The Film Experience

Whew. That took longer than expected but you can now see all of the "April Foolish" first-round predictions for this Oscar year, albeit compiled in May & June and delivered to you in early July. Since the first wave of 20 categories takes so long to compile (updates are easier) we should note up front that James Vanderbilt's Nuremberg, another film centered on the Nuremberg Trials, was scheduled for a November 2025 release after the weeks of research for these charts so it is not yet included. That said we can hardly claim it a certainty as a competitor. World War II is no longer automatic "Bait" for voters, Vanderbilt is not (yet) an Oscar player and though the cast has four previously nominated actors none are the sort that Oscar voters ALWAYS watch regardless. Anyway, we'll save it for the next up date.

What follows are a dozen key questions were asking ourselves in July about the upcoming competition before things really heat up during the fall film festivals. We've love to hear your thoughts on these 12 questions...

Sinners feels very safe for Best Picture honors (massive hit and critically acclaimed too) but is it really a slam dunk for across-the-board nominations or will its genre elements turn off enough voters to cause it trouble? (The acting branch, which happens to be the largest branch, is the branch that's still most resistant to genre films) Voters are more adventurous than they used to be but a vampire musical still seems like a considerable ask.
Will the new Best Casting category be exciting -- there's no precedent at all so we have no stats or trivia to guide us -- or will it just default to being a Best Picture Part Two or a mirror to SAG's Outstanding Cast prize? And who wins the very first Oscar in this category? I'm currently guessing Francine Maisler since she's a big name and she cast Sinners, Deliver Me From Nowhere, and The Lost Bus for 2025.
I've accidentally predicted four movies to share the "Most Oscar Nominated Film of the Year" honor (with 9 nods each) and that rarely happens. One or two films are usually way out front, so what did I do wrong there and which of those four am I over and under-estimating?
Will voters want to reward both halves of Wicked via repeat nominations and wins, or will they think last year's tally was plenty? We keep changing our minds on this but we think that director Jon M Chu has a good shot if he sticks the landing.
Will Best Director be all men again and if not, am I right that Chloe Zhao might be the likeliest to disrupt the usual sausage party?
Which movies without significant hopes of doing well in craft categories will be embraced for Best Picture nods? I'm currently guessing Netflix's George Clooney & Adam Sandler dramedy Jay Kelly & Richard Linklater's miniature period bio Blue Moon but who knows, right? Do you have an alternate pick in this regard?
I'm predicting that Norway finally wins Best International Film via Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value but it's way too early to assume that that will be an easy get in a category that's often volatile. And given the fact that Oscar has gone much more international in recent years, what other film that's not in the English language will crossover into major categories?
One Battle After Another is apparently almost three hours long (no surprise from long-winded Paul Thomas Anderson) and filled with action setpieces (that's something quite different for him!) so we don't know whether to predict it everywhere or predict that it's not their thing at all. What's your guess in terms of this film's reception?
We're betting that ever-prolific Luca Guadagnino's will get some attention for After the Hunt but how much? And if it's not this film what will it take to get the full embrace from the Academy?
Which film will score the most nominations WITHOUT a Best Picture berth? In our charts you'll see that we're guessing that Frankenstein, Ballad of a Small Player, and Avatar Fire and Ash are the ones vying for that 'close but no cigar' citation.
Speaking of, are we totally underestimating Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia and Edward Berger's Ballad of a Small Player? Both auteurs have been in the Best Picture race twice already...

AND FINALLY...
Which of the upcoming probably-at-fall-festivals flicks that we've (mostly) ignored -- distribution is not yet certain and they could end up in 2026 -- will actually be snapped up, released in time, and prove to be a big deal: At the Sea? Dead Man's Wire? Ann Lee? Rosebrush Pruning? Bucking Fastard? Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde? In the Hand of Dante?

Anxious to hear your take. What is YOUR crystal ball telling you?