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91st Oscars. Oscar Nominees of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog



Tier 1a Predictions

First Man
(Damien Chazelle)
Oct 12th

Perfect release date. Preferred Oscar genre (true story/American history). Hot director and stars. We think it's in.

If Beale Street Could Talk
(Barry Jenkins)
Release TBA

Rich source material (a novel by James Baldwin) for one of Hollywood's best young directors. We think it's in.

Beautiful Boy
(Felix van Groenigen)
Oct 12th

Those who saw and loved Broken Circle Breakdown know that Groenigen is gifted as raw emotion and despair and catharsis which should help this addiction drama land with audiences. 

(Adam McKay)
Dec 21st

Annapurna is eager to get in the Oscar game and they're showing it with the films they're releasing this year including this all star Dick Cheney Bush era bio from the man behind The Big Short

(Mike Leigh)
Amazon TBA

The topic sounds a lot more visceral than Leigh's usual pieces (it's about the 1819 Peterloo Massacre in which the government attacked peaceful protestors) and could be timely for the now as well. If it's more accessible/successful than Mr Turner, we think it's in.

Tier 1b - And some of these... 

The Favourite
(Yorgos Lanthimos)
Fox Searchlight
Release TBA

One of the year's biggest curios. Lanthimos usually writes his own material and it's always contemporary. But this time directing someone else's screenplay about Queen Anne's royal court and jockeying to be her favorite. Intriguing. We're hoping for the best.

A Star is Born
(Bradley Cooper)
Warner Bros
Oct 5th

Could be a blockbuster. Could be a flop. Could be an amazing cinema. Could be a mess. We won't know until it arrives but this story has a way of resonating and morphing into something new each time Hollywood trots it out. 

Black Panther
(Ryan Coogler)
Feb 16th

It's the year's #1 film and possibly too big to ignore, especially because of it also has substance -- yes, in some ways its just another superhero film, but it pushed a lot of worthwhile discussions about representation onscreen towards the masses. 

Everybody Knows
(Asghar Farhadi)
Release TBA

Oscar voters are familiar with this Iranian master and love his work (two Oscars already. Could this Spanish language thriller with major movie stars take his career to another level of mainstream recognition. The trailer looks promising. 

Mary Poppins Returns
(Rob Marshall)
Dec 25th

Believe it or not Mary Poppins (1964) is still to date, Disney's only Live Action Best Picture nominee. They're surely hoping that the sequel will be a gigantic blockbuster AND followin in the original's Oscar footsteps.

Tier 2 - We might be underestimating...

(Steve McQueen)
Nov 16th

Geniuses in front of and behind the camera but what's the movie like? It's loosely based on a British miniseries about widows of criminals finishing their husbands work. We'll see. 

Where'd You Go Bernadette?
(Richard Linklater)
Oct 19th

Linklater is hard to pin down and this time his muse took him to adapting a bestseller about an anxiety ridden mother who pulls a disappearing act. 

Boy Erased
(Joel Edgerton)
Sept 28th

The subject of conversion therapy camps and homophobia are resonant fury-making topics. But will Edgerton have what it takes as a director to elevate it beyond well interntioned to vital? 

Mary, Queen of Scots
(Josie Rourke)
Dec 7th

Rourke is acclaimed in theater but cinema is a different beast. Will Oscar voters love this or feel like they've seen it all before (two previous Oscar nominated films have covered this story) 

The Sisters Brothers
(Jacques Audiard)

Audiard's films tend to be potent things -- will he translate into English cinema with this adaptation of the acclaimed novel?

Tier 3- Too early to rule anything out!

On the Basis of Sex
(Mimi Leder)
Release TBA

The topic is timely and could resonate but why no release date yet? Is the film a contender or just a standard biopic? 

The Front Runner
(Jason Reitman)
Release TBA

Reitman works fast. Tully is out next month and then comes this political tragicomedy about Gary Hart's affair and career collapse

(Alfonso Cuaron)
Release TBA

Cuaron returns to Mexico for a family drama. This could be a minor arthouse hit OR a critical Oscar sensation. But it's tough to know which until we see it.  

The Best of Enemies
(Robin Bissell)
Release TBA

Bissell has previously been a producer but he's moving into the director's chair for this story of a black activist and a KKK member who became friendly in North Carolina in the 1970s

The Women of Marwen
(Robert Zemeckis)
Nov 21st

Zemeckis attempts another live action rendition of a previously successful documentary. He didn't have success with his take on Man on Wire (called The Walk) but perhaps his take on Marwencol will prove magical?

Tier 4 - Other Movies of Interest

(Alphabetical Order)

The Aftermath (Fox Searchlight), BlackkKlansman (Focus),  Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight), Colette (Bleecker Street), Destroyer (TBA), Eighth Grade (A24), At Eternity's Gate (TBA), Gloria (TBA), Life Itself (Amazon), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney), Old Man and the Gun (Fox Searchlight), On the Basis of Sex (Focus), A Quiet Place (Paramount), Red Joan (TBA), Suspiria (Amazon), Under the Silver Lake (A24), What They Had (Bleecker Street)