Oscar Volleys: Three still standing for Best Picture. Who wins tonight?

The penultimate Oscar Volley. This morning, Abe Friedtanzer, Eric Blume, and Nathaniel R discuss the category at the top of the Academy mountain.

NATHANIEL: "BEST PICTURE!" He shouts with horror, as Team Experience reaches the final day of Oscar season with this category not yet volleyed. By now readers have had a chance to see all of our Predictions, and my own multiverse grappling with what might play out tonight  along with most of my own alternate ballot. Best Picture may well be the last award presented on regular Oscar nights, but it's far from the least. In fact, one could argue you should always BEGIN with Best Picture in your discussions since all awards are affected by it. "Trickle down" is a scam in economic turns, but it's very real at the Oscars where voters have historically voted for their favourite in as many 'lesser' categories as they can justify, often with ridiculous results in terms of the nominations and statuettes in  craft categories. Because we have reached the end of the season, apologies to the filmmakers behind Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, I'm Still Here, Wicked, A Complete Substance, and even nomination leader Emilia Perez... but I think we can safely say that none of these films have a prayer in hell of taking the top prize.

Consensus, history, and momentum (in various quantities) suggests that only the epic drama The Brutalist, papal thriller Conclave, and raw and reckless indie Anora could win Hollywood's highest prize. BUT preferential balloting always throws a fascinating wrench into the popularity contest that is the Oscar race. Not only do you have to have a lot of votes in the end, but you also have to be ranked highly on ballots you don't win if the race is close. And won't it be? So what say you gentlemen? Who has the advantage and do pundits put too much stock into the "ranking" of preferential ballots.

ABE: Nathaniel, I think you meant A Complete Unknown, not A Complete Substance, but I think that speaks to how that those films aren't going to be major players. I think that, prior to Karla's tweets coming up, Emilia Perez could have competed, and both Wicked and The Substance could have been in play too had they done better on nominations day. But it's down to the three you mentioned...

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Team Experience: Final Oscar Predictions!

by Cláudio Alves

ANORA | © NEON Rated

The Oscars are almost upon us, but the posting continues here at The Film Experience, with some volleys still waiting in the wings and maybe something more. For now, it's time to present the Team Experience's final predictions in all Oscar categories, from Best Picture to those pesky unpredictable Short Film races. At the end of this crazy awards season, most of our writers lean toward Anora taking the top prize, while Best Director is more evenly split between Corbet and Baker. The acting categories may look locked up, but some surprises could happen, and the "below the line" honors are a headache and a half as far as punditry's concerned. All in all, only seven categories inspired unanimous predictions…

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Oscar Volleys: As usual, Best Live-Action and Documentary Short Film are hard to predict

The Oscar Volleys continue, even as the Academy Awards ceremony draws ever closer. Tonight, Cláudio Alves and Ben Miller discuss the Best Live-Action and Documentary Short races...

ANUJA | © Netflix

CLÁUDIO: Well, we're starting to run out of Oscar categories to discuss at The Film Experience. But we couldn't go into the season's pinnacle without giving some attention to the two least-loved races - Best Live-Action and Best Documentary Short Film. And look, I get it. AMPAS rarely showcases good short-form cinema, having a bizarre predilection for miserabilism and stupid twists, moral lectures, and very little audiovisual invention. Where is Godard, or John Smith, or Leos Carax, or Steve McQueen, or Laura Citarella, or Takashi Miike? Nevertheless, AMPAS' favorite miniature pictures deserve to be considered, and there's even a highlight or two to celebrate. Do you agree?

BEN: Every year, these categories give me something that really knocks my socks off. Even if you have something like Animated Short, those are usually very digestible or play in front of a wildly popular Pixar film.  That's not the case with these.  You really have to go out of your way to see these shorts, but they are so very worth it...

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Nathaniel's final predix: What kind of Oscar night will we be having?

by Nathaniel R

The big story from the SAG Awards last weekend was the continuing rise of Conclave and A Complete Unknown in the awards race. The fires in Los Angeles had previously wreaked havoc on people’s lives, many of whom work in the industry we obsess over so the event carried that story forward. More superficially (we recognize that this hardly matters in context!) the fires disrupted the usual flow from December’s mandatory “Best of” list explosion through the call and response of the various precursors and on to Oscar night. This makes it far more difficult than usual to predict what’s coming as there’s not necessarily any cause and effect from one event to the next given the messy timelines of voting. 

How much did the Emilia Perez scandal hurt a film oscar voters clearly loved in January? How many more voters watched I’m Still Here AFTER its surprising success on nomination morning? Do people love The Brutalist or merely admire it? Is Anora really out front as the DGA and PGA suggest? Will Conclave prove the adult contemporary tune that tops the charts amongst a sea of rowdy garage band hits (Anora, The Substance), folksy callbacks (A Complete Unknown) and would-be operatic bangers (The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two)? I have so many questions...

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Oscar Volleys: Brody vs. Chalamet in Best Actor

The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Eric Blume and Eurocheese discuss the Best Actor race...

SING SING | © A24

ERIC:  Hi Euro, I'm thrilled for this one-on-one with you to discuss our five Best Actor candidates.  While I'm eager to discuss the actual race, because I think we have a real race here with several possible outcomes...what are your thoughts on the nominees themselves?  How do you feel about the five?  I think one is a little weaker than the rest (and that's Colman Domingo, more to come), but all in all a wonderful quintet full of talented actors doing very fine work.  What is your take?

EUROCHEESE:  That's funny - of the five here, Colman Domingo would actually have my vote…

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