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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

MAHERSHALA ALI WON THE PRIZE

The Nominees Were...

 

 

Mahershala Ali
MOONLIGHT
1st nom & 1ST WIN!
(42 yrs old)
Oct 21st
Reviewed 

Wins
Spirit Ensemble, NYFCC, Critics Choice , LAFCA

Role
Juan, a drug dealer who befriends the young son of one of his customers

Jeff Bridges
HELL OR HIGH WATER
7 noms | 1 win
(67 yrs old)
August 12th
Reviewed 

Wins
NBR

Role
A cop nearing retirement chasing down two bank robbers in Texas

Lucas Hedges
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
1st nomination!
(20 yrs old)
Nov 18th
Reviewed 

Wins
Critics Choice (Young Actor)

Role
A teenage boy loses his father and his uncle comes to town with ambivalence of parenting him

Dev Patel
LION
1st nomination!
(26 yrs old | 9th movie)
Nov 25th 
Reviewed 

Wins
 BAFTA

Role
A college student, haunted by memories of his childhood, decides to find his birth family

Michael Shannon NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
2nd nomination
(42 yrs old)
Nov 18th
Reviewed 

Role
A cancer stricken cop tracks down rapist / murderers with a grieving widower

HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED?
50% Film + campaign  Moonlight is deeply loved. And like Octavia in Hidden Figures he became the vessel with which to show that love.
20% Performance. Smart minimalist counterpoint to Harris's maximalism
20% His growing respect in Hollywood and having a great year. See also: Hidden Figures, Luke Cage
10% Two interesting additional boosts. Gets the film's title scene and thanks to Trevante Rhodes mimicry, his soul lingers despite an early departure from the film
45% Performance and Star. He's Jeff Bridges. Doing his best Bridgesian thing... but with nuance and flair
25% Role. Classic cop role. Plus he's the morally outraged soul of a movie meant to outrage in its economic trigger story
15% The movie's Best Picture heat and devout fanbase 
10% Precursors singled him out when they could have gone with Foster 
5% That conversation with the T Bone waitress 
30% Role + Performance. In such a heavy film, he's the film's least troubled soul. And the casual humor and boy next door realism the talent young actor brings to it goes a long way.
30% Critical support for film and its actors
30% Precursors. Lack of settling on any of his competitors despite him being young for Oscar 
10% Chemistry with Casey 
25% The role. It's moving and sympathetic.
20% A vote for Dev is a vote for Sunny Pawar... at least emotionally if nonsensically
19% Precursors and campaign And it always helps to have a huge leading role in the supporting categories
18% Performance: his best yet
10% Whoa, Dev got hot!
6% Lion's international popularity
2% Residual Slumdog obsessions 
30% Nocturnal Animals has devout fans and even its many haters think Michael Shannon is good in it (*raises hand*)
30% Performance & Role. He's an actor's actor and he always delivers, jazzing up even stock roles
25% Curiously, Aaron Taylor Johnson's BAFTA/Globe heat probably helped in a strange way reminding people "sure but... Michael Shannon is better!"
5% Sorry about 99 Homes 

 

WHAT CLIP SHOULD THEY PLAY?

Telling stories of his childhood to 'Lil' Anything with his great scene partner Gil Birmingham "strictly basement business" Smelling the jalebis A coughing fit? I don't know

 

WHO WILL WIN?

I WAS WRONG WITH THIS RISK -- I'm going out on a limb and say that Dev Patel upsets the frontrunner Mahershala Ali. Ali lost both the Globe and the BAFTA suggesting vulnerability. Plus Lion was surging during voting and its a lead role. Leading roles always help in supporting categories.

 

WHO WAS LEFT OUT?

Hugh Grant, who campaigned supporting despite an unquestionably lead role in Florence Foster Jenkins, was a last minute shut out. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) became the first Globe winner in this category not to be Oscar nominated since the 1970s. Me I was partial to Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight) and Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash) among others