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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

OCTOBER 20th
updated predictions

 

Tier 1a - The Five Predicted Frontruners

Shape of Water 
(Fox Searchlight)
Guillermo del Toro
Dec 8th

del Toro's beauty & the beast style romantic fantasy is getting adults weepy and lush to look at. It's in.

Dunkirk
(Warner Bros)
Chris Nolan
July 21st

This WW II epic has it all (except maybe acting branch votes) including probably tech wins and audience love

Darkest Hour
(Focus)
Joe Wright
Nov 22nd

An accidental sibling drama to Dunkirk, this government drama is not stuffy but highly cinematic. Likely nominee in many categories

The Post
(Fox)
Steven Spielberg)
Dec 22nd

The top 'seems right on paper' contender of the year finds Spielberg in true story / freedom of press land with big stars. We'll see.

Call Me By Your Name
(SPC)
Luca Guadagnino
Nov 24th

 

Though a win seems farfetched enough people respond to its first love Italian summer drama for likely Picture love

Tier 1b - Other Possible Best Picture Players

 

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
(Fox Searchlight) Martin McDonagh
Oct 13th

 

The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF. Those usually make it in and the acting branch will probably love it

Get Out
(Universal)
Jordan Peele
Feb 24th

The biggest critical success of the first half of the year. If Universal campaigns well -- and they're planning a big one -- a resurgence seems likely unless critics and the media forget how much they loved it.

 

Mudbound
(Netflix)
Dee Rees
Nov 17th

Buzz went a bit quiet after Sundance but here we go with festivals round two and people are loving it again. Can Netflix pull this off, though?

Lady Bird (A24)
Nov 10th
Greta Gerwig

Response has been  highly positive but Oscar is notoriously weird about women's pictures and youth films. It's more niche than Juno, for example, but we shall see... 

 

 

The Big Sick
(Lionsgate)
Michael Showalter
June 23rd

A crowdpleaser and that can count for a lot with the right campaign. But can it find a second wind and a way in with less passion than expected for more traditional options?

 
Tier 2 - Long Shots or Healthy Competitors?

The Florida Project (A24)
Oct 5th
Sean Baker

Could easily become a "cause" to get it nominated. Those who love it REALLY love it. But can A24 boost the wonderful Sean Baker's profile out of the micro indie world?

Last Flag Flying
(Amazon)
Richard Linklater
Nov 3rd

 

There are so many 'will it or won't it' pictures this  year. Linklater is hit and miss with the Academy but this story of vets could factor in multiple categories

Wonder Woman
(Warner Bros)
Patty Jenkins
June 2nd

Everyone's favorite box office smash of the year. Probably too "superhero" for Oscar love but with a big campaign and other films not getting people passionate, it could resurface.

 

Battle of the Sexes
(Fox Searchlight)
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris
Sept 22nd

Initially discounted due to that Sept release date and tennis movies never faring all that well with the public. But it's had a warm response and it's resonant. Can Fox Searchlight make this happen?

Downsizing 

(Paramount)
Alexander Payne)
Dec 22nd

 

Extremely divisive. How to even keep track of its buzz which keeps going from "bomb" to "masterpiece" and back again

Tier 3 - A tougher journey but they still feel "in play"

The Greatest Showman
(Fox)
Michael Gracey
Dec 25th

 

Probably more of a commercial play but it'd be nice to have another musical in the mix. And in Wolverine's 'farewell tour' year at that.

Phantom Thread
(Focus)
PT Anderson 
Dec 25th

Sight unseen it could be major. But we just have a hunch that DDL's reported swansong isn't going to be a huge player.

Wonderstruck
(Amazon)
Todd Haynes
Oct 20th

Buzz has gone quiet since Cannes but it still seems like (past) time to welcome Haynes to the big race. The biggest will it or won't it contender. It would not be a shock to see it either a major player or snubbed altogether.

All the Money in the World
(Sony)
Ridley Scott
Dec 8th

 

The trailer suggested this could be a hit and the story is fascinating. But Ridley Scott is quite uneven as hugely famous directors go

Blade Runner 2049
(Warner Bros)
Denis Villeneuve
Oct 6th

It had to be brilliant and successful to make a heavy Oscar impact - so far it sort of is and sort of isn't. We shall see. 

 
Tier 4 - Vote siphoning films? They'll have their pockets of fans
  • Detroit (August 4th, Annapurna) surely too divisive
  • The Disaster Artist (A24)
  • I Tonya (Qualifying?, Neon) a likely Globe contender with the right push
  • Logan (Fox, March 3rd) the X-Men franchise has never really caught Oscar's eye
  • mother! (Paramount, Sept 15th) surely too divisive
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney, Dec 15th) if it didn't happen for The Force Awakens...

now looking at 2018

  • Current War (Weinstein Co)
  • Mary Magdalene (Weinstein Co)
  • The Children Act (A24)