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92nd Oscars. Predicted Nominees of 2019 (2020 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
SEPT 30TH PREDICTIONS
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Tier 1a Predictions - The Frontrunners |
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A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Mr Rogers is a beloved cultural figure and though this isn't a biopic in the traditional sense, its a creative funny and quite moving take on his legacy. It would be shocking to see it snubbed, especially in a year where its humanity is so needed. |
Marriage Story
Color us surprised. We'd written this off as 'well, Noah Baumbach is talented but not to Oscar's taste' ... and then we saw the movie. It plays like gangbusters (as funny as it is tearjerking) and would have been a hit in theaters had they risked that. Hell, in the 80s it would have been a Terms of Endearment size blockbuster |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood There's often one summer movie that goes the distance and given that this was a big hit, feels like a culmination of a major career, and is a movie about movies starring Hollywood's two most beloved golden sons, it feels like it's nearing "sure thing" status. |
JoJo Rabbit
TIFF People's Choice confirmed our April foolish prediction that this would be a major Oscar player. Fox Searchlight knows how to push their movies. That said satires can sometimes run into trouble with the easily offended and comedies can sometimes run into trouble with people who don't think they're funny. |
The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)
Feels too predictable as a major contender right? And the length! Netflix will want this to be their next Roma but Marriage Story is right there. Scorsese has been to this well multiple times before which could help (nostalgically) but also could make it feel redundant. |
| Tier 1b - And a few of these ? | ||||
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1917 |
Ford v Ferrarri
Oscar prefers movies about men (sigh) and it's a handsome true story drama with very mainstream sensibilities. Still, if it isnt a hit, it's star will fade fast. Regardless, it'll show up in a few tech categories. |
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho)
We've yet to hear from one person who didn't rave about this movie so accessibility is there for the big race. A weak year for American pictures will also help it. Neon should push hard and hold lots of special screenings. |
Joker (Todd Philipps)
Coming strong out of the gate and we know that box office will be enormous (audiences are sooo predictable with comic book movies) plus it'll keep the editorials busy keeping it in the conversation. On the other hand all this controversy could bring it down with the ick factor. |
Bombshell While Christmas week is not the Oscar magic wand that distributors (and pundits) are still absolutely convinced it is, one film that arrives at the last second usually has people crushing hard. We're wild-guessing that it'll be this one. (Think Vice last year) |
| Tier 2 - We might be underestimating... | ||||
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Vote siphoners or sneak attack nominees?
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The Farewell
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Little Women It's biggest test will be how fresh it feels, given that the story has been filmed several times. But if audiences are in the mood for it, and Academy voters aren't into some of the other big contenders, it could be huge. |
Waves
Family dramas are so irregular now that we never know what to expect with Oscar. Will they go for this ambitious well-received one when Marriage Story is right there? |
The Report
Had Oscar buzz out of Sundance and Hollywood is pissed off about GOP politics of late so the timing could be strong. But Amazon isn't playing confidently right now... |
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Its Sundance raves and blissful reviews actually translated into being an arthouse smash. How about that? Now a march toward Oscar nominations. Still, it'll need a strong campaign lest it fade into "screenplay only" territory where new indie classics sometimes land.