Predicted Nominees  - LOTS OF MOVEMENT ON THIS CHART

12 YEARS A SLAVE
Steve McQueen
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 18th

wins: Boston
+ 2 critics group
noms: Gotham, Spirit

GRAVITY
Alfonso Cuarón
(Warner Bros / Universal)
Oct 4th

wins: Los Angeles
noms: --

SAVING MR BANKS
John Lee Hancock
(Disney)
Dec 20th

wins: --
noms: --

NEBRASKA
Alexander Payne
(Paramount)
Nov 15th

wins: --
noms: Spirit

WOLF OF WALL STREET
Martin Scorsese
(Paramount)
Christmas

wins: --
noms: --

Can It Win?
Yes. It's "Important" and artful, the timing seems right (i.e. long delayed) Loss at regional critics prizes may actually help by killing oppressive frontrunner status

Working Against It
Challenging cinema will always win more admirers than lovers. Many people still resist acknowledging racism

More...

Pro:

Can it Win?
Yes. Grand Spectacles or 'event pictures' have won in the past... and they love a massive hit that's also critically hosanna'd. The tech fields will be all over it

Working Against It
Oscar often prefers 'Important' to 'Spectacle'. No sci-fi film has ever won

More...

Yes!
Mary Poppins was a huge Oscar hit and for its 40th anniversary a backstory twin with a great cast. A BP win would make a fun bit of movie on movie trivia

But!
Disney never manages live action Picture nominees and it's too sentimental / fluffy for some

More on this... plus
More on Mary Poppins 

Yes!
Father/Son dramas/comedies have a good track record of working for audiences and Oscar likes Payne. His latest has some of the strong laughs and peculiar charm

But!
It can't win on glitz since it doesn't have any. Detractors are tiring of Payne's awards luck

More...

Yes!
Scorsese. DiCaprio. High Energy. Christmas release will make it this year's Django since its just as irreverent from a revered master. Some critics are already veritably jerking off to it...

But!
... I can say that cuz it's filthy. Will definitely be too rude and risque and assaultive for some. Is anyone still rooting for Scorsese to stay fused to DiCaprio or vice versa? 

More...

Tier 2 - And Some of These...

CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Paul Greengrass
(Columbia)
Oct 11th

wins: --
noms: --

AMERICAN HUSTLE
David O. Russell
(Columbia)
Dec 13th

wins: New York
noms: --

HER
Spike Jonze
(Warner Bros)
Dec 18th

wins: NBR, Los Angeles
noms: --

PHILOMENA
Stephen Frears
(Weinstein Co)
Nov

wins: --
noms: --

INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
The Coen Bros
(CBS Films)

wins: Gotham
noms: Spirit

Yes!
Oscar loves Tom Hanks and true stories. Plus Greengrass has made a potent action/drama with a indisputably powerful ending. A great ending can go along way...

But!
Despite strong box office and reviews, it's been overshadowed all season thus far. Will it be the surprise shut-out?

More... 

Yes!
Great marketing and high energy film. The cast is on fire and the director continues his hot streak. It might mean an Oscar Inferno.

But!
It might not. Already a bit divisive and Wolf of fans already seem to resent its Scorsese-ness.  

More...

Yes!
Reviews are (mostly) rapturous and Jonze rarely disappoints. There's nothing else like it in the marketplace and standing out helps.

But!
It won't appeal to older people as much as the online generations. December seems like a weird time for a delicatedly sustained mood picture... 

More... 

Yes!
Dench, Screenplay, warmth, appeal to the key AMPAS demo (older white voters), and emotional hooks

But!
TWC has a very full slate and none, so far, seem to be doing Oscar bullseyes. Will they actually have to sit it out this year?

More...

Yes!
The Coen Bros fanbase is dependably excited with each new movie and the musical nature makes it stand out from the pack. Great reviews. Media seems, to my surprise, to be 100% behind making this happen despite that it's...

But!
chilly and depressing without feeling "important" 

More...

Tier 3 - Will the Globes, SAG, & Critics Choice Give Them the Boosts They Need?

FRUITVALE STATION
Ryan Coogler
(Weinstein Co)
July 26th

wins: plentiful first film prizes
noms: --

 LEE DANIELS' THE BUTLER
Lee Daniels
(Weinstein Co)
Aug 16th

wins: --
noms: --

BLUE JASMINE
Woody Allen
(SPC)
July 26th 

wins: --
noms: --

ALL IS LOST
J.C. Chandor
(Lionsgate)
Oct 25th 

wins: --
noms: Spirit

AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
John Wells
(Weinstein Co)
Christmas

wins: --
noms: --

Yes!
Contemporary dramas can be tougher sells than period pieces (which are often "safer" for not hurting as much -- the comfort of distance) but this one has youthful energy and good timing. Plentiful "first film" prizes are keeping it in the conversation

But! 
It didn't crossover at the box office. 

More...

Yes!
Oprah powered!  History lessons are always hot topic with Oscar, especially when it comes to civil rights, Dramas with major general audience box office usually a good bet for Oscar glroy.

But!
Who thinks it's genuinely "great"? #1 votes might be hard to come by

More...

Yes!
Cate Blanchett's potential steamroll journey in Best Actress will keep this memorable film in the conversation. And it's the kind of film whose flaws subside in memory and you're left with only "wow, I can't stop thinking about that"

But!
People don't love it with the fervor of, say, Midnight in Paris

More...

Yes!
One character in desperate survival mode is a major theme this year (see also: three of the other Best Picture hopefuls)! This feels right as a slow-building competitor

But!
One could argue that the other survival dramas will kill it. It's arguably less tense than Captain Phillipsless spectacular thanGravity, etcetera

More...

Yes!
Pulitzer & Tony have already rubber stamped Tracy Letts' masterwork and Oscar voters are hot for built-in prestige. Plus Meryl & an all star cast. 

But!
Reviews aren't what they probably hoped for. But still...  presold prestige can take you far. Doubt anyone?

More...

Bubbling Under. Vote Siphoning Via...

Rush (Universal) | Lone Survivor (Universal) |
Before Midnight (SPC) Gotham nomination | Prisoners (WB) | Dallas Buyers Club (Focus) 
Frances Ha (IFC) Spirits  | The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) |