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Directors (For Sama)
Lulu Wang (The Farewell)
Ritesh Batra (Photograph)
Schmidt & Abrantes (Diamantino)
Jia Zhang-ke (Ash is Purest White)

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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

final predictions


Bryan Cranston
59 yrs old
1st nomination!

Nov 6th


Matt Damon
45 yrs old
3 noms for acting
The Martian
Oct 2nd


Leonardo DiCaprio
41 yrs old
5 noms for acting
The Revenant

BSFC, Globe, SAG

Michael Fassbender

38 yrs old
2 noms 
Steve Jobs
Oct 9th  


Eddie Redmayne
34 yrs old
2 noms | 1 win
The Danish Girl
Nov 27th









How'd they get nominated?
30% Bait: Movies about showbiz are always attractive to showbiz types. Oh don't judge -- tTake any selfies lately?
27% Breaking Bad
26% Performance - hammy, sure, but entertaining and he absorbs the criticism of Trumbo as an affected speaker, with sentences written in stone
17% Precursor lockstep
35% He's Matt Damon. one of Hollywood's inner circle (see also Brad & George) 
30% Box Office / Performance: Carrying a massive hit and doing all the crowd-pleasing yourself is a neat trick
20% Bait: They like a good survival story.
9% "I'm going to science the shit out of this"
6% Precursor support
29% He's Leo DiCaprio +  hasn't won yet
25% Bait + Campaign: 'I was cold! I ate Raw Bison Liver!'
22% Timing / BP heat
10% Performance. He's been distilling this star turn of anguish for years - shoutout to the Dead Wives Club
9% the bear
5% Precursor say "Give him that Oscar already!" 
30% Bait: Oscar loves antiheroes and biopics
22% Performance
15% He's Michael Fassbender, actor's actor and the disinterest in campaigning only ups his prestige factor
12% Kate Winslet humanizes him
11% Aaron Sorkin throws actors so much furniture to chew on  
10% Precursor love 
63% Supersized Bait: It's a hot topic, a biopic, and Oscar has always loved straight actors being "brave" in LGBT roles
20% Alicia Vikander kept the movie in play from her 'it girl' status despite box office and lukewarm reviews
15% Precursors paved the easy way to a nomination
2% Theory of Everything love hangover

Trivia Fun

• OSCAR WINNING ROLES: If by some miracle Bryan Cranston won he'd be the second actor to win for playing a previous Oscar winner (the first being Cate Blanchett as Katharine Hepburn in The Aviator)

• GENDER: If by some miracle Eddie Redmayne won it'd be the first leading actor win for a female character though not the first Oscar win for someone playing another gender -- that was Linda Hunt as a male photographer in The Year of Living Dangerously (1983)

• MULTI-HYPHENATES: Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio have also been nominated outside of acting categories. Damon won screenplay for Good Will Hunting and DiCaprio was nominated for producing Best Picture contender Wolf of Wall Street

• EGOT?: Bryan Cranston (Emmy & Tony) and Eddie Redmayne (Tony & Oscar) are halfway there

'Will? Should? Could?' Win

Will Win: Leo finally has it. In part due to the lukewarm competition but mostly due to his long wait for the gold. (Though really in the grand Oscar scheme of things he hasn't had to wait that long -- just ask Burton, O'Toole, Pacino, Bridges, Newman, and the like)

Should Win: Michael Fassbender's complex psychological portrait versus Matt Damon's entertaining pop star turn - either would make good winners

Could Win: Nope. Not even close this time.

Who got left out?


Men who were in the discussion included Johnny Depp (Black Mass) who was SAG nominated, Will Smith (Concussion) who was Globe nominated, and Sir Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes) who campaigned well for his arthouse hit.

Curiously neither Tom Hanks wonderful film-carrying turn (Bridge of Spies) nor Michael B Jordan bulked up but vulnerable ascendance (Creed) eemed to garner any traction though Jordan did win a very late prize from the NSFC.. Overseas Tom Courtenay (45 Years), Michael Caine (Youth) and Tom Hardy (Legend) were celebrated a bit but that feeling didn't cross the Atlantic.