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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

 

Tier 1a - Predicted Frontruners

Darkest Hour
(Focus)
Joe Wright
Nov 24th

Wright makes classy dramas but they're usually more feminine than this Churchill war pic and Oscar likes masculine drama. A good bet sight unseen

Dunkirk
(Warner Bros)
Chris Nolan
July 21st

Nolan is surely the most beloved (by audiences) filmmaker Oscar still keeps at somewhat of an arms length. Will a war drama without super powers fix that?

The Greatest Showman
(Fox)
Michael Gracey
Dec 25th

If it builds on the people love musicals momentum and it's actually good, watch out. Hugh Jackman is due for some industry love, isn't he in his Wolverine wrap up year

Detroit
(Annapurna)
Kathryn Bigelow
Aug 4th

The only female director winner is back with another hot button drama, this one taking on the Detroit Riots. Sure to be a feature of innumerable editorials.

Wonderstruck
(Amazon)
Todd Haynes
TBA

If he can build on the Carol esteem (a masterful reminder of his gifts after years away from movie theaters) and if this is a success with audiences, it could be a big Oscar breakthrough

Tier 1b - More Predicted Nominees

Get Out
(Universal)
Jordan Peele
Feb 24th

Hear me out. Genre pics need time to settle in as "great". This one's got it. Think Silence of the Lambs slow build. It's already shown true staying power.

The Current War
(Weinstein Co)
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon
Dec 22nd

Oscar likes a true story about inspirational men. But will Gomez-Rejon be able to vault into the big leagues with this electricity battle or will it be too dry?

Mudbound
(Netflix)
Dee Rees
TBA

It was all the rage at Sundance but Netflix as distributor may actually hurt it since you need theatrical feel for Oscar. We'll see how well they campaign.

The Killing of a Sacred Deer

(A24)
Yorgos Lanthimos
Nov 3rd

Can Lanthimos graduate from critical darling and niche Oscar player (foreign film / screenplay) to something more across-the-board?

The Snowman
(Universal)
Tomas Alfredson
Oct 13th

Alfredson is an amazing serious filmmaker. Will Oscar finally come around with this murder mystery?

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Call Me By Your Name
(SPC)
Luca Guadagnino
Nov 24th

Another Sundance sensation but will Oscar really embrace two gay dramas in a row? Especially one that's way more sexual than Moonlight?

The Post
(Fox)
Steven Spielberg)
TBA

If it's finished in time this true journalism story from Spielberg could be huge. But on the other hand: Spielberg + Hanks + Streeps feels too easy. Like created in a lab for this type of 'before we see it' chart

Blade Runner 2049
(Warner Bros)
Denis Villeneuve
Oct 6th

Will the original film's now classic status help or hinder this one being recognized? Can it possibly live up to the hype or will it be a craft play only? Oscar has somewhat warmed to sci-fi lately

Mother!
Darren Aronofsky
???

Reportedly psychological horror in the Black Swan vein. It's been so secretive we can only speculate about...well... everything about it. Will it be too genre, or just the right blend of drama and thriller?

Breathe
(Bleecker Street)
Andy Serkis
Oct 13th

If Oscar is feeling the sentimental true inspirational stories this year, here's another in the Theory of Everything vein.

Tier 3 - But it's too early to rule any of these out

Mary Magdalene
(Weinstein Co)
Garth Davis
Nov 24th

If Davis can build on that Lion success with this Biblical drama, it could have a shot. But will it prove too controversial or strange? 

Wonder
(Lionsgate)
Stephen Chobsky
Nov 17th

Will they be in the mood for inspirational drama? We shall see. 

Goodbye Christopher Robin
(Fox Searchlight)
Simon Curtis 
Nov 10th

This AA Milne biopic might be a bit old fashioned for new crazier Oscar lineups -- but you never know. Good release date.

Glass Castle
(Lionsgate)
Destin Daniel Cretton
TBA

Short Term 12 was awesome. Will the reunion of Cretton and Brie Larson be as wonderful as we hope? 

Untitled PT Anderson
(Focus)
PT Anderson 
Dec 25th

Christmas seems like a late call for a sober period drama. And Anderson doing a fashion related film? What to make of this?

 
Tier 4 - This early anything feels possible depending on box office, critical respect, precursor love, and zeitgeist fever
  • Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight, Dayton & Faris, Sept 22nd)
  • Beguiled (Focus, Sofia Coppola, June 13th)
  • Downsizing (Paramount, Alexander Payne)
  • Film Stars Dont Die in Liverpool (TBA, Paul McGuigan, TBA)
  • Logan (Fox, James Mangold, March 3rd)
  • The Last Jedi (Disney, Rian Johnson, Dec 15th)
  • Marshall (Open Road, Reginald Hudlin, Oct 13th)
  • Mountain Between Us (Fox, Hany Abu-Assad, Oct 20th)
  • Murder on the Orient Express (Fox, Kenneth Branagh, Nov 22nd)
  • On Chesil Beach (TBA, TBA, Dominic Cooke)
  • Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight, Guillermo del Toro, Dec 8th)
  • Stronger (Lionsgate, David Gordon Green, Sept 22)
  • Suburbicon (Paramount, George Clooney, Nov 3rd)
  • Thank You For Your Service (Universal, Jason Hall, Oct 27th)
  • Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight, Martin McDonagh, October 13th)
  • Untitled PT Anderson (Focus, PT Anderson, Dec 25th)
  • Victoria and Abdul (Focus, Stephen Frears, TBA)