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91st Oscars. Predicted Nominees of 2018 (2019 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

DECEMBER 7TH PREDICTIONS

Ranked by likelihood of nomination in the categories (these charts are not about wins - that comes after nominations). Arrows indicate movement since last chart. "Lock" images are only possible once a film has opened in theaters and met eligibility requirements. UPDATE: But, that said, the top 9 are really firming up and it's hard to imagine anything displacing them at this point... so the question becomes how many nominees from 5-10 do we get. We've yet to have a year other than an 8 or 9 wide race yet under the new voting system though anything from 5-10 is mathematically possible.

Tier 1 - Predicted Frontrunners

A Star is Born (Bradley Cooper) Warner Bros Oct 5th $197+ Domestic Gross Noms: NBR Top Ten, AFI Top Ten, Globes, Critics Choice, SAG (Ens) Wins: -- One of those miracle mainstream entertainment movies. Everything about it works. Will be a giant hit. REVIEW \| PODCAST \| SOUNDTRACK	Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) Netflix Nov 21st and streaming Dec 14th $N/A no real theatrical release (as usual Netflix refuses to release grosses) Noms: Spirit (Foreign), NBR Top Ten, Globes (Foreign) , Critics Choice Wins: NYFCC, BIFA (Foreign), AFI (Special Prize), AAFCA (Foreign) A directorial achievement par excellence and emotionally moving too... as long as they stay with it. It won't play well on screeners given the very very slow build. But it's awesome. REVIEW \| YALITZA	BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) Focus Features Aug 10th $48.2 Domestic Gross Noms: AFI Top Ten, Globes , Critics Choice, , SAG (Ens) Wins: -- Focus has ben able to keep it in the conversation despite the summer opening. It will surely (sadly) remain topical. A Best Pic / Director nod would do a lot to make up for Spike's shabby Oscar history that they surely feel guilty about. REVIEW \| PODCAST	Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) Disney/Marvel Feb 16th $700 Domestic Gross Noms: NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Globes, Critics Choice, Critics Choice (Ens & Action), , SAG (Ens) Wins: AAFCA The fear that they won't nominate this for Best Picture feels unfounded from where we sit. Oscar has a long history of moving outside of their comfort zone when something becomes an genuine phenomenon with general audiences (think The Fugitive, The Exorcist, Avatar, Beauty and the Beast, etc) BEST OF FIRST HALF	Green Book (Peter Farrelly) Universal Nov 21st $21+ Domestic Gross Noms: AFI Top 10, Globes , Critics Choice Wins: NBR, TIFF, Middleburg (People's Choice) That TIFF award always bodes well for Oscar play. Comparisons to Driving Miss Daisy are more complicated because time has not been kind to that picture. Some people are offended by the movie centering a white man, given the title which refers to a significant piece of African American cultural history. REVIEW \| PODCAST

Tier 3 - And a few of these but which... ?

Vice (Adam McKay) Annapurna Dec 21st $N/A Noms: Globes , Critics Choice , Critics Choice (Ens) Wins: -- Is anyone in the mood for a Bush era movie right now? If they are, perhaps this will shake up the race. Early buzz is gaga for the acting and that's the largest Academy branch. TRAILER	The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) Fox Searchlight Nov 23rd $3+ Domestic Gross Noms: Gotham, Spirit (Foreign), BIFA, AFI Top 10, Globes , Critics Choice , Critics Choice (Ensemble & Comedy) Wins: BIFA, Gotham (Ens) Reviews are ecstatic and Lanthimos cult has been building. Well loved triple actress threats should help, too. Now it faces box office. Can it generate audience excitement, too? REVIEW \| POSTER	Mary Poppins Returns (Rob Marshall) Disney Dec 25th $N/A Noms: NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Globes , Critics Choice Wins: -- Sure to be a hit when it opens but the question is 'how much of a hit?' If it's also instantly beloved you should expect some Oscar nominations but how many and will it be restricted only to technical fields or loved by each branch? TRAILER	If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) Annapurna Dec 14th $N/A Noms: Gotham, Spirit, Globes , NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Critics Choice Wins: AAFCA (Indie) Runner up People's Choice at TIFF which bodes well, since it doesn't play like a "crowd pleaser" but like a slow art piece drama. It's very beautiful to look at. REVIEW	First Reformed (Paul Schrader) A24 May 18th $3.4 Domestic Gross Noms: Gotham, Spirit, NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10 Wins: -- It's emerged as a formidable contender for the passion vote (and perhaps critics awards) and Schrader lack of previous Oscar nominations should be easily corrected. The Globes snub won't actually hurt. Not that kind of movie. REVIEW

Tier 3 - Wild Cards

First Man (Damien Chazelle) Universal Oct 12th $44+ Noms: Critics Choice Wins: -- Likely to appeal to several Oscar demographics and it's a beauty to look and listen to. That said the mediocre box office thus far is a problem as it's now perceived as a flop. REVIEW \| PODCAST	A Quiet Place (John Krasinski) Paramount April 6th $188 Domestic Gross Noms: NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Critics Choice (Scifi Horror) Wins: -- It's the year's biggest "original" hit, and Paramount hasn't given up with the campaigning (good on them). If Oscar voters are feeling populist this season there are much worse options they could go with! REVIEW	Crazy Rich Asians (Jon M Chu) Warner Bros Aug 15th $173+ Domestic Gross Noms: Globes , Critics Choice (Ens & Comedy), SAG (Ens) wins: NBR (Ens) If they take to heart all those complaints about ignoring popular cinema. The year's most lovable sleeper blockbuster. If they want to make a statement or if Golden Globe hoopla (likely) makes Oscar voters think twice and remember that they could also honor it... REVIEW \| PODCAST	Bohemian Rhapsody (Bryan Singer) Fox Nov 2nd $175+ Domestic Gross Noms: Globes, SAG (Ens) Wins: -- It's the only poorly reviewed movie in the Best Picture race but Globe & SAG response indicates its very well liked by its core fanbase. Those who are swept up in the Queen concerts (the music remains great) want encores. REVIEW \| PODCAST	Eighth Grade (Bo Burnham) A24 July 17th $13.5 Domestic Gross Noms: Spirit, NBR Top 10, AFI Top 10, Wins: -- If Oscar regularly went for films about contemporary teenagers or comedies this would be a shoo-in, given the big love out there. But alas... REVIEW \| PODCAST

Tier 4- Long Shots

Other Films with Awards Attention / Fan Bases Cold War (Amazon, Dec 21st) EFA Nomination Leader Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street, June 29th) Spirit Nominee, NBR Top 10 Indies The Rider (SPC, April) Gotham WINNER, NBR Top 10 Indies We the Animals (The Orchard, Aug 17th) Spirit Nomination Leader, Sundance NEXT prize, NBR Top 10 Indies You Were Never Really Here (Amazon, ) Spirit Nom, NBR Top 10 Indies Other Films That Might Have Pockets of 'Best Pic' Fans Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight, Oct 19th) Beautiful Boy (Amazon, Oct 12th) Boy Erased (Focus, Nov 2nd) Hereditary (A24, June 8th) Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar, June 15th) Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Paramount, July 27th) Widows (Fox, Nov 16th)