Cannes: "You Were Never Really Here" and Palme d'Or Predictions

Previously: Day 1, Days 2-4, Days 5-6, Days 7-8, and Days 9-10
Fashion: French Divas & Kidmanifestations 1, 2, 3

Joaquin Phoenix, an antihero saving girls from sex slavery, in Lynne Ramsay's thriller "You Were Never Really Here"

Cannes wraps up Sunday with the closing ceremony which means the Palme d'Or! The last competition film to premiere (tomorrow officially is Lynne Ramsay's You Were Never Really Here  and as is sometimes the case in the more dramatic Cannes festivals, many critics are proclaiming that the festival saved the best for last. Variety's Guy Lodge loved it calling it a "a stunning return," The Guardian compares it to Taxi Driver in its "nightmarish psychological drama" 

Does that mean it will win the Palme d'Or or that Joaquin Phoenix has Best Actor wrapped up? Not really. It's foolish with Cannes to ever assume you know what will win but let's make some tentative predictions for fun after the jump shall we? 

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Best Actress - April Foolish Oscar Predix

We always save the best category for last.

The April Foolish Oscar predictions are officially complete with the BEST ACTRESS chart which has just gone up. So many talent women. So much luscious actressing to come. We cannot wait to see these performances, wherever they happen to fall on the chart. Predictions are for fun and do not indicate who we're rooting for ever -- we try not to root for anything without actually seeing the films because "may the best performance win!" and we don't know what that will be yet, now do we? This year the April Foolish crystal ball says "all previous nominees" but that's largely because it does not appear to be a year where many women who aren't previous nominees have managed to land leading roles. But we shall see. 

Answer me these questions three:

1. Which actress's double feature are you most excited to see? The busy choices are: Jessica Chastain (A Woman Walks Ahead, Molly's Game), Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel, The Mountain Between Us), Sally Hawkins (Maudie, The Shape of Water), and Charlize Theron (Tully, Atomic Blonde). Let's leave the very busy Nicole Kidman out of this survey since the size of her roles aren't totally obvious this year.

2. Do you think Annette Bening has momentum due to that near-miss last season (those sometimes build goodwill) or do you think 20th Century Women is irrelevant to this year's prediction equation?

3. Which performance are you convinced will be great sight unseen? ...and vice versa if you're feeling irritable today.

ICYMI 
Past articles on this new Oscar race
Last year's Oscars, the full index

Best Supporting Actor - April Foolish Oscar Predix

By Nathaniel R

It's only 321 days until the next Oscar ceremony. That may seem like a good long time but we rarely go days without thinking about it so it'll  be here before we know it. The latest chart to go up is BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR. The Supporting categories are always tricky to suss out before the films are seen because supporting players generally need some fire from their films to make a dent, no matter how good the actual performance is. What's more we rarely know the full extent of what a supporting role entails this early as only the leads generally factor into early synopses. Nevertheless we forge a chart of possibility...

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Picture, Director, Screenplays ~ April Foolish Oscar Predix

by Nathaniel R

I've been rubbing my crystal ball vigorously backstage to bring you the new Oscar charts. Everything is up but the acting now Let's discuss our way too early April guesswork in these categories: PICTURE and DIRECTOR and SCREENPLAYS. Thoughts? Objections? Applause?

Which 2017 releases will Oscar voters fall hard for?

Perfect on paper
Looks right on paper for major Oscar love doesn't always translate to the real thing but I've fallen for the chances of this year's World War II dramas from Chris Nolan (Dunkirk) and Joe Wright (Darkest Hour). Curiously, though both men have helmed Best Picture nominees in the past, neither have been nominated for Best Director yet. So strange but I'm predicting both of them to get in. I'm also predicting Get Out to score a Best Picture, Best Screenplay and Best Film Editing nods. That might sound crazy but I don't think it is. As I've often said genre pictures need time with awards bodies to cement their worth. Jump in your time machine and I'll bet you people are still talking in glowing terms about Get Out in December and everyone starts rooting for its Oscar nomination because they've accepted that it's special...

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Animated Feature, the April Foolish Oscar Predictions

If only Laika had waited until 2017 to release Kubo and the Two Strings -they might finally have won that elusive Oscar that almost always goes to Disney or Disney/Pixar.

Owen Wilson poses with a life size McQueen for "Cars 3"

As previously discussed this year's animated slate doesn't look too promising in terms of American studio features, and there's also a complete absence of stop motion features *sniffle* from abroad as far as we can tell. What's worse, the Academy's just-announced a rule change for voting on the animated features that might well make the category less penetrable for brilliant work from across the ocean. But we'll have to wait and see if our worst fears materialize.

First Oscar Predictions for 2017's Best Animated Feature

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Final Oscar Predictions !

With the Oscars nearly upon us, it's time for final predictions. I've written up a lengthy piece for Towleroad which I hope you'll read and you can also compare my predictions to the other Gurus of Gold at Movie City News. I shan't reprint the whole thing here since we have all those charts you can peruse and months of articles on these very races. 

While nearly everyone expects La La Land to be the major champion of the night, I don't think it will be record breaking. Damien Chazelle’s popular musical would need 12 Oscars to beat the record of 11 which was set by Ben-Hur back in 1959 and then tied by both Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003) and Titanic (1997). West Side Story (1961), yours truly's all time favorite movie, is the runner up to "most wins" with 10. La La Land might tie West Side Story but I'm predicting 9 wins. That's still a lot mind you but it's not quite record breaking. The number of wins for a Best Picture seems to be trending downward in the modern era. The only really truly big hauls in the past twenty years have been for The English Patient (9 wins for 1996), Titanic (11 wins in 1997), Shakespeare in Love (7 wins for 1999), Return of the King which was a special case as they were obviously rewarding the whole trilogy (11 wins for 2003), and Slumdog Millionaire (8 wins for 2008). I can't see La La Land winning less than 8.

But let's divvy up the categories into sure things, probably sure things, and very unsure things...

ALL LOCKED UP AND THEY SWALLOWED THE KEY

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