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"A big factor is "are the voters watching the entire season of these shows?" From my bubble everyone watched Big Little Lies and Feud in its entirety - and in real time." - Ellsworth

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84th Oscars. Oscar Race for the Films of 2011
AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

 

Will Win: Dujardin
Could Win: Clooney
Should Win: Pitt
It's a three-way race and none of the men stopped campaigning. Can't wait to see that envelope open in (presumably) Natalie Portman's hands.
Reader's Rank (Polling Closed): 1. DUJARDIN (37%) 2. PITT (29%) 3. OLDMAN (14%) 4. CLOONEY (12%) and 5. BICHIR (5%)

 

Fun Facts: Brad Pitt stars in two Best Picture nominees and also has two nominations this year (one more for producing Moneyball and he also produced The Tree of Life... though he was not selected as one of the nominated producers so he didn't get three nominations) and his friend George Clooney also has two noms (one more for writing The Ides of March)

DEMIAN BICHIR
48 years old
1st nomination!
A BETTER LIFE


wins: --
  
GEORGE CLOONEY
50 years old
4 noms | 1 win (in acting categories)
THE DESCENDANTS 

prizes:
Globes
, BFCA,
NBR, and many critics prizes
JEAN DUJARDIN
39 years old
1st nomination!
THE ARTIST 
wins: Cannes, Globes, and critics prizes
GARY OLDMAN
53 years old
1st nomination!
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
prizes: 
San Fran and career tributes
BRAD PITT
47 years old
3 nominations
MONEYBALL
 
prizes:
 NYFCC and NSFC
How'd he get nominated?
TBA TBA TBA TBA TBA
Who got snubbed?

It was a stacked field this year. In terms of precursor support both Michael Fassbender and Leonardo DiCaprio both seemed like solid guesses. Fassbender in particular has a lot of critical enthusiasm and media support though his film was always going to be a tough sell with Academy voters. Critical darling Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) also seemed to be in play but couldn't manage a second surprise nomination without precursor support (a la Revolutionary Road). Nathaniel's Personal Ballot

Who will win?
According to the BFCA and The Globes this is George Clooney's to lose. It is odd though that this seems to be happening with such ease for a previous Oscar winner in a non-stretchy performance when one of his very best friends, an equally shiny movie star, is in the running in a career peak year. What's going on here? Can Brad Pitt rally any late race support? Confusing. Confusing so The Artist helps Dujardin since he helped The Artist (so very much) and the first Frenchmen wins!