Oscar Volleys: Best Actress or Jessie Buckley vs. the World

The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Nathaniel Rogers, Cláudio Alves and Eric Blume to discuss the Best Actress race...

Nathaniel's last Best Actress predictions, from November 11.

NATHANIEL: Hello, my fellow lovers of all things actressing! I have been tearing through screeners and at the movie theater a lot this past week  (missing festivals is deadly when it comes to keeping up). So, I want to start this Best Actress volley by saying that I'm just now coming back down to earth after watching two movies, nearly back-to-back, that are about "performance," even when they're not directly about Acting. They were Sentimental Value (in a packed theater) and Hedda (at home, streaming). Renate Reinsve and Tessa Thompson are both gifted with the kind of "bring everything you got" roles that I'm sure a lot of actors would kill for…

Renate has more room to maneuver because she doesn't have to contend with centuries of other interpretations, which is what Tessa is up against. That's one of the reasons Reinsve has a much better shot at an Oscar nomination: people still remember how revelatory she was in The Worst Person in the World, and Sentimental Value is well regarded as a whole, not just the "The Renate Show". But I wanted to mention them up front because, while they're very different actors, both made their characters feel absolutely dangerous in a way that I rarely feel when I'm watching movies. I worried for everyone in their physical and emotional orbit, and also for them. Immersive star turns is what I'm saying.

Listen, I know the roles are actually quite different, but my point is this: God, I love actresses!

CLÁUDIO: Hear! Hear! Thank heaven for actresses and all they do to make our lives brighter, our films richer, our drama juicier, and much more interesting than they would be if only men took to performing. The true tragedy of Hamnet is that, genderqueerness aside, the Elizabethans never got to see any actress sink her teeth into Shakespeare's iconic roles. Now, isn't that enough to bring a tear to your eye?

Renate Reinsve in SENTIMENTAL VALUE | © Neon

I'm getting ahead of myself. You mentioned Reinsve in Sentimental Value and Thompson in Hedda, two performances well worth discussing, even though I don't feel much passion for the former. As far as I'm concerned, she's the weakest link in that film's quartet, a handful of great moments notwithstanding. But because I want to be positive, let me highlight those peaks. First, the pre-show freakout, a spectacle in itself that might be more worth watching than whatever Nora could accomplish on stage. And then, there's that final beat, exchanging an ambiguous look with Stellan Skarsgård, complicating the denouement through a noncommital to catharsis.

If you read my review, you'll know I'm more than happy to extol Thompson's triumphs in DaCosta's Hedda. You hit the nail on the head when describing the sense of danger she brings to the proceedings, making us feel that anything can happen, even though the shape of her story has been set in stone for over a century. That's the kind of movie magic only a great performer can accomplish. Looking back, it's curious that the two Black women most prominent in this year's Best Actress race are tackling roles originated on stage by white thespians, their very casting a cause for newfound textual tensions and transformation. Currently, you have Thompson above Erivo, Nathaniel, but I suspect that AMPAS will go back to Elphaba before nominating another Hedda Gabler. What do you think, Eric?

ERIC: First of all, I just want to express my shock and glee that the first two actresses we're discussing for Oscar nominations in 2025 revolve around Henrik Ibsen. Not on my Bingo card, but let's Bingo the fuck out of that fact! 

Personally, I rank Renate Reinsve higher than Tessa Thompson, and with Sentimental Value likely doing well over several categories, the Norwegian thespian's chances of scoring a nomination are higher as well. I don't throw around "incandescent" very often, but that's the word that describes Reinsve in this film, and I marveled at her resistance to push in scene after scene. It's a performance so relaxed, so lived in, so specific, and so generous to every actor around her. I was deeply moved by Reinsve throughout.

Tessa Thompson in HEDDA | © Amazon MGM Studios

And I can only agree with both of your assessments of Thompson, who is exemplary as an Ibsen heroine yet takes the film into another realm with a sexuality you don't usually see in this kind of adaptation. She's terrific, and it would be incredibly exciting to see her get a nomination. But I know a lot of people are just skipping the film and never seeing it. I've also talked to more than a few who referred to it as a "slog" for what that's worth. It is a very specific bullseye that DaCosta and Thompson are aiming for. 

I've been pretty vocal on this site about my feelings on Cynthia Erivo's acting, which I'll admit has developed since her very bad performance in Harriet. I saw her recently in the live production of Jesus Christ Superstar, and, while that voice is some insanely huge beautiful thing, she often reverted back to her "playing noble" mode, which makes her really boring to watch. But I also can't see voters checking a box for Grande and not for Erivo, so I guess she's in?

Nathaniel, you have Erivo seventh in your predictions. What's your thinking there, and who do you think are the other big leaders besides Buckley and Reinsve?

NATHANIEL: As surely stated before, my predictions generally mix actual analysis, pessimism, hunches, and wishful thinking, if never in equal quarters (the balance varies). I am fully cognizant that betting against Erivo and Grande is risky. When I believed the year was going to be actressy/competitive, I thought it was a risk worth taking. The year hasn't really shaped up like that. I'm stubborn.

Unfortunately, 2025 turned out to be a "guy movie" year. One Battle After Another is the perfect example. You can read it as being about the women, but notice who P.T. Anderson is really interested in following - the three men! He's obviously a genius but no matter how spectacular his filmography has proven to be, I reserve the right to feeling slightly betrayed that he turned out to be a Master who mostly cares about a couple of male characters per movie like the most lauded Masters before him (Scorsese, Coppola, Kubrick, etc...). and less like the heir to Altman that he was originally promoted as being, wherein it was always about a big ensemble with women getting the juiciest roles.

Chase Infiniti in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.

CLÁUDIO: While your PTA rant isn't unwarranted, it's funny since One Battle After Another is (rightfully) competing in the Best Actress race. And I love Chase Infiniti as Willa, a performance of disarming naturalism that still manages to reveal and revel in that type of "a star is born" magnetism we love so much. Honestly, the way PTA deployed her reminds me of Kubrick and how he'd clash actors with different performance styles, often making the friction between them part of the cinematic edifice. Seeing Infiniti share the screen with the deliberately hyper-mannered DiCaprio and Penn felt akin to the shock of seeing Hollywood's past and its future coming head-to-head in Paths of Glory way back when. 

ERIC: I, too, thought Chase Infiniti was wonderful in OBAA, but not Oscar nomination wonderful. A very exciting debut performance for sure, but she was maybe the fourth-best performance in the film.  

CLÁUDIO: I must add that since the Best Supporting Actress volley, I've been terrified of a possible eleventh-hour category switch by the voters, à la Lakeith Stanfield. That idea has been planted into my mind, and I can't shake it off. Same goes for Laura Dern in Is This Thing On?, to be quite honest. 

But anyway...Wicked!

NATHANIEL: I got distracted! Wicked... that's what we were talking about.

Cynthia Erivo in WICKED: FOR GOOD | © Universal Pictures

The quick to double-nominate for the same role examples are generally in prestige dramas (Elizabeth, The Godfathers), while the spread-out nominations come from better-than-expected legacy sequels (Hustler/Color of Money, Rocky/Creed, etc.), and Wicked doesn't hit either of those. But wait, there is a precedent. It's so weird to say, but it's most like Bing Crosby (Going My Way/Bells of St Mary's) as an enormously popular, earnest musical performance. I'm probably wrong about them missing, yet it's fun to predict otherwise for now. 

Sadly, there is no reason to believe that the Oscars won't become more like the Emmys in the future given the slide toward everything in movies becoming a franchise and everything on TV becoming more like limited series. We'll soon have just one filmed art form instead of two.

I personally think it would be more exciting to welcome Jodie Foster back. She's so fucking good and interesting in A Private Life, giving us so many ways to think about her character's morality, professional abilities, and what's really driving her obsession. It would also be more exciting to continue acknowledging that Emma Stone is a bonafide MOVIE STAR - no matter what you think of Bugonia, I hope you can admit that she has tremendous range while always giving Emma Stone, like most great movie stars before her.

While I haven't seen either of these performances yet (maybe this week?), it breaks my heart that we can't have both Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) in the same lineup, who are both undervalued actors if we're going to honor a two-time nominee, a third time for doing what she already did. 

In short, I'm not a fan of double nominations for the same character. Never have been. I mean, Sigourney Weaver is great in every single Aliens movie, but one nomination was enough! Ian McKellen was unimprovable as Gandalf, but one nomination was enough! Etcetera. 

CLÁUDIO: As someone who has Sigourney Weaver pop up three times in my ideal Oscar ballots for playing Ellen Ripley, I don't have a leg to stand on regarding the perils of repetition in the case of an Erivo nod. I also think that, regardless of the critical response, Wicked: For Good will be a hit that the guilds will embrace, carrying its leading ladies to easy Oscar nominations. Last year, I was among the fools who predicted an Erivo snub, and that field felt more competitive than the 2025 crop - it goes without saying that I don't want to make the same mistake twice. Moreover, just earlier this year, she managed to snag an Emmy nomination for Poker Face, a show that otherwise only secured a nod for Stunt Work. It's fair to say that Erivo is beloved by her peers.

Amanda Seyfried in THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE | © Sony Pictures Classics

NATHANIEL: Talk to me about The Testament of Ann Lee (especially if you've seen it). Is Seyfried as great as they say, and can she overcome the fact that a lot of people don't like or "get" the movie? Isn't it time that we all acknowledge that it's a little embarrassing that everyone still thinks Amanda Seyfried being great is a "surprise" after all the rangey detours her career has taken? And talk to me about people you love that have no chance at an Oscar nomination in this category.

CLÁUDIO: Seyfried is remarkable in The Testament of Ann Lee, though I feel that what makes the film and her work worthy of admiration will also be what will turn voters off the most. Mona Fastvold did not devise a traditional biopic by any means, and I'm not just referring to the musical device. Instead, the film is closer to a study of faith and devotion, predicating its portrait of Ann Lee on explorations of what she meant rather than who she was. There's this constant, unwavering distance that's at odds with the emotional exuberance of the musical genre, with the physicality of the Shakers' worship, the fervor with which Seyfried surrenders to her character's messianic purpose without putting much effort into explaining Ann Lee or making her relatable to the viewer. My biggest hope for her is that the role is showy enough to impress voters, regardless of alienation.

Then again, Amanda Seyfried is a previous Oscar nominee starring in a fairly buzzy title. She's in the race, unlike many of my 2025 favorites. So, here's a shout-out to Zhao Tao, one of the 21st century's most essential screen performers, who reaches new heights in Jia Zhangke's Caught by the Tides. And Kim Min-hee, so incisive and brattishly funny in Hong Sang-soo's By the Stream. Carmen Maura proves she's still got it at 80 years old in Calle Málaga, and Callie Hernandez lays it all bare in the profoundly personal meta-narrative of Invention. Anamaria Vartolomei is quickly becoming one of THE actresses of her generation, with Being Maria another feather in her cap, while the three leads of Left-Handed Girl - Nina Yeh, Janel Tsai, Ma Shih-yuan - are all revelations in their own right. Ia Sukhitashvili and Andrea Bræin Hovig also deserve applause for working so strenuously to complete and complement their director's vision in Kulumbegashvili's April and Haugerud's Love, respectively. 

Finally, it should go without saying that Kathleen Chalfant is simply sublime in Familiar Touch, delivering a miraculous performance that never takes the easy way out or the expected path to greatness. She surprises and challenges the viewer throughout, portraying her character's deteriorating memory in a way that eschews notions of lost personhood. Instead, it's more of a metamorphosis, a tragedy that denies its own tragicness and forces us to look deeper.

Kathleen Chalfant in FAMILIAR TOUCH | © Music Box Films

What about you, guys? Who's seemingly out of the race for gold yet still deserving of our adoration and the readers' attention?

NATHANIEL: I'm glad you mentioned  Andrea Bræin Hovig, whom I loved to watch mull over new ideas about Love (I am very into that Norwegian trilogy) - she's a great listener onscreen. I also want to give a contradictory shout-out to Margaret Qualley, who I thought aced the assignment in Honey Don't. The contradiction is that I was just complaining about Movies becoming like TV a few paragraphs ago, and I wanted to immediately see 10 more "episodes" of her doing "Honey O'Donaghue" P.I. work. I had a great time in the audience, but I guess it did feel like a risqué pilot episode for an LGBTQ procedural. 

I also want to shout out June Squibb. She's not nomination-worthy in Eleanor the Great, though that's more of a screenplay/director issue, since the film seems to lose focus on who it's about just when it needs to really dig deeper. But I love that she's now landing leading roles on the regular in her 90s of all decades. She was worthier for Thelma, but that year is already in the history books.

ERIC: I know this is a hot take, but I find June Squibb to be... not great. It sounds uncharitable not to be charmed by this sweet woman, and for anti-ageism reasons, I, too, am glad she's getting plum roles at such an age. I just wish she were a better actress. I find her obvious and calculated. Indeed, she was pretty bad in Nebraska. Go ahead, let me have it!!!

Going back a bit, Nathaniel, I'm doubling down on your excitement for Jodie Foster in A Private Life. She makes the film incredibly fun and exciting, and the director fully capitalizes on the Foster specialty of somehow transporting us directly into her complicated headspace. Foster is giving us unfussy and unflashy acting that's deep and inspired, and she will make the Golden Globe list (they love her). So, maybe Sony Pictures Classics can do a push. Unlikely, I realize, but it would be an exciting nomination. 

Emma Stone in BUGONIA | © Focus Features

And I would also be thrilled to see Emma Stone nominated for Bugonia, and I agree with all you said, Nathaniel. She keeps surprising, and she and Plemons are phenomenal together. Cláudio, your words about Amanda Seyfried have gotten me excited about The Testament of Ann Lee, which I have yet to see.

The big kahuna we haven't discussed yet is Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, who is a real wild card in this race. On one hand, I could see her absolutely making it. The Academy loves her, even nominating her for Joy, and she is really back in the Lynne Ramsey film with a whopper of a performance, giving herself over to that director in an exciting way. On the other hand, her reign might be over (AMPAS moves on), and they really don't love their pretty things when they do risky, frisky, complicated work in sex films (see Nicole last year in Babygirl). It could genuinely go either way. She'll be nominated at the Globes, and if one or two of the four foremost critics organizations name her, she stands a shot. 

NATHANIEL:  All of these paragraphs and not a peep about Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. Is it because everyone has already decided that the Oscar is hers, and it's more exciting to think about the volatility of the other four slots?

CLÁUDIO: Buckley seems like the season's lockiest lock, doesn't she? I guess that's why we haven't been compelled to talk about her thus far, which is unfortunate as she is pretty spectacular in Hamnet, delivering one of the year's most interesting turns. It's her best work so far, and that's saying something, since her filmography has no shortage of greatness, from the prickly psychology of Beast to the righteous fury of Women Talking.

Jessie Buckley in HAMNET | © Focus Features

In her adaptation, Zhao has pared down a lot of the text, relying on silence and behavioral cues to let us into the characters' minds rather than the constant internal monologue that characterizes Maggie O'Farrell's novel. This affects Agnes especially hard, as her voice is such a central part of Hamnet on the page, and puts an awful lot of responsibility on Buckley's shoulders. Thankfully, she's up to her director's challenge, honing in on this woman's elemental qualities, her connection to nature as an extension of a mercurial personality that's never simply "witchy" or a mystery for us to solve. After my TIFF review and the Best Supporting Actor volley, it must be pretty evident that I don't think the last act of Hamnet works as well as it should. Yet, none of that ambivalence applies to Buckley, whose excellence remains a constant to the very end, justifying Zhao's expansion of the book's judicious close. 

Hers is one of three portraits of motherhood circling the Best Actress Oscar this year, though the other two have to contend with films without any other serious awards bid. If Buckley's Agnes is relatively at peace with her maternal role before the plague takes her son away, Rose Byrne's Linda and Jennifer Lawrence's Grace are as far removed from peace as is humanly possible. In If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, the Australian actress is tasked with negotiating between an anxiety supernova and the humorous possibilities at hand, committing as much to her comedienne tendencies as to the frenetic tragedy of it all. It's a masterstroke, genius casting rewarded with a miraculous performance that's so showy it's bound to impress even the most populist and traditional of awards voters.

I have my doubts about Lawrence's ability to overcome Die My Love's resolute abrasiveness. Don't get me wrong - the film is another knockout by the ever-reliable Lynne Ramsay, a vision of post-partum psychosis that keeps faithful to the original story's cyclical ways and purposeful lack of forward motion. It feels authentic to the experience of an unstable mind, and unapologetic about it in ways movies rarely are, especially when they feature Hollywood movie stars like Lawrence and Robert Pattinson. The performance follows suit, heavily physical and sometimes even clumsy, portraying the hollowness that comes with depression with a ferocious lack of compromise. So, sometimes, her actions onscreen don't feel motivated. Instead, Grace appears compelled by an inner force that hasn't been rationalized or even articulated to herself. She has more conventional passages in her portrait, but this remains the sort of primarily behavioral performance one rarely sees on Oscar lineups. In other words, I'm pessimistic about her likelihood as a nominee.

ERIC: I realized we hadn't discussed Jessie Buckley, but it makes sense. She's the lockiest of the locked locks. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I don't see anyone overtaking her for the win unless things change drastically. This is as much about her performance, which is heavenly, as it is about how much Hamnet will be loved by voters. If a movie as pedestrian and lame as CODA can go all the way to Oscar because it makes voters cry, Hamnet is the real deal. Zhao has devised an artful, beautifully made, genuine tearjerker movie that voters will want to reward, and Buckley is the one who carries the film and the viewers. It will be a wonderfully deserved win if it happens. At the very least, she's a lock for the nomination. 

Jennifer Lawrence in DIE MY LOVE | © MUBI

My best guess is that it'll be a question of who wins the critics awards in the case of Lawrence and Byrne. Or if they choose to go in another direction. Of the two "mother films," I personally think Die My Love is a better film than If I Had Legs I Would Kick You, and I prefer Lawrence to Byrne as well. But both actresses are doing interesting, complicated, surprising work. Nominations for either of them are possible but not probable.  

A personal shout-out is Zoey Deutsch in Nouvelle Vague (Is she supporting? Perhaps.). Her Jean Seberg is feisty and funny, and, as she brings out her light, Deutsch finds the streak of melancholy and restlessness in her that will become her unraveling. I know she won't factor into serious awards contention... Nouvelle Vague probably won't factor into any race, which is a shame, because it's a perfect film for what it is. I'd give it that first Best Casting Oscar, the way they found dead-on doppelgangers for everyone, and that all those people were able to act perfectly "in period," bringing so much authenticity, is miraculous. 

But I digress. Shall we move towards predictions and final thoughts? Here's what I'm thinking at the moment: 

Buckley (lock)
Reinsve (very likely)
Seyfried (possibly)
Stone (possibly)
Erivo (possibly) 

Jennifer Lawrence and Rose Byrne could replace one of those quite easily, as awards bodies go their way and the season advances.

NATHANIEL: I keep putting off Die My Love, which I feel tremendously guilty about, but once screener seasons start - privilege problem incoming - I have too many options each day and am ruled by moods. This is a factor each year, whether we acknowledge it or not, with all voting bodies. The problem, of course, is amplified by the year-end glut and the fact that many voters don't keep up all year long. I struggle each third quarter, and I can't imagine how much more difficult it would be to weigh all the options if I weren't at the movie theater on the regular, well before November each year!

This weekend,  I crammed in Nouvelle Vague (I co-sign your Deutsch & Casting enthusiasm), The Testament of Ann Lee, Wicked: For Good, Dead Man's Wire, Peter Hujar's Day, Hamnet, and a slew of animated shorts. But there are only so many hours in each day. So here's where I'm at as we wrap this conversation: 

they're obviously going to be there
Buckley, Reinsve 

they have a clear path to a nod but there are six of them so...
Stone, Erivo, Seyfried, Byrne, Infinitii, Lawrence

longer shots - might some orgs give them a boost?
Foster, Roberts, Thompson, Hudson, Dern, etc...

ERIC: Since he's seen the movie, I know Cláudio needs to talk about Kate Hudson before we wrap up. 

Kate Hudson in SONG SUNG BLUE | © Focus Features

CLÁUDIO: So... Kate Hudson. Part of the reason why talk of Hamnet becoming the awards season's villain surprised me so much when I read that Joe Reid piece on Vulture was that, in my mind, Focus has a much better candidate for the title in their roster. Moreover, they've been campaigning ferociously, even peppering it into press events and cocktail party conversations back at TIFF. Song Sung Blue feels like the most astroturfed Oscar contender of the year, for me, a monstrously incoherent piece of filmmaking whose wanton love of misery makes it feel much more exploitative than you'd initially imagine. Despite competing as a Comedy or Musical, it's a downright melodrama, reveling in every bad thing that befalls its characters, even changing some real-life details around to make it all extra dramatic, eager for its holiday audiences to pull out their handkerchiefs.  

My dislike is so extreme that I can't help but believe it'll be a big player, especially in the Best Actress race. Kate Hudson does it all as far as Oscar buzz clichés go. She's charming and luminous when singing early in the movie, she puts on an accent, then she ages, she deglams, wears makeup to make her look heavier, suffers great physical pain, plays disability, and even gets to mourn at the end, serving up a funeral song break that will surely be used by some awards ceremony as her showcase clip. I'll say this - she's actually quite good at modulating her portrayal of Claire Sardina in the concert performance scenes. Everywhere else, her star turn is ropier and rather rote, in ways that are less interesting than Hugh Jackman in the same film, even if he's merely putting an extra anxious spin on his usual "desperate to entertain" showbiz persona. Folks saying she's never been better have a much more negative opinion of Kate Hudson as an actress than I do - sorry (not sorry) for the shade. 

With that in mind, while I wouldn't say she's nearly as locked as Buckley, I feel Hudson is still likelier than either of you is predicting. Here's my best guess for the Best Actress five:

Buckley (lock)
Reinsve (likely)
Hudson (likely... he writes through tears and gritted teeth)
Byrne (critical darling who makes the cut)
Erivo (like Eric, I can't imagine Grande getting in and not her, and I can't imagine Grande being snubbed)

I could see any combination of Lawrence, Stone, Thompson, Seyfried, and Infiniti getting in over those latter two, however. Some say Sweeney could be a threat with Christy, but those box-office results are historically bad enough that I feel the love isn't there for her.

On that note, and to quote a certain musical... THANK GOODNESS!

Rose Byrne in IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU | © A24

Other Oscar Volleys:

• BEST DIRECTOR with Eric and Cláudio
• BEST ACTOR with Eric and Nathaniel
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS with Cláudio and Nathaniel
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR with Eric and Cláudio

Further Reading:

• Eric's ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER review
• Cláudio's HAMNET review
• Cláudio's HEDDA review
• Cláudio's IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU review
• Cláudio's NOUVELLE VAGUE review
• Cláudio's SENTIMENTAL VALUE review
• Cláudio's THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE review
• Cláudio's WICKED: FOR GOOD review
• Elisa's BUGONIA review
• Eurocheese's IS THIS THING ON? review
• Nick's FAMILIAR TOUCH review
• Nathaniel's BEST ACTRESS prediction charts 

Comments

[Ad_Mil]

It's going to be:

Buckley
Reinsve
Stone
Seyfried

Then for the fifth spot it should be Byrne, but if we actually end up with that top 5, wouldn't it be one for the strongest Best Actress categories of the millennium? The Oscars do love more signaled, sentimental work, so I wouldn't count Erivo or Hudson out yet.

[JWB]

It’s a real shame that Eva Victor isn’t in the conversation for Sorry, Baby. It’s the performance (along with Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams) that has moved me the most this year. It’s beautiful work, and would be so deserving.