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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

AUGUST 9TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

The supporting fields are always destined to have surprises (at least from an early vantage point -- people who run away with a picture, unexpected coattails despite a nothing role, etcetera -- so take this for what it's worth before seeing all the movies. Perhaps nothing! But we feel good about the top ten at least being the in the "conversation" if not necessarily nominated come year's end. 

Scarlett Johansson
34 yrs old | never nominated
JOJO RABBIT
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 27th

Sure to be a sympathetic role as a mother hiding a Jewish girl from Nazis.  All those years in franchise land may have dulled people to the fact that she's overdue for recognition. And Marriage Story could help here.

 Laura Dern
52 yrs old | 2 noms
MARRIAGE STORY
(Netflix)
Release TBA

Voters will be reminded of her screen warmth as Marmee in Little Women right before voting but Marriage Story could be more likely if there's more to chew on in the role.

Zhao Shuzhen
??? yrs old | never nominated
THE FAREWELL 
(A24)
July 12th

Impossible not to love as NaiNai, whose end of life medical diagnosis is central to the plot. She'd have a great narrative as a newbie at her age BUT Oscar has almost never recognized Asian actors (sigh) even when they've been in major Best Pictures

Annette Bening
60 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE REPORT
(Amazon)
Nov 15th

 Oscar always falls for actors doing real life people (Dianne Feinstein here) but Oscar has passed on her brilliance before. And Amazon seems to lack confidence this year despite past Oscar successes.

Margot Robbie
28 yrs old | 1 nomination
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
(Columbia)
July 26th

Oscar loves actors playing other icons (Sharon Tate here) and even though her screen time is very limited people seem to love her in it.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be These Five

Maggie Smith
84 yrs old | 6 noms | 2 wins
DOWNTON ABBEY
(Focus)
Sept 20th

After the past decade in this role its rivalling Miss Jean Brodie as her signature part. Everyone loves her but she hasn't been nominated in 18 years now and she's getting up their in years. On the other hand, this isn't the Emmys.

Jannelle Monáe
33 yrs old | never nominated
HARRIET
(Focus)
Release TBA

She proved in her debut that she had the major goods in terms of screen presence. But is this role actually substantial or did the trailer just use her because of her fame? Maybe the role is short?

Nicole Kidman
51 years old | 4 noms | 1 win
BOMBSHELL
(Lionsgate)
Dec 20th

Oscar loves actors playing other famous types (Gretchen Carlson here) but it's a big cast with international competition and she's also got The Goldfinch this year.

Thomasin McKenzie
18 yrs old | never nominated
JOJO RABBIT
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 27th

 Playing a Jewish girl in hiding in this WW II era dramedy. Lots of leftover goodwill from Leave No Trace but while the role seems very Oscar like on paper it is a satire (and those are difficult for people) so that could hinder Oscar love for the performances.

Octavia Spencer
46 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
LUCE
(Neon)
Aug 2nd

A more complex role than she usually gets as a concerned suspicious teacher. She's winning very strong reviews and we know Oscar loves her even when the role isn't this meaty.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Anna Paquin
36 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
(Netflix)
Release TBA

Being the most famous woman in a largely male cast often pays off in awards season.Still she's blink and you'll miss her as the titular character's daughter in the trailer? Cameo or substantial?

Elisabeth Moss
37 yrs old | never nominated
US
(Universal)
Mar 22nd

If Lupita Nyong'o's Lead prospects rise, why not Moss on her coattails since she's also brilliant and creepy af in the film.

Eliza Scanlan
20 yrs old | never nominated
LITTLE WOMEN
(Columbia)
Dec 25th

Beth March is the secret tear-jerking weapon of LW. If she mesmerizes like she did in Sharp Objects... watch out. On the other hand she's the least well known member of the cast.

Penélope Cruz
44 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
PAIN & GLORY
(SPC)
Oct 4th

 Oscar was once infatuated with her and whenever she works with Almodóvar it's just a gift to audiences but early buzz suggests this is the Banderas show.

Florence Pugh
23 yrs old | never nominated
LITTLE WOMEN
(Columbia)
Dec 25th

Though Amy March isn't usually an awards prospect roll, people are very excited about Pugh as an actress right about now (Lady Macbeth, MidSommar) so if the film is a big hit, who knows?
 
Other supporting actresses of (possible) note
  • Ad Astra - Ruth Negga, Kimberly Elise, LisaGay Hamilton
  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - Maryann Plunkett, Susan Kelechi Watson 
  • Cats - Jennifer Hudson, Judi Dench, Taylor Swift, Rebel Wilson
  • Downton Abbey - half of the cast
  • The Farewell - Diana Lin
  • Ford v Ferrari - Caitronia Balfe
  • The Goldfinch - Sarah Paulson, Ashleigh Cummings, Nicole Kidman
  • Harriet - Vanessa Bell Calloway
  • The King - Lily Rose-Depp
  • Little Women - Emma Watson, Meryl Streep, Laura Dern
  • Luce - Naomi Watts
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Julia Butters, Margaret Qualley
  • Personal History of David Copperfield - Tilda Swinton, Gwendolyn Christie, Sophie McShera
  • Queen & Slim - Chloe Sevigny
  • Seberg - Margaret Qualley, Zazie Beetz
  • The Souvenir -Tilda Swinton
  • The Truth -Ludivine Sagnier, Catherine Deneuve
  • Untitled Roger Ailes Project - Margot Robbie, Alice Eve, Allison Janney, Connie Britton, Alanna Ubach