Oscar Predictions for August Complete!

It only took three days to revamp all the charts. Woohoo. Have a looksie.

In this mass overhaul we have major gains for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Farewell, naturally, since both have proven themselves with critics and at the box office already. Experiencing small gains are The Irishman and Just Mercy (now that they're officially going to be premiering this year), The Lighthouse and 1917 (after their stunning teases), and Judy (sigh). Small losses were incurred by Harriet (after a somewhat generic trailer) and The Report (given Amazon's sudden cold feet about regular theatrical exposure for their films). Films tumbling downward since our April Foolish wild guesswork include The Good Liar, Ford v Ferrari, and The Goldfinch (though we're definitely looking forward to two of those).

We've also added documentary predictions for the first time this year though this is still blindfolded guesswork since we won't know what's actually eligible and long-listed for quite some time still. 

 All Pages
INDEX | PICTURE   | DIRECTOR |
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS |
SUPP ACTOR | SCREENPLAY  |
FOREIGN FILM | ANIMATION, DOCS |
VISUALS | SOUND

Oscar Chart Updates: Two-Lead Men's Movies

Robert Pattinson & Willem Dafoe in "The Lighthouse"

We're in for it with category fraud this year, y'all. Yes, we're in for it every year of course until something finally breaks within the Academy (disgruntled character actors stage a revolution, "do you hear the people sing singing the song of angry men..." c'mon SAG!) but 2019 in particular appears to be a film year with an unusual amount of two-leading-men films. We've got (arguably) The Lighthouse, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Two Popes, and maybe more. So we've opted to just kind of ignore the problem and assume we know who is going where in the BEST ACTOR and BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR chart updates though as always we wish the leading men would just stay in lead like they're supposed to. If it was good enough for Amadeus, it's good enough for you, people!

Having said all that we just realized we left Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari) and Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) off of either chart which is silly but not intentional. We'll squeeze them in somewhere as soon as we have a moment.  What do you think of the new rankings? Any strong hunches this August? 

Cannes winds down. What's winning the Palme?

by Nathaniel R

Margot Robbie at Cannes for "Once Upon a Time in..."There are 21 titles competing for the Palme d'Or at Cannes this year. We've already talked about seven titles. Pedro Almodovar's Pain & Glory (Spain) is a potential prize winner (and a legit Oscar hopeful) and Mati Diop's Atlantique (France/Senegal), and Celine Sciamma's Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France) could be the key films in ensuring prizes to female directors (something Cannes has historically been bad at) since they were both extremely well-received.

In addition to those three potential Palme d'Or or Best Director winners (Cannes most important prizes), Ladj Ly's contemporary French drama Les Misérables and Kleber Mendonça Filho's Brazilian oddity Bacurau are also threats for jury love.  Diao Yinan's The Wild Goose Lake and Jim Jarmusch's The Dead Don't Die got decent notices but we don't expect prizes there.  

With Cannes ending this weekend we've run out of time so here are quick notes on responses to the other 14 Competition titles and our predictions after the jump...

COMPETITION TITLES

Click to read more ...

April Foolish Predictions #10: Best Actress

Our annual inevitably foolish April Oscar predictions are now complete! 

There's so many questions to consider now that the first Oscar charts for Best Actress (and all other categories) are now up. We've asked you seven questions for the comment party after the jump...

Click to read more ...

April Foolish Predictions #9: Supporting Actress

by Nathaniel R

Oscar predictions in the supporting categories are notoriously difficult to do this far in advance. That's largely due to the lack of information, since most pre-publicity for movies focuses on leading roles rather than ensemble players. With a dearth of early information, the Supporting Actress chart was agonizing to make but fun, too, since it foretells a year full of actressing wonders. There's sure to be at least a handful of brilliant performances to come and some that we haven't even imagined yet. Whether or not the future brilliance piques the interest of voters is another matter entirely. 

After gazing at the foggy crystal ball, we opted for a lineup that's entirely free of previous winners and mostly newbies at that. Let us know what your hunches are, too, won'cha?

See also: Prediction Index chart

Final Oscar Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Sharing a predictions article I wrote for Towleroad yesterday just after having posted our final predictions in that penultimate podcast discussion of the season. It's highly likely that I've contradicted myself a few times. And I'm already regretting some of those "final" predictions. A confusing year it's been. CHAOS REIGNS! So here are the final predictions, posted in order of how the prizes were handed out last year. If I'm already second guessing myself there are notes in red font. Category titles will take you to the corresponding chart where you have one last day to vote on your favourites. Ready?  Here we go...

Click to read more ...