88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only
The Nominees Are...
|How'd they get nominated?|
| 30% She's Cate Blanchett, icon
24% Gay/Maternal Fusion Bait: Oscar loves straights playing gay. They also love mothers in custody battles
16% People who love Carol L-O-V-E Carol
8% Rooney Mara
6% Precursor lockstep
1% "the world is round people!" solidarity
|31% Performance / Chemistry with Jacob Tremblay.
22% They really ♥ Room
19% Caged Bait: Instant empathy and drama
18% Timing + Campaign. Got out there early and established her frontrunner status. Movie's slow build kept it going
8% Precursor lockstep
2% Short Term 12
|56% She's Jennifer Lawrence #1
21% Precursors & Rampant Category Fraud this year insured that she had little competition
13% Performance. They love her work for Russell
8% Timing. Late arrivals are fine if you're this famous and they haven't settled on anyone else...
2% Pay equity hero!
20% Narrative: Last chance to honor a giant?
12% Category Fraud by Mara & Vikander
8% Under the Sand, The Night Porter, Stardust Memories, etc...
7% Vintage Bait: marital angst + years
6% Film critics
5% Ending is tough to shake. And all her.
|58% Performance and Coming of Age Bait: The ideal fusion of ascendant star & role...
20% Timing & Film. Opened early enough to build and become a sleeper. Best Pic!
12% The way Emory Cohen looks at her
6% Universal resonance
4% Remember that girl in Atonement? That's her!
• Cate and Saoirse are both due on Broadway soon, Cate in The Present and Saoirse in The Crucible
• Cate Blanchett is the only one that's married.
• Saoirse is the only "only child" among this shortlist the rest have or had siblings.
• Brie & Charlotte have two similarities: they're both fluent in French and they both have recorded at least one album.
• If Cate were to win she'd be the quickest actress to three wins having won her first only 11 years ago. There are only three actresses with three or more Oscars Ingrid Bergman, Meryl Streep, and Katharine Hepburn. Those three were all in their 60s when they won their third statue. Cate is only 46.
• Jennifer Lawrence recently broke a record previously held by Jennifer Jones as predicted here.
• Saoirse Ronan, who is 21 years old, is now the second fastest actor of either sex to win two Oscar nominations. Only Angela Lansbury did it quicker by the age of 20. She's also only the third actor ever (Jodie Foster and Sal Mineo are the other two) to follow up a childhood nomination with a nomination as an adult. (FYI I'm counting turning 18 as becoming an adult for those from other countries who might have different age laws)
• Even if Saoirse surprises to win the Oscar she will not become the youngest Best Actress winner. That title will still be held by Marlee Matlin (Children of Lesser God) who was also 21 but Saoirse will be 22 less than two months after the Oscar.
|Will / Should / Could|
Will Win: Brie Larson has dominated the conversation and her film is Best Picture nominated. Plus she's a new leading lady in Oscar's favorite age range (mid 20s to mid 30s) for leading ladies
Should Win: I'm not going there yet -- I love (almost) all of 'em.
Could Win: If things suddenly go horribly awry for Brie the one with the most heat will probably be Saoirse Ronan
Who got left out?
Precursor attention was initially all over the place. The Globes corrected the Category Fraud for Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander by placing them both in lead, but nobody else followed suit. Carey Mulligan was nominated for BIFA for Suffragette, Maggie Smith in The Lady in the Van and Melissa McCarthy in Spy were Globe comedy nominated, Bel Powley won the Gothams for Diary of a Teenage Girl, and Charlize Theron was nominated in two acting categories at the Critics Choice awards for her work in Mad Max as well as nabbing an OFCS nom . Kristen Wiig in Welcome to M and Kitana Kiki Rodriguez in Tangerine and Blythe Danner in I'll see You In My Dreams were all Gotham Nominated. And finally SA went for long shots Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back and Helen Mirren Woman in Gold