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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
SEPTEMBER 19th
updated predictions
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Tier 1a - The Five Predicted Frontruners |
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Dunkirk
This WW II epic has it all (except maybe acting branch votes) including probably tech wins and audience love |
Shape of Water
del Toro's beauty & the beast style romantic fantasy is getting adults weepy and lush to look at. It's in. |
Darkest Hour An accidental sibling drama to Dunkirk, this government drama is not stuffy but highly cinematic. Likely nominee in many categories |
The Post The top 'seems right on paper' contender of the year finds Spielberg in true story / freedom of press land with big stars. We'll see. |
Call Me By Your Name
Though a win seems farfetched enough people respond to its first love Italian summer drama for likely Picture love |
| Tier 1b - Other Possible Best Picture Players | ||||
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Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF. Those usually make it in and the acting branch will probably love it |
Get Out The biggest critical success of the first half of the year. If Universal campaigns well, a resurgence seems likely with critical support
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Mudbound
Buzz went a bit quiet after Sundance but here we go with festivals round two and people are loving it again. Can Netflix pull it off, though? |
Wonderstruck
Buzz has gone quiet since Cannes but it still seems like (past) time to welcome Haynes to the big race. The biggest will it or won't it contender. It would not be a shock to see it either a major player or snubbed altogether. |
Wonder Wheel With such a wide open race for Best Picture, might the latest Allen pull off a Midnight in Paris style surprise with love across the board?
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| Tier 2 - Long Shots or Healthy Competitors? | ||||
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Lady Bird (A24)
Response was highly positive with its festival debut but Oscar is notoriously weird about women's pictures. We shall see. |
The Florida Project (A24)
Could easily become a "cause" to get it nominated. Those who love it REALLY love it. But can A24 boost the wonderful Sean Baker's profile out of the micro indie world? |
Phantom Thread |
The Big Sick A crowdpleaser and that can count for a lot with the right campaign. But can it find a second wind late in the year for a modestly made but funny love story? |
Downsizing
Extremely device. How to even keep track of its buzz which keeps going from "bomb" to "masterpiece" and back again |
| Tier 3 - A tougher journey but they still feel "in play" | ||||
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All the Money in the World
The trailer suggested this could be a hit and the story is fascinating. But Ridley Scott is quite an uneven giant |
Blade Runner 2049 It will have to be brilliant to make a real Oscar impact - but it might be. We'll see. |
The Greatest Showman
Probably more of a commercial play but it'd be nice to have another musical in the mix. And in Wolverine's farewell tour year at that. |
Wonder Woman Everyone's favorite box office smash of the year. But probably too "superhero" for Oscar love. Warner Bros will try though. |
Battle of the Sexes
Initially discounted due to that Sept release date and tennis movies never faring all that well with the public, this had a warm festival response. Crowd pleaser? |
| Tier 4 - Vote siphoning films? They'll have their pockets of fans | ||||
moved to 2018
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