88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only
THE NOMINEES ARE...
|How'd they get nominated?|
|28% How has she never been nominated?
24% Bloody Bait: Oscar loves pure evil and the film pivots on her POV
20% Performance - that miming a noose. Heh
13% NBR notice + Timing
11% Misogyny, Bloodlust, and Tarantino Stanning
3% Oh look there's a girl at this sausage party
1% 'Well, it's her or Mirren'
|41% Lavender Bait: Oscar loves gay flavored tears
40% Category Fraud and precursor approval. Supporting nods easy get for Leading Ladies
18% Performance: Subtle for Oscar but very fine
12% Cannes win is major prestige factor
8% Well, if Cate loves her that much!
2% nostalgia for Dragon Tattoo crush
|32% Best Pic heat. Everyone ♥ Spotlight
14% Authentic Bait: Real life heroic role
13% She's Rachel McAdams who Hollywood and audiences root for
8% Brian D'Arcy James and the day players
6% How we got through True Detective S2
5% Regina George 4evah!
2% Oh look there's a girl at this sausage party
|25% Performance: She steals the movie out from under Mr Best Actor
23% Category Fraud and Precursor Approval: Supporting nods easy gets for Leading Ladies
21% Timing + Hotness. Hollywood's new "it" girl
16% Ex Machina
15% Comfort Bait: a touchy topic but she's got the most traditional of roles - longsuffering wife + real person
|31% Performance + Chemistry: Who knew that she'd prove so electric with Fassbender?
28% Timing + Precursor lockstep. Got out there early and traction stuck.
19% Elaborate Plating Bait: Wait, THAT sorta Polish woman with the hair is Kate Winslet?
17% Welcome back!
5% Audience surrogate appeal. Verbal slappings of obnoxious boss
• Of the four acting shortlists this year this one is the one with the least variance in age this year and also with the most Oscar virgins
• Alicia Vikander was the only one raised as an only child but she has 5 half siblings. Vikander and Leigh were both born into families with showbiz connections (Vikander's mother was a stage actress and Leigh's parents were an actor and a screenwriter)
• For many years it was assumed Kate Winslet would be the new Meryl Streep with Oscar but then she slowed down. For comparison's sake at Kate's age now Meryl had 8 nominations and 2 wins with another nomination (Postcards from the Edge) just a year away.
• Winslet & Leigh both worked with their director ex-husbands on one film (Winslet with Sam Mendes on Revolutionary Road and Leigh with Noah Baumbach on Margot at the Wedding)
|Will / Should / Could|
Will Win: It's going to be a close race but I think Alicia Vikander may eke out the victory on the heat of her "it girl" status more than for The Danish Girl itself, and also because Kate Winslet already has an Oscar.
Should Win: Kate Winslet (yes, Rooney Mara is amazing in Carol but she doesn't belong in this category!)
Could Win: Kate Winslet or Rachel McAdams if the Academy feels guilty about not honoring Spotlight enough elsewhere (a long shot, though)
Who Got Left Out?
Precursors paid notice to the following actresses: Kristen Stewart from Clouds of Sils Maria was the most awarded of the also rans with attention from several critics groups including NYFCC, BSFC, OFCS, and the César win in France. Jane Fonda was Globe nominated for Youth, Cynthia Nixon received Spirit and OFCS nominations for James White and Julie Walters was a BIFA honoree for Brooklyn. Finally Mya Taylor was nominated for her work in Tangerine at the Gotham Awards