Cannes winds down. What's winning the Palme?

by Nathaniel R

Margot Robbie at Cannes for "Once Upon a Time in..."There are 21 titles competing for the Palme d'Or at Cannes this year. We've already talked about seven titles. Pedro Almodovar's Pain & Glory (Spain) is a potential prize winner (and a legit Oscar hopeful) and Mati Diop's Atlantique (France/Senegal), and Celine Sciamma's Portrait of a Lady on Fire (France) could be the key films in ensuring prizes to female directors (something Cannes has historically been bad at) since they were both extremely well-received.

In addition to those three potential Palme d'Or or Best Director winners (Cannes most important prizes), Ladj Ly's contemporary French drama Les Misérables and Kleber Mendonça Filho's Brazilian oddity Bacurau are also threats for jury love.  Diao Yinan's The Wild Goose Lake and Jim Jarmusch's The Dead Don't Die got decent notices but we don't expect prizes there.  

With Cannes ending this weekend we've run out of time so here are quick notes on responses to the other 14 Competition titles and our predictions after the jump...

COMPETITION TITLES

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April Foolish Predictions #10: Best Actress

Our annual inevitably foolish April Oscar predictions are now complete! 

There's so many questions to consider now that the first Oscar charts for Best Actress (and all other categories) are now up. We've asked you seven questions for the comment party after the jump...

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April Foolish Predictions #9: Supporting Actress

by Nathaniel R

Oscar predictions in the supporting categories are notoriously difficult to do this far in advance. That's largely due to the lack of information, since most pre-publicity for movies focuses on leading roles rather than ensemble players. With a dearth of early information, the Supporting Actress chart was agonizing to make but fun, too, since it foretells a year full of actressing wonders. There's sure to be at least a handful of brilliant performances to come and some that we haven't even imagined yet. Whether or not the future brilliance piques the interest of voters is another matter entirely. 

After gazing at the foggy crystal ball, we opted for a lineup that's entirely free of previous winners and mostly newbies at that. Let us know what your hunches are, too, won'cha?

See also: Prediction Index chart

Final Oscar Predictions

by Nathaniel R

Sharing a predictions article I wrote for Towleroad yesterday just after having posted our final predictions in that penultimate podcast discussion of the season. It's highly likely that I've contradicted myself a few times. And I'm already regretting some of those "final" predictions. A confusing year it's been. CHAOS REIGNS! So here are the final predictions, posted in order of how the prizes were handed out last year. If I'm already second guessing myself there are notes in red font. Category titles will take you to the corresponding chart where you have one last day to vote on your favourites. Ready?  Here we go...

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Podcast: Final Oscar Predictions

with Nathaniel R and Murtada Elfadl and special reccuring guest Nick Davis

 

With the Oscar on Sunday night, you'd better hurry and listen to this 65 minute podcast as it will self destruct in less than 72 hours. We kid, we kid. You'll still be able to make fun of our faulty crystal balls since we spend one hour making bold and not-so bold predictions as to who will win in 21 Oscar categories (minus the shorts). Hear us panic about how many Oscars Bohemian Rhapsody might win, and whether First Man might surprise with multiple wins, and will Roma really take the most statues?

You can listen to the podcast here at the bottom of the post or download from iTunes. Continue the conversations in the comments, won't you? 

Oscar win predictions

Another Academy Reversal. But We're Still Feeling Battered

We were offline last night (a break for computer strained eyeballs) so we're hours late delivering the news but good news is still good the next morning. Deadline scooped that the Academy has decided to reverse the decision to not present all categories live. This is a very happy turn of events but it's also left us feeling bruised and battered. Deadline's scoop reminds us that a large part of the problem -- a problem that's not going away any time soon -- is the way the media frames these issues. The media is essentially complicit in ABC's tactics at undermining the Oscars. For those who are looking closely at the situation it's become blindingly obvious that ABC is a toxic and abusive partner to The Academy, more concerned with pushing their own stars (like Jimmy Kimmel) and movies (more awards for Disney blockbusters plz -- hey how about a "popular Oscar"?) than perpetuating the brand of the Oscars themselves. And that brand, the Oscars, is the reason people tune in each year, not for any particular host or any particular movie.

ABC has strategically kept the Academy in panic mode with 'the sky is falling' style messaging about their lack of popularity (which is bollocks but facts are hard to see when you're in an abusive relationship). But the problem  becomes larger because the media continually helps them do it! Consider the way Mike Fleming Jr frames the piece (and he's hardly the first) in his article...

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