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Index of Predictions


The 83rd Oscars Honoring the Films of 2010 Are History

Who Won: Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
Who Should've Won:
David Fincher for The Social Network.

 

Nomination Snubs? It's hard to complain about this list in the grand scheme of things (though I'm sure many will bemoan the loss of Debra Granik here as a neat follow up to Kathryn Bigelow's Oscar win last year). But here's my ballot. 

 David Fincher
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
48 years old 
8 films | 2nd nomination
(in this category)

wins: Globes, BFCA, NBR, Satellite, BAFTA, multiple critics

The Coen Bros
TRUE GRIT
3rd nom, 1 previous win
(in this category)

wins: n/a
noms: BFCA

 Darren Aronofsky
BLACK SWAN
41 years old
5 films | 1st nomination!
(in this category)

wins: minor critics org
noms: Globes, BFCA, Satellite

Tom Hooper
THE KING'S SPEECH
38 years old
2 films | 1st nomination!
and 1st win.

wins: DGA, NBR
noms: Globes, BFCA, Satellite

David O. Russell
THE FIGHTER
52 years old
5 films | 1st nomination!

 
wins: n/a
noms: Globes

His career began spectacularly with several classic music videos. 1992 saw his first feature in theaters (Alien 3) and after a few arguable modern classics (Fight Club, Zodiac) Oscar finally got wise to him (Benjamin Button). Sometimes they're late to the party.
Their filmography is pretty spectacular and though  True Grit is their 4th best picture nominee after Fargo, No Country For Old Men and A Serious Man. This western is their first true box office smash but Oscar voters have been wise to them for years. Sometimes they're right on time to the party. The strangest thing about his nomination might be that he didn't have to soften his often bold and confrontational and (psychological) horror laced style to get it. We suspect that The Wrestler finally earned him enough respect that they noticed how talented he has always been.
WINNER
He's had major awards success with TV movies  and minis (Elizabeth I, Longford, and John Adams) so Oscar probably shouldn't be that much of a surprise. But it's only his second film. His theatrical debut was 2009's The Damned United.
One of Hollywood's most  idiosyncratic filmmakers and we're all better off for it! Even with an Oscar nomination he's still quite undersung. Few directors are as gifted with noisy dramedic ensembles (see also: I Heart Huckabees, Three Kings, and Flirting With Disaster)
 
 How'd They Get Nominated?
 
29% Absurdly confident  thrilling handling of scenes that often feel flat in other films: depositions, typing, etcetera...
19% Critical & industry rep as Quality Auteur
16% Precursor Support
11% Performances.
10% Screenplay.
9% awesome editing
5% The Curious Case of Benjamin Button's Oscar Heft.
1% Zodiac obsessives
40% Fargo, No County,, Raising Arizona, etc...
23% Directing their first smash hit. Congrats!
15%   Reuniting with "The Dude". Finally!
10% Overall craftsmanship.
8% Temporary (Hailee) Insanity.
 3% "That's the one starring John Wayne right?" - Confused, old timers vote.
1% Roger Deakins
31% Huge precursor support softened Oscar's natural genre resistance.
29% Great campaign and film marketing.
19% An oddity with something for everyone: highbrow culture, lowbrow genre, big performances, showy visuals
14% Charisma, Uniqueness, Nerve, Talent
10% Natalie & Mila. Natalie & Mila's liplock.
5% The Wrestler
1% He's not Chris Nolan.
43% The performances. Rep as an actor's director.
30%  Sentiment. It's something that NONE of his competitors work at / are known for. Thus, he hogs all such votes.
10% Precursor support.
9% Anglophilia + Royalty Porn.
5% Colin Firth Coronation Coattails
3% Quirky framing. Some people hate it but the visual effort surprises people.

34% Credited with the boisterous energy of the film. And with helping...
23% ...great acting.
15% Precursor support
14% Curio and "comeback" value of sorts: Director with storied hot temper totally adored by current team of actors.
10% Oscar likes true stories, inspirational tales, boxing. Ding Ding Ding.
3% Closet fans of past efforts. Undersung filmography.
1% He's not Chris Nolan.