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91st Oscars. Predicted Nominees of 2018 (2019 Ceremony)- For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

 

DECEMBER 7TH PREDICTIONS

Ranked by likelihood of nomination in the categories (these charts are not about wins - that comes after nominations). Arrows indicate movement since last chart. "Lock" images are only possible once a film has opened in theaters and met eligibility requirements. UPDATE: But, that said, the top 9 are really firming up and it's hard to imagine anything displacing them at this point... so the question becomes how many nominees from 5-10 do we get. We've yet to have a year other than an 8 or 9 wide race yet under the new voting system though anything from 5-10 is mathematically possible.

Tier 1 - Predicted Frontrunners

A Star is Born
(Bradley Cooper)
Warner Bros
Oct 5th
$197+ Domestic Gross

Noms: NBR Top Ten, AFI Top Ten, GlobesCritics Choice, SAG (Ens)
Wins: -- 

One of  those miracle mainstream entertainment movies. Everything about it works. Will be a giant hit.

REVIEW | PODCAST
  | SOUNDTRACK

 

Roma

(Alfonso Cuaron)
Netflix
Nov 21st
and streaming Dec 14th
$N/A no real theatrical release (as usual Netflix refuses to release grosses)

NomsSpirit (Foreign),  NBR Top Ten, Globes (Foreign) Critics Choice
WinsNYFCCBIFA (Foreign)AFI (Special Prize), AAFCA (Foreign)

 A directorial achievement par excellence and emotionally moving too... as long as they stay with it. It won't play well on screeners given the very very slow build. But it's awesome.

 

REVIEW | YALITZA 

BlacKkKlansman
(Spike Lee)
Focus Features 
Aug 10th
$48.2 Domestic Gross 

NomsAFI Top Ten, Globes Critics Choice, SAG (Ens)
Wins: -- 

 Focus has ben able to keep it in the conversation despite the summer opening. It will surely (sadly) remain topical. A Best Pic / Director nod would do a lot to make up for Spike's shabby Oscar history that they surely feel guilty about. 

 

REVIEW |
 
PODCAST

Black Panther
(Ryan Coogler)
Disney/Marvel
Feb 16th
$700 Domestic Gross 

Noms:  NBR Top 10
AFI Top  10, Globes,
Critics ChoiceCritics Choice (Ens & Action), SAG (Ens)
Wins: AAFCA

The fear that they won't nominate this for Best Picture feels unfounded from where we sit. Oscar has a long history of moving outside of their comfort zone when something becomes an genuine phenomenon with general audiences (think The Fugitive, The Exorcist, Avatar, Beauty and the Beast, etc)

BEST OF FIRST HALF

Green Book
(Peter Farrelly)
Universal
Nov 21st
$21+ Domestic Gross 

Noms: AFI Top 10,
Globes Critics Choice
Wins:  NBR, TIFF, Middleburg (People's Choice)

 That TIFF award always bodes well for Oscar play. Comparisons to Driving Miss Daisy are more complicated because time has not been kind to that picture. Some people are offended by the movie centering a white man, given the title which refers to a significant piece of African American cultural history.

 

REVIEW | PODCAST

 
Tier 3 - And a few of these but which... ?

Vice
(Adam McKay)
Annapurna
Dec 21st
$N/A 

NomsGlobes Critics Choice Critics Choice (Ens)
Wins: --

Is anyone in the mood for a Bush era movie right now? If they are, perhaps this will shake up the race. Early buzz is gaga for the acting and that's the largest Academy branch.

TRAILER

 

The Favourite

(Yorgos Lanthimos)
Fox Searchlight 
Nov 23rd
$3+ Domestic Gross 

NomsGotham,  Spirit (Foreign),  BIFAAFI Top 10Globes Critics Choice Critics Choice (Ensemble & Comedy)
WinsBIFAGotham (Ens)

 Reviews are ecstatic and Lanthimos cult has been building. Well loved triple actress threats should help, too. Now it faces box office. Can it generate audience excitement, too?

 

REVIEW | POSTER 

Mary Poppins Returns
(Rob Marshall)
Disney 
Dec 25th
$N/A 

Noms:  NBR Top 10
AFI Top 10, Globes Critics Choice
Wins: --

Sure to be a hit when it opens but the question is 'how much of a hit?' If it's also instantly beloved you should expect some Oscar nominations but how many and will it be restricted only to technical fields or loved by each branch?

TRAILER

If Beale Street
Could Talk
(Barry Jenkins)
Annapurna
Dec 14th
$N/A 

Noms: Gotham, Spirit, Globes , NBR Top 10,
 
AFI Top 10
Critics Choice
Wins: AAFCA (Indie)

Runner up People's Choice at TIFF which bodes well, since it doesn't play like a "crowd pleaser" but like a slow art piece drama. It's very beautiful to look at. 

REVIEW 

First Reformed

(Paul Schrader)
A24
May 18th
$3.4 Domestic Gross 

NomsGothamSpirit,  NBR Top 10
AFI Top 10
Wins: --

It's emerged as a formidable contender for the passion vote (and perhaps critics awards) and Schrader lack of previous Oscar nominations should be easily corrected. The Globes snub won't actually hurt. Not that kind of movie. 

REVIEW 

 
Tier 3 - Wild Cards

First Man

(Damien Chazelle)
Universal 
Oct 12th
$44+ 

Noms: Critics Choice
Wins: --

Likely to appeal to several Oscar demographics and it's a beauty to look and listen to. That said the mediocre box office thus far is a problem as it's now perceived as a flop.

REVIEW | 
PODCAST 

A Quiet Place

(John Krasinski)
Paramount
April 6th
$188 Domestic Gross 

Noms: NBR Top 10AFI Top 10, Critics Choice (Scifi Horror)
Wins: --

It's the year's biggest "original" hit, and Paramount hasn't given up with the campaigning (good on them). If Oscar voters are feeling populist this season there are much worse options they could go with!

REVIEW

Crazy Rich Asians
(Jon M Chu)
Warner Bros
Aug 15th
$173+ Domestic Gross 

NomsGlobes Critics Choice (Ens & Comedy), SAG (Ens)
wins:  NBR (Ens)

If they take to heart all those complaints about ignoring popular cinema. The year's most lovable sleeper blockbuster. If they want to make a statement or if Golden Globe hoopla (likely) makes Oscar voters think twice and remember that they could also honor it...

 REVIEW |
 PODCAST


Bohemian
Rhapsody
(Bryan Singer)
Fox
Nov 2nd
$175+ Domestic Gross 

Noms: Globes, SAG (Ens)
Wins: --

It's the only poorly reviewed movie in the Best Picture race but Globe & SAG response indicates its very well liked by its core fanbase. Those who are swept up in the Queen concerts (the music remains great) want encores.

REVIEW | 
PODCAST

Eighth Grade
(Bo Burnham)
A24
July 17th
$13.5 Domestic Gross 

Noms: Spirit
NBR Top 10,
AFI Top 10,
Wins: --

If Oscar regularly went for films about contemporary teenagers or comedies this would be a shoo-in, given the big love out there. But alas...

REVIEW | PODCAST

 
Tier 4- Long Shots

Other Films with Awards Attention / Fan Bases

Cold War (Amazon, Dec 21st) EFA Nomination Leader
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street, June 29th) Spirit NomineeNBR Top 10 Indies
The Rider (SPC, April) Gotham WINNERNBR Top 10 Indies
We the Animals (The Orchard, Aug 17th)  Spirit Nomination Leader,  Sundance NEXT prizeNBR Top 10 Indies
You Were Never Really Here (Amazon, ) Spirit Nom,  NBR Top 10 Indies

Other Films That Might Have Pockets of 'Best Pic' Fans

Can You Ever Forgive Me?  (Fox Searchlight, Oct 19th)
Beautiful Boy
(Amazon, Oct 12th)
Boy Erased (Focus, Nov 2nd)
Hereditary (A24, June 8th)
Incredibles 2 (Disney/Pixar, June 15th)
Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Paramount, July 27th) 
Widows (Fox, Nov 16th)