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Index of Predictions

 

The 83rd Oscars Honoring the Films of 2010 Are History

WHO WON: NATALIE PORTMAN, Black Swan
WHO SHOULD'VE WON: NICOLE KIDMAN, Rabbit Hole (my ballot is very similar to Oscars this year but of the year's great Best Actress performances, I was most impressed with Nicole Kidman's measured and beautifully unhistrionic portrait of grief and healing. She's such a magical dramatic actress. It's not the year's showiest work which is one reason why it's so moving, but the best.)

I predicted Annette Bening's loss because, as noted in a study for Tribeca Film, actresses in their 50s never win this prize. Oscar is extremely enamored by the Princess factor.

 

 Natalie Portman
BLACK SWAN
29 years old
30 films | 2nd  nomination
1st win!

wins: BAFTA, SAG, OFCS, Globes, BFCA, and many critics orgs
noms: SAG, Spirit, Satellites

Annette Bening
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
52 years old
21 films | 4th nomination

wins: Globes, NY plus 1 critics org
noms: SAG, BFCA, Spirit, OFCS, Satellites

Jennifer Lawrence
WINTER'S BONE
20 years old
5 films | 1st nomination!

wins: critics orgs
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA, Spirit, OFCS, Satellites

Michelle Williams
BLUE VALENTINE
30 years old
28 films | 2nd nomination

wins: critics org
noms: Globes, Spirit, BFCA Satellites


Nicole Kidman
RABBIT HOLE
43 years old
41 films | 3rd nomination, 1 previous win

wins: n/a
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA, Spirit, OFCS, Satellites

WINNER

TRIVIA
Born in Jerusalem, 5'3". Engaged and famously pregnant. She's an only child. Though she was involved with Black Swan for a long time, she's been dancing since she was a tiny thing. But then...
DEBUT
she was an early bloomer. The Professional (1994) in which she beat Chloe Moretz's controversial assassin "Hit Girl" to theaters by 16 years. Natalie was only 13 so she beat Michelle and Nicole (her competition) to the movies... but just barely.

TRIVIA
5' 8". Married to Warren Beatty. They have 4 kids. Bening is also one of 4 children so history repeats itself. (She famously had to dump the Catwoman role which then went to Michelle Pfeiffer due to first pregnancy).
DEBUT
The Great Outdoors (1988). She was, like Meryl Streep, a late starter to the movies already 30 at her film debut. Within 3 movies she was co-starring with Streep and within 4 she was Oscar nominated (The Grifters).
TRIVIA
5'7". Single. At the age of 20 she is the second youngest actress to ever be Oscar nominated in the lead actress category. The youngest is (and will probably remain) 13 year old Keisha Castle Hughes for Whale Rider.
DEBUT
Made three movies in 2008, but THE BURNING PLAIN with Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger is the one that got her attention.
TRIVIA
5'4" has one child with late actor Heath Ledger (RIP). Currently single. She recently helped launch a Yoga For Single Moms project.
DEBUT
Like Jennifer Lawrence she first gained attention as a television regular. She is the only alum of Dawsons Creek to be Oscar nominated. Her film debut came in Lassie (1994) wheh she was only 14 preceeding the Dawsons fame)
TRIVIA
The tallest of the nominees at 5'11" and taller than either of the men she's been married to. She is married for the second time to Keith Urban. Has 4 kids (2 adopted with Tom Cruise back in the day). She is actually an American citizen (born in Hawaii though she's quite famously one of the  biggest Australian stars. Apparently enjoys Katie Perry's hit single "teenage dream" ;)
DEBUT
BMX Bandits  and Bush Christmas (both 1983) at the age of 15.
 
HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED?

23% Performance: strong, using her own perpetually young / child star persona to great affect
21% Film is obsessed with the performance -- everything focusing on it.
19% Young and Beautiful, The Princess Factor.
15% Role. Mental instability + physical commitment required.
10% Dramatic ubiquitous celebrity and personal life
8% The Mila Kunis liplock
5% Surprise hit film.

46% Performance: emotional, funny, w/ more warmth than she's often asked to show. Kills it in her huge pivotal scene.
25% She's Annette Bening, Hollywood Royalty.
13% Role. Oscar likes straights playing gay. Marital betrayal is easy to relate to in Hollywood.
9% They owe her.
4% Julianne Moore 
3% Early traction in summer. It stuck.
1% "Interloper!"
33% Performance: moving and confident. She carries a quiet gripping drama.
31% Role: Sympathetic and brave and dead serious. Serious is a plus for awardage.
21% Crucial steady precursor support in crowded Actress season.
10% A film people felt passionate about getting behind. Indie darling.
5% Young and hot
3% John Hawkes & Dale Dickey 
51% Performance: Intense heartbreaking naturalism
20% Ryan Gosling. It really is a duet. Must have been a just miss Best Actor
11% Very clearly a serious actress. Making strong art and longevity-based choices 
10% Weinstein Co doing expert publicity wringing a lot out of that MPAA fiasco
5% Role: longsuffering
2% Young and hot
1% Wendy & Lucy plus Meek's Cutoff
38% Performance: Expert, mysterious, moving w/out showy manipulations of usual "grief" acting
28% Role: Grief = Bait.
14% Warm critical response and media love. These things are cyclical People suddenly forgot why they disliked her. Thank god!
7% Precursor support
6% Well known efforts to shepherd play to screen
5% She's Nicole Kidman
2% Radiating personal happpiness lately.
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