Oscar Volley: Best Supporting Actress has a lot of wiggle room
Friday, November 14, 2025 at 5:30PM The Oscar Volleys are back! Today, Cláudio Alves and Nathaniel Rogers discuss Best Supporting Actress...
Teyana Taylor is Nathaniel's frontrunner for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
CLÁUDIO: It's that time of the year again, the beginning of the awards season proper, and all the punditry that comes with it. So, let's talk predictions. After all, it can't be reviews and festival coverage at The Film Experience all of the time. Because we're actressexuals at heart and lovers of actressing at the edges, it seems appropriate that the first of these volleys would be about Best Supporting Actress.
And let me tell you, having just returned from the London premiere of Wicked: For Good, still reeling from Diane Ladd's death, two thoughts are at the forefront of my mind. Ariana Grande is going to be a force to reckon with this season, as she sinks her teeth into an expanded and, in some ways, deepened version of Glinda. Nevertheless, it's hard to consider her case without thinking about what the late great Ladd was so adamant about fighting - CATEGORY FRAUD…
Ariana Grande-Butera in WICKED: FOR GOOD | © Universal Pictures
In John M. Chu's version of Wicked, what was already a pretty undisputable co-lead part on stage has become more evidently so. In the second movie, this is so flagrant that it'd be hard to argue against someone asserting that Glinda is more crucial to For Good's structure than her green best friend. The shambolic second act has been retrofitted into Glinda's redemption in tandem with Elphaba's tragedy, not only giving her a new song but also pushing her into numbers she was not originally part of. Grande rewards such generosity with a tremendous performance, but she and the equally impressive Cynthia Erivo should be competing in the same race.
Alas, you have neither woman in your predicted top five, so I may be overstating their place in the season. Still, I can't help but think that, after last year's debacle, we're in for an even more egregious case of a musical leading lady taking home the Best Supporting Actress prize.
NATHANIEL: While I lost the Category Fraud War long, long ago - one might even say before the war began, with how rapidly anyone with any real power to stop it, and many who actually agreed with me decided it was silly to care so much - I can at least take comfort in being on the right side of history. The losing side of history, but still! At least the Ghosts of Supporting Actresses Who Never Got Their Due Thanks to PR Games and Greedy Stars will nod in gratitude when I join them in the afterlife!
Anyway, I'm excited to see what Ariana Grande can do with an expansion of what was already a gigantic role! It was almost a full year ago when there was a rumor that the campaigns might switch for the second film (Erivo supporting, Grande lead). At the time, I thought that felt far-fetched, but now that I'm talking to someone who has actually just seen the film, perhaps that rumor stemmed from someone in the know understanding the changes they would be making in the screen adaptation?
As for my prediction that they'll both be left out, I am of two minds… or rather two brains in the mythic sense of "logical/factual" vs. "creative/emotional". The analytical part of my brain knows that getting a second Oscar nomination for playing the same character again is rare (it's only happened six times) and that voters may well feel they've already honored both Erivo & Grande for their work. The more emotional part of my brain thinks I'm deep in delusion if I'm assuming voters won't get real lazy and just include them because they did last year and still very much like what they're doing in this musical. Category Fraud is no longer scary (too normalized for that), but I do feel real fear when I imagine the Oscars morphing into the Emmys.
One of the reasons I became obsessed with the Oscars in the first place was that it was an annual ritual that never felt routine since it was new characters, new stories, and new performances to choose from each and every time.
Amy Madigan in WEAPONS | © Warner Bros.
I am also actively rooting against Ariana Grande (who I love in the role, don't get me wrong) for the reason I stand against Category Fraud in the first place. It is NOT without consequence. Five is a finite number. If Grande squeezes a supporting performance out, I really hope it's not Amy Madigan, who is so tremendously good in Weapons and who, like Ariana, is playing a character so memorable that people dressed up as them for Halloween. But Madigan doesn't have the advantages of 1) a lead role, 2) a genre that voters take no issue with, and 3) any coattails as she is her movies only real chance at an Oscar nomination. Madigan has certainly been getting her flowers in terms of audience and critical reaction, but do you think Oscar voters will give her the time of day when they can just pick five women (some of them leads) from Best Picture nominees instead?
CLÁUDIO: As I've stated many times in the six years I've been writing for The Film Experience, my predictions tend to come with a generous sprinkling of pessimism. In other words, I could easily see Madigan, who is indeed phenomenal in Weapons, be squeezed out of the race by a battalion of leads frauding their way into nominations. And yet, this feels different from last year's season in that regard. Because there aren't that many leads in Best Supporting Actress.
Chase Infiniti is campaigning in the right category, so, unless the Academy treats her like they did Lakeith Stanfield, she's not crashing this party. The same can be said about Laura Dern, who is better than she's been in years in Is This Thing On?, yet remains faithful to her mother's mission in combating the trend of leading ladies taking up space that should be reserved for character actresses and the like. Rebecca Ferguson is the closest to the fraud accusations alongside Grande, even if the ensemble and triptych structure of A House of Dynamite makes her case less egregious. Jennifer Lopez's chances for Kiss of the Spider Woman seemed to plummet the minute that musical flopped at the box office, though she might still have a comeback moment later in the season. And then there's Rebecca Hall, who is being campaigned as a supporting actress in Peter Hujar's Day, a film I doubt Oscar voters will even bother watching.
Odessa A'zion in MARTY SUPREME | © A24
That being said, perhaps Odessa A'zion's role is much bigger than I initially imagined. Marty Supreme is one of the last contenders I haven't seen, but your prediction of her over Gwyneth Paltrow and Fran Drescher made me suddenly stand up and pay attention. She could be this year's Barbaro.
NATHANIEL: I have not yet seen Marty Supreme, but reviews are singling her out, and it feels like the type of late-breaking film that will end up nominated everywhere.
Whenever anyone calls a film year "weak" or "thin" in terms of Actressing I tend to get pissed off - it generally means that they didn't watch enough movies OR tha the great performances weren't in the 'type' of movies that people take seriously for awards. But it does feel like one of those years. The performances that I've been excited by in supporting actress, Amy Madigan aside, don't feel like they have a prayer in hell.
If they do default to Best Picture only, as the Academy's acting branch can sometimes do, they could do a lot worse than just throwing two nods, One Battle After Another's way with Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall, both striking in very different ways. That said, I do think the Academy pulling a Lakeith Stanfield for Chase Infinitii is not remotely implausible.
Who are some longshots you're excited about?
Regina Hall and Chase Infiniti in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
CLÁUDIO: You won't find me complaining about Taylor and Hall getting in, if indeed they do. The former is especially remarkable in a tricky part that'll have to contend with a whole barrage of misogynoir on her way to a nomination, seeing as Perfidia Beverly Hills - perfect character name, by the way - has divided audiences since One Battle After Another first premiered. And we all know how awards voters have issues with complicated and/or unlikable Black women on screen. Just ask Marianne Jean-Baptiste. On the other hand, Hall is such a reactive force in the film, illuminating worlds of meaning with what appears to be minimal effort, that I fear she might be taken for granted.
But you asked about longshots and, though I fear for their ultimate chances, neither Hall nor Taylor is that distant from the lineup. Instead, let me sing the praises of Emily Watson, who does some excellent things with her small role in Hamnet, conveying much of what the book suggests about William Shakespeare's mother without the benefit of the original text's shifting POVs and generous interest in every person orbiting around Agnes. And then there's Kirsten Dunst, so lovely, lived-in, complex, and ultimately heartbreaking in a movie that seems to have fallen off the map, predictions-wise. Whenever she's on screen, I believe in the brilliant Roofman so many have told me about, rather than the fine film that disappointed me beyond its two primary star turns. Some applause for Nina Hoss in Hedda is in order, too. I don't know about you, but I love a messy, drunk diva having a nervous breakdown.
NATHANIEL: I'm a Dunst stan, so any praise for her in Roofman thrills me. She's that good in the film. I like drunk diva-ing breakdowns as much as you, but on the flip side, actors, like Dunst and Hall, who can convey lots of extradiegetic information with a simple look or line reading ... that can feel miraculous, too!
Kirsten Dunst in ROOFMAN | © Paramount Pictures
One of my favourite moments in Roofman is that wordless sequence where Jeffrey Manchester starts tearing up during a choir performance, and Kiki, while singing, is simultaneously revealing her whole relationship with the church choir and her complicated feelings about her new boyfriend. She barely needs the camera to scoot in closer (though it does if I recall) to do that. Her scene in the car when Jeffrey is driving recklessly with her children in the backseat is also top-notch, dialogue-free acting. Honestly, she's one of our best screen actresses, but award bodies never seem all that invested. Does she make it look too easy? Is it just that her films are rarely Best Picture players?
CLÁUDIO: Everything you wrote about Dunst is as beautiful as it is spot-on. What a remarkable performance and how smart of Ciaranfrance to predicate the film's final stretch on her. Not just the romantic relationship, but her, in particular, that face reflecting a storm of feelings and variations as she draws her man to the police and later visits him in prison. Brilliant stuff.
What are some other long shots you hope can gain traction this season? Or, better yet, what are some performances that are entirely out of the realm of possibility that you wish could get attention? I'm all in for Elizabeth Chisela in On Becoming a Guinea Fowl and Médina Diarra in Sisterhood, but it doesn't seem like their distributors are even submitting them for awards.
NATHANIEL: Longshots I loved: Youn Yuh-jung in The Wedding Banquet - steals the whole film. Son Ye-Jin in No Other Choice - competing as lead in South Korean awards (I can see why, but it's a borderline performance for me, so I'm good with either categorization). I also think that Olivia Colman is unimprovably funny in Paddington in Peru - maybe it's not Hugh Grant in Paddington 2 genius, but not far off either.
Other supporting players I liked: Zoe Winters (Materialists); Catherine Front (Misericordia); Ane Marie Jacobsen & Ane Dahl Torp (Dreams), who are so good I kind of wish the movie were less about their granddaughter/daughter and more about their reactions to her; and the still-rising Margaret Qualley who is better in Honey Don't (leading role) but still ultra watchable in Blue Moon. Finally, these roles are way too small for attention, but I just ate Susan Park all the way up as a boss with real boundaries in Twinless, and I thought Deanie Ip was exciting as "Grandma" in Ballad of a Small Player (though the movie didn't do it for me and I was hoping to be more excited by Tilda Swinton.)
I still have a lot to see, but screeners are arriving fast and furious, and I'm delighted to discover more actressing around the edges.
CLÁUDIO: Fantastic, love all your shout-outs. However, we might want to do some more predicting instead of just exulting our favorites. I think I made it pretty clear I feel Grande is getting in and, despite some fears, I'd say the same about Taylor. Beyond those two, I'm less sure.
Glenn Close in WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY | © Netflix
Madigan is against so much anti-horror bias from the Academy that I fear she might not make it, especially since Weapons doesn't have the same level of competitiveness in other categories that The Substance benefited from last year. I'm also worried that voters will only have space for one veteran actress on their ballots, and Close could take that spot all to herself. She's a hoot and a half in the first act of Wake Up Dead Man and then gets to deliver all the grande dame dramatics one can imagine for the mystery's denouement. It's a juicy showcase part, complete with an Oscar-clip-ready scene and a fantastic overdue narrative. A lot will depend on Netflix's campaigning, of course.
I'm confident about Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas's chances, however, and think you're underestimating Elle Fanning in the same film. The latter is my choice for Sentimental Value's best-in-show, in a tricky part that will mostly have to contend with accusations of slighthness or unseriousness when compared directly with her costars. And yet, there's such a generosity in her framing, such dimension in what she brings to Trier's latest, that I feel NEON can pull it off.
So, in descending confidence, I'm going with Grande, Taylor, Close, Lileaas, and Fanning. Madigan and A'Zion are the closest alternates for me, followed closely by Regina Hall, with Mosaku and Hoss a little further behind. Does that make sense to you, or am I delusional?
NATHANIEL: That makes sense to me, too, even though it's different than my predictions (see chart). Honestly, the fun part about this time in November is how much wiggle room there still is. May the early precursors be all over the place, both to spread the wealth (there are always more than five worthy options) and to keep the drama of awards season alive!
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning in SENTIMENTAL VALUE | © NEON
Check out all the updated Oscar charts for more predictions. And share who you think will make it into the Best Supporting Actress quintet.
Reader Comments (20)
Nina Hoss is above and beyond everyone else!!!
The only thing going against Taylor's nom (and win) is that she's incredibly sexual and they don't usually like that.
I haven’t seen everything, but from what I have seen so far I’d choose:
- Naomi Ackie in “Mickey 17”
- Glenn Close in “Wake Up Dead Man”
- Zoey Deutch in “ Nouvelle Vague”
- Nina Hoss in “Hedda”
- Youn Yuh-jung in “The Wedding Banquet”
I’m also looking forward to Sigourney Weaver’s supporting turn in “Dust Bunny” where she plays the handler (?) to hitman Mads Mikkleson. Mads is hired by a little girl to kill the monster that lives under her bed. Sigourney apparently has stiletto shoes that also function as guns.
I have three early favorites
Regina Hall in One Battle After Another
Carol Kane in Caught Stealing
Zoe Waters in The Materialists
Oh, by the way, I'm Team Madigan in a way that is almost embarrassing.
I have Grande at #1 placement in my predictions. That this moment, I don't think anyone has really come forward to challenge her (last year Saldana was the frontrunner the entire time and Grande was only seen as competition late in the game- for a good chunk of last year many thought her casting in Wicked was a joke) However, I can believe that Taylor gets a bunch of attention for being in the best picture obvious frontrunner or if Madigan wins critics prizes and uses the narrative that its been 40 years!! since her last nomination.
PS- I also think Weapons has a real chance at screenplay and possibly score.
PPS- Unfortunately I don't think Close is going to get in. No one from this franchise has ever gotten a nomination- even when they got precursor attention (Craig, de Armas, Norton, Monae, nor Hudson) Will they really nominate her for a 9th time for a throwaway nod she has no chance of winning?
McGill & Finbar McBride -- Thank you for reminding me I have to check out CAUGHT STEALING and DUST BUNNY.
TomG -- While I understand your argument about Close, I don't think she had any chance of winning for HILLBILLY ELEGY, yet she was still nominated. And maybe, if Netflix plays its cards right, she might have a chance this time. Moreover, the franchise thing is a bit of a moot point when Angela Bassett got an Oscar nomination 30 films into a franchise that had, until then, received zilch from the actor's branch. At least, that's how I see it right now. Ask me again further in the season, and I might come around to agreeing with you.
Gents, loved hearing your take on this category.
I have a question for you and the readers: while I think the Wicked movie was a bit meh, I did think Ariana Grande was the MVP hands-down and I too love her in the role. But do we feel an Oscar is just a tad too much? Don't the wins for Jennifer Hudson and Ariana DeBose feel like minor mistakes in retrospect? Is it just me? I have yet to see the new chapter of Wicked.
How do we get Kirsten Dunst into this race properly?
And I'm pulling for both of the Sentimental Value actresses to get in. I was gobsmacked by what each lent to the picture.
@ Cláudio & Finbar
There are reasons to see Caught Stealing, but Carol Kane is a minor one, sadly. She's fun, but barely there.
@Frank Zappa - Kane was really the one reason I wanted to see that movie, too bad to hear she's in it so little. She's such an underrated rated treasure. Hester Street is one of my all-time favourite nominated performances. She has always deserved more awards attention.
@davidandwaffles - I couldn't agree more about Kane - such a great character actress. She's fantastic in Between the Temples and deserved more awards attention for this one.
Kvetch, Kvetch, Kvetch.
Why can't movie fans simply enjoy good work? "She's really a lead and doesn't deserve consideration" or "She's fun but barely there."
I saw Caught Stealing weeks ago. I am still thinking about Kane and smiling. For me, a memorable performance that resonates deserves recognition. That's what awards are.
I'm just happy if I get five great performances that are worth watching!
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but everyone is predicting Wicked like it’s the next coming of Lord of the Rings or Dune — that we need to reward the culmination of this amazing cinematic effort and it’s just.. not that. At all. Some have Ariana Grande as the frontrunner! Ridiculous
Wae Mest -- I saw HEDDA last night and holy hell. If I'd seen it before this conversation I would have sung Nina Hoss' praises.
I laughed out loud at the Mia Goth fun quote,that film wouldn't know fun it a truck hit it.
I am so unethused about this years crop of films.
Madigan is the only one i've seen and she totally deserves it and could be winning,they've warmed a lot to horror/thrillers in the last few years.
Grande seems to me like a repeater judging from internet Oscar sites who have her in the N0umber 1 position,only this one isn't going there,she by rights should have won it last year cos Joan Chen wasn't there.
Taylor is to me a lock,if any lady from that film gets in it has to be and she should have had a Best Actress nomination 2 years ago.
Hall is only in as a coatail but she's a really strong possibility
Paltrow i'm still hoping for but maybe it is the supportive girlfriend role that gets in,Yawns!
Close next time I want her nominated is when she is undeniable for a win and there's little time left for her to do it,I don't see her being nominated if she'd not winning the thing.
Ferguson unless critics boost her probably not.
Mosaku unlikely unfortunately but she's the best thing along with O'Connell about that films acting.
They snubbed Qualley last year for a buzzier turn in an across the board nominated film.
Lilleas not getting in over Fanning.
Watson seems like a Bafta pick but if they love the film watch out
Blunt early in the year I thought this was Blunts Oscar win but that has faded but could make a roaring comeback with the Globes who LOVE her..
Hoss,Lopez,Curtis,Spacek,Deuch,Dunst very doubtful.
Felicity Jones could return if the film is what used to be known as the little film that could but Joel has to get in Lead for her to do it.
Claudio here's a quote about Close from this very website by Nathaniel about Close in Hillbilly Elegy.
We still think Glenn Close is going to win in the end but with 9 arguably viable contenders for 5 slots, nomination morning is going to sting for a few actresses and their fans. And then the race for the win begins.
Mr Ripley79 -- Good pull, and I stand corrected.
I’m completely with you about Kane — she’s an outstanding character actress. Her performance in Between the Temples is phenomenal, and she definitely deserved far more awards recognition for it. ragdoll archers
Having now seen Wicked: For Good, Ariana is great - although not as revelatory as she was in the first movie - but she’s so obviously a lead, it would be shambolic and beyond egregious to put her in supporting. One of the worst cases of category fraud ever!
My current prediction:
Grande (Lock, unless she swiches category & goes Lead, lol)
Taylor
Fanning
Lilleaas
A'zion
I'd luv to see Hoss get nom!! luv her ever since Phoenix (2015)...
A make-up nom for Qualley for Blue Moon wld be nice too but she's an even longer shot.
The horror genre biases is probably too hard to overcome for Madigan, unless Weapons break into top categories like The Substance. Even then, Qualley was snubbed just last yr.