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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

EMMA STONE WON THE PRIZE

The Nominees Were...

 

Isabelle Huppert
ELLE
1st nom!
63 yrs old | 100 films
Nov 11th
Reviewed

wins
Gotham, Globe, NY, LA, NSFC

Role
Michelle Leblanc, video game entrepeneur, rape victim, infamous since childhood due to her father's crimes

 

 

Ruth Negga
LOVING
1st nom!
35 yrs old | 12 films

Nov 4th 
Reviewed

Role
Mildred Loving, a Virginian girl who marries her white boyfriend and finds herself at the center of the country's growing anti-miscegenation civil rights turmoil

 

Natalie Portman
JACKIE
3rd nom |1 win
35 yrs old | 37 films
Dec 9th 
Reviewed

wins
Critics Choice

Role
Jackie Kennedy, the famous First Lady, struggling to insure her husband's legacy, the immediate aftermath of his assassination 

 

Emma Stone
LA LA LAND
2nd nom | 1ST WIN!
28 yrs old | 22 films
Dec  2nd
First Impression

wins
SAG, Globe 

Role
Mia, an aspiring actress and old movie lover, who falls for a jazz enthusiast pianist as they both struggle with their careers

Meryl Streep

FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
20th nom | 3 wins
67 yrs old | 53 films 
Aug 12th 
Reviewed 

wins
Cecil B DeMille 

Role
Heiress Florence gained infamy for her legitimately terrible singing voice. Nevertheless she ended up at Carnegie Hall  

 

How'd they get nominated?

52% The performance + critical/awards response. She's a f***ing genius
42% She's a screen legend who'd never been nominated and the campaign smartly never let up
7% She kept it tight
5% The Piano Teacher, Amour, etcetera
4%  AMPAS's dormant but occasionally triggered Francophilia
1% Things to Come
-11% The Role. Not their cuppa 
35% A very smart campaign, keeping the lowest profile competitor high profile. Don't think that was easy.
24% The sympathetic Role. Oscar loves bio pics, and civil rights heroes
19% Wonderfully evocative if subdued performance
8% Stunning red carpet presence. Invite her again!
6% Precursors
5% Release date before the glut gave people time to fall in love.
 
32% The film is obsessed with the performance -- everything focusing on it. 
31% Strong performance: Oscar loves a mimic
29% Role and memories and affection for the Kennedys. Oscar loves actors pretending to be other famous people.
6% The film's devout if small fanbase
2% Black Swan flashback. She's pregnant again on red carpets
30% The Movie. A huge hit and she's its soul
20% Timing. A fast-rising popular movie star, making good on all of the early promise. With Oscar it's often about timing.
15% Performance. So charming. 
10% "My aunt used to live in Paris..."
8% Precursor support
7% The Role. Oscar likes actors playing actors
7% Ryan Gosling
3% Those jewel tone dresses
50% She's Meryl Streep, Default Nominee, Legend
20% Anti-T**** sentiment. That Golden Globe speech surely swayed all undecided voters
15% Hugh Grant is so great with actresses
10% Sympathetic Role. Real person based plus Showy
7% Performance. So much fun.
-2% Amy Adams. They could only have one of their defaults... but we bet it was close.

 

What clip should they play at the Oscar?

Talking to her cat pretty please The best phone acting ever please Something unexpected bitchy. "I don't smoke" perhaps? One of the terrible auditions. Not "Audition" When she's making up lyrics to Cosmo's song. So funny

 

Who will win?

Emma Stone is the favorite with La La Land tying the record for most nominations ever (14). But there is a slim possibility that critical darling Isabelle Huppert who is perfect in an insanely difficult role in Elle could prove a spoiler. She's campaigned hard

 

Who was left out?

I was partial to Sonia Braga (Aquarius) and Annette Bening (20th Century Women), but precursors definitely tried to make Amy Adams (Arrival) and Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) happen.