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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog



Casey Affleck
2nd nom | 1ST WIN!
41 yrs old | 33rd movie
Nov 18th

NBRGotham , Critics Choice, NYFCC,  Globe

Lee Chandler, a man who has avoided his hometown after a tragedy. But when his brother dies, he must return 

Andrew Garfield
1st nom!
33 yrs old | 20 movies
Nov 4th

Devout pacifist Desmond Doss, the first conscientous objector to win the Medal of Honor. He tries to save as many soldiers as he can at bloody Hacksaw Ridge 

Ryan Gosling
2nd nom
35 yrs old | 22nd movie
Dec 16th  


Sebastian, an opinionated frustrated jazz pianist, who falls for an aspiring actress and he dreams up opening up his own club

Viggo Mortensen
2nd nom
57 yrs old | 48th movie
July 8th 

Ben, a nonconformist survivalist raising his huge brood of children in the Pacific Northwest away from civilization. But he begins to question if his way is too extreme. 

Denzel Washington
7th nom | 2 wins
61 yrs old | 45th movie
Dec 25th


Troy Maxson, an excon former baseball star hopeful, who is frustrated with his life as a garbage collector. But he should have held his wife tighter...

How'd they get nominated?

50% Performance. Critics and audiences went wild for it. His hollowed out grief is something else.
24% The sympathetic Role. Just imagine...
13% His rapport with Lucas Hedges as his nephew
12% Precursors in lockstep to honor him
8% Surprisingly affable and funny on campaign trail
-7% Personal troubles and controversy.

50% The sympathetic Role. Oscar loves biopics, and men playing classically heroic true stories
22% Big earnest performance - a little , shall we say, 'purple' for my taste but some people really respond
10% Relief that he's out of Spider-Man dungeon
9% Precursors lack of imagination when looking at the competition
7% Silence
2% Sorry about The Social Network 
39% The movie. People love it and the actors are #1 reason why
20% Chemistry w/ Emma
13% "City of Stars" is such an earworm
10% The performance even if he makes it look too easy
7% Chance to honor the 21st century version of an old school leading man
6% Precursors
5% Surprise skills: Such good lines when he dances and such capable piano skills!
70% Role AND Performance. Viggo has always been an "off-Hollywood" lead so this stubborn idiosyncratic non comformist is a great fusion of role and actor, allowing you to engage with both
20% Precursors + SAG ensemble surprise
7% Arthouse hit. That release date sure helped the movie stand apart. People had already fallen for it before campaigns
5% That loud funeral suit
-2% Jill Stein support

What clip should they play on Oscar night?
Identifying his brother's body Being interrogated about his bruises. Not naming names Getting fired. "it's just a penis" (I mean they can crop it obviously) The entire 2 hours is his Oscar clip so...
Who will win?
Casey Affleck has been buried in an avalanche of trophies and that will likely continue on Oscar night. Denzel Washington made some late voting inroads and could upset on Oscar night but my guess is Casey's long headstart will pay off... if only just barely. And mostly because Denzel has already won twice. 
Who was left out?
This was the list for most of precursor season and is nearly my list, too, though there were people pulling for Tom Hanks (Sully) and Joel Edgerton (Loving), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool) and Colin Farrell (The Lobster).