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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

CONGRATULATIONS TO JULIANNE - We've been waiting a long time for this.

The Nominees

5th nom | 1st win!
Still Alice
(SPC)
Qualifier

Rosamund Pike
1st nomination
Gone Girl
(Fox)
Oct 3rd

Felicity Jones
1st nomination
Theory of Everything
(Focus Features)
Nov 7th

Marion Cotillard
2 noms | 1 win
Two Days One Night
(SPC)
Dec 24th
Reese Witherspoon
2 noms | 1 win
Wild
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 5th

 

 Role
Alice, a professor with early on-set Alzheimers

Will she win?
Just when we thought Juli's Oscar story was up, she wowed again. It's hers to lose though a note of caution: Oscar is notoriously resistant to 50something actresses.

awards
NBR, Globe, +  critics groups
nom:
Spirit, BAFTA,  SAG,  
BFCA,  GLOBEOFCS

 

Role
Amazing Amy: "cool girl" or psychopath? You decide. Oscar voters will.

Arrived Girl:
Oscar is unpredictable with thrillers and "unlikable" women but her icy "cool girl" seems to have awards heat. The huge box office surely helps.

awards
+ critics groups
nom:
 SAG, BAFTA,  GLOBEBFCA,
OFCS,

 

Role
Jane Hawking, wife of disabled genius

In her corner:
This Stephen Hawking bio is largely from the wife's perspective and pairing with Redmayne upped her game. Plus you just can't argue that Oscar doesn't worship the "supportive" wives. Eddie vying for the actual win so she's in.

awards
n/a
nom:
 SAG, BAFTA,  GLOBEBFCA,

 

Role
Sandra, a seriously depressed woman, tries to save her job

In her corner:
She's amazingly natural, less a tour de force than a humbling vision of the art of acting

awards
NYFCC, NSFC, EFA + critics groups
noms
 Spirit (for The Immigrant),  
BFCA, OFCS

 

 Role Cheryl Strayed, a lost soul finds herself on the PCT

In her corner:
Reese does her best dramatic work in a very fine moving film about a woman who has let her life slip away
But...
enthusiasm doesnt seem to be there for the film

awards
a couple of critics group
nom:
 SAG,BAFTA,  GLOBEBFCA,

But How'd They Get Nominated
50% Timing + Career Tribute. Years perceived as "weak" are the ideal soil for career honors
30% Performance & that scene with the vid. Or the yellow highlighter *sobs*
10% Role. Disease!
5% Precursors
4% Alec Baldwin Best Actress Good Luck Charm (see Blanchett last year and Basinger back in the day)
1% Kristen Stewart
55% Movie / Role (inseparable) "Amazing Amy" had pop culture force. Big big hit.
32% Performance. That mask like roscharch face.
7% People who miss the Basic Instinct style 90s and/or wanted to see Neil Patrick Harris brutally murdered
6% David Fincher's guidance, Ben Affleck's Penis, Carrie Coon's loathing
42% The movie. A Best Picture weepie that totally hinged on its two leads'
21% Performance(s)... She brought the chemistry. Twice.
19% Role. Oscar worships longsuffering wives
12% Precursors didn't look elsewhere and campaign started early
4% groundwork from that Like Crazy campaign
2% Oscar likes em young in Best Actress 
50% Performance. Wow.
22% Critic group's push in a year perceived as "Weak" - they didn't like their other options
12% 'Wait. you mean we haven't nominated since her win?' Rust & Bone, Nine, The Immigrant, Etc
9% Role. DeGlam... Artistic Merit / Non Gimmick Sub-Division
5% Lefty politics
2% Edith Piaf & Ampas Francophilia
27% Comeback. "The Reesurgence" is real and Oscar loves that angle.
27% Role / Movie. Based on a well loved best seller with plenty of feels
27% Performance. Against stype and she delivered. 
10% Vicarious living. Who doesn't want Laura Dern as their momma? Or to get away from it all and begin anew?
9% Precursor support

Who Got Left Out

 

Jennifer Aniston managed all the important precursors for Cake but was left out in the rain on Thursday morning. Too many of the other candidates like Keira Knightley (Begin Again), Scarlett Johansson (Under the Skin) and so on were in films that were too far off of Oscar's imaginative playground in terms of genre or appeal

Who Will Win
Julianne Moore may well finally win the Oscar she's deserved for 20 years.  AND SO IT CAME TO PASS! 
Who Should Win?
This is where you came in. And BEST ACTRESS is always the most popular poll. Lotsa votes but Julianne Moore had no trouble pulling it out