April Foolish Predictions #7: Screenplay, Director, and Best Picture

Taika Waitita directing Scarlett Johansson on the set of "JoJo Rabbit"

Our annual way-too-early Oscar predictions are nearing completion! Only lead actor, and both actress categories left to go. Today the big one BEST PICTURE, as well as both screenplay races, and the Best Director contest. The latter looks really exciting (at least at this way-too-early juncture) because the competition appears to be more gender-balanced than usual with a handful of female directors in the mix. Imagine that! Of course the year might not play out like that once the films are screened, but here's hoping the female directed pictures deliver in a can't-be-denied kind of way.

• PICTURE PREDICTIONS
• SCREENPLAY PREDICTIONS
• DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS 
• SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS
• FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM PREDICTIONS
• VISUALS PREDICTIONS
• AURALS PREDICTIONS 
• ANIMATED FEATURE PREDICTIONS 

'Can You Ever Forgive' everyone ignoring Marielle Heller?

by Nathaniel R

Marielle Heller is, we suspect, a real deal cinematic treasure. Her debut film, the sexually charged, inventively imagined Diary of a Teenage Girl (2015) showed a ton of promise. Her second feature Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2018), while more modest at first glance, was yet more complex and successful.

We think she ought to have been one of the Best Director nominees with Oscar this year, which is why she's in our Film Bitch Awards Best Director lineup...

Click to read more ...

Team Experience: Joyful News and the Best/Worst Oscar Branches

by Nathaniel R

Later today a special edition of the podcast as Murtada, Nathaniel and Nick discuss the Oscar nominations. But, for now, our final group survey on the nominations so we can then move on to the nitty gritty of each category as well as return to new and old movies,  Film Bitch Awards, regularly scheduled programming, and all of that good stuff. We asked the team two more questions about the nominations and they answered like so. Please let your own voice be heard in the comments.

WHAT NOMINATION GAVE YOU THE MOST JOY TUESDAY MORNING?

JORGE MOLINA: I woke up my entire neighborhood when Marina de Tavira's name was called out. I was expecting a surprise Supporting Actress nomination, but not her. Marina's performance is such a striking and beautiful contrast to Yalitza Aparicio's (whose nomination was a lesser but equally great surprise), and one that reflects much deeper things about female and class relationships in the movie. It's not a big performance, but it's so nuanced and raw. I couldn't be happier she's getting the recognition, and that she's only the second supporting actress to be nominated for a foreign film ever! Viva Marina!

CHRIS FEIL: No single craftsperson deserves their nomination (or eventual win) more than costume designer Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther). I don't make the facts, I just relay them...

Click to read more ...

Best Director Fun. What a Category This Year!

How cute is this? Here's Adapted Screenplay nominee Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) celebrating Spike Lee's Best Director nomination for BlacKkKlansman:

And the biggest congrats to the 🐐 — ran into this portrait last night in Paris, couldn’t help but grab a selfie; no words necessary. And by every measure, this man — so necessary 👌🏿🙌🏿🙏🏿 pic.twitter.com/YXuzAwNdk3

— Barry Jenkins (@BarryJenkins) January 22, 2019

In related news: the Best Director Chart is updated and ready for your votes (who should win? vote every day!) and commentary. We've added trivia, stats, as well as speculated on "How'd they get nominated?" as is our annual habit. Let's take Spike Lee as an example. This is how'd we'd wager Spike got his nomination...

35% Reputation and do-over. An iconic director who'd never been so honored. Sorry about Do The Right Thing!
30% His biggest hit and best film in several years. Critically adored and guild supported, too. 
16% Timely themes - plus the world has caught up to him.
12% Cannes gave him an early boost and his movie instant highbrow cred.
7% Had the summer all to itself to percolate as Best Picture worthy

Find out how the others got nominated on the chart. Agree? Disagree? Are we forgetting a key factor? Do tell in the comments.

Final Best Director predictions: Will Lanthimos score?

Will the Academy's 512 wide director's branch go their own way this week while balloting for their nominations, or will they just co-sign what the Globes and the DGA said (i.e. Cooper, Cuarón, Farrelly, Lee, and McKay)? BAFTA, for all its myriad problems of trying to be part of the Oscar race rather than keep its own uniquely British identity, actually gave us a possibly best case scenario (i.e. Cooper, Cuarón, Lee, Pawlikowski, and Lanthimos)...

Click to read more ...

DGA nominees match the Globe lineup *exactly*

by Nathaniel R

This awards season keeps throwing us unpleasant curveballs. First Bohemian Rhapsody took the top prize at the Globes and now, the Director's Guild of America has decided to up and agree with the Globes exactly on the Best Director list.

Their nominations and statistical hand-wringing after the jump...

Click to read more ...