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Entries in Punditry (43)

Friday
Jan202017

Oscar Predix & Personal Ballots: The Moulin Rouge! Categories...

If you've read The Film Experience for any length of time beyond let's say, a week, you'll know that we live for eye candy. Three of the cinematic arts that most regularly provide this are, outside of beautiful movie stars in the acting categories, Production Design and Costume Design i.e. the Moulin Rouge! categories. We love these categories so much we have two weekly series for them, Daniel Walber's "The Furniture" and my own forthcoming costume series "Three Fittings".

Anyway, it's time to make our final predictions for Oscar but it's also time to get those Film Bitch Awards (my own long running awards jamboree) going. So herewith my personal ballot and, putting the pundit hat on, my Oscar predictions. These two modes should not be confused... so apologies for discussing them simultaneously. This is what happens when you procrastinate!

Will Stuart Craig receive his 5th nomination directly from the Potterverse (he had 6 nominations and 3 wins before the Potterverse took over his life)

Production Design - Oscar Predictions
I figure this is a slot for the BAFTA surging Nocturnal Animals and I'm predicting that at the expensive of the haunting minimalistic sci-fi of Arrival (work I really really love. Sigh). That damn outdoor potty and the opening art world light slabs will do it. This is an interesting category, though, and I'm going to predict The Handmaiden both because it is hugely deserving and because of all the critics foreign film prizes and the LAFCA prize in this very category. If Park Chan Wook's brilliant film is going to score anywhere it will be here (with an outside shot at costumes, too). There's plentiful buzz around Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts (they do love the Harry Potter films in this category but come one, how many times do we need to dip in that well with so many richly art directed films of all genres happening each year ?!?). Question: is Doctor Strange really well liked enough to score multiple nods when so many other Marvel Studio films couldn't do it? 

NATHANIEL'S BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN BALLOT
• DANIEL, WHO WRITES "THE FURNITURE," ALSO NAMED HIS 5 FAVORITES 

 

Costume Design
If you really give in to the predictive mania of at home Oscar punditry costume design will surely drive you craziest. What an impossible category to predict this year!  Since the CDG has multiple categories they've covered a ton of possibilities  and the ones they didn't still have buzz for costumes anyway. Just thinking casually about the films won't help. On paper you might think: oh easy, period pieces + a little Colleen Atwood and you're done (Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hidden Figures, Love & Friendship, and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them). But not so fast. Silence, Hail Caesar, and Allied also feature period costumes and they're both buzzing for this category which is easily understandable if you've seen them given the gorgeous work. Even stranger, at least in terms of Oscar history, is that people are talking up not one but two contemporary films: Captain Fantastic as a dark horse (yes please) and La La Land as a sure thing. And that's before you even consider outside possibilities like Kubo and the Two Strings (which wants to be the first animated film nominated here, with all those lovingly detailed miniature costumes), less showy period fare like Fences, Cafe Society or Loving, a costuming legend in Albert Wolsky (Rules Don't Apply). Finally there's a foreign possibility in this category, too, via the The Handmaiden. Here's my best guess though I'm prepared to go 1 or 2 for 5 because I've taken quite a chance on two of them that aren't anything like sure things (The Dressmaker and Hidden Figures) but who the hell knows!?!

 

Thursday
Jan192017

More Final Predix: Foreign, Cinematography, Makeup, Visual FX, and Editing

Final Predictions Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplays, Actor, Supporting Actress  
Final Predictions Pt 2: Animation, Documentary, Score, Song, Sound

Part 3: We have to wrap up final predictions tomorrow! So here's another round of last minute parsing in five categories...

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Jan112017

Best Picture - How many and which ones? 

Though the Academy Awards and the Golden Globes don't share voters, La La Land's sweep at the latter -- winning the most prizes, literally ever, at the Globes-- suggests the kind of overall crowd-pleasing and respectability strength that means the Best Picture Oscar is already won. The only suspense is how many other statues will be keeping it company on Hollywood's High Holy Night in February. But the race for nominations, which we've always maintained is the most exciting part each year anyway, is still relatively heated. So the Best Picture Oscar chart has been updated (more charts to follow over the next couple of days). But in short yours truly in punditry believe that the race currently breaks down like so

Tier 1 - The Locks... La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea
Tier 2 - If There Were Still Only 5.... Arrival and Hell or High Water?
Tier 3 - Probably Also In (So That Makes 8)... LionHidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge
Tier 4 - It Depends on How Many Nominees? Nocturnal Animals or Fences
Tier 4.5 - Unless I'm Wrong In Which Case Loving, Jackie, or Sully

Assuming La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight are competing for the win... how would you rank the other Best Pic hopefuls?

That's ten pictures right there which means I have less faith in the rest though there are other films making noise like Silence (albeit a quiet kind of 'Jesuit priests in Japan but its Scorsese' noise) and Deadpool. I know I know... the PGA nomination... but I frankly can't imagine the latter as a BP nominee and my reasoning is this: it's the kind of picture you'd vote for if you're like "burn this whole place down! Oscars are silly and too elitist" -- there are surely some voters like that but in a year with so many richly loved movies I can't imagine this feeling is the dominant one. Also if the high budget superhero universal acclaim of The Dark Knight and the High Budget but similar to Deadpool (In Snark and Success) Charm of Guardians of the Galaxy couldn't do it why would the comparatively lowbudget and lowbrow Ryan Reynolds comedy be able to? And if it were to be nominated wouldn't that be like spitting in Marvel Studios' face? (Yeah, yeah, we know you've worked hard at consistent quality for a decade with barely any nominations to show for it even in tech categories, but whatever)

YOUR TURN. How many nominees do you think we'll get this year and which film is in the so-close but it's not going to happen position?

Sunday
Jan082017

Golden Globes Tonight! 

Golden Globe Madness is about to hit. Yipee! So make sure you're watching tonight (5 PM PT / 8 PM EST on NBC). We haven't forgiven Jimmy Fallon for treating T**** like a cuddly harmless celebrity instead of a Democracy destroying fascist but we don't watch awards shows for the hosts anyway (the Amy & Tina years were just a happy bonus) but for the stars who dress up, copiously drink, and win or lose graciously or otherwise. 

I am quite terrible at predicting the Globes and have never claimed otherwise but I'm guessing it goes like so...

Click to read more ...

Wednesday
Jan042017

Oscar Balloting Begins. What are your top three FYCs?

Tomorrow's the day awards-freaks, January 5th, 2017. Oscar nomination balloting begins. Where the buzz falls now is where the buzz settles. AMPAS branch voters have just 8 days to finalize their ballots (they're due by the 13th). January 14th through 23rd then becomes our awards purgatory and on the 24th when nominations are read we learn who goes to heaven and who is cast out for good, forever doomed to be considered a "snub" to their future fans. Pardon the tortured analogy but the Oscars are our religion!

This past week has been a very strong week for La La Land and Fences with fantastic box office grosses for each as they went wide. The hottest titles from October and November (Manchester, Moonlight, Arrival) can also feel pretty safe about their potential nomination hauls. But there are several titles that are a bit harder to read in terms of possible Oscar love. Those are the titles that expanded too late for a definitive take from the precursors (20th Century Women, Lion, Silence, and Hidden Figures) and their counterparts, the titles that were too "old" (i.e. released before October like Sully, Hell or High Water, Florence Foster Jenkins, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Love & Friendship) for precursor season's problematic but blatantly obvious "shiny new toy" syndrome in which everything that's just opened must be prioritized above all else. 

If you had three FYCs and three FYCs to impress on Oscar voters this week, what would they be? 

Monday
Dec122016

Team Experience: Favorite Globe Nods  

We bitched and moaned about WTF snubs and inclusions earlier so now it's time to turn those frowns upside down. We polled Team Experience about their favorite Globe nominations in movies and tv and we hope you'll answer the same questions in the comments! Ready? Here we go...

Click to read more ...

Saturday
Dec102016

Globe Predictions? Let's Go Out on a Few Limbs...

This Monday morning very bright and early Don Cheadle, Laura Dern, and Anna Kendrick will announce the 74th annual Golden Globe Predictions. Though the media likes to take easy shots at the Globes each year, if you look through their history of awardage their ratios of great decisions to bad ones is about the same as any organizations. What's more they definitely afford themselves the opportunity to be more daring than Oscar does with their doubled categories. The Comedy/Musical categories are sometimes wasted on star-f***ing it's true (The Tourist anyone?) but more often than not it allows for "lighter" fare which, let's face it, can age better than biopics or message movies to have its day in the sun.

Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead), Laura Dern (The Founder), and Anna Kendrick (Mike & Dave...) will announce. Only Cheadle might show up as a nominee...

What might be nominated this year? We've never claimed to be good at predicting the Globes but let's all ponder the possibilities together after the jump...

Click to read more ...