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Entries in Punditry (49)

Saturday
Feb252017

Final Oscar Predictions ! 

With the Oscars nearly upon us, it's time for final predictions. I've written up a lengthy piece for Towleroad which I hope you'll read and you can also compare my predictions to the other Gurus of Gold at Movie City News. I shan't reprint the whole thing here since we have all those charts you can peruse and months of articles on these very races. 

While nearly everyone expects La La Land to be the major champion of the night, I don't think it will be record breaking. Damien Chazelle’s popular musical would need 12 Oscars to beat the record of 11 which was set by Ben-Hur back in 1959 and then tied by both Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) and Titanic (1997). West Side Story (1961), yours truly's all time favorite movie, is the runner up to "most wins" with 10. La La Land might tie West Side Story but I'm predicting 9 wins. That's still a lot mind you but it's not quite record breaking. The number of wins for a Best Picture seems to be trending downward in the modern era. The only really truly big hauls in the past twenty years have been for The English Patient (9 wins for 1996), Titanic (11 wins in 1997), Shakespeare in Love (7 wins for 1999), Return of the King which was a special case as they were obviously rewarding the whole trilogy (11 wins for 2003), and Slumdog Millionaire (8 wins for 2008). I can't see La La Land winning less than 8.

But let's divvy up the categories into sure things, probably sure things, and very unsure things...

ALL LOCKED UP AND THEY SWALLOWED THE KEY

Click to read more ...

Friday
Feb242017

Double Winners & Chart Updates

No Oscar Trivia today. Unless you count all the stuff that's on the Oscar pages. The major category charts have been updated with our popular "how'd they get nominated?" speculation, chosen preferred Oscar clips, and other sorts of trivia. Every acting chart plus Picture and Director are update! Woooo

Thoughts? Comments? Feelings? Nonsense? Opinions? Do share. (Note: The final predictions full article will go up tomorrow but you can see a sneak peek of the predictions on the chart index.)

Okay fine, fine. You have to have your daily trivia don't you? As if the charts aren't enough! You're so greedy, sometimes, I swear. After the jump the six double winning actors who are two for two in that they won both times they were nominated, never losing an official Oscar race. (Obviously they lost out on nominations over the years but that's a different thing and everyone does. Even Streep)

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Feb152017

Links: Car Eyes, Sad Batman, Oscar Guesswork, Inspiring Denzel

General Linkage
i09 Mad Mad Fury Road meets Pixar's Cars
AV Club ignoring that nobody on god's green earth could possibly want to relive the election fiasco of 2016, Megan Ellison and Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty) are developing a miniseries about it right now. Too soon.
Interview Mag there's going to be a biopic of Sammy Davis Jr. They have casting suggestions including Elijah Kelley as Sammy and Delroy Lindo as his father
Cinesnark has an ode to Keanu Reeves, calling him 'the last great movie star.' I personally think the demise of the movie star is a myth (that's been being told my entire lifetime... and yet my lifetime has had plenty of new movie stars in it) but I tend to like pieces like this anyway because worshipping movie stars is fun
The New Yorker looks at the silent film Different From Others, reportedly the first gay romantic drama on film


MNPP Tom Cullen has been at the gym and has a movie coming out co-starring his love Tatiana Maslany
Screen Crush Ben Affleck rumored to want out of the Batman game. I mean... he does look miserable doing it, so why not? Batman is the star not the actor playing him anyway. Notice how many faces he's already worn since 1989 and he's still just as popular
Tracking Board Mahershala Ali is joining Channing Tatum and Tom Hardy for a new crime drama called Triple Frontier

Oscar Stuff
Feinberg Forecast Feinberg is predicting 10 Oscars for La La Land, losing only 3 categories
Variety on the backlash to La La Land and why "exuberance" matters. I co-sign this post. I hate when films are deemed "not important enough" as that leads to comedies and family films and adventures and romances and all sorts of genres that produce classics being regularly overlooked at the Oscars
Write Out of LA is, on the other side, all in for the La La Land backlash 
Variety Netflix sharing Ava DuVernay's with classrooms, community groups, and book clubs
Variety Moonlight took the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenplay
Indie Wire Anne Thompson says Moonlight is "guaranteed" one Oscar win. Guaranteed feels like too strong a word for me when both of its potential wins (Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor) have to face off against a surging Lion which took both of those categories at the BAFTAs
... oh and BAFTA wins and gowns in case you missed those posts here! 

In Case You Missed It
Denzel Washington gave an inspiring speech at the NAACP Image Awards. I'm still torn as to whether he'll pull off a third Oscar win for Fences but I'm rooting for it, since it can't be Viggo!

 

Monday
Feb132017

13 Days Until Oscar. Three Questions

OSCAR VOTING HAS NOW OFFICIALLY BEGUN! The Academy now has just eight days to make the tough choices like Denzel vs Casey, La La Land versus everything else for the craft prizes, The Salesman vs Toni Erdmann (all of which were just discussed on the podcast), Mahershala vs Dev, and so on. 

I am not a superstitious person. It annoys me that 13th floors do not exist in buildings. I have walked under ladders if it was the quicket path to get somewhere. I welcome black cats crossing my path because I love cats of all colors. But let's play along with the #13 being unlucky for the purposes of today's Oscar countdown.

Answer me these questions three...

• What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be? 

Tuesday
Jan242017

The 89th Oscar Nominations Are Here

Oscar night is February 26th, 2017. Here are the nominees along with how I fared on my punditry and some interesting stats. Also Read: "8 Big Takeaways from the Nominations" and "Sad Snubs and Curious Inclusions", "Nominations that made us happy" and "Curious Statistics - Oscar Numbers"

La La Land enters Oscar history with 14 nominations, the most ever

BEST PICTURE:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”

How'd I do on my predictions: 9/9 though this wasn't that difficult I will readily admit

History Made: La La Land, with 14 nominations, ties the record of "most nominations ever" with Titanic and All About Eve

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck 
Andrew Garfield 
Ryan Gosling
Viggo Mortensen
Denzel Washington

How'd I do on my predictions: 5/5. This was the expected list, no surprises...

Click to read more ...

Monday
Jan232017

Oscar Nomination Eve Jitters

It's almost Christmas! Our Christmas that is, when we open our beautiful presents and occassional lumps of coal from the Academy. What will go in the history books tomorrow as Oscar nominees? Here's a run down of my final predictions in case you missed them (with three alterations) since the charts are being pulled tonight for reconstruction tomorrow once we have the official nominations.

All predictions are after the jump...

Click to read more ...

Friday
Jan202017

Oscar Predix & Personal Ballots: The Moulin Rouge! Categories...

If you've read The Film Experience for any length of time beyond let's say, a week, you'll know that we live for eye candy. Three of the cinematic arts that most regularly provide this are, outside of beautiful movie stars in the acting categories, Production Design and Costume Design i.e. the Moulin Rouge! categories. We love these categories so much we have two weekly series for them, Daniel Walber's "The Furniture" and my own forthcoming costume series "Three Fittings".

Anyway, it's time to make our final predictions for Oscar but it's also time to get those Film Bitch Awards (my own long running awards jamboree) going. So herewith my personal ballot and, putting the pundit hat on, my Oscar predictions. These two modes should not be confused... so apologies for discussing them simultaneously. This is what happens when you procrastinate!

Will Stuart Craig receive his 5th nomination directly from the Potterverse (he had 6 nominations and 3 wins before the Potterverse took over his life)

Production Design - Oscar Predictions
I figure this is a slot for the BAFTA surging Nocturnal Animals and I'm predicting that at the expensive of the haunting minimalistic sci-fi of Arrival (work I really really love. Sigh). That damn outdoor potty and the opening art world light slabs will do it. This is an interesting category, though, and I'm going to predict The Handmaiden both because it is hugely deserving and because of all the critics foreign film prizes and the LAFCA prize in this very category. If Park Chan Wook's brilliant film is going to score anywhere it will be here (with an outside shot at costumes, too). There's plentiful buzz around Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts (they do love the Harry Potter films in this category but come one, how many times do we need to dip in that well with so many richly art directed films of all genres happening each year ?!?). Question: is Doctor Strange really well liked enough to score multiple nods when so many other Marvel Studio films couldn't do it? 

NATHANIEL'S BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN BALLOT
• DANIEL, WHO WRITES "THE FURNITURE," ALSO NAMED HIS 5 FAVORITES 

 

Costume Design
If you really give in to the predictive mania of at home Oscar punditry costume design will surely drive you craziest. What an impossible category to predict this year!  Since the CDG has multiple categories they've covered a ton of possibilities  and the ones they didn't still have buzz for costumes anyway. Just thinking casually about the films won't help. On paper you might think: oh easy, period pieces + a little Colleen Atwood and you're done (Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hidden Figures, Love & Friendship, and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them). But not so fast. Silence, Hail Caesar, and Allied also feature period costumes and they're both buzzing for this category which is easily understandable if you've seen them given the gorgeous work. Even stranger, at least in terms of Oscar history, is that people are talking up not one but two contemporary films: Captain Fantastic as a dark horse (yes please) and La La Land as a sure thing. And that's before you even consider outside possibilities like Kubo and the Two Strings (which wants to be the first animated film nominated here, with all those lovingly detailed miniature costumes), less showy period fare like Fences, Cafe Society or Loving, a costuming legend in Albert Wolsky (Rules Don't Apply). Finally there's a foreign possibility in this category, too, via the The Handmaiden. Here's my best guess though I'm prepared to go 1 or 2 for 5 because I've taken quite a chance on two of them that aren't anything like sure things (The Dressmaker and Hidden Figures) but who the hell knows!?!