Oscar Predix: Which actors will have big years?

by Nathaniel R

Jonathan Bailey in WICKED FOR GOOD

This post's titular prompt question is not quite the same as "Who will be Oscar nominated this coming winter?" but having a big year in your career never hurts in gaining awards traction... or at least momentum for a future year. Will Jonathan Bailey's suddenly A-list career (with two potential giant blockbusters in a span of five months) convince Oscar voters that his SAG nomination last year should be mirrored with an Oscar nod for Best Supporting Actor? Will Sinners cultural dominance this spring help Michael B Jordan and Delroy Lindo land their first overdue Oscar nods early next year or will the zeitgiest move on?

These are just a couple of the questions I've been asking myself about the upcoming Oscar races for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor but there's more after the jump...

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Oscar Predix: Which Animated Films Should We Watch Out For?

by Nathaniel R

Can ZOOTOPIA 2 overcome the Academy's resistance to animated sequels?

It's often hard to know from a distance whether a year will be competitive in Best Animated Feature or not. It isn't always based on the quality of the eligibility pool. The default situation is that the early hyped Disney or Disney/Pixar stays dominant from first buzz to Oscar night, whether there's week or strong competition (Coco  and Toy Story 4, respectively, being good examples) though occassionally the Mouse House competitor that looks strongest from a distance concedes quickly to a less hyped sibling that proves more popular (Luca to Encanto or Moana to Zootopia). But in a solid amount of years the race eventually does get competitive albeit only between two films.What usually happens is that the original frontrunner manages to stave off an unexpectedly strong or deserving competition (Pinocchio vs Puss in Boots: The Last Wish or Soul vs Wolfwalkers). In the past two years, though, we've had a strong frontrunner that lost its strangehold on "Best" prizes when an international title soared in the 11th hour (Boy and the Heron vs Into the Spider-Verse and, even more dramatically, Flow vs Wild Robot). On rare occassions the race gets ultra competitive wherein three or more nominees feel possible (remember 2012?) only for the Academy to default to Pixar again. What kind of year will the 98th Academy Awards bring? 

This year the crystal ball looks quite cloudy...

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Eye Candy Predix Pt 2: Will "Wicked" be crowned again in Costume Design?

by Nathaniel R

WICKED FOR GOOD

I cheered when Paul Tazewell won Best Costume Design and Nathan Crowley won Production Design for Wicked and yet I also felt a sense of dread. One of my great popculture fears in this franchise era is that the Oscars will one day lose their identity and become something akin to the Emmys with the same achievements winning again and again. Naturally then I'm excited to see new variations on the pinks and greens and golds and blacks of Wicked's color palette in Wicked For Good but also don't want to see it win back to back Oscars in the eye-candy categories, since it's essentially one long film, split into two. (It's the same reason I rolled my eyes that the Academy felt the need to nominate Stuart Craig and Stepheni McMillan for a full half of the Harry Potter franchise films even though their work was strong).

So what might oppose total Wicked dominance in the eye-candy categories come Oscar time?  Specifically costume design...

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Eye Candy Predix Pt 1: Who will be nominated for Best Cinematography?

by Nathaniel R

F1 The Movie - shot by Claudio Miranda

Eye-candy. It's a good chunk of the reason we obsess over cinema, a gloriously visual artform. Films which don't maximize the capabilities of cinematography, costumes, and production design often risk looking dull or under-thought by comparison to those that use everything the cinematic toolbox has to offer. It should go without saying that Oscar predictions do not necessarily mean that these are the titles which will excel in any given craft area -- we all know that Best Picture heat gets you further than it ought to  in every category... yes, even the ones you deserve to be competitive in! All categories should be judged on their own exquisite merit. Neverthless here is some guesswork about what Oscar voters might respond to this year in terms of these visual arts...

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Last night I caught an IMAX screening of Joseph Kosinski's latest all quadrant hopeful, F1: The Movie. It's received a bit of breathless Variety hype for Chilean DP Claudio Miranda's work...

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New Oscar Charts: Screenplays, Music, and Visuals

by Nathaniel R

Speeding the April Foolish Oscar chart production up now, with 10 of Oscar's 24 categories posted, in order to finish by, uh... June's end.

• Prediction Index
  (in progress since some categories are still under construction)
• Original & Adapted Screenplay 
• Visuals (all but two posted)
• Sound
• International Film

Ten categories left to publish (we never predict the shorts or documentary categories this early), so we'll try hard to get them all up this week and say more about the, too. They are: Actress, Actor, Animated Feature, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Picture, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. 

Wicked and Sinners currently lead the predicted tallies though that may change with the remaining categories yet to be posted. What's interesting is that they could fill up 80% of the original song category since Wicked (an official musical) has two Original Songs, one for each of its leading ladies, while Sinners (an unofficial musical) has four or five ... though of course only two song nominations are allowed for any film given the current Oscar rules; That rule is kind of a bummer because given the popularity of both Wicked and Sinners we could have finally had a year without the mandatory throwaway Diane Warren nomination!