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The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

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 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

91st Oscars. Predicted Nominees of 2018 (2019 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

 

OCTOBER 16TH  PREDICTIONS

Ranked by likelihood of nomination in the categories (these charts are not about wins - that comes after nominations). Arrows indicate movement since last chart. "Lock" images are only possible once a film has opened in theaters and met eligibility requirements.

Tier 1 - Predicted Frontrunners

A Star is Born
(Bradley Cooper)
Warner Bros
Oct 5th

One of  those miracle mainstream entertainment movies. Everything about it works. Will be a giant hit.

REVIEW | TRAILER | GAGA IN PINK

Black Panther
(Ryan Coogler)
Disney/Marvel
Feb 16th

The fear that they won't nominate this for Best Picture feels unfounded from where we sit. Oscar has a long history of moving outside of their comfort zone when something becomes an genuine phenomenon with general audiences (think The Fugitive, The Exorcist, Avatar, Beauty and the Beast, etc)

BEST OF FIRST HALF

Roma

(Alfonso Cuaron)
Netflix
Dec 14th

A directorial achievement par excellence and emotionally moving too... as long as they stay with it. It won't play well on screeners given the very very slow build. But it's awesome.

REVIEW |  VENICE REACTIONS

The Favourite
(Yorgos Lanthimos)
Fox Searchlight
Nov 23rd

Early reviews are ecstatic and Lanthimos cult has been building. Well loved triple actress threats should help, too.

REVIEW | POSTER | TRAILER

  Green Book
(Peter Farrelly)
Fox
Nov 21st

That TIFF People's Choice award always bodes well. So do comparisons to Driving Miss Daisy (no matter how facile they are, given that film's Oscar success)

TIFF PEOPLE'S CHOICE

 
Tier 3 - And a few of these but which... ?

 

First Man
(Damien Chazelle)
Universal
Oct 12th

Likely to appeal to several Oscar demographics and it's a beauty to look and listen to. That said the mediocre box office thus far could be a problem as could screeners when it needs huge screens.

REVIEWTRAILER | VENICE REACTIONS

BlacKkKlansman
(Spike Lee)
Focus Features
Aug 10th

Can Focus keep this in the conversation despite the summer opening. It will surely (sadly) remain topical. We think it still has a good shot at a Best Pic nod given the mainstream appeal and Spike's shabby Oscar history that they surely feel guilty about. 

REVIEW | PODCAST

 If Beale Street Could Talk
(Barry Jenkins)
Annapurna
Nov 30th

A runner up for the People's Choice at TIFF which bodes well, since it doesn't play like a "crowd pleaser" but like a slow art piece drama. It's very beautiful to look at. 

REVIEW | TRAILER 

  Widows
(Steve McQueen)
Fox
Nov 16th

It's tough to tell if this will be a merely commercial hit or an Oscar player and could easily go either way since it's a strong suspenseful entertainment.

REVIEW | TRAILER 

Mary Poppins Returns
(Rob Marshall)
Disney 
Dec 25th

Sure to be a hit when it opens but the question is 'how much of a hit?' If it's also instantly beloved you should expect some Oscar nominations but how many and will it be restricted only to technical fields or loved by each branch?

TRAILER

 
Tier 3 - Wild Cards

Vice
(Adam McKay)
Annapurna
Dec 21st

Is anyone in the mood for a Bush era movie right now? If they are, perhaps this will shake up the race at Christmas time. If not it could be a future 'this had Oscar buzz' episode.

TRAILER

Can You Ever Forgive Me
(Marielle Heller)
Fox Searchlight
October 19th

A wonderfully moving surprise with two terrific performances. That said the topic might be too niche for the larger Academy beyond the actors and writer's branches.

REVIEW 

The Mule
(Clint Eastwood)
Warner Bros
Dec 14th

If the critics rally behind this drug war drama about a 90 year old man and if Oscar wants to reward (again) their favorite Republican... maybe. But I currently doubt it.

TRAILER

Crazy Rich Asians
(Jon M Chu)
Warner Bros
Aug 15th

If they take to heart all those complaints about ignoring popular cinema. The year's most lovable sleeper blockbuster. If they want to make a statement or if Golden Globe hoopla (likely) makes Oscar voters think twice and remember that they could also honor it...

 REVIEW | PODCAST

A Quiet Place
(John Krasinski)
Paramount
April 6th

If they take to heart all those complaints about ignoring popular cinema. The year's biggest 'original' hit. The question is how big of a campaign it will get? And can they nudge members into remembering it exists?

REVIEW | 2ND OPINION

 

 
Tier 4- Long Shots

They Have Their Fans

At Eternity's Gate (CBS Films, Nov 16th)
Beautiful Boy
(Amazon, Oct 12th)
Boy Erased (Focus, Nov 2nd)
Cold War
(Amazon, Dec 21st)
Creed II (MGM) 
Eighth Grade (A24, August 3rd)
The Front Runner (Columbia, Nov 21st) 
Hereditary (A24, June 8th)
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar, June 15th) 
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus, Dec 7th)
Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Paramount, July 27th) 
A Quiet Place (Paramount, April 6th)
Welcome to Marwen (Universal, Nov 21st)
Wildlife
(IFC, Oct 19th)