Oscar Volleys: Best Picture could be more multicultural than ever before!

Friday

Nov282025

Friday, November 28, 2025 at 5:00PM

The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Eric Blume, Eurocheese and Nick Taylor to discuss the Best Picture race...

HAMNET, Chloé Zhao | © Focus Features

ERIC: Hi gentlemen, I'm looking forward to our three-way... to talk about the ten possible Best Picture nominees. We're just starting to get some clarity on early predictions, so we might as well add our own two cents regarding the big race. Do you both agree that the two absolute lockshere are One Battle After Another and Hamnet? It's fun that they are two very different films that generate very different feelings, OBAA being sort of the "head" movie and Hamnet being the "heart" movie? That's an oversimplification, of course, but I don't think it's untrue…

Eurocheese, do you have an alternate opinion on those two being the leaders?

EUROCHEESE: From the tea leaves we have so far, those would be the ones I'd lock in first - can't imagine either of them missing. I expect we'll be hearing about the differences between the pair all season long. Just below them, the smash box office mixed with critical acclaim of Sinners will keep it at the top of the pack. There's a world where it gets an ugly snub, but I'd be floored if it were in this category.

While I'm confident in my next few picks to get in, these are the three I'd name as absolute locks. Same for you, Nick?

NICK: I would absolutely call One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet the top three contenders for Best Picture for the reasons y'all have cited. Whatever twists of fate may come, I have a hard time imagining any of them falling out of contention at this point in the race.

SINNERS, Ryan Coogler | © Warner Bros.

From there, we have many films competing for similar slots. There is Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly, film festival hits about movie industry folks reckoning with how their artistic ambitions have limited their personal lives, made by writer/directors in Oscar's good graces. Can Frankenstein's lacquered daddy issues or Bugonia's home invaders match Sinners as wide-release genre plays with a lot of buzz behind them? The international films in the race don't have as much in common aside from not being spoken in English, and it feels like Oscar's broadened its horizons enough that The Secret Agent and It Was Just An Accident wouldn't be competing for the same slot. Will we see more than one international film in Oscar's top ten?

We have works from Denmark, Iran (by way of France), Brazil, Pandora, Oz - this could be quite the multicultural category.

Or what about big-budget, effects-driven sequels with lots of profit, trophies, and cultural cache to their names, like Avatar: Fire and Ash or Wicked: For Good? I literally just left a showing of Wicked with my husband, and while I would be shocked to see it get the same nomination haul as Part One did last year, I don't believe it's out of the Best Picture race. Can its box office overcome mixed reviews, or is For Good now a craft category event with actressy ambitions? Way of the Water got an almost obligatory BP slot to go with its three other nominations, and I would be shocked to see Fire and Ash do much better.

EUROCHEESE: Each of your combinations has one that I'd favor as more likely than the other. It might be silly of me to push them further down the list, but Wicked: For Good's lackluster reviews and Fire and Ash's lack of screenings give me pause before chalking either of them up as sure things. Still, if they both make it, we'll thankfully avoid the mind-numbing commentary on box office failing to align with Best Picture.

JAY KELLY, Noah Baumbach | © Netflix

I still can't tell where people land on Jay Kelly - on paper, it feels like a movie Hollywood would find relatable, but reactions remain mixed. Clooney has been sufficiently rewarded over the years, and Sandler might be an actor they resist, but both could still land nominations. Sentimental Value, on the other hand, will most likely get three or four acting nominations. There are rumblings that there might be backlash on some of the film's early praise, yet I expect to see it here. Of the "film industry" picks, I think Sentimental Value is the solid bet.

Doubling up on monster movies (since Sinners would count), general audiences seem to be backing Frankenstein, with Elordi on the rise as an acting contender and Del Toro feeling more likely by the day in Director. Bugonia is on the bubble for its performances, but this feels like one of Lanthimos's less unanimously lauded films. Sometimes, films along those lines sneak into the final slot - Del Toro's own Nightmare Alley would be a prime example.

And yet, I sense that there are more people who completely dislike Bugonia. With Frankenstein, I hear more often that there was disappointment, but even then, there is recognition of the film as the origin story for one of our most prominent directors. It's also likely to do well with the craft categories, maybe better than any other contender this year. It's not impossible Hollywood would skip both of these monstrosities, but, of the two, Frankenstein has the stronger case.

The foreign film landscape is so impressive this year - I could see as many as four of the top contenders making the Best Picture ten, but that is leaning too hard into their strong reviews. The Secret Agent is receiving widespread acclaim (I am an outlier there) with adoration for Wagner Moura's leading turn, and Palme winner It Was Just an Accident has only built on its laurels this season. Both films have memorable endings that will help them in the final vote. I'd give Accident the edge because Panahi's story has such resonance - this is someone who has truly sacrificed for his art, and I believe the Academy will jump at a chance to reward him across the board.

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT, Jafar Panahi | © Neon

All that said, I noticed with each pair, I locked in the film I personally favor. This immediately makes me question my logic. Eric, am I being too quick in naming Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, and It Was Just an Accident at 4, 5, and 6?

ERIC: I personally love the preferential ballot for Best Picture, because it's resulted in "passion films" being nominated far more commonly than in the past. And for the most part, we've had a lot of wonderful surprises over the years - smaller films, international films, and just plain riskier films than we had ever gotten previously. Because of the ten slots rather than five, there are multiple "little engine that could" movies that now get thrown into the race, which is nothing if not exciting.

We're on the same page about the top three. I've gone on record several times here that Sinners is a fine flick but absurdly overrated. Still, while I presume it's less universally well-loved than many think, I will also concede that the people who love it do it passionately. It's in for this category for sure.

Frankenstein and Sentimental Value will make in with little trouble. Again, because the people who love both films love them with a passion. I personally started watching Frankenstein as "Oscar homework" and found myself completely enveloped by it, a reaction I've heard from a lot of industry folk out here in LA. Yes, there are also those who hate it, find it ugly, lumbering, etc. Nevertheless, it produces fiery discourse for its advocates. Sentimental Value isn't as divisive, but it's one of the only films this year where I've heard the word "masterpiece" thrown around commonly by those who respond to it, and it's the only other contender besides Hamnet that transports people to tears. That counts for a lot in this race.

SENTIMENTAL VALUE, Joachim Trier | © Neon

Eurocheese, I do feel you're ranking It Was Just an Accident a little high, though I like your wishful thinking. It's a ravishing film, and it may squeak its way in here. However, it doesn't have the benefit of Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning, and of being a "political film" which people may or may not be in the mood for. Getting people to watch it will be the trick for Neon.

I have a hunch that Jay Kelly will catch on over the holidays. Everyone will be watching that one with their families. It's Clooney and Sandler, it's on Netflix, it will definitely get the eyeballs. After that, it's just a question of whether enough people like it. For now, it's in that 6-10 zone.

In the top 5, we also have Marty Supreme. Feels like another movie where people who love it are crazy in love, and Chalamet will help take it over the top. While I agree that the Wicked and Avatar sequels seem like uninspired renewals for nominations, they also feel like dependable defaults.

Nick, how do the slots 4-7 fill out for you? Per the above, I'm feeling some combo of Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and Marty Supreme. For 8-10, I'm thinking some combo of Train Dreams, Bugonia, and It Was Just an Accident. Like with Eurocheese, this may be wishful thinking on my part.

NICK: The preferential ballot and the massive increase in international voting members have really done a lot to broaden the Academy's tastes. It Was Just An Accident could be the recipient of this newfound goodwill - Panahi's narrative is unsurpassable, and the movie itself is incendiary and politically risky. It's not a one-to-one situation with I'm Still Here, but I think it's got similar appeal as a crowdpleaser with real anger towards ongoing injustices in their home countries. Or is that stolen valor from the actual Brazilian film in contention?

FRANKENSTEIN, Guillermo del Toro | © Netflix

As someone who walked into Frankenstein hoping for a good time and leaving with the impression of an ugly, lumbering chore, I'm rooting hard against it in this race but still putting it in the bottom half of my predicted ten. Nightmare Alley got into Best Picture with a lot of guild support and a couple of craft nominations to support it. Frankenstein could take a similar path without much trouble, even with Dan Laustsen's cinematography gunking up everyone else's good work. I'd be thrilled to see it tossed aside. Frankie and Wicked should be cast out of here for crimes against good cinematography (and Sinners, though I like it overall much more than you do, Eric).

I don't know why I'm so suspicious of Marty Supreme's electrified praise. Still, I think its current standing as a high-profile star vehicle and the most traditional biopic in contention should give it an edge. Or at least, it's more conventional than The Testament of Ann Lee, and as a rule of thumb, it's still easier for a buzzy Best Actor vehicle to muscle into the BP race than a Best Actress one. If any A24 officials reading this think they can persuade me otherwise with a screener, feel free to send one my way.

So, to answer your question, Mona Fastvold's musical biopic could be a sneaky contender. I'm also very curious about Mary Bronstein's If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, which has a Berlin prize and a lot of critical oomph behind it. Now that's a fucking intense experience, pushing its indie cinema formalism and its fearless Rose Byrne performance to claustrophobic, skin-crawling extremes. Do we think it's got a shot?

EUROCHEESE: If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You is one of my least favorite films this year, and I hear enough comments around Rose Byrne's campaign ("love her work here - hated the movie") to think it will be too divisive to make the ten. I wasn't an Ann Lee fan either, but given the high level of craft, I wouldn't count it out completely. I know all five Actress nominees matched Best Picture last year, though that's undoubtedly the least likely acting category to repeat that feat this season. Actor will get closer when Marty Supreme scores its Best Picture nod - my Top 7 matches Eric's if Accident swaps out Jay Kelly.

MARTY SUPREME, Josh Safdie | © A24

Sorry to be boring. At least one of the year's late-breaking blockbuster sequels will show up, and it could end up being both of them. As we write this, Wicked: For Good has just begun its ascent that could make it the biggest box-office hit of 2025 in less than two months. The reaction after initial reviews came out was to pull it from the list, but I'm not so sure. Avatar will be the Christmas spectacle, and though my fingers are crossed for Marty Supreme to hit high box-office numbers, unless Fire and Ash is a dip in quality from the last chapter, it could easily show.

Let's not only talk about behemoths, though. While many believe Train Dreams is showing late signs of strength, it will need heavy support to make the cut in Best Picture. I would LOVE to see No Other Choice on the list, but the release date should have been pushed earlier to help rally support. Park Chan-wook's brilliant Decision to Leave didn't even land in the International Film category, and, outside of Parasite, Korean films struggle at the Oscars. This is one of my favorite films of the year, and if it were more widely seen, its relevant modern premise (perfectly hitting the zeitgeist of top workplace concerns) would drive conversation. The momentum needs to start now, though, and I'm unfortunately not seeing it.

This leads me back to Netflix, where I'm back and forth on the little engine that could of Train Dreams or the Hollywood-skewed Jay Kelly for my final slot. Scoring three films would be a lot for them. Is there a final slot contender that hasn't been given its due? Any I'm Still Here-style surprises waiting in the wings?

ERIC: Nick, circling back, The Testament of Ann Lee could pick up steam to steal that last slot or two, if it catches on and enough people watch it from the word-of-mouth on Amanda Seyfried. But I don't think If I Had Legs I'd Kick You has any shot at getting into the Best Picture race. I believe most people will find it incredibly tedious, to be honest.

TRAIN DREAMS, Clint Bentley | © Netflix

And Eurocheese, Train Dreams absolutely stands a great chance of getting in, as this year's "late discovery" movie that has a real passion vote behind it. I feel like most years, moviegoers think that the awards movies are spoonfed to them in advance, and there's an excitement about the idea of "finding" the smaller movie that you can champion without anyone having told you to do so. There's so much lovely about that film, and I see a possibility where it makes it in for Picture, Joel Edgerton's performance in Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography.

At this point, we've discussed most of the strongest possibilities on the table, no? A House of Dynamite has as many detractors on the film's three-peat structure as it does fans, and even the fans won't rank it high on their passion list. Nuremberg turned out to be a real turd - a genuinely bad film, like a TV-movie from the 80s - and Weapons isn't a strong enough commercial movie to overcome Wicked and Avatar.

Shall we wrap up with our predictions? For the moment, I'm going to go this way, in order:

One Battle After Another (lock)
Hamnet (lock)
Sinners (lock)
Sentimental Value (highly likely)
Frankenstein (highly likely)
Marty Supreme (highly likely)
Jay Kelly (probable)
Train Dreams (possible)
It Was Just an Accident (possible)
Bugonia (possible)

But wow, those last two-thirds(!) feel wobbly, and I know I'm an idiot to count out the blockbusters.

NICK: Train Dreams is catching on in a big way, and I'd like to see if Cliff Bentley and Greg Kwedar could get a little more traction after Sing Sing was so poorly handled by A24 last year. They deserve the love!

NO OTHER CHOICE, Park Chan-wook | © Neon

Decision to Leave missing out of a deathly dull International Film lineup in 2022 makes me hesitant to predict No Other Choice as a contender. Oddly, some of the negative reviews have given me a little more hope - it's too broad, it's not as formidable as Park's previous film. Jacques Audiard proved with Emilia Peréz that an international critical darling can make it big with the Academy if they really lower their own imposing standards.

But as far as my true-blue predictions, right now I'd go with:

One Battle After Another (locked)
Sinners (locked)
Hamnet (locked)
Marty Supreme (very likely)
Sentimental Value (very likely)
It Was Just An Accident (I want to believe)
The Secret Agent (Brazilian cinephiles grow stronger every day)
Train Dreams (possible)
Avatar: Fire and Ash (possible)
Jay Kelly (possible)

Alts: Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, No Other Choice, The Testament of Ann Lee

I would say my bottom half feels squishier than my top, and while I didn't mean that as a double entendre, I'll let it stand as one.

Still, before we go, are there any films we want to shout out as deserving of love? I'm really psyched by Cannes prizewinners Grand Tour and Sound of Falling, Albert Serra's bullfighting doc Afternoons of Solitude, the experimental animal biopic Pepe, Rungano Nyoni's sorely underseen and immaculately acted On Becoming a Guinea Fowl, and Lynne Ramsay's Die My Love. I also loved Roofman, which I wasn't expecting at all, and at the very least, I hope it shows well at the Globes.

This feels like a really great year for film, which is always true, no matter what anyone says. Still, I really treasure the favorites I've listed above, and having a surefire banger as our likeliest Best Picture winner is more than enough to brighten my mood.

I'd love to hear what your favorites are, and if this is my last sendoff, let me thank you both for being such engaging conversation partners. I'm already looking forward to doing more of these once awards season has kicked into high gear.

EUROCHEESE: Ah, I was planning on sneaking back to The Secret Agent, but Nick, you beat me to it! In such a strong year for international film, I could see enough momentum for three of them to get in here. My predictions:

One Battle After Another (locked)
Hamnet (locked)
Sinners (locked)
Sentimental Value (very likely)
Frankenstein (very likely)
Marty Supreme (very likely)
It Was Just an Accident (likely)
Wicked: For Good (still feels likely)
Avatar: Fire and Ash (probable)
The Secret Agent (my guess on the bubble champion)

Jay Kelly or Train Dreams wouldn't surprise me, and I'd be thrilled if No Other Choice can manage it.

As a die-hard mystery fan, Black Bag is still hovering near my top films of the year - Soderbergh on his A game with an incredible cast. I'm so excited to see Wake Up Dead Man later this week. I agree with Nick on Sound of Falling, my favorite film at AFI Fest and a unique cinematic experience. Blue Moon was delightful, highlighting one of Ethan Hawke's best performances to date. Alexander Skarsgård was aces in Pillion, and Is This Thing On? was charming with great performances from its leads (especially Laura Dern). I also hope Sorry Baby, Nouvelle Vague, and The Phoenician Scheme can find pockets of love before the season ends. Eric, what would your callouts be?

ERIC: Love a final window to shout out an unmentioned favorite.

Linklater's Nouvelle Vague was absolutely divine, virtually flawless in execution for what it sets out to do. He knows precisely how to homage the French New Wave style, and when to homage, and has the beautiful instinct to never overuse, exploit or misuse it. Linklater makes the period look and feel effortless, and it fully reads like a French movie. It's a very contained thing (as is his even smaller but lovely Blue Moon this year), but for the bonbon it is, it's delicious.

On the imperfect but equally fascinating end, Lynne Ramsey was up to something feral and wonderfully weird in Die My Love, and I wish we had more movies like this - people really pulling their balls out!

Thank you so much for the conversation, boys. Look forward to circling back later in the season.

Other Oscar Volleys:

Reader Comments (2)

Eric, I'm a bit surprised you don't think of IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT as a political film. If a narrative about former victims and political prisoners of the regime pondering (and maybe carrying out) their revenge against a state official who tortured them isn't political, I don't know what is. Especially since the regime being criticized is very much still in power.

Also, you'll be glad to know that, among fellow critics and awards voters, NOUVELLE VAGUE has been coming up in conversation a lot. I could hardly dislike the film more than I already do, but everyone else seems as charmed as you are. Wouldn't be surprised if it kept popping up during the season.

Eurocheese, I think you are overstating the lack of screenings for AVATAR a bit too much. It's having screenings worldwide during the first two days of December, and the social media embargo drops quite soon after, two weeks before it hits cinemas. To me, that speaks of confidence rather than tentativeness on the studio's part.

Nick, I'm sad to say so, but I agree with Eric and Eurocheese that IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU won't score beyond Best Actress. Maybe some Original Screenplay traction, but that feels like an awfully big "maybe."

Also, I'm currently binging through screeners before turning in my Golden Globe ballot, and seeing stuff like those shoutouts for undersung films from you guys is the exact sort of thing I'm craving. Thank you!

November 28, 2025 |

Cláudio Alves

Claudio, I didn't phrase my comment on Avatar clearly - since I haven't heard from people who have seen it in screenings, I couldn't speak to reactions at this point, which was my hesitance in placing it very high. I actually wouldn't mind both blockbusters falling out to make room for other movies, but it felt too much like hopedicting to me (and I do seem to like Wicked: For Good more than a lot of people, even though I was only mildly positive on it).

November 28, 2025 |

eurocheese