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The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

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Personal Ballot: Best Supporting Actress

"Must admit to not having seen "20th Century Women" yet. I'm already an Elle Fanning admirer. So I'm looking forward to seeing whether she or Greta Gerwig can shake up my list." - Ken

INTERVIEWS

Pablo Larraín (Jackie)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Gael García Bernal (Neruda)
Billy Crudup (20th Century Women)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival

 

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 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

And now January 11th Predictions - Final Predictions
discuss 

Tier 1 - Top Tier. Hard to image the Oscar list without them

LA LA LAND
(Lionsgate)
Damien Chazelle
Dec 9th
Box Office $74+

A RARITY | PODCASTBRIEF REVIEW | 2ND TAKE | LA LA INFLUENCES

NBR top ten, 7 GlobesCritics Choice, NYFCC Winner, BAFTA Nominee, PGA Nom, DGA Nom

My wild card pick from April is looking like the one to beat. Trivia Fun: a contemporary live action movie musical with original songs hasn't been nominated in decades. The last one was Doctor Dolittle in 1967 or Nashille in 1975 if you count non-traditional musicals. Can you can believe it!?

MOONLIGHT 
(A24)
Barry Jenkins
Oct 21st
Box Office $14+ 

REVIEWED & PODCAST & THAT SCORE!

1 GlobeGotham Winner, NBR Director, NBR top tenCritics Choice Top Ten, Globe nod ,  SAG Ensemble NomBAFTA NomineePGA NomDGA Nom

 This picture is superbly rendered. But it's also gay themed which could deter Oscar love for wins (examples are endless including Carol just missing Best Pic last year). Still, the critics have rallied so a handful of nods are coming its way at least.

 

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(Amazon/Roadside)
Kenneth Lonergan
Nov 18th
Box Office $36+

REVIEWED | 2ND TAKE | 3RD TAKE

Gotham Nom, NBR Best Film, Critics Choice Top Ten, Globe nod,  SAG Ensemble NomBAFTA NomineePGA NomDGA Nom

 We started hearing "lock" as early as January for this Sundance drama from Lonergan (You Can Count On Me) and this time it appears to have been true. This depressing drama of an uncle and nephew losing a family member is a 'male tearjerker'. Audiences turned out and that's always a great sign for a drama.

 

 

 

ARRIVAL
(Paramount)
Denis Villeneuve
Nov 11th
Box Office $95+

REVIEWED & PODCAST

NBR top ten, Critics Choice Top TenBAFTA NomineePGA NomDGA Nom

TFE kept predicting Villeneuve's movies to be major players and it looks like one of them finally is. Arrival gets people talking and is proving popular with audiences. That can go a long long way with Oscar love when the film is also this good. But is the sci-fi genre holding back it being a frontrunner?

HELL OR HIGH WATER
(CBS Films/Lionsgate)
David Mackenzie
Aug 12th
Box Office $27 

REVIEWED & PRODUCTION DESIGN

NBR top ten, Critics Choice Top Ten, Globe nod PGA Nom

 Sleeper hits of quality can sometimes be catnip for voters. They feel more like discoveries than preordained contenders. The Best Picture nomination seems assured for this but its hopes in other categories remain more touch and go.
Tier 2 - There can be up to 10 Nominees. But how many will we get and which of these might be the lucky ones?

 

LION 
(Weinstein Co)
Garth Davis
Nov 25th
Box Office $13+

REVIEWED & PODCAST & NICOLE CHAT

Critics Choice Top Ten, Globe nod PGA NomDGA Nom

 This true story about an Indian man (played by Dev Patel) searching for his origins after being adopted and raised in Australia (Nicole Kidman is mommy) has has precursor awards crying. Regular audiences haven't embraced as fully though. Perhaps they will post Oscar nods?  

 

 

HIDDEN FIGURES
(Fox)
Theodore Melfi
Qualifying
Box Office $55+

PODCAST

NBR top ten,  SAG Ensemble NomPGA Nom

This drama about female mathematicians at NASA is that rare thing -- a message movie that feels light and inspiring without being shallow. Audiences love it and Oscar is likely to follow. 

 

HACKSAW RIDGE
(Fox)
Mel Gibson
November 2nd
Box Office $65+

 NBR top ten, Critics Choice Top Ten, Globe nod PGA Nom

Mel Gibson's "comeback" didn't quite explode at the box office given the populist genre of the action/war movie. But precursors really rallied and made it an awards season big deal. Will Oscar reembrace Gibson and ignore the movie's weird gore-loving pacificism?

 

NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
(Focus Features)
Tom Ford
November 17th
Box Office $10+

REVIEWED , 2ND TAKE, & PODCAST

 If nominated it will be the most polarizing of the Best Picture nominees but somehow its fans are rallying despite its superficial ugliness and bone deep misanthropy. It's a true wild card (many nominations or none?)

 

 

FENCES
(Paramount)
Denzel Washington
Dec 25th
Box Office $45+

TEASER and HIS & HERS OSCARS

Critics Choice Top Ten,  SAG Ensemble NomPGA Nom

It's a hit and the acting is super-califragi-listic but its detractors are so damn noisy with their "too stagey" nonsense. Um, it's meant to be closed in like that! Other late December releases have stolen some of its thunder.

 

 
Tier 3 - Conceivable Long Shots...

 

 

 LOVING
(Focus Features)
Jeff Nichols
Nov 4th 
Box Office $7+ 

BRIEF REVIEW & PODCAST

Critics Choice Top Ten

 A documentary about this interracial married couple got some small attention but Nichols narrative version has won much praise. It's a little quiet and reserved for typical Oscar heat... but if it makes the list we won't be able to call it a surprise.

JACKIE
(Fox Searchlight)
Pablo Larraîn
December 16th
Box Office $10+

REVIEWED & PODCAST & PRODUCTION DESIGN & SCORE

The picture's quality as well as its "I remember this" appeal to older voters and that grabby central performance made this one look likely despite its chilly anger. But it appears to have been too chilly and challenging for mainstream voters as its been struggling in precursor awards.

SULLY
(Warner Bros)
Clint Eastwood
Sept 9th
Box Office $124.5

REVIEWED & PODCAST

NBR top ten, Critics Choice Top Ten

 Eastwood misses as often as he hits but this was greeted warmly at the box office and Tom Hanks underrappreciated current magic could actually help motivate people to vote for this. On the other hand it's prospects have been fading as the season wore on.

 

Vote Siphoners
(Loud fans
but Picture nod feels like a stretch)

DEADPOOL - too superhero sassy 
20th CENTURY WOMEN -too late
ZOOTOPIA - too has its own category
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC - too indie
ELLE - too controversial
OJ MADE IN AMERICA - hopefully too miniseries made for television. (If nominated, the Academy has basically turned their back on their whole reason for existing) 

Even less luck with precursors but they have devotees
LOVE & FRIENDSHIP - too taken for granted
SILENCE - too "specialty" for buzz
AMERICAN HONEY - too niche
TONI ERDMANN -has its own category
THE HANDMAIDEN -too outre