BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Tier 1 Predictions
(Statistics are for writing categories only. An asterisk * indicates that they have Oscar history in other categories as well)

Martin McDonagh
3 nominations*
WILD HORSE NINE
(Searchlight)
Nov

Jessie Eisenberg
1 nomination*
UNTITLED
(A24)
Date tba

Alejandro G Inarritu, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giacobone (1 nom | 1 win* each)  and  Sabina Berman (never nominated)
DIGGER
(Warner Bros)
Oct 2

Cristian Mungiu
never nominated
FJORD
(Neon)
Date tba

James Gray
never nominated
PAPER TIGER
(Neon)
Date tba

Beth de Araujo
never nominated
JOSEPHINE
(Sumerian)
Date tba

Peter Gamble
never nominated
I PLAY ROCKY
(Amazon /MGM)
Nov 13

Joel Coen
7 noms | 2 wins
JACK OF SPADES
(Distributor tba)
Date tba

Rashida Jones & Will McCormack
never nominated
THE INVITE
(A24)
Date tba

Pedro Almodovar
1 nom | 1 win*
BITTER CHRISTMAS
(SPC)
Date tba

If we find out any of them are adapted -- it's occassionally hard to know early on -- we'll adjust the charts.

• Bucking Fastard - Werner Herzog
• Bunker - Florian Zeller
• Disclosure Day - David Koepp, Steven Spielberg
• End of Oak Street - David Robert Mitchell
• Fatherland -Pawel Pawlikowski & Hendrik Handloegten
• Forgotten Island - Joel Crawford and Januel Mercado
• Ha-Chan Shake Your Booty - Josef Kubota Wladyka & Nicholas Huynh
• Hoppers - Jesse Andrews, Daniel Chong
• The Invite - Rashida Jones & Will McCormack
• I Love Boosters - Boots Riley
• I Swear - Kirk Jones
• A Place in Hell - Chloe Domont
• Power Ballad - John Carney
• Tennder Loving Care - Mike Leigh
• The Uprising - Paul Greengrass
• Werwulf - Robert Eggers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Tier 1 Predictions
(Statistics are for writing categories only. An asterisk * indicates that they have Oscar history in other categories as well)

Drew Goddard
1 nomination
PROJECT HAIL MARY
(Amazon/MGM
March 20

Based on the 2021 novel of the same name by Andy Weir

Sian Heder
1 nom | 1 win*
BEING HEUMANN
(Apple)
Date tba

Based on the memoir of the same name subtitled "An Unrepentant Memoir of A Disability Rights Activist"

Aaron Sorkin
4 noms | 1 win*
THE SOCIAL RECKONING
(Sony)
Oct 9

A time jump sequel to the 2010 classic The Social Network centering on a whistleblowing case

Ryusuke Hamaguchi (1 nomination) & Léa Le Dimna (never nominated)
ALL OF A SUDDEN
(Neon)
Date tba

Based on the non-fiction book "You and I -- The Illness Suddenly Got Worse" by Makiko Miyano and Maho Isono

Christopher Nolan
3 nominations*
THE ODYSSEY
(Universal)
July 17

Based on Homer's ancient epic poem of the same name

Quentin Tarantino
4 noms | 2 wins*
THE ADVENTURES OF CLIFF BOOTH
(Netflix)
TBA

Further Once Upon a Time in Hollywood adventures from Tarantino though he didn't want to direct this time.

Chuko Esiri
never nominated
CLARISSA
(Neon)
Date tba  

Based on the novel "Mrs Dalloway" by Virginia Woolf, transposed to Nigeria.

Jon Spaiths & Denis Villeneuve
1 nom each*
DUNE PART THREE
(Warner Bros)
Dec 18

Based on "Dune Messiah" by Frank Herbert, and a sequel to Parts One and Two, both adapted from the first book "Dune".

Los Javis & Alberto Conejero
never nominated
THE BLACK BALL
(Netflix)
Date tba

Based on the unfinished work of Federico Garcia Lorca and the play La Piedra Oscura by Alberto Conejero

Andrey Zvyagintsev & Simon Liashenko
never nominated
MINOTAUR
(Mubi)
Date tba

Based on Claude Chabrol's 1969 film The Unfaithful Wife (which was later adapted into the American erotic thriller Unfaithful)

• And Avengers Doomsday - based on Marvel Comics characters
• Backrooms - based on the webseries of the same name by Kane Parsons
• The Bride! - based on the novel by Mary Shelley
• Clayface - Based on the DC comics characters
• Cry to Heaven -based on the novel by Anne Rice
• The Death of Robin Hood - based on the 17th century Ballad "Robin Hood's Death"
• The Devil Wears Prada 2 - continuing the 2006 film
• Ebeneezer: A Christmas Carol - based on Charles Dickens
• Ink - based on the play about Rupert Murdoch
• Primetime - based on television series "To Catch a Predator"
• The Sheep Detectives - based on the 2005 novel "Three Bags Full" by Leonie Swain
• Saturn Return - based on ...
• Sense & Sensibility - based on the Jane Austen novel
• Supergirl - Based on DC Comics characters
• Switzerland - Based on the 2014 play of the same name
• Toy Story 5 - Based on the Pixar series
• Wildwood - based on Carson Ellis' 2011 novel of the same name
• Wuthering Heights - based on the novel by Emily Bronte