First Oscar Predictions of the Year - Complete!
Friday, July 11, 2025 at 7:00PM 
Whew. That took longer than expected but you can now see all of the "April Foolish" first-round predictions for this Oscar year, albeit compiled in May & June and delivered to you in early July. Since the first wave of 20 categories takes so long to compile (updates are easier) we should note up front that James Vanderbilt's Nuremberg, another film centered on the Nuremberg Trials, was scheduled for a November 2025 release after the weeks of research for these charts so it is not yet included. That said we can hardly claim it a certainty as a competitor. World War II is no longer automatic "Bait" for voters, Vanderbilt is not (yet) an Oscar player and though the cast has four previously nominated actors none are the sort that Oscar voters ALWAYS watch regardless. Anyway, we'll save it for the next up date.
What follows are a dozen key questions were asking ourselves in July about the upcoming competition before things really heat up during the fall film festivals. We've love to hear your thoughts on these 12 questions...
- Sinners feels very safe for Best Picture honors (massive hit and critically acclaimed too) but is it really a slam dunk for across-the-board nominations or will its genre elements turn off enough voters to cause it trouble? (The acting branch, which happens to be the largest branch, is the branch that's still most resistant to genre films) Voters are more adventurous than they used to be but a vampire musical still seems like a considerable ask.
- Will the new Best Casting category be exciting -- there's no precedent at all so we have no stats or trivia to guide us -- or will it just default to being a Best Picture Part Two or a mirror to SAG's Outstanding Cast prize? And who wins the very first Oscar in this category? I'm currently guessing Francine Maisler since she's a big name and she cast Sinners, Deliver Me From Nowhere, and The Lost Bus for 2025.
- I've accidentally predicted four movies to share the "Most Oscar Nominated Film of the Year" honor (with 9 nods each) and that rarely happens. One or two films are usually way out front, so what did I do wrong there and which of those four am I over and under-estimating?
- Will voters want to reward both halves of Wicked via repeat nominations and wins, or will they think last year's tally was plenty? We keep changing our minds on this but we think that director Jon M Chu has a good shot if he sticks the landing.
- Will Best Director be all men again and if not, am I right that Chloe Zhao might be the likeliest to disrupt the usual sausage party?
- Which movies without significant hopes of doing well in craft categories will be embraced for Best Picture nods? I'm currently guessing Netflix's George Clooney & Adam Sandler dramedy Jay Kelly & Richard Linklater's miniature period bio Blue Moon but who knows, right? Do you have an alternate pick in this regard?
- I'm predicting that Norway finally wins Best International Film via Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value but it's way too early to assume that that will be an easy get in a category that's often volatile. And given the fact that Oscar has gone much more international in recent years, what other film that's not in the English language will crossover into major categories?
- One Battle After Another is apparently almost three hours long (no surprise from long-winded Paul Thomas Anderson) and filled with action setpieces (that's something quite different for him!) so we don't know whether to predict it everywhere or predict that it's not their thing at all. What's your guess in terms of this film's reception?
- We're betting that ever-prolific Luca Guadagnino's will get some attention for After the Hunt but how much? And if it's not this film what will it take to get the full embrace from the Academy?
- Which film will score the most nominations WITHOUT a Best Picture berth? In our charts you'll see that we're guessing that Frankenstein, Ballad of a Small Player, and Avatar Fire and Ash are the ones vying for that 'close but no cigar' citation.
- Speaking of, are we totally underestimating Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia and Edward Berger's Ballad of a Small Player? Both auteurs have been in the Best Picture race twice already...
AND FINALLY... - Which of the upcoming probably-at-fall-festivals flicks that we've (mostly) ignored -- distribution is not yet certain and they could end up in 2026 -- will actually be snapped up, released in time, and prove to be a big deal: At the Sea? Dead Man's Wire? Ann Lee? Rosebrush Pruning? Bucking Fastard? Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde? In the Hand of Dante?
Anxious to hear your take. What is YOUR crystal ball telling you?
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR & CASTING | LEAD ACTRESS | LEAD ACTOR
SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
ANIMATED FEATURE | SCREENPLAYS | VISUALS | SOUND & MUSIC
Reader Comments (16)
I am surprised The Life of Chuck completely fell off your list of possibilities.
This flick was never going to be a box office hit. The film appeals to an older audience. Forgotten stars from 1980s hits (Mark Hamill from Star Wars, Mia Sara from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, Matthew Lillard from the live action Scooby Doo) are revived and give strong performances. Actors love to support comebacks.
I expect this quiet little Stephen King adaptation to generate buzz among older Academy voters during its streaming cycle this Fall. That word of mouth will build and result in some attention next January.
The Lead Actor predictions seem a bit rushed - DiCaprio & Johnson are not happening.
Every year is a great year for movies.
BUT
Not every year is a great year for awards.
There’s lots of movies that I want to see, but I won’t be reading or talking much about awards, because there are so many that I have no longer any interest in seeing.
I feel a SURFEIT, where one has seen so much of one thing that it makes you sick to look at any more of it ( although the thing itself may be fine).
I feel a surfeit of aging white male actors and celebrities demanding to be taken seriously year after year; fashionable directors pounding out the same thing, demanding their genius be recognized; marketeers peddling their mediocre wares; the same old genres, stories, casts, being labelled “important”.
But I hope that we all find movies that we really love this year, and I won’t spoil other people’s enjoyment of what they choose for themselves.
Nice to see regular posts form you.
1 - I have yet to see Sinners so I couldn't say but I htink people are high on it now cos nothing else from the first 6 months seems likely,it'll either be forgotten or get some craft nods.
2 - I hope this category recognises the talent and skill casting needs,I am not familiar with any names so I couldn't predict anyone but Jay Kelly,After The Hunt seem likely.
3 I think you're overestimating Wicked 2 or maybe it's my bias for Emmy type nods and especially One Battle After Another,I think you are underestmating The Smashing Machine it has everything they love.
4 A few technical nods and that's it hopefully.
5 Apart fromTriet and Safdie i think you're dead wrong,I would move Zhao,Baumbach,Guadagnino and Benny Safdie further up your charts.
6 Ella McKay Jay Kelly After The Hunt and The Smashing Machine
7 I think it's either Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent both have that crossover appeal which this category has leaned into more and more this past 10 - 15 years,it's now which film can make money.
8 I think OBAA is this years big contender that crashes and burns,I don't even have faith in consistent box office draw Leo,it's tone seems like a hard sell to Joe Public,it will hit on Leo's name alone and maybe Anderson to a lesser extent but I could be proved wrong.
9 After the Hunt is getting at least 5 nods and they will be big ones Pic.Dir,Actress,Supp Actor and Supp Actress,there's also a chance for editing and very likely screenplay,with George and Julia in the mix and on the promo circuit you just know they will be championing each other all season long,they are 2 sure things to me so far out.
10 Sinners
11 Bugonia seems like more of a hard sell than his last couple of films plus they do move on eventually see David O Russell
12 I am looking forward to Madeline Hynde,premise sounds great and the cast is good,I only want Amy Adams in the mix if she is totally and utterly undeniable I t would be nice for Pamela Anderson after she unfaily missed last year and look out for Angelina Jolie in Couture.
I completely forgot about Nuremberg which I expect to be a major Oscar player but perhaps not win much a la Conclave etc the prestige historical drama about an important time in history with a starry cast,just a hunch,may turn out to be just a commercial play.
"Though she rarely acts anymore let's not pretend she isn't great at it."
Thank you. Pretending Gwyneth Paltrow couldn't act was a sport long before Goop.
Vive la Gwynaissance!
As I've mentioned in a few other comments threads, I have a feeling about Hedda. Of course, it all depends on how Amazon MGM handles things after its TIFF debut. It'll be streaming a week after its premiere in theaters.
Sinners will have staying power and get a Best Picture nomination—several people I know (myself included, in fact) have waited long past its opening weeks to see it, and it's still a big topic of conversation and appreciation. As far as acting nominations go, I can see Jordan getting in for playing twins, but I think Hailee Steinfeld, Delroy Lindo and (especially) Jack O'Connell have even better chances in supporting.
I feel a surfeit of aging white male actors and celebrities demanding to be taken seriously year after year; fashionable directors pounding out the same thing, demanding their genius be recognized; marketeers peddling their mediocre wares; the same old genres, stories, casts, being labelled “important”. E-ZPass MA
I feel like Dwayne Johnson missing is a predictable snub. Exactly the type of actor who could miss, no matter how good the performance
I am calling it now. Sinners will win Best Picture, and Coogler will be the first Black Best Director winner. It's the perfect timing.
Jafar Panahi and It Was Just an Accident feel like strange omissions to me. Panahi seems pretty likely in Director, more so than a number of those listed in the top tiers (Scott Cooper is not James Mangold and won't get nominated; John M. Chu feels like a long shot since he didn't get in last year; Joseph Kosinski is not getting in for F1 when he didn't get in for Maverick).
Thanks so much for writing this! The article is clear, thoughtful, and really helpful. I learned something new today.
flappy dunk
Now that Steve’s Lava Chicken Song from A Minecraft Movie by Jack Black and Jared Hess has become the shortest song ever to land on Billboard’s Hot 100 (at one minute and fifteen seconds in its extended play), does it have a shot at a Best Song nomination?
Thanks so much for writing this! The article is clear, thoughtful, and really helpful. I learned something new today.
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