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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

DECEMBER 15th
updated predictions

 

Tier 1 and 2 -
Predicted Frontrunners & Most Likely To... (7 of these feel *almost* certain)

Get Out

(Universal)
Jordan Peele 
Feb 24th

wins: --
noms: GothamBIFASpirit , NBR Top Ten , Critics Choice Nom , SAG (Ensemble), Globe


The biggest critical success of the first half of the year. If Universal campaigns well -- and they're planning a big one -- a resurgence seems likely unless critics and the media forget how much they loved it.

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 
(Fox Searchlight) 
Martin McDonagh
Oct 13th

wins: --
noms: BIFACritics Choice  ,Critics Choice (Ensemble) , SAG (Ensemble) Globe


The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF. Those usually make it in and the acting branch will probably love it

The Post

(Fox)
Steven Spielberg)
Dec 22nd

wins: NBR
noms:  Critics Choice , Critics Choice ( Ensemble) ,  Globe

Iconic director and Iconic stars deliver a for the moment true story abotu freedom of the press. Created in an Oscar bait lab but crowd pleasing. Could win if it's a hit.

Lady Bird 
(A24)
Greta Gerwig
Nov 10th

wins: NY
noms: Spirit  , NBR Top Ten , Critics Choice ,Critics Choice Nom (Ensemble) , SAG (Ensemble) Globe Nom


Response has been  ravealicious but Oscar is notoriously weird about women's pictures and youth films. Hence the inability to quite lock this one in.

Shape of Water 
(Fox Searchlight)
Guillermo del Toro
Dec 1st

wins: Venice
noms: Critics Choice ,| Globe

del Toro's beauty & the beast style romantic fantasy is getting adults weepy and it's lush to look at. Barring a shocker its in though it's lost steam a smidgeone since Venice.

If 6 then... If 7 then... If 8 then... If 9 then... If 10 then...

 

Dunkirk
(Warner Bros)
Chris Nolan
July 21st

wins: --
noms: NBR Top Ten , Critics Choice Critics Choice ( Ensemble) ,  SAG (Stunt Ensemble) ,  Globe

This WW II epic has it all (except maybe acting branch votes) including probably tech wins and audience love. Barring a weird forgetfulness, it's in.

 

Call Me By Your Name
(SPC)
Luca Guadagnino
Nov 24th

wins: LA
noms: Gotham , Spirit , NBR Top Ten ,  Critics ChoiceGlobe

Though a win seems farfetched -- it's not quite catching on in that way -- enough people respond to its first love Italian summer drama for a likely nomination.

The Big Sick
(Lionsgate)
Michael Showalter
June 23rd

wins: --
noms: Critics Choice ,| SAG (Ensemble)

A crowdpleaser and that can count for a lot with the right campaign. It's campaigned well and with perserverance. The SAG nomination might be the final boost it needs.

The Florida Project 
(A24)
Oct 5th
Sean Baker

wins: --
noms: Gotham , SpiritNBR Top Ten , Critics Choice

 Those who love it REALLY love it. But Lady Bird has stolen its thunder as A24's top film. Can it eke out a nomination?

Mudbound
(Netflix)
Dee Rees
Nov 17th

wins: --
noms:  Critics Choice (Ensemble)SAG (Ensemble)

Some in industry are still turned off by Netflix's unfair advantage being able to skip whims of box office. Doesn't bode well that Critics Choice (mainstream w/ zero issues with Netflix) didn't include it in "Picture".

 

 

Tier 3 - VOTE SIPHONERS / POTENTIAL SHOCKERS
If there's a surprising Best Pic nominee it's from this group

I Tonya
(Neon)
Craig Gillespie
Qualifying

wins: --
noms: Gotham ,Critics Choice (Comedy),  Globe

A crowd pleaser and Golden Globe force.  But its initial surprise heat didnt quite ever boil over.

Phantom Thread
(Focus)
PT Anderson 
Dec 25th

wins: --
noms: NBR Top Ten

Sight unseen it was still a major possibility given the creative team. Critics loved it but it still feels like it's opening too late.

Darkest Hour
(Focus)
Joe Wright
Nov 22nd

wins: --
noms:  Critics Choice

This government drama is not stuffy but highly cinematic. But people are still treating it like the former not the latter. Not loved quite enough.  

All the Money in the World
(Sony)
Ridley Scott
Dec 22nd


wins: --
noms: --

If Ridley pulls this off with that key cast change the narrative for a shock is there (see The Globe nods). But probably arriving too late. 

Wonder Woman
(Warner Bros)
Patty Jenkins
June 2nd

wins: --
noms: Critics Choice (Action only)SAG (Stunt Ensemble)

Everyone's favorite box office smash of the year. Too "superhero" for Oscar love but it still helped define the year so kudos!

 

 

TIER 4 - ALSO RANS
They have their fans but for various reasons (often genre or if not genre than quality perceptions) just weren't quite what awards season wanted in the top race though if history is any indication some will endure more than the most celebrated films. In no particular order...