First Predictions: Best Actress is a Mystery!
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 9:00AM by Nathaniel R
Will Julianne Moore finally be back in the mix via THE DEBUT
While it took me uncomfortably long to complete the first round of Oscar predictions of the year, I've finally done so ending with Best Actress, Best Picture, Best International Feature Film, Best Director and Best Casting as the final charts to go up. But what I want to talk about is, naturally Best Actress. Quelle surprise! There are film years where one or two titans feel all but certain this early. There are years where it looks like an abundance of riches coming. And then there are years like 2026 that feel totally mysterious. In short I'm not at all confident about a single one of the women in this first wave of Oscar punditry. I tried many combinations and finally realized it's hardly a preordained year and anything might happen...
For instance, I'm not sure I genuinely believe that Julianne Moore will be nominated for the musical comedy The Debut -- I fear she's in the post-win purgatory that sometimes befalls cinematic giants who win in one of those "coronation" year -- but I just felt like predicting her anyway so I did. Maybe it's that I'm just genuinely excited about the movie. A Real Pain suggested to me that Jessie Eisenberg is growing into an amazing writer/director. I suppose the prospect of Scarlett Johansson in Paper Tiger and Sophie Okonedo in Clarissa (a Nigerian spin on Mrs Dalloway) were similarly enticing to me in that I love the actresses and the projects sound promising. But I also can see how that all three might appear to be foolish picks at this juncture. And yet... nobody in the forthcoming mix felt like a sure thing so why not just pick a someone surprising lineup with three actresses who I think do special work on the regular and manifest that they'll be greeted warmly when the films arrive.
Since I included those personal favourites I figured I should also predict two I'm not as remotely excited about as balance in Mikey Madison (The Social Reckoning) and Ruth Badeley (Being Heumann). Nothing against either actress, mind you, but the film topics and their writer/directors in particular are not filmmakers I'm particularly fond of.
But maybe not a single one of them will be nominated! Absolutely no one feels pre-ordained this year. Which is exciting!
Will Inde Navarrette's star-making turn in OBSESSION be a contender or is that just an online fantasy?
From films we've already seen Inde Navarette has the most buzz for her hugely exciting and thankfully star-making turn in Obsession. She has the kind of reviews that any actor or awards strategist would dream of but Oscar is often weird about genre films. Does the recent win for Amy Madigan for Weapons signal a new openness to the horror genre within the acting branch or will they mostly revert to their modus operandi that only traditional dramas contain "Best" performances. And speaking of genre films, I was personally bowled over by Emily Blunt's fascinating and fluid and vaguely possessed but chill about it performance in Disclosure Day. Scene after scene my heart was racing and I genuinely couldn't predict how she'd play any given moment. Performances like that are so exciting to me. Still I don't rank her higher than #15 in the current hopefuls list because if there's one genre that the acting branch struggles with the most it's science fiction. There's a real dearth of sci-fi nominees across Oscar history; horror is far far better represented in point of fact!
Will Tao Okamoto & Virginie Efira become critical causes in the French drama ALL OF A SUDDEN?
That's just name-checking about seven women but there are a ton more female leads coming for the devoted actressexual to anticipate. Last year's nominee Renate Reinsve (Fjord), the currently ubiquitous Sandra Hüller (Rose or Fatherland), perennial bridesmaid Michelle Williams (A Place in Hell), Two-time winner Cate Blanchett (Sweetsick), that French goddess Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden) who I'm always shouting the praises of for anyone who will listen, and rising star Daisy Edgar-Jones (Sense & Sensibility) are all on the horizon. And that's just scratching the surface of some of the leading ladies any of us might be obsessing over a handful of months from now.
Who are you most excited about seeing and who do you think we'll be nominated in six months time?
ALL FIRST-ROUND OSCAR CHARTS
- Index of Predictions
- Best Picture NEWLY POSTED
- Best Director / Best Casting NEWLY POSTED
- Best Actress NEWLY POSTED
- Best Actor
- Best Supporting Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best International Feature Film NEWLY POSTED
- Original and Adapted Screenplay
- Costume Design, Cinematography, Etc...
- Original Score, Sound, Etc...
Reader Comments (4)
In those long lists for Actress and Director, I didn't see Olivia Wilde mentioned anywhere. Does she really have no chance at all for The Invite?
You would be foolish not to predict Julianne or Paul Giamatti,2 Oscar favourites in a film about acting directed by an actor whose last screenplay nearly won an Oscar and it's been 12 years now so it might be time for Julianne's last Oscar hurrah but I get the Sarandon/MacLaine/Hayward of it all.
Just a thought but Focus Features has just picked up the Ian Charleson biopic Elsinore dealing with his last years living with AIDS and the Dr that befriended him and his performance of Hamlet whilst gravely ill,Olivia Colman and Andrew Scott are the leads and we know Scott has been on the rise and deserved a supporting bid last year for Blue Moon and Olivia is now an Oscar favourite but could be supporting,it's baity real life tragic death etc etc.
I don't see Daisy Edgar Jones making it,she hasn't wowed me much anyway.
Navarette definitely has a shot if critics rally behind her.
Michelle Williams is in the same spot Julianne was in 12 years ago.
Reisve maybe
Huller is going to get in somewhere this year.
Blunt is always good,her versatility is astonishing yet everyone heaps the praise on Cate B but Blunt has been killing it now for 20 years now with hardly any duff performances but her film needed to be huge.
Johansson no,she wasn't given to the rafters praise.
If it was No to thompson a bigger star last year then it's definitley a No to Okenedo who i can't forgive for stinking up Angela Lansbury's old part in the Death On The Nile Remake.
I wonder if Mikey can prove her win wasn't a fluke,I loathe her Anora performance and win.
Cate Blanchett should always be considered,she is beloved and respected.
Madeley seems solid on paper but she'll need guild and critic love.
Agreed that Blunt is exceptionally interesting in Disclosure Day, playing that character as sort of "fascinated-but-also-let's-just-wait-and-see" about whatever it is that's happening inside of her.
From what I've watched til now:
Navarette in Obsession-so overrated. Not her, the performance. She's very good but with that over the top role every good actress could have done the same thing.
Emily Blunt in Disclosure Day-yes, please. It's her time, she's fantastic as usual and you can see that she has so much fun with the role as usual.
Sandra Huller in Rose-you're all sleeping on this. I don't think it will be only a Berlin thing. Huller in this movie is great, but great great as she gave one of the best female performances of the decade.
Einbinder/Anderson in Teenage sex and death at Camp Miasma-They're both sensational with this crazy screenplay. And Anderson can perfectly fit in supporting and it wouldn't be a category fraud.
Zendaya in The Drama-Loved this movie a lot, but I think it will be forgotten from the race.
Anne Hathaway and Margot Robbie in Prada and Wuthering Heights-please don't