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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

DAMIEN CHAZELLE WON THE PRIZE

The Nominees Were...

Damien Chazelle
LA LA LAND
1st nom & 1ST WIN in this category!
32 yrs old | 3rd feature

Prizes
Critics Choice, Globe, DGA

 

Mel Gibson
HACKSAW RIDGE
2 noms | 1 win in this category
60 yrs old | 5 features

 

Barry Jenkins
MOONLIGHT
1st nomination!
37 yrs old | 2nd feature 

Prizes
NBR, NYFCC , LAFCA, NSFC, Gotham Winner,

 

Kenneth Lonergan
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
1st nom in this category!
53 yrs old | 3rd feature

 

Denis Villeneuve
ARRIVAL
1st nom in this category!
48 yrs old | 8th feature
never nom'ed in this category

INTERVIEW

 

 

HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED?

23% The new golden boy auteur
22% Exuberance behind the camera + degree of difficulty
15% Whiplash momentum
14% L.A. and industry pride. Movie magic is born here
11% Love of musicals
10% Box office - lots of pop culture hooks like "City of Stars" and "My Aunt used to live in Paris" + Emma & Ryan ♥︎
6% Critics & prizes 

40% Media's 'Comeback' narrative took - We forgive you. I mean, way grosser people are suddenly running everything who are not just mouthy
22% True stories = important.
20% "just one more"
8% Very little competition for the devout Christian votes this year 
7% Degree of difficulty
3% Box office  

45% Ecstatic critical response, precursors
20% That amazing ensemble + unexpected beauty of the craft work
11% diversity push
10% Degree of difficulty - directing children and something this intimate that feels big aint easy
8% Fresh voice behind the camera
4% LGBT vote
2% Solid box office for a difficult sell
41% Ecstatic critical response, precursor support
30% Touching universal topic: death and grief
19% actors & screenplay
5% Margaret and You Can Count On Me and Lonergan's rep
4% Strong box office for total downer 
1% "basement stuff" inspired touches of comedy make it bearable
33% Much needed message of empathy and communication
20% Amy Adams
15% Degree of difficulty. 
10% Sicario, Prisoners, Incendies momentum
9% Box office and word of mouth lingering effect
8% Something for everyone: ideas, sentiment, acting, craft, genre riffing
5% AMPAS warming up to sci-fi past 10 years

 

WHO WILL WIN?

Damien Chazelle has the edge with the most nominated film and if he wins he'll be the youngest Best Director winner of all time. (He's only 32). 

 

WHO WAS LEFT OUT?

The Directors Guild honored Garth Davis (Lion) who had a good shot here. My personal ballot included Park Chan-Wook (The Handmaiden) and Pablo Larraín (Jackie). Others thought Martin Scorsese (Silence) might rally at the last minute.