Oscar Volley: Can the world's biggest movie star win the Best Actor race? Surely not!

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Tuesday

Nov182025

Tuesday, November 18, 2025 at 8:30PM

The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Eric Blume and Nathaniel Rogers to discuss the Best Actor race...

Leonardo DiCaprio in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.

ERIC: Nathaniel, I feel so lucky getting you all to myself to discuss this year's Best Actor race. There are probably several candidates we have yet to see this season, but let's dive in.

It seems to me that the one actor most guaranteed a nomination also has zero chance of actually winning: Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. The film will have a big nomination haul, and because his performance seems to be universally beloved (as opposed to his work in Killers of the Flower Moon, where he was may be objectively bad?), I think he's in. But there's no way he's winning. Too many other candidates with overdue narratives or even flashier parts…

Do you agree? Or do you think they might skip Leo? What are your feelings about the other near-locks?

NATHANIEL: Initially, I thought we could be in for another Titanic / Departed / Gangs of New York / Flower Moon situation where he's the major element left out in nominations (it's happened to him frequently if you really look at history), both because he's been amply rewarded and because this particular movie is so textured that you can theoretically be very good in it and still not be somebody's favourite element, you know?

Absolutely agree with you that the world's biggest movie star can't actually win this time. I have him in second position now because there is a slight possibility he'll be left out. The person I cannot imagine missing is Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), given the outsized reaction to his solid but hardly revelatory work in A Complete Unknown, being chased so quickly by a performance people appear to be yet more excited about. He could even win and become the second youngest ever. Come Oscar night, he'll be a few months older than Adrien Brody was in The Pianist and a few months younger than Richard Dreyfuss in The Goodbye Girl.

Wagner Moura in THE SECRET AGENT | © Neon

Beyond Timmy and Leo, it gets a lot murkier because everyone seems both highly possible and unlikely at the same time if such a duality is possible. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), for example, could very well become a lock, but I'm not ready to say go there yet.

I have struggled to get a read on what people really think of the other performances which feel theoretically competitive, namely: George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners).

There are a lot of other men to choose from if voters are watching a good number of films - as if, lol: Denzel (Highest 2 Lowest), Tonatiuh (Kiss of the Spider-Woman), Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jackman (Song Sung Blue), and incredibly charismatic star turns from Channing Tatum (Roofman) and Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)... but they will all become true blue longshots unless one of the big precursor awards signs on and prompts voters to "C O N S I D E R " before they start voting in January.

Who are you rooting for? Who do you think is a stealth threat to the final five? Who do you think is just not happening, no matter the current buzz?

ERIC: Great to hear your take on the current landscape, and I essentially agree on every point! Lots of can-absolutely-see-it-happening-and-can-absolutely-see-it-not-happening candidates this year.

Timothée Chalamet in MARTY SUPREME | © A24

I agree that Chalamet and DiCaprio are the two near-locks, assuming Leo isn't left out (didn't put together that he lost out four times as you mention so smartly). Timothée is a freakishly talented young actor, but I also can't buy into any "overdue" narrative about him winning. Settle down, people: he's given one truly great performance in Call Me By Your Name (and was better than that year's winner, Gary Oldman, IMO). But, otherwise, it's been mostly solid work from him, and he'll have lots of chances ahead. I haven't yet seen Marty Supreme, though the trailers have made me wanna vom, so maybe I'll change my tune!

The one person who *will* happen for a nomination, and possibly even a win, is Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. If they can get people to see the movie (admittedly tricky because it is a real curio), he's in. The first reel of the film is basically a monologue, and it takes place mostly in real time, with him never disappearing for a minute. It's a real old-school tour de force, and Hawke manages to make Lorenz Hart oily and touching in equal measure. Voters are suckers for this kind of repellent/compelling acting, and Hawke really delivers. I'm not a gigantic fan of his, but he's done fine work for three decades now, has become an ardent supporter of independent cinema and auteurs, and is universally well-liked, admired throughout the industry. I think he's in for a nomination despite the film's smallness (Linklater's "Film Bro Cred" will help), and if he campaigns appropriately, could squeak by Chalamet. Hawke will have the more authentic and lasting overdue narrative in comparison.

My personal vote would go to Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, because he's really out there. The actor finds varying beats within a constricted lane, never reducing that role to a stereotypical incel psychology while still staying true to that same psychology. He plays so beautifully off Emma Stone scene after scene, and keeps things weird. There's a lot going on in that performance, and Plemons is a beloved character actor in the vein of Steven Yeun, Riz Ahmed, Jeffrey Wright, and Sebastian Stan, who have earned Oscar nominations in the past few years.

There will likely be an actor who wins two or three of the critics' circle awards, like Wagner Moura or Lee Byung-hun, and whoever the beneficiary is will carry that goodwill to a nomination as well.

Clooney and Edgerton seem like the strongest of the two who could fill out the slate. I think Train Dreams is going to either completely catch on and factor into several categories, or it will get lost. Too early to tell. I don't think it's happening for Jeremy Allen White this year.

Michael B. Jordan in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.

Michael B. Jordan is a wonderful actor, and I know most people are predicting him, but I am in the camp that thinks Sinners is absurdly overrated. I'm not on board with him. While I'm well aware that many people love Sinners passionately, I also know many who don't think highly of it at all, far more than Film Twitter would lead you to believe. Jordan is the perfect example of the actor who seems both very likely and unlikely. Same for Dwayne Johnson. I could see The Smashing Machine getting a second round of air if he keeps getting nominated for precursors, or I could see it never fully catching on.

Do you think I'm crazy in this assessment? Where are you on the likely versus not likely gentlemen?

NATHANIEL: If I ran the world, Michael B. Jordan would already have two Oscar nominations (Creed and Black Panther), so I'm a fan, but I think he's one of the weaker elements of that movie... which I otherwise like quite a lot. Maybe it's my disappointment that it's not exciting as a "twin" performance and I'm a sucker for those. I just didn't see anything to set it apart from solid/serviceable, and I always get angry at performances like that taking up oxygen in "Best" conversations. Just this year, there was a revelatory twin performance from Dylan O'Brien (Twinless) that nobody is talking about.

Fun factoid: Only one actor has ever been nominated for a vampire picture, despite several iconic performances in that genre across the decades. That was Willem Dafoe playing an actor playing a vampire in Shadow of the Vampire, so it had that showbusiness meta layer.

Ethan Hawke in BLUE MOON | © Sony Pictures Classics

I agree with what you're saying about Ethan Hawke (and I've been predicting him for a while), but I didn't quite love the performance. It's certainly a tour de force, but there's something too strenuous about it. I had the same reaction to Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player. Both star turns are clearly the work of very committed, very strong actors, yet I needed both of them to take it down a notch, to allow some breathing room for audience projection and connection. I don't know if that makes any sense. The other reason I resist Hawke a little in that picture is that, quite frankly, Andrew Scott is full-on spectacular without half as much to do. The amount of nuance and relationship history he's imbuing, despite barely even getting a word in, honestly bowled me over.

Joel Edgerton is very good in Train Dreams, and, in a way, the movie couldn't be a better fit for him since it's as hushed and non-verbal as his most famous performances have been. He's almost the perfect example of the wide-open Happening/Not Happening discussion we're having. Train Dreams works fantastically well in the immersive chamber of a movie theater (the Academy audience I saw it with was rapt), but I can't really see it working for voters who are just casually catching up with their screeners. Why does Netflix, of all distributors, keep buying movies like this (see also Roma) that are magical only if you fully commit to them, but almost impossible to imagine capturing any viewer who is easily distracted and only watches movies like they're television shows?

You're probably right that Jeremy Allen White isn't happening, though I left him high on my prediction chart because of the exhausting fact that the music-related biopic is Oscar's all-time favourite subgenre. For the record, I disliked the picture quite a lot. Scott Cooper's misguidedly commitment to tonal monotony and the wooden screenplay sap all the life out of it and take away from the reasons why anyone would be there in the first place (White's performance and the soundtrack).

So, where I'm at right now:

Chalamet (Lock)
DiCaprio (Near Lock)
Moura (probably)
Hawke (probably)
It Could Literally Be Anyone (at the moment, I've randomly said "Clooney" on the chart)

ERIC: Dylan O'Brien's performance is without question better than Michael B. Jordan's. It's only a hot take if you haven't seen both.

Interesting take on Hawke's performance. I think not turning it down a notch is the point, but I understand and respect your need for it. Andrew Scott is always up to some kind of miracle acting, and I agree with you there for sure.

Excited to see Train Dreams and plan to turn my home into an immersive chamber to appreciate it. I will never forget seeing Joel Edgerton's performance as Stanley Kowalski opposite Cate Blanchett's Blanche DuBois onstage, where he really let his rage go with the most direct motivations possible. He has enormous range and has been unsung for too many years. Not even having seen his film, I am nevertheless rooting for him.

I thought a nomination for Daniel Day-Lewis was definitely going to happen... until I saw Anemone, which, despite a few beautiful images, is overlong and undernourished. Day-Lewis' raw power is front and center, but there's no way the average voter of any organization is making it through that film. I'm still sore about Brendan Fraser winning for that borderline awful performance in The Whale a few years back, despite thinking he's the most delightful human, so I'm not sorry to see Rental Family stall out.

Toniatuh is wonderful in Kiss of the Spider-Woman, so it's a shame he'll be lost in the shuffle. Do we think there's any chance Russell Crowe could pick up steam for Nuremberg? Or Hugh Jackman showing up beyond the Golden Globes?

I'm guessing these five at the moment:

Chalamet (lock)
DiCaprio (lock)
Hawke (probably)
Moura (probably)
Edgerton (if it catches on), but agreed...anybody

Any final thoughts?

NATHANIEL: I suspect Nuremberg is DOA, but I could see Tonatiuh or Jackman surprise in the season, even if they don't make it to the big night. I'm eager to see Song Sung Blue, as Craig Brewer films are usually worthwhile. Sad to say, though, that Kiss of the Spider-Woman didn't work for me (including Tonatiuh & JLo, who both had the surface razzle but not the interior dazzle needed). I did admire its oversized ambition and kept rooting for it, so it was a frustrating experience. Frankly, it would have taken a Fosse-level auteur to pull it off, given the source material. In the end, I just wanted to rewatch the 1985 picture.

But fast forward 40 years… can't wait to see how this Oscar race pans out. Thanks for the conversation!

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