Will "One Battle..." or "Sinners" Tie or Break Oscar Records?

by Nathaniel R

Can One Battle After Another defeat the Oscar Nomination Champs?

When France's Spanish-language trans musical Emilia Perez scored 13 nominations last January I felt an impending dread. The dread spoketh so... "If even this bizarre and divisive non-Hollywood film nearly broke the all time nomination record (14), then it's only a matter of time before it falls!" This is a terrifying development for those of us who cherish the spreading of wealth. If you love more than one or two movies a year it's downright heartbreaking. To date in Oscar's nearly century-long history, only three films have scored 14 nominations across available Oscar categories: All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016). This season honoring the films of 2025 One Battle After Another and Sinners will try to join or surpass them. The first new category in ages (Casting) could help them match or break that record. But will they pull it off?

Since we've just updated every single Oscar chart with late December predictions, it seems like the ideal time to investigate. Let's do that after the jump...

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Oscar Volleys: Best Picture could be more multicultural than ever before!

The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Eric Blume, Eurocheese and Nick Taylor to discuss the Best Picture race...

HAMNET, Chloé Zhao | © Focus Features

ERIC: Hi gentlemen, I'm looking forward to our three-way... to talk about the ten possible Best Picture nominees. We're just starting to get some clarity on early predictions, so we might as well add our own two cents regarding the big race. Do you both agree that the two absolute lockshere are One Battle After Another and Hamnet? It's fun that they are two very different films that generate very different feelings, OBAA being sort of the "head" movie and Hamnet being the "heart" movie? That's an oversimplification, of course, but I don't think it's untrue…

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Greatest Movies of the 21st Century. Did you join in the fun?

by Nathaniel R

The talk this week in US cinephile circles has been the New York Times interactive "10 Best Movies of the 21st Century". 2025 is a good time for it. Here was my ballot, done on a whim, because how else to do it really? We all know that there are more than 10 "Best" movies in any given quarter century!  Sometimes there are more than 10 "Bests" in a single film year. Nevertheless it was fun to watch friends and strangers sound off this week...

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Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Split Decision: “Conclave”

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, for the last convo of the season, Abe Friedtanzer and Cláudio Alves tackle Conclave...

CLÁUDIO: As the Academy congregates to elect a new Best Picture winner, here, at The Film Experience, we continue our Split Decision convos. However, this debate won't finish with the white smoke of agreement - we never seem to come to such conclusions around these parts. And yet, we persevere in arguing because it's fun. Oh, how I wish Conclave were as fun to watch as it is to reflect upon and talk about. I've fallen in love with the movie those Yaoi girlies saw and keep promoting online, but that's not the movie I watched at TIFF. Edward Berger's too self-serious for such levity, even if this adaptation would have significantly benefited from a surrender to its gossipy pleasures. Give us RuPaul's Drag Race: Vatican with a matching Untucked, not this mirthless drudgery that only elicits laughs because it treats its characters as fodder for shock rather than people. I guess that's enough for an introduction. So let me do like Cardinal Lawrence and wrap up this homily. Or should I emulate Bellini and declare war? Whatever the case, let's go, Abe. Come defend your Catholic fave.

ABE: We're off to a good start with this bevy of puns and references, which should make for a great conversation…

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