itself. Dec 21st feels really late for this.

 

 

Tier 2 - But watch out for...

Isabelle Huppert
ELLE
(never nom'ed)
Nov 11th
Reviewed

CAREER-CAPPER CRITICAL CAUSE?

Sony Pictures Classics is sometimes been very smart with campaigns. Can they make a big deal that Huppert (an international legend) has never been honored?

Bonus Points: Things to Come/L'Avenir

 

Meryl Streep
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
(19 noms | 3 wins) 
Aug 12th 
Reviewed 

HER NAME ALONE ASSURES THEY'LL "CONSIDER"

It's always unwise to bet against Streep. But with so many rich possibilities this year could something featherweight factor in after opening in the summer?

More on Streep

Amy Adams
ARRIVAL
(5 noms)
Nov 11th 
Reviewed 

HER NAME ALONE ASSURES THEY'LL "CONSIDER"

She's a linguist brought in to communicate with aliens in this reportedly rich sci-fi drama from Denis Villeneuve. 

Bonus Points: Nocturnal Animals

More on Amy Adams

Kate Beckinsale
LOVE & FRIENDSHIP
(never nom'ed)
June 3rd 
Reviewed 

GOLDEN GLOBE BOOST?

Can this charming comedy get the push it deserves? And if it wins Globe attention could Beckinsale work enough red carpets to make Oscar traction happen?

Emily Blunt
GIRL ON THE TRAIN
(never nom'ed)
Oct 7th 

WHEN? SHE'S BEEN WAITING SO LONG

She's been building momentum for years and this could be the major howcase to do it. If an only if it's a big hit. When you work a mainstream genre, like "thriller" you have to have the public on your side to get prizes.

 

Tier 3 - Long Shots

 Sally Field
HELLO MY NAME IS DORIS
(3 noms | 2 wins)
April 1st 
Reviewed

GOLDEN GLOBE BOOST?

She made a hit out of this tiny comedy. Will her presumed Globe nod at the end of the year remind people how delightful she is in it?

More on Sally

Sonia Braga
AQUARIUS
(never nominated)
Oct 14th 

They won't remember how badly they stiffed her for Kiss of the Spider-Woman 30 years back but everyone thinks she's great in this drama which was shunned at home for Oscar submission due to politics  -but that could actually help her case.

Jessica Chastain
MISS SLOANE
(2 noms)
Dec 9th 

 She's the title character, naturally, in this timely drama about the gun lobby. Can it get that Zero Dark Thirty political heat?

 

Her choices of late have been a bit shaky. Can this be a critical comeback? The teaser looks like more of a commercial play.

More on Jessica

 

Rachel Weisz
DENIAL
(1 nom | 1 win)
Sept 30th 

She's fighting against Holocaust deniers in this true story drama. Oscar likes a little deglam and she sure looks a mess compared to her usual glam self

 Jennifer Lawrence
PASSENGERS
(4 noms | 1 win)
Dec 25th 

Chris Pratt is lonely in space... until Jennifer Lawrence wakes up. Can two stars at peak charisma make this an automatic winner? But even if its great will it feel like an "actor's film" - probably not.

More on JLaw

Tier Vote Siphoning - Other Female Leads This Year...

Taraji P Henson  - Hidden Figures; Susan Sarandon - The Meddler; Kate Winslet - The Dressmaker;  Alicia Vikander - The Light Between Oceans; Marion Cotillard - Allied; Felicity Jones -Rogue One; Rebecca Hall - Christine; Amy Adams - Nocturnal Animals; Rosamund Pike -United Kingdom; Anya-Taylor Joy - The Witch; Mary Elizabeth Winstead - 10 Cloverfield Lane; Krisha Fairchild -Krisha

Waiting for 2017
Jessica Chastain - The Zookeeper's Wife |  Alicia Vikander - Tulip Fever |  Michelle Pfeiffer -Beat Up Little Seagull