Weekend Awards Wrap-Up: From the Vatican to Vegas
Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 9:00PM 
Mikey Madison crashes into the Best Actress race thanks to BAFTA.
Last weekend marked the rapid ascendance of Anora as the Oscar Best Picture frontrunner. This past week's guilds honors haven't dispelled that notion, though BAFTAs might have, with Conclave taking the top prize from the British Academy. Will the race come down between a doomed Vegas wedding and a Vatican election, or will another contender rise with SAG next Sunday? From social media controversies to precursor disharmony, his season has been uncommonly chaotic and I, for one, am loving this sense of unpredictability. As much as we like to presume otherwise, this isn't a numbers game and stats exist to be broken. So let's break them…
We have a bunch of winners to consider this weekend, including two awards bodies where I get to cast my vote. For succinctness, I've excised the Hollywood guild's TV honors since big screen honors are the priority right now at The Film Experience. We're starting with the Brits.
BAFTA FILM AWARDS
Best Film: CONCLAVE
Best Director: Brady Corbet, THE BRUTALIST
Best Actress: Mikey Madison, ANORA
Best Actor: Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Best Supporting Actress: Zoë Saldaña, EMILIA PÉREZ
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Best Casting: Sean Baker & Samantha Quan, ANORA
Best Original Screenplay: Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Straughan, CONCLAVE
Best Editing: Nick Emerson, CONCLAVE
Best Cinematography: Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
Best Production Design: Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales, WICKED
Best Costume Design: Paul Tazewell, WICKED
Best Make-up & Hair: THE SUBSTANCE
Best Special Visual Effects: DUNE: PART TWO
Best Original Score: Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST
Best Sound: DUNE: PART TWO
Best Animated Film: WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
Best Children's & Family Film: WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
Best Documentary: SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY
Best Film Not in the English Language: EMILIA PÉREZ
Outstanding British Film: CONCLAVE
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer: Rich Peppiatt, KNEECAP
Outstanding British Short Animation: WANDER TO WONDER
Outstanding British Short Film: ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS
EE Rising Star Award: David Jonsson
After DGA and PGA, Sean Baker seemed to be the industry's darling, but the British Academy looked elsewhere for its top honors. It shakes the race, though Anora remains the Best Picture frontrunner. Its claim on the Best Director prize is more uncertain, however, with Corbet showing he can succeed with his industry peers. The same is true of the Original Screenplay race, where Anora lost to A Real Pain. Remember when it lost the CCA to The Substance despite winning Picture? This really is an odd season.
Nevertheless, the Palme d'Or winner took home Best Actress, stopping Demi Moore's sweep. Suddenly, Madison feels competitive for the Oscar win, and Torres' profile keeps rising thanks to Sony Pictures Classics' tireless campaign. The other acting categories feel more locked up, even if SAG goes wild and diverges from the season's norm. Chalamet losing here, despite BAFTA's infatuation with his movie, is especially telling. The Oscar is Brody's to lose.
Elsewhere, the Emilia Pérez PR kerfuffle didn't hurt its chances in Supporting Actress and Non-English Language Film. Audiard making sure to mention Karla Sofía Gascón's name in his acceptance speech might have. It's interesting how it lost the music award to The Brutalist. Could we be heading to a Best Original Song upset on Oscar night?
In other news, the Wallace & Gromit double dipping might spell doom for Flow's chances. Many were hoping for a repeat of last season when The Boy and the Heron took the Globes and BAFTA prizes before the Oscar, defeating a big Hollywood opponent. Right now, The Wild Robot seems better poised to take the little golden man all the industry covets.
DORIAN AWARDS
Film of the Year: THE SUBSTANCE
LGBTQ Film of the Year: I SAW THE TV GLOW
Director of the Year: Coralie Fargeat, THE SUBSTANCE
Film Performance of the Year: Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Supporting Film Performance of the Year: Ariana Grande, WICKED
Screenplay of the Year: Justin Kuritzkes, CHALLENGERS
LGBTQ Screenplay of the Year: Jane Schoenbrun, I SAW THE TV GLOW
Animated Film of the Year: FLOW
Documentary of the Year: WILL & HARPER
LGBTQ Documentary of the Year: WILL & HARPER
Non-English Language Film of the Year: I'M STILL HERE
LGBTQ Non-English Film of the Year: EMILIA PÉREZ
Unsung Film of the Year: PROBLEMISTA
Unsung LGBTQ Film of the Year: THE PEOPLE'S JOKER
Genre Film of the Year: THE SUBSTANCE
Film Music of the Year: CHALLENGERS
Visually Striking Film of the Year: NICKEL BOYS
Campiest Flick: THE SUBSTANCE
"We're Wilde About You!" Rising Star Award: Jonathan Bailey
Wilde Artist Award: Colman Domingo
GALECA LGBTQIA+ Film Trailblazer: Cynthia Erivo
Multiple Team Experience members are part of GALECA and get to vote for the Dorians. Overall, we can be proud of a good slate of winners. Sure, I have one major objection, but it's easy enough to overlook. Those wins for Problemista and The People's Joker are the stuff dreams are made of, and it's nice to see all three major Wicked stars get honored through different categories. Long live the Dorians! Long live GALECA!! And long live queer cinema in all its wondrous forms!!!
INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY
Best Picture:
- ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT, Payal Kapadia
- THE BEAST, Bertrand Bonello
- NICKEL BOYS, RaMell Ross
- HARD TRUTHS, Mike Leigh
- MISERICORDIA, Alain Guiraudie
- AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE, Albert Serra
- TO A LAND UNKNOWN, Mahdi Fleifel
- GRAND TOUR, Miguel Gomes
- EVIL DOES NOT EXIST, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
- CAUGHT BY THE TIDES, Jia Zhangke
- THE OTHER WAY AROUND, Jonás Trueba
- THE ROOM NEXT DOOR, Pedro Almodóvar
- THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG, Mohammad Rasoulof
- THE BRUTALIST, Brady Corbet
- CHALLENGERS, Luca Guadagnino
- MEGALOPOLIS, Francis Ford Coppola
- ANORA, Sean Baker
- I SAW THE TV GLOW, Jane Schoenbrun
- JUROR #2, Clint Eastwood
- THE SUBSTANCE, Coralie Fargeat
Best Director: Payal Kapadia, ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT
Runner-Up: Bertrand Bonello, THE BEAST
Best Actress: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, HARD TRUTHS
Runner-Up: Léa Seydoux, THE BEAST
Best Actor: Mahmood Bakri, TO A LAND UNKNOWN and Abou Sangaré, SOULEYMANE'S STORY (tie)
Best Supporting Actress: Michele Austin, HARD TRUTHS
Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, NICKEL BOYS
Best Supporting Actor: Aram Sabbagh, TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adam Pearson, A DIFFERENT MAN
Best Ensemble: ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT
Runner-Up: HARD TRUTHS
Best Original Screenplay: Mike Leigh, HARD TRUTHS
Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross, NICKEL BOYS
Runner-Up: Bertrand Bonello, Guillaume Bréaud & Benjamin Charbit, THE BEAST
Best Editing: Albert Serra & Artur Tort, AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE
Runner-Up: Yang Chao, Matthieu Laclau & Xudong Lin, CAUGHT BY THE TIDES
Best Cinematography: Jomo Fray, NICKEL BOYS
Runner-Up: Artur Tort, AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE
Best Production Design: Katia Wyszkop, THE BEAST
Runner-Up: Stefani Baisi, QUEER
Best Score: Hiromi Uehara, BLUE GIANT
Runner-Up: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, CHALLENGERS
Best Sound Design: Nahuel Palenque, PEPE
Runner-Up: Nicolas Becker, DAHOMEY
Best Animated Film: FLOW
Runner-Up: SANATORIUM UNDER THE SIGN OF THE HOURGLASS
Best Documentary: AFTERNOONS OF SOLITUDE
Runner-Up: NO OTHER LAND
Best Debut Film: BLUE SUN PALACE
Runner-Up: GHOST TRAIL
Breakthrough Performance: Abou Sangaré, SOULEYMANE'S STORY
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, ANORA
I'm very proud of being an ICS member. Its winners are always so cool and, in the past, served as an excellent guide for less buzzy titles worth exploring. This year, I'd heartily recommend a great many of these honorees. Indeed, if you love the art of acting, all our winners and runners-up are essential viewing.
Also, check out that incredible Best Score winner. Blue Giant also took this category at the 12th Team Experience Awards. Stay tuned for updates on that front, for we're announcing our nominees for the 13th annual awards on Tuesday. Any predictions on your part, dear reader?
ANNIE AWARDS
Best Feature: THE WILD ROBOT
Best Feature – Independent: FLOW
Best Special Production: ORION AND THE DARK
Best Short Subject: WANDER TO WONDER
Best Direction – Feature: Chris Sanders, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Voice Acting – Feature: Lupita Nyong'o, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Writing – Feature: Matïss Kaza & Gints Zilbalodis, FLOW
Best Music – Feature: Kris Bowers, THE WILD ROBOT
Best FX – Feature: THE WILD ROBOT
Best Character Animation – Feature: Fabio Lignini, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Character Animation – Live Action: KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Best Character Design – Feature: Genevieve Tsai, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Production Design – Feature: Ritchie Sacilioc & Raymond Zibach, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Storyboarding – Feature: Habib Louati, THE WILD ROBOT
Best Editorial – Feature: THE WILD ROBOT
Once again, The Wild Robot keeps consolidating its status as an Oscar frontrunner. Flow remains its biggest adversary, an independent animation phenomenon unlike anything we've seen for such a small picture. Weirdly enough, the Latvian film's biggest win here isn't so much the Independent Feature award it was always bound to take. Instead, it's the writing category, where it managed to defeat The Wild Robot despite having no dialogue whatsoever – a rarity in the realm of feature animation, though not nearly as special if we broaden our scope to shorts.
ART DIRECTORS GUILD
Period Feature Film: Craig Lathrop, NOSFERATU
Fantasy Feature Film: Nathan Crowley, WICKED
Contemporary Feature Film: Suzie Davies, CONCLAVE
Animated Feature Film: Raymond Zibach, THE WILD ROBOT
It feels significant that The Brutalist couldn't win against Nosferatu. Some folks have been predicting a Lincoln-like upset, where Best Production Design goes to Corbet's film instead of Wicked – since the sets are so central to the narrative – but these guild results suggest otherwise.
ASSOCIATION OF MOTION PICTURE SOUND
Excellence in Sound for a Feature Film: DUNE: PART TWO
I've been holding on to the idea that either Wicked or A Complete Unknown will take Best Sound. AMPAS has always favored music-centered films in this category. But maybe it was Dune all along, repeating its predecessor's victory. I guess I'll believe it when I see it. Its meager nomination haul, even if it did include a Best Picture nod, doesn't support more optimistic readings of the sci-fi epic's Oscar prospects.
BRITISH SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Cinematography in a Feature Film: Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
Operators Award: Karsten Bloch Jacobsen & Simon Finney, WICKED
The critics mostly favored Nosferatu in their cinematography prizes, but The Brutalist might be about to take the Oscar. The Best Picture boost will help it, though it might also benefit Dune: Part Two. This race isn't allergic to repeated honors, sometimes sticking to their favorite for years on end. Could Fraser be Lubezki 2.0?
CASTING SOCIETY OF AMERICA
Feature – Bid Budget Comedy: WICKED
Feature – Big Budget Drama: A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Feature – Animation: THE WILD ROBOT
Feature – International: EMILIA PÉREZ
Feature – Studio or Independent Comedy: MY OLD ASS
Feature – Studio or Independent Drama: CONCLAVE
Feature – Low Budget Comedy or Drama: JANET PLANET
For a Best Picture frontrunner, Anora has struggled to make an impression with the guilds past its important DGA and PGA wins. It wasn't even a nominated for these Artio Awards. One wonders if this could presage a loss with SAG, where Wicked, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, and Conclave are all vying for the Ensemble prize. In other words, is Anora like Best Pictures of the past, or are we looking at a repeat of 1917's awards season?
COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD
Excellence in Contemporary Film: Lisy Christl, CONCLAVE
Excellence in Period Film: Linda Muir, NOSFERATU
Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film: Paul Tazewell, WICKED
I confess I was rooting for a Substance upset in contemporary costumes but all of this makes sense, honoring Oscar nominees in every category. A re-watch of Conclave made me re-appreciate Christl's work, which I already liked in the first round, so this victory is no reason to get butthurt about. As ever, I'm delighted by any trophy Nosferatu gets.
MAKE-UP ARTISTS AND HAIR STYLISTS GUILD
Best Contemporary Make-Up: THE SUBSTANCE
Best Period and/or Character Make-Up: WICKED
Best Special Make-Up Effects: THE SUBSTANCE
Best Contemporary Hair Styling: THE LAST SHOWGIRL
Best Period and/or Character Hair Styling: WICKED
Speaking of Nosferatu, the make-up artists and hair stylists were not hot for bat boy Orlok. This changes nothing in terms of Oscar predictions, of course. The Substance remains the frontrunner, with Wicked solidifying its position as likely runner-up.
SET DECORATORS SOCIETY OF AMERICA
Contemporary Feature Film: Cynthia Sleiter, CONCLAVE
Period Feature Film: Regina Graves, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Fantasy or Sc-Fi Film: Lori Mazuer & David Morison, BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Comedy or Musical Feature Film: Lee Sandales, WICKED
Another curious loss for The Brutalist, where one would think it'd get an easy win. Also, three cheers for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice getting a win thanks to this guild's decision to put Wicked in their Comedy or Musical race rather than Fantasy. I really thought Tim Burton's movie could make it to the Oscars earlier in the season.
SOCIETY OF COMPOSERS AND LYRICISTS
Outstanding Original Score for a Studio Film: Kris Bowers, THE WILD ROBOT
Outstanding Original Score for an Independent Film: Daniel Blumberg, THE BRUTALIST
Outstanding Original Song for a Dramatic or Documentary Visual Media Production: Diane Warren for "The Journey," THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
Outstanding Original Song for a Comedy or Musical Visual Media Production: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross for "Compress/Repress," CHALLENGERS
David Raksin Award for Emerging Talent: Andrea Datzman, INSIDE OUT 2
Emilia Pérez might be facing some backlash in Hollywood because that Challengers win would have probably been theirs if not for the controversy. But you know what Oscar-nominated song prevailed? Diane Warren's latest bid for gold. I might write about it later on a post of its own, but, at this point, AMPAS might as well give it to her. Considering the competition, it wouldn't even be an outrageous robbery. And we all know she wants it. Few in Oscar history have wanted it as much as Diane Warren.
VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY
Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature: KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature: CIVIL WAR
Visual Effects in an Animated Feature: THE WILD ROBOT
Character in a Photoreal Feature: Robbie Williams in BETTER MAN
Character in an Animated Feature: Roz in THE WILD ROBOT
Environment in a Photoreal Feature: The Arrakeen Basin in DUNE: PART TWO
Environment in an Animated Feature: The Forest in THE WILD ROBOT
CG Cinematography: Arrakis in DUNE: PART TWO
Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project: Renaissance Space Station in ALIEN: ROMULUS
Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature: Atomic Explosion and Wormriding in DUNE: PART TWO
Effects Simulation in an Animated Feature: THE WILD ROBOT
Compositing & Lighting in a Feature: Wormriding, Geidi Prime and the Final Battle in DUNE: PART TWO
Emerging Technology Award: Neural Performance Toolset in HERE
How did Dune lose the main prize after taking so many smaller, more specific, categories? That feels like something of an upset within the rarefied world of guild honors. Another interesting tidbit is just how well The Wild Robot did. Maybe it came closer to that Best Visual Effects Oscar nomination than most supposed. It wouldn't have been an undeserved honor had it nabbed another nomination. The painterly render of particle effects took my breath away in theaters.
WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Best Original Screenplay: Sean Baker, ANORA
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross, NICKEL BOYS
Best Documentary Screenplay: Mark Monroe, JIM HENSON: IDEA MAN
The WGA is always a dubious precursor for pundits since many Oscar contenders are deemed ineligible due to guild rules. Nevertheless, Anora beat A Real Pain, one of its big rivals in the race for Oscar gold. As for Nickel Boys, the only other Oscar-nominated script in the WGA lineup was A Complete Unknown. However, there were other Best Picture contenders – Dune: Part Two and Wicked. One could suppose those titles would have trumped Ross' film, which has had some difficulty getting noticed with the industry awards. A win on Oscar night would be a dream and a shock like none other. It could also guarantee its distribution in many international markets where it's been unable to find a foothold – at the moment, there's still no Portuguese release, for example, and it's going straight to Amazon Prime in Australia.
AUSTRALIAN ACADEMY OF CINEMA & TELEVISION
Best Film: BETTER MAN
Best Director: Michael Gracey, BETTER MAN
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, BABYGIRL
Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
Best Supporting Actress: Zoë Saldaña, EMILIA PÉREZ
Best Supporting Actor: Guy Pearce, THE BRUTALIST
Best Screenplay: Jesse Eisenberg, A REAL PAIN
Better Man was the big winner at the AACTAs, where a few Oscar contenders got some more trophies for their haul. Best Actress is another story since this is one of the few places Kidman managed a victory. This is undoubtedly due to home advantage, but her work in Babygirl earns the plaudits and then some. It's a pity this silver screen goddess can never get AMPAS to notice her bolder turns. They only ever nominate her when the adventuress actress recedes into more conventional material.
IRISH FILM & TELEVISION ACADEMY
Best Film: SMALL THINGS LIKE THESE
Best Director: Rich Peppiatt, KNEECAP
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, THE OUTRUN
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, SMALL THINGS LIKE THESE
Best Supporting Actress: Saoirse Ronan, BLITZ
Best Supporting Actor: Brian F. O'Byrne, CONCLAVE
Best Casting: Carla Stronge, KNEECAP
Best Script: Enda Walsh, SMALL THINGS LIKE THESE
Best Editing: Julian Ulrichs & Chris Gill, KNEECAP
Best Cinematography: Robbie Ryan, BIRD
Best Production Design: Susie Cullen, ABIGAIL
Best Costume Design: Zjena Glamocanin, KNEECAP
Best Hair & Make-Up: Sandra Kelly & Tom McInerney, THE APPRENTICE
Best Original Music: Die Hexen, FRÉWAKA
Best Sound: Aza Hand & Hugo Parvery, ODDITY
Best Documentary: THE FLATS
Best Animated Short Film: DEMBAYA
Best Live-Action Short Film: CLODAGH
Best International Film: CONCLAVE
Best International Actress: Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Best International Actor: Ralph Fiennes, CONCLAVE
You have to love it when home team advantage helps some films and artists finally score some well-deserved recognition at the heart of the awards season. Critics and Oscar precursors did Small Things Like These so dirty. Cillian Murphy is even more impressive there than in the part that got him the Academy Award. And that script! Same thing could be said about Ronan and the brilliant Robbie Ryan. He can probably count on future Oscar honors for his Lanthimos collaborations, but his work with Andrea Arnold will always be closer to my heart.
What do you make of this chaotic season? Are you into the mayhem or would you rather have a more traditional run to the Oscars?
ADG, Annie Awards, Anora, BAFTA, CDG, Conclave, Dorian Awards, GALECA, Oscars (24), Punditry, The Substance, WGA
Reader Comments (23)
THE BRUTALIST might be doing better in production design races if it showed us more than literally two architectural works by the main character in a movie about an actual architect. Lmao.
With my favorite movie out of the Oscars (Challengers) as well as no real stinker nominees-wise, I'm all about the chaos. I want anything, everything to happen. The Best Picture (and Director?) question is good to have at this late stage and thank goodness for that Mikey Madison surprise BAFTA win to keep that category interesting. I just wished the other acting categories had a bit more excitement. A Fiennes and/or Rossellini win at BAFTA would've been thrilling just for the shake up. I hope SAG zags but I don't think it will. The only potential drama there would be if Wicked or A Complete Unknown grabs the ensemble award.
Oh and finally, thanks GALECA for your flawless screenplay awards.
@ Ryan T.
If only the BAFTA had gone to Edward Norton...
(Culkin is this year's Da'Vine Joy Randolph, so it'll be fitting if she's the one to hand him the Oscar.)
I hope my worst fears won't come true and this is just an Austin Butler besting Brendan Fraser at Bafta but losing the Oscar,
Madison seemed a nice person but her performance is one I just could not handle,obnoxious,loud,sweary with no nuance,even the last scene gave me nothing.
Anora I disliked more than any other awards friendly film this year
I was always worried about Moore,like she stated she has never been seen as an awards magnet but a popcorn actress,this isn't like an Amy Adams or Carey Mulligan or Michelle Williams finally winning after being overdue.
This is an actress who has been very lucky this year,not too detract from her performance,she'd get my vote in a heartbeat but her history and the nature of the film stops me from feeling stronger about her win chances.
She has just became vulnerable,i'd be ok with a Torres win but none of the others bar Sofia and she has no chance anyway.
If people have already bought into her narrative then she wins otherwise look out for a Madsion win.
Ronan is fine in Blitz but ten times better than Oscar nominees Madison and Erivo.
I’m starting to think Anora could win Best Picture and nothing else just like it did at the Critics’ Choice Awards. I’m currently predicting it for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, but the latter two categories feel very shaky.
Still, the only way I’ll feel trepidation about predicting it for Best Picture is if Conclave wins Best Ensemble at SAG.
I would usually love such a changeable season, but honestly, I can't wait for it to be over.
BAFTA threw a few wrenches, but nothing I can get too worked up about. I'm more annoyed with the wrenches it didn't throw.
Anora would be a fantastic best picture/director Oscar winner, but I also don't need my parents to feel compelled to see it - so Conclave or Brutalist would be fine too.
Moore would be a fantastic best actress winner, but so would Madison or Torres, so I'm OK with pretending the category isn't sewn up.
But I wish Fiennes could get a little heat to challenge Brody, and that anyone could start building up steam to make supporting actress more intresting.
But most of all, WHY is Culkin still walking away with this? Not only is he the most blatant case of fraud since Tatum O'Neal, he's not that great! He's well cast, but he's not delivering anything at all surprising in A Real Pain.
I'm loving the chaos this season. I feel like my predictions will either be a sweep or an absolute zero.
And Diane Warren will never stop being hilarious to me. It's the same generic power ballad every year for a movie she definitely didn't even watch (and no one else did).
I'm surprised she didn't have a song for Alone Yet Not Alone!
The entire Emilia Perez hoopla has made me really want Zoe Saldana not to win. I'm hoping the voting period allows this to happen. But... I'd prefer her to win over Ariana Grande. I'm not rooting for any of these supporting actresses. I'd swap out all 5 for practically anyone else.
Have to think Madison has the edge now, though the enthusiasm for Anora was tempered at BAFTA too, so who the f knows?
I hope Mikey Madison rides that BAFTA to a Best Actress win at the Oscars. She gives easily the best performance in the category. I always appreciate how BAFTA rejects narratives.
Also the I'm Still Here campaign has become so incessant both by SPC and Brazilian fans that it will definitely be amusing if it goes home empty-handed on Oscar night.
I do love seasons that are split. I think it does a nice job of honoring multiple contenders, and also giving everyone a moment to shine.
I do think the race for BP is between The Brutalist, Conclave, and Anora. I still think that Conclave feels like consensus choice. And at a time when politics in America is seeing a rise in authoritarianism and hate that the academy obviously doesn't like, it's easy to see them embracing its sunnier message that critiques things as they are, but also offers a rosy solution about possibility. I do wonder if the non-British international members of the academy might splut their vote between the Brutalist and Anora, leading to a Conclave win?
The Emila Perez backlash is starting to feel like a bit much, and one of those things that critics like not just because they disagree with Gascon's comments, but because they didn't like the film. I don't see why Warren or something else should beat Camille and Ducol's El Mal. It's a fantastic song, fits beautifully in its film, and has a solid message.
I'm really happy for Madison, who gave a brillant performance and was rewarded and elevated with Bafta. I do think this blunts Demi's momentum, though she feels like a SAG certainty. I still think Torres is the unknown factor here. I'll admit that I love her performance, so that is coloring my view, but her film is obviously liked and she gives a timely performance. SAG will clarify, but it will be important for Demi to move beyond narrative in her speech to clinch the Oscar.
Meanwhile Wander to Wonder won the Annie for Best Short Subject and then the BAFTA for Best British Short. The last animated short film to win both an Annie and the BAFTA was The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, which won the Oscar. While the competition is different, I think it does establish Wander to Wonder as the film to beat in Best Animated Short.
Oddity fans, we won.
Anyway, I'm more convinced than I was that The Substance wins Makeup and Hairstyling, but I still think the third act is too gross-out/gore-forward for the average Oscar voter. I'm keeping Wicked on my scorecard as it's more accessible than the violence of The Substance.
Trust me, I'd love a The Substance sweep. I know it's not going to happen. I'll be happy if they edge out one victory. I'm not picky.
I have no way of proving this, but I suspect these "narratives" that the Hollywood press like to report on so breathlessly actually hurt the actors involved. It's as if voting bodies take offense that they're being told who to vote for. I really think this hurt Glenn Close a few years back (coupled with an incredibly strong performance from Colman). Same seems to be happening here with Demi Moore. It's so often mischaracterized as an "overdue" or "comeback" narrative, when the truth of the matter is it should be a "holy shit she can actually act!" narrative.
I think Madison’s win shows the strength of Anora and BAFTA gave it a big prize while keeping Euro / Brit with Conclave and Brutalist. I’m not convinced Madison will win Oscar. I think Anora is strong for picture and Moore can still win actress.
Wicked is winning SAG Ensemble - big budget and diversity of casting similar to Black Panther and Hidden Figures wins. And that Bailey nod.
I would like Chalamet to win SAG to break it up and A Complete Unknown is a much bigger SAG player than The Brutalist so why not.
I love A Real Pain but was its screenplay win a Euro thing ? I think if Anora wins picture, it would have to win screenplay.
Madison's win at BAFTA is significant since they obviously do not care for Anora but still gave her the win. Her performance is my favorite among the nominees and I hope she will win the Oscar since Anora proves to be strong with the guilds.
I think Demi can still win SAG since that is the award body that loves narrative and big stars. However, Qualley missing from SAG lineup might indicate the Substance is not that strong and Anora maxed its nominations there.
I also feel Demi's front runner status is not real. She won the Globe which is not industry award and Critics Choice (lol). Once the industry weighed in, The Substance was missing noms here and there.
Personally, I think Demi is just fine and it won't be a bad win but I much prefer Madison.
Drew I have to respectfully disagree,I found Madison totally one note apart from the ending and by then i'd given up on her and the film,that sequence where's she's screaming and smashing the house up was sooooooo tiresome.
Demi is probably losing but if she does i'd rather it be to Torres.
I have to disagree with whunk Close had lost six times previously and really did deserve it for that career capper performance,Demi has never ever been an Oscar calibre actress and I feel that hinders her rather than helps.
I feel that's why Lopez and Anderson recently and Love and Madonna in 1996 failed to be nominated,you have to earn it and though Demi is great and would be my pick has she earned it previously with the roles she took.
whunk -i'd agree with you about voters feeling annoyed because they're told to vote for something if history proved that they do resist these narratives. But year after year, we don't see the Oscars veering too far away what all the narratives and the precursors 'tell them' to vote for.
But we'll see! I would love it if voters were more unpredictable. They are... but only in below the line categories for the most part, since people don't train them endlessly on how to vote in those categories.
Everyone needs to chill.
I have watched people all season go back and forth on Demi. First it was "no way she can get nominated" then it was "omg she's the frontrunner to win." Now we're back to "she's probably gonna lose" just because she didn't win at BAFTA?
Y'all realize The Substance got into Best Picture AND Best Director, right? The Oscars responded very well to the movie.
Sure, she's a little shaky now that Madison won the BAFTA, don't get me wrong. But Demi has the narrative and is still the frontrunner. Narrative matters. Mikey Madison has zero narrative, no one even knows who she is. BAFTA throws curveballs like this all the time.
I personally was not a fan of Anora--my least favorite Sean Baker film--but I'm not upset at her win. I do kind of wish they went the homeland advantage and given it to Cynthia or MJB, but it's cute to give someone else a trophy this season.
However, while I do enjoy spreading the wealth, I hate that it comes at the expense of Demi, my favorite candidate, the person I'm rooting for and have been looking forward to seeing win.
Anyway, I definitely still think Demi is winning SAG. Again, she has the narrative here and the movie is loved overall. She'll nail her speech as she always does.
And she looked so sweet and happy for Mikey at BAFTA. Her warm presence only continues to propel her forward imo.
People are still trying to pull the gross/weird card but we have come way too far at this point for those points to still be valid. If that were really true, if The Substance was "too weird/gross for voters," it wouldn't have gotten as many nominations as it did.
I'm still banking on Demi getting her gold. She's easily my choice from the nominees. I love her silent film star turn.
I refuse to listen to these naysaying comments, lol. Have a little faith. Missing one award doesn't automatically take away the momentum. Just months ago, people said this movie getting nominated wasn't possible and look at it now.
Mr Ripley..haha.. We are totally opposite in opinion regarding Madison in Anora. I find her performance so live in; all the things that you found annoying; obnoxious, vulgar etc is precisely how good Madison is in portraying this character and I find her showing many shades and layers. Also, I found the ending of Anora is reminiscent to La La Land where the movie ends on a very strong note no matter how draggy the middle part is.
That being said, Demi can still win but as others said, narrative will not be enough as she will face somebody from what I predicted to be the best picture winner. For me, when there is a two way race, I default to the one with stronger picture. Also, there is the Torres factor who I don't think will win but since the Oscar is the only place where they all face each other, anything can happen.
Also, I understand that The Substance is a best picture nominee but I always feel that nomination is just like a Terrence Malick or Hamaguchi nominated pictures, there will always be passion to get it nominated but that percentage won't be able to make it cross the finish line.
That's just my hunch and I can be proven wrong on Oscar night!
Best Actress and Best Picture are feeling pretty win-win to me now.
I'd love to see Conclave or Anora win. I'd love to see Mikey or Demi win.
I haven't seen Torres or The Brutalist yet but those options feel right up my alley too.