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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

updated predictions


Tier 1a - The Five Predicted Frontruners

(Warner Bros)
Chris Nolan
July 21st

This WW II epic has it all (except maybe acting branch votes) including probably tech wins and audience love

Shape of Water 
(Fox Searchlight)
Guillermo del Toro
Dec 8th

del Toro's beauty & the beast style romantic fantasy is getting adults weepy and lush to look at. It's in.

Darkest Hour
Joe Wright
Nov 22nd

An accidental sibling drama to Dunkirk, this government drama is not stuffy but highly cinematic. Likely nominee in many categories

The Post
Steven Spielberg)
Dec 22nd

The top 'seems right on paper' contender of the year finds Spielberg in true story / freedom of press land with big stars. We'll see.

Call Me By Your Name
Luca Guadagnino
Nov 24th

Though a win seems farfetched enough people respond to its first love Italian summer drama for likely Picture love

Tier 1b - Other Possible Best Picture Players


Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
(Fox Searchlight) Martin McDonagh
Oct 13th

The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF. Those usually make it in and the acting branch will probably love it

Get Out
Jordan Peele
Feb 24th

The biggest critical success of the first half of the year. If Universal campaigns well, a resurgence seems likely with critical support


Dee Rees
Nov 17th

Buzz went a bit quiet after Sundance but here we go with festivals round two and people are loving it again. Can Netflix pull it off, though?

Todd Haynes
Oct 20th

Buzz has gone quiet since Cannes but it still seems like (past) time to welcome Haynes to the big race. The biggest will it or won't it contender. It would not be a shock to see it either a major player or snubbed altogether.

Wonder Wheel
Woody Allen
Dec 1st

With such a wide open race for Best Picture, might the latest Allen pull off a Midnight in Paris style surprise with love across the board?
Tier 2 - Long Shots or Healthy Competitors?

Lady Bird (A24)
Nov 10th
Greta Gerwig

Response was highly positive with its festival debut but Oscar is notoriously weird about women's pictures. We shall see.

The Florida Project (A24)
Oct 5th
Sean Baker

Could easily become a "cause" to get it nominated. Those who love it REALLY love it. But can A24 boost the wonderful Sean Baker's profile out of the micro indie world?

Phantom Thread
PT Anderson 
Dec 25th

Sight unseen it could be major. But we just have a hunch that DDL's reported swansong isn't going to be a huge player.


The Big Sick
Michael Showalter
June 23rd

A crowdpleaser and that can count for a lot with the right campaign. But can it find a second wind late in the year for a modestly made but funny love story?

Alexander Payne)
Dec 22nd

Extremely device. How to even keep track of its buzz which keeps going from "bomb" to "masterpiece" and back again

Tier 3 - A tougher journey but they still feel "in play"

All the Money in the World
Ridley Scott
Dec 8th

The trailer suggested this could be a hit and the story is fascinating. But Ridley Scott is quite an uneven giant

Blade Runner 2049
(Warner Bros)
Denis Villeneuve
Oct 6th

It will have to be brilliant to make a real Oscar impact - but it might be. We'll see.

The Greatest Showman
Michael Gracey
Dec 25th

Probably more of a commercial play but it'd be nice to have another musical in the mix. And in Wolverine's farewell tour year at that.

Wonder Woman
(Warner Bros)
Patty Jenkins
June 2nd

Everyone's favorite box office smash of the year. But probably too "superhero" for Oscar love. Warner Bros will try though.

Battle of the Sexes
(Fox Searchlight)
Sept 22nd

Initially discounted due to that Sept release date and tennis movies never faring all that well with the public, this had a warm festival response. Crowd pleaser?

Tier 4 - Vote siphoning films? They'll have their pockets of fans
  • Current War (Dec 22, Weinstein Co)
  • Detroit (August 4th, Annapurna)
  • Breathe (Bleecker Street, Oct 13th)
  • Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight, Oct 13th)
  • I Tonya (Qualifying?, Neon)
  • Last Flag Flying (Amazon, Nov 3rd)
  • Killing of a Sacred Deer (A24, Nov 3rd)
  • Logan (Fox, March 3rd)
  • mother! (Paramount, Sept 15th)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney, Dec 15th)
  • Stronger (Lionsgate, Sept 22)
  • Thank You For Your Service (Universal, Oct 27th)

moved to 2018

  • Mary Magdalene (Weinstein Co)
  • The Children Act (A24)