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92nd Oscars. Predicted Nominees of 2019 (2020 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

SEPT 30TH PREDICTIONS

 

Tier 1a Predictions - The Frontrunners

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
(Marielle Heller)
Tri-Star
Nov 22nd

 Mr Rogers is a beloved cultural figure and though this isn't a biopic in the traditional sense, its a creative funny and quite moving take on his legacy. It would be shocking to see it snubbed, especially in a year where its humanity is so needed.

Marriage Story
(Noah Baumbach)
Netflix
Nov 6th

 Color us surprised. We'd written this off as 'well, Noah Baumbach is talented but not to Oscar's taste' ... and then we saw the movie. It plays like gangbusters (as funny as it is tearjerking) and would have been a hit in theaters had they risked that. Hell, in the 80s it would have been a Terms of Endearment size blockbuster

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
(Quentin Tarantino)
Columbia
July 26th

REVIEWED

 There's often one summer movie that goes the distance and given that this was a big hit, feels like a culmination of a major career, and is a movie about movies starring Hollywood's two most beloved golden sons, it feels like it's nearing "sure thing" status.

JoJo Rabbit
(Taiki Waititi)
Fox Searchlight
Nov 27th

TIFF People's Choice confirmed our April foolish prediction that this would be a major Oscar player. Fox Searchlight knows how to push their movies. That said satires can sometimes run into trouble with the easily offended and comedies can sometimes run into trouble with people who don't think they're funny. 

The Irishman

(Martin Scorsese)
Netflix
Nov 1st

Feels too predictable as a major contender right? And the length! Netflix will want this to be their next Roma but Marriage Story is right there. Scorsese has been to this well multiple times before which could help (nostalgically) but also could make it feel redundant.

 
Tier 1b - And a few of these ? 

1917
(Sam Mendes)
Universal
Dec 25th

An Oscar winning director with a big ambitious war epic with a cast filled with great actors? Oscar has liked those in the past. Will it be a late breaking giant in the race? Christmas seems like a late risky move for a war drama with no bankable stars but we'll see.

Ford v Ferrarri
(James Mangold)
Fox
Nov 15th

REVIEWED

Oscar prefers movies about men (sigh) and it's a handsome true story drama with very mainstream sensibilities. Still, if it isnt a hit, it's star will fade fast. Regardless, it'll show up in a few tech categories.

Parasite 

(Bong Joon-ho) 
Neon 
Oct 11th

We've yet to hear from one person who didn't rave about this movie so accessibility is there for the big race. A weak year for American pictures will also help it. Neon should push hard and hold lots of special screenings.

Joker

(Todd Philipps) 
Warner Bros 
Oct 4th

Coming strong out of the gate and we know that box office will be enormous (audiences are sooo predictable with comic book movies) plus it'll keep the editorials busy keeping it in the conversation. On the other hand all this controversy could bring it down with the ick factor.

Bombshell
(Jay Roach)
Lionsgate
Dec 20th

While Christmas week is not the Oscar magic wand that distributors (and pundits) are still absolutely convinced it is, one film that arrives at the last second usually has people crushing hard. We're wild-guessing that it'll be this one. (Think Vice last year)

 
Tier 2 - We might be underestimating...

Vote siphoners or sneak attack nominees?

  • Ad Astra
  • Avengers
  • Cats
  • Dark Waters
  • Harriet
  • Lighthouse
  • Pain & Glory
  • Queen & Slim
  • Star Wars Ep. 9
  • The Two Popes
  • Uncut Gems
  • Us

 

 

The Farewell
(Lulu Wang)
A24
July 12th

REVIEWED 

Its Sundance raves and blissful reviews actually translated into being an arthouse smash. How about that? Now a march toward Oscar nominations. Still, it'll need a strong campaign lest it fade into "screenplay only" territory where new indie classics sometimes land.

Little Women
(Greta Gerwig)
Columbia
Dec 25th

It's biggest test will be how fresh it feels, given that the story has been filmed several times. But if audiences are in the mood for it, and Academy voters aren't into some of the other big contenders, it could be huge.

Waves
(Trey Edward Shults)
A24
Nov 1st 

REVIEWED

Family dramas are so irregular now that we never know what to expect with Oscar. Will they go for this ambitious well-received one when Marriage Story is right there?

The Report
(Scott Z Burns)
Amazon
Nov 15th

REVIEWED

Had Oscar buzz out of Sundance and Hollywood is pissed off about GOP politics of late so the timing could be strong. But Amazon isn't playing confidently right now...