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Index of Predictions

The 83rd Oscars Honoring the Films of 2010 Are Now History

 DID/SHOULD HAVE WON: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Christian Bale
THE FIGHTER
37 years old
31 films | 1st nomination & Win!

wins: SAG, Globes, BFCA, NBR plus 12 critics orgs
noms: OFCS, Satellites

Geoffrey Rush
THE KING'S SPEECH
59 years old
32 films | 4 noms | 1 win

wins: BAFTA, minor critics orgs
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA, OFCS, Satellites

John Hawkes
WINTER'S BONE
51 years old
45 films | 1st nomination!

wins: minor critics orgs
noms: SAG, Spirit, OFCS

Jeremy Renner
THE TOWN
40 years old
19 films | 2nd consecutive nomination

wins: n/a
noms: SAG, Globes, BFCA, Satellites

Mark Ruffalo
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
43 years old
40 films | 1st nomination!

wins: NYFCC
noms: SAG, BFCA, Spirit, OFCS

Trivia: Mother/Son Oscar character wins are rare. Can He and Leo pull this off? If he wins he'll be the 4th Nolan/Batman franchise actor to be an Oscar winner :) (after Ledger, Freeman and Caine)

Middle Name
Charles Philip

Trivia: Speech Therapy is not new to Oscar. My Fair Lady won 8 Oscars for 1964. Rush is a triple crowner and the only member of this group to already have an Oscar (for Shine). He's one of three Aussie actors nominated this year (see also: Nicole Kidman and Jacki Weaver)

Middle Name
Roy

Trivia: Though Winter's Bone is a major breakthrough he's not entirely new to awards season. He's a 3 time SAG nominee (ensemble nominations for Deadwood and American Gangster prior to this film)

Middle Name
none

Trivia: This year is unusual in that there are three consecutive nominees (usually there is only one) with Bridges, Firth and Renner -- all nominated for Best Actor last year -- back for another nom.

Middle Name
Lee"

Trivia: He's the shortest Supporting Actor nominee this year at 5' 9". Like Geoffrey Rush, he frequently spends time on stage, too. And, like his character, he's fertile (haha). He has more children than any of his competitors (Ruffalo: 3; Rush: 2; Bale: 1)

Middle Name:
Alan

 
How'd They Get Nominated?
42% Role: Biographical Baity: Drug addict, Redemptive arc
41% Performance: Digs weigh down. His signature (scary) commitment but also super-likeable. Finds the comedy in heavy role.
9% Critical Push: Overdue Serious Thespian Factor.
5% Amy, Mark & Melissa
3%
He's Patrick Bateman
33% Role: Eccentric, biographical, a mentor and they like that in "Supporting" Leads.
32% Performance: Much subtler than it could have been given the theatrics. Entertaining.
12% Frontrunning film
10% He's Geoffrey Rush
9% Precursor steadiness
6% Colin Firth
65% Performance: Adds  to film's incomparable tenseness memorably.
13% Role: Good but would have been ignored with a lesser actor
12%
Awards narrative & precursor follow through: hardworking character actor gets his due.
6% Jennifer Lawrence
3% Smashing counterpart in Dale Dickey
1% Deadwood fans
45% Role: Oscar loves the villains in this category most of all.
30% Performance: Coiled, angry and believably Bostonian.
19% The Hurt Locker afterglow
4% Ben Affleck
2% The Town -- they couldn't think of anywhere else to honor it.
45% Performance: Charismatic, sympathetic but also nuanced enough to see why he's no good for the family.
25% Role: It's a hell of a script.
22%
Yeah, sorry about You Can Count On Me. You've been awesome for a decade! (Overdue factor)
6% Early hit. Early traction. It stuck.
2% "I love lesbians"
 

 

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