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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Congratulations to Patricia Arquette who steamrolled all season.

 

Patricia Arquette
1st nom & 1st win
46 y.o. | 35 films

"Mom" 
Boyhood
(IFC)
July 11th

Laura Dern
2nd nomination
46 y.o. | 36 films 

"Bobbi"
Wild
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 17th

INTERVIEW

 Keira Knightley
2nd nomination
29 y.o. | 28 films 

"Joan Clark"
The Imitation Game
(Weinstein Co)
Nov 21st

1st nomination!
26 y.o. | 17 films

"Sam"
Birdman
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 17th

Meryl Streep
19 noms | 3 wins
65 y.o. | 48 films 

"The Witch"
Into the Woods
(Disney)
Dec 25th

 Role: A single mother of two wonders if there's anything more

The MVP of the frontrunner and lets herself age onscreen (literally!)

awards
NYFCC, LAFCA (lead) + Globe, BFCA, most critics groups
nom:
SpiritSAGGLOBE
BFCA,OFCS, Gotham

Role: a mother impart wisdom to her daughter while dying

She's warm force that tether's Reese's earthy journey into something spiritual and intangible from her flashback scenes

awards
n/a
nom:
n/a

Role: The only female in the team that broke the Nazi's "Enigma Code"

She grants her lines dramatic heft while simultaneously keeping them endearing / light with  clipped speech and wit.

awards
1 critics group
nom:
SAGGLOBE
BFCABIFA (lead)

Role: The angry recovering addict daughter of a washed up movie star

Everyone in Birdman is keeping its spirit raucously jagged with vivid furiously f***ed up star turns

awards
1 critics group
nom:
SpiritSAG,
 GLOBEBFCA

Role: An old and ugly witch seeks to reverse a curse

It's the marquee role and Meryl chews it like scenery while belting out great Sondheim numbers

awards
n/a
nom:
SAGGLOBE
BFCA

How'd They Get Nominated?
 
40% The movie. A Best Picture frontrunner with a wonderful grabby concept
25% Performance.
14% "I just thought there would be more"
11% Precursor sweep
6% Nostalgia / Past work /  Career Achievement.  We saw her at all these ages / hairstyles but didn't know Linklater would show them to us again!
4% Role. Oscar loves a longsuffering mom. 
30% She's Laura Dern, beloved in Hollywood and appearing in a Prestige pic
24% Role. Wild practically deifies her warmth, and loveliness and Oscar loves a dying mom
18% Performance. 
10% All that time on the circuit last year promoting her Dad's Oscar campaign. a warm up for this one.
10% Reese Witherspoon
6% Enlightened
2% The Fault in Our Stars 
50% Role. The only woman in a Best Picture
21% Performance. She humanizes Benedict's aspergers-like protagonist
17% That Movie Star intro, wherein the movie is willingly wrapped around her finger ("You said to do it in under five minutes.")
9% "Sometimes it's the people who..." like an ear worm hit song you'd like to forget... but can't! 
3% Begin Again 
25% A respected well liked young star who is...
24% finally appearing in a prestige Picture
20% Performance. Sam's hostility shades everything but never overpowers the other emotions
17% Role and Ensemble. Co-stars upping her game + Andrea and Naomi don't have enough to do to steal her thunder.
9% "You hate bloggers!" 
5% precursor support 
60% She's Meryl Streep, Default Nominee Legend
11% Role. Showy and tailor made for legendary diva actresses
10% Precursors in lock step to honor her
9% Performance. That voice is such a great musical instrument 
7% Huge hit fresh in the memory. Still bankable!
2% "Stay With Me"
1% Flashes of vain Death Becomes Her brilliance

 

Who Was Left Out?

Jessica Chastain had a decent run in the precursor for her fabulous mobster's daughter gone straight (sort of) role. And many people were rooting for Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer or Rene Russo for Nightcrawler. But when Meryl Streep makes a movie there are only 4 slots left so it's tough to find room. 

 

Who Will Win?

Odds are good that Patricia Arquette takes this. No one else is due save for Dern and it's the teensiest role amongst these five

 

Who Should Win?

You mostly sang the praises of Patricia Arquette, just like all the precursors. Here's how the votes went