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William Holden in Picnic

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"My mother's favorite actor. His dance with Kim Novak is an unforgettable movie moment." -Jaragon

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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

The Nominees
Wes Anderson
45 y.o. | 8 films
first nomination in this category
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu
51 y.o. |  5 films
2nd nomination in this category | 1st win!
Birdman
Richard Linklater
54 y.o./17 films
first nomination in this category
Boyhood

Bennett Miller
47 y.o. | 3 films
2nd nomination
Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum
47 y.o. | 4 films
1st nomination
Imitation Game

 Articles

His time finally came.

wins
n/a
nominations
DGA,
OFCS, Globes, BFCA

They've loved his brutal work and now they've taken to his rare audaciously comic side. Plus: technical virtuosity .

wins
DGA + some critics 
nominations
Spirit, Globes, BFCA

 Articles 

They admired his decade plus commitment not to mention the fine results.

wins
Globes, BFCA, NY, LA, + many critics groups
nominations
Spirit, DGA, OFCS


Articles

The Cannes win signalled more honors to come. 

wins
Cannes
nominations
n/a

 Articles
His movie hit Oscar's sweet spot.

wins
n/a
nominations
DGA 

How'd they get nominated?
40% Early release. Time to solidify as his biggest hit, build goodwill
34% Overdue Career - there's no one else like him
16% Precursor support to remind Oscar about him especially that SAG ensemble nomination - he directs big casts so well with stylized perfection 
6% Best Picture heat
3% Ralph Fiennes, dahling
1% ski chase
45%Technical virtuosity
18% Creative left turn for acclaimed miserabilist 
12% Showbiz navel-gazing. What director can't relate to Riggan Thomson's foolhardy ambition and career panic?
10% Precursor support Well timed release
9% Best Picture heat
4% Oscar likes his movies
2% Girl on girl action for a branch that's 95% old men 
58% Conceptual bravery and commitment. He was making this movie for 12 years! 
11% Execution ...And it turned out so good, too!
10% Career Culmination. Dovetails so neatly with his time-centric best ("Before" series)
9% Best Picture heat
5% It's not Girlhood 
4% Summer release. Counterprogramming win
3% Super smart casting
33% Default. The Academy loves his movies
30% Extremely heavy tone + Big ideas = This Is Very Important
12% Trio of Actors
11% Cannes win = A+ stamp of approval
7% Controversies
6% Deeply concerned with masculinity. Oscar is too.
1% Channing Tatum in a singlet - what? there are some gay directors voting
34% Best Picture Heat
19% Campaigning.
18% World War II fetish - even Unbroken got 3 nominations
13% Timing. Came out of the gate strong at festivals but wisely held back a little before campaign ubiquity
9% Terrific cast elevating the material
7% All the liberal political oomph of 'don't hate on the gays' without any of the icky gay stuff! 
WINNER: in a tight race with Richard Linklater Alejandro prevailed 
Omissions: The internet is angriest about the great AVA DUVERNAY missing and so are we - she would have been the first woman of color nominated in this category. The DGA took a stand for Clint Eastwood and the Globes are saying 'what, no David Fincher?'

Should Win: That's where you came in. And you were decisive again...