Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Split Decision: “Conclave”

In the Split Decision series, two of our writers face off on an Oscar-nominated movie one loves and the other doesn't. Today, for the last convo of the season, Abe Friedtanzer and Cláudio Alves tackle Conclave...

CLÁUDIO: As the Academy congregates to elect a new Best Picture winner, here, at The Film Experience, we continue our Split Decision convos. However, this debate won't finish with the white smoke of agreement - we never seem to come to such conclusions around these parts. And yet, we persevere in arguing because it's fun. Oh, how I wish Conclave were as fun to watch as it is to reflect upon and talk about. I've fallen in love with the movie those Yaoi girlies saw and keep promoting online, but that's not the movie I watched at TIFF. Edward Berger's too self-serious for such levity, even if this adaptation would have significantly benefited from a surrender to its gossipy pleasures. Give us RuPaul's Drag Race: Vatican with a matching Untucked, not this mirthless drudgery that only elicits laughs because it treats its characters as fodder for shock rather than people. I guess that's enough for an introduction. So let me do like Cardinal Lawrence and wrap up this homily. Or should I emulate Bellini and declare war? Whatever the case, let's go, Abe. Come defend your Catholic fave.

ABE: We're off to a good start with this bevy of puns and references, which should make for a great conversation…

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Weekend Awards Wrap-Up: From the Vatican to Vegas

by Cláudio Alves

Mikey Madison crashes into the Best Actress race thanks to BAFTA.

Last weekend marked the rapid ascendance of Anora as the Oscar Best Picture frontrunner. This past week's guilds honors haven't dispelled that notion, though BAFTAs might have, with Conclave taking the top prize from the British Academy. Will the race come down between a doomed Vegas wedding and a Vatican election, or will another contender rise with SAG next Sunday? From social media controversies to precursor disharmony, his season has been uncommonly chaotic and I, for one, am loving this sense of unpredictability. As much as we like to presume otherwise, this isn't a numbers game and stats exist to be broken. So let's break them…

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Oscar Volleys: “Wicked” is the one to beat in Best Costume Design

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Tonight, Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor discuss Best Costume Design...

WICKED | © Universal Pictures

CLÁUDIO: Let me repeat an exercise of Oscar volleys past and dream up an outfit that combines the year's Best Costume Design nominees - Melissa McCarthy and Brian Tyree Henry style. You can picture me in ecclesiastical garb like the blasphemous queen I am, adorned with Denzel Washington's bling from Gladiator II. Over my shoulders, there's Count Orlok's furry robe - after a thorough dry cleaning - and Bob Dylan's stylish 60s shades hide my eyes from mere mortals. And then, I'll pull up those Catholic skirts and reveal the Fiyero boots because Jonathan Bailey can't have all the fun. He's free to try to come and get them back. Please do, Johnny!

What about you, dear Nick? What's your outfit like?

NICK: That’s a ravishing question. We start with Elphaba’s iconic black hat. Sewn into Tazewell’s architectural embellishments would be various prizes from my victories in the gladiator ring like arrowheads and human bones, or maybe the gold-leaf crown would be the rim of the hat. We gotta wear one of Joan Baez’s floral-patterned dresses - the deep blue number might be fun, and I bet she was wearing some really comfy shoes. For Conclave, keep it simple and classy with Sister Agnes’ cross, maybe have some robes in the back in case it’s cold.  I’m struggling what to do for Nosferatu, because I also want Orlok’s coat, and because so many of Ellen’s outfits don’t really make sense on top of what I’ve already selected. Maybe I’ll weave her sad lilies into my hair? The vibe is very “Pagan Sarah Carpenter”, but I’m for it…

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