Oscar Volley: Can the world's biggest movie star win the Best Actor race? Surely not!
Tuesday, November 18, 2025 at 8:30PM The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Eric Blume and Nathaniel Rogers to discuss the Best Actor race...
Leonardo DiCaprio in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.
ERIC: Nathaniel, I feel so lucky getting you all to myself to discuss this year's Best Actor race. There are probably several candidates we have yet to see this season, but let's dive in.
It seems to me that the one actor most guaranteed a nomination also has zero chance of actually winning: Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. The film will have a big nomination haul, and because his performance seems to be universally beloved (as opposed to his work in Killers of the Flower Moon, where he was may be objectively bad?), I think he's in. But there's no way he's winning. Too many other candidates with overdue narratives or even flashier parts…
Do you agree? Or do you think they might skip Leo? What are your feelings about the other near-locks?
NATHANIEL: Initially, I thought we could be in for another Titanic / Departed / Gangs of New York / Flower Moon situation where he's the major element left out in nominations (it's happened to him frequently if you really look at history), both because he's been amply rewarded and because this particular movie is so textured that you can theoretically be very good in it and still not be somebody's favourite element, you know?
Absolutely agree with you that the world's biggest movie star can't actually win this time. I have him in second position now because there is a slight possibility he'll be left out. The person I cannot imagine missing is Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), given the outsized reaction to his solid but hardly revelatory work in A Complete Unknown, being chased so quickly by a performance people appear to be yet more excited about. He could even win and become the second youngest ever. Come Oscar night, he'll be a few months older than Adrien Brody was in The Pianist and a few months younger than Richard Dreyfuss in The Goodbye Girl.
Wagner Moura in THE SECRET AGENT | © Neon
Beyond Timmy and Leo, it gets a lot murkier because everyone seems both highly possible and unlikely at the same time if such a duality is possible. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), for example, could very well become a lock, but I'm not ready to say go there yet.
I have struggled to get a read on what people really think of the other performances which feel theoretically competitive, namely: George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners).
There are a lot of other men to choose from if voters are watching a good number of films - as if, lol: Denzel (Highest 2 Lowest), Tonatiuh (Kiss of the Spider-Woman), Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Jackman (Song Sung Blue), and incredibly charismatic star turns from Channing Tatum (Roofman) and Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)... but they will all become true blue longshots unless one of the big precursor awards signs on and prompts voters to "C O N S I D E R " before they start voting in January.
Who are you rooting for? Who do you think is a stealth threat to the final five? Who do you think is just not happening, no matter the current buzz?
ERIC: Great to hear your take on the current landscape, and I essentially agree on every point! Lots of can-absolutely-see-it-happening-and-can-absolutely-see-it-not-happening candidates this year.
Timothée Chalamet in MARTY SUPREME | © A24
I agree that Chalamet and DiCaprio are the two near-locks, assuming Leo isn't left out (didn't put together that he lost out four times as you mention so smartly). Timothée is a freakishly talented young actor, but I also can't buy into any "overdue" narrative about him winning. Settle down, people: he's given one truly great performance in Call Me By Your Name (and was better than that year's winner, Gary Oldman, IMO). But, otherwise, it's been mostly solid work from him, and he'll have lots of chances ahead. I haven't yet seen Marty Supreme, though the trailers have made me wanna vom, so maybe I'll change my tune!
The one person who *will* happen for a nomination, and possibly even a win, is Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. If they can get people to see the movie (admittedly tricky because it is a real curio), he's in. The first reel of the film is basically a monologue, and it takes place mostly in real time, with him never disappearing for a minute. It's a real old-school tour de force, and Hawke manages to make Lorenz Hart oily and touching in equal measure. Voters are suckers for this kind of repellent/compelling acting, and Hawke really delivers. I'm not a gigantic fan of his, but he's done fine work for three decades now, has become an ardent supporter of independent cinema and auteurs, and is universally well-liked, admired throughout the industry. I think he's in for a nomination despite the film's smallness (Linklater's "Film Bro Cred" will help), and if he campaigns appropriately, could squeak by Chalamet. Hawke will have the more authentic and lasting overdue narrative in comparison.
My personal vote would go to Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, because he's really out there. The actor finds varying beats within a constricted lane, never reducing that role to a stereotypical incel psychology while still staying true to that same psychology. He plays so beautifully off Emma Stone scene after scene, and keeps things weird. There's a lot going on in that performance, and Plemons is a beloved character actor in the vein of Steven Yeun, Riz Ahmed, Jeffrey Wright, and Sebastian Stan, who have earned Oscar nominations in the past few years.
There will likely be an actor who wins two or three of the critics' circle awards, like Wagner Moura or Lee Byung-hun, and whoever the beneficiary is will carry that goodwill to a nomination as well.
Clooney and Edgerton seem like the strongest of the two who could fill out the slate. I think Train Dreams is going to either completely catch on and factor into several categories, or it will get lost. Too early to tell. I don't think it's happening for Jeremy Allen White this year.
Michael B. Jordan in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.
Michael B. Jordan is a wonderful actor, and I know most people are predicting him, but I am in the camp that thinks Sinners is absurdly overrated. I'm not on board with him. While I'm well aware that many people love Sinners passionately, I also know many who don't think highly of it at all, far more than Film Twitter would lead you to believe. Jordan is the perfect example of the actor who seems both very likely and unlikely. Same for Dwayne Johnson. I could see The Smashing Machine getting a second round of air if he keeps getting nominated for precursors, or I could see it never fully catching on.
Do you think I'm crazy in this assessment? Where are you on the likely versus not likely gentlemen?
NATHANIEL: If I ran the world, Michael B. Jordan would already have two Oscar nominations (Creed and Black Panther), so I'm a fan, but I think he's one of the weaker elements of that movie... which I otherwise like quite a lot. Maybe it's my disappointment that it's not exciting as a "twin" performance and I'm a sucker for those. I just didn't see anything to set it apart from solid/serviceable, and I always get angry at performances like that taking up oxygen in "Best" conversations. Just this year, there was a revelatory twin performance from Dylan O'Brien (Twinless) that nobody is talking about.
Fun factoid: Only one actor has ever been nominated for a vampire picture, despite several iconic performances in that genre across the decades. That was Willem Dafoe playing an actor playing a vampire in Shadow of the Vampire, so it had that showbusiness meta layer.
Ethan Hawke in BLUE MOON | © Sony Pictures Classics
I agree with what you're saying about Ethan Hawke (and I've been predicting him for a while), but I didn't quite love the performance. It's certainly a tour de force, but there's something too strenuous about it. I had the same reaction to Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player. Both star turns are clearly the work of very committed, very strong actors, yet I needed both of them to take it down a notch, to allow some breathing room for audience projection and connection. I don't know if that makes any sense. The other reason I resist Hawke a little in that picture is that, quite frankly, Andrew Scott is full-on spectacular without half as much to do. The amount of nuance and relationship history he's imbuing, despite barely even getting a word in, honestly bowled me over.
Joel Edgerton is very good in Train Dreams, and, in a way, the movie couldn't be a better fit for him since it's as hushed and non-verbal as his most famous performances have been. He's almost the perfect example of the wide-open Happening/Not Happening discussion we're having. Train Dreams works fantastically well in the immersive chamber of a movie theater (the Academy audience I saw it with was rapt), but I can't really see it working for voters who are just casually catching up with their screeners. Why does Netflix, of all distributors, keep buying movies like this (see also Roma) that are magical only if you fully commit to them, but almost impossible to imagine capturing any viewer who is easily distracted and only watches movies like they're television shows?
You're probably right that Jeremy Allen White isn't happening, though I left him high on my prediction chart because of the exhausting fact that the music-related biopic is Oscar's all-time favourite subgenre. For the record, I disliked the picture quite a lot. Scott Cooper's misguidedly commitment to tonal monotony and the wooden screenplay sap all the life out of it and take away from the reasons why anyone would be there in the first place (White's performance and the soundtrack).
So, where I'm at right now:
Chalamet (Lock)
DiCaprio (Near Lock)
Moura (probably)
Hawke (probably)
It Could Literally Be Anyone (at the moment, I've randomly said "Clooney" on the chart)
ERIC: Dylan O'Brien's performance is without question better than Michael B. Jordan's. It's only a hot take if you haven't seen both.
Interesting take on Hawke's performance. I think not turning it down a notch is the point, but I understand and respect your need for it. Andrew Scott is always up to some kind of miracle acting, and I agree with you there for sure.
Joel Edgerton in TRAIN DREAMS | © Netflix
Excited to see Train Dreams and plan to turn my home into an immersive chamber to appreciate it. I will never forget seeing Joel Edgerton's performance as Stanley Kowalski opposite Cate Blanchett's Blanche DuBois onstage, where he really let his rage go with the most direct motivations possible. He has enormous range and has been unsung for too many years. Not even having seen his film, I am nevertheless rooting for him.
I thought a nomination for Daniel Day-Lewis was definitely going to happen... until I saw Anemone, which, despite a few beautiful images, is overlong and undernourished. Day-Lewis' raw power is front and center, but there's no way the average voter of any organization is making it through that film. I'm still sore about Brendan Fraser winning for that borderline awful performance in The Whale a few years back, despite thinking he's the most delightful human, so I'm not sorry to see Rental Family stall out.
Toniatuh is wonderful in Kiss of the Spider-Woman, so it's a shame he'll be lost in the shuffle. Do we think there's any chance Russell Crowe could pick up steam for Nuremberg? Or Hugh Jackman showing up beyond the Golden Globes?
I'm guessing these five at the moment:
Chalamet (lock)
DiCaprio (lock)
Hawke (probably)
Moura (probably)
Edgerton (if it catches on), but agreed...anybody
Any final thoughts?
NATHANIEL: I suspect Nuremberg is DOA, but I could see Tonatiuh or Jackman surprise in the season, even if they don't make it to the big night. I'm eager to see Song Sung Blue, as Craig Brewer films are usually worthwhile. Sad to say, though, that Kiss of the Spider-Woman didn't work for me (including Tonatiuh & JLo, who both had the surface razzle but not the interior dazzle needed). I did admire its oversized ambition and kept rooting for it, so it was a frustrating experience. Frankly, it would have taken a Fosse-level auteur to pull it off, given the source material. In the end, I just wanted to rewatch the 1985 picture.
But fast forward 40 years… can't wait to see how this Oscar race pans out. Thanks for the conversation!
Tonatiuh in KISS OF THE SPIDER-WOMAN | © Lionsgate
Other Oscar Volleys:
Further Reading:
- Eric's ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER review
- Cláudio's BLUE MOON review
- Elisa's BUGONIA review
- Elisa's JAY KELLY review
- Elisa's NO OTHER CHOICE review
- Elisa's THE SMASHING MACHINE review
- Eurocheese's IS THIS THING ON? review
- Nick's review of the GOTHAM BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMER nominees
- Nathaniel's BEST ACTOR prediction charts
Reader Comments (20)
every time i see that promo pic of ethan hawke from blue moon i think of trinity the tuck doing leslie jordan on snatch game
oops
Why is Moura being considered so likely?? He does nothing very memorable in THE SECRET AGENT I'm afraid!
Dylan O'Brien all the way!!!
And justice for Benicio Del Toro! He should be nommed for THE PHOENICIAN SCHEME this year only lets be honest!!
"Film Twitter" must be an echo chamber that reflects the views of a small and vocal group of the tragically online (and still on X). All that to say, most people I know who love Sinners don't tweet.
I totally agree on Sinners,It's like you are committing herecy when you say it was just ok,a solid vampire flick that takes 4 hrs to get going.
Wearing two different suits does not make up the bulk of the work when playing twins,I couldn't tell half the time which one Jordan thought he was playing in any scene.
O'Connell and Mosaku were delivering in that film and for the my money the weaker elements Lindo and Jordan are being considered for awards,collective thinking once again.
Leo could win if they still feel Timothee is too young,I didn't like his Dylan last year but realised i'm not the audience for a Dylan film,I dislike his music.
Allen White looks more like Manilow than Springsteen and biopics of musicians have been done to death,i'm dreading Michael next year.
Maura is having the Torres treatment this year,he won Cannes but it doesn't always translate to Oscar.
Edgerton is a prospect but sometimes he is too subtle as to not register at all,Macy could bring him along if Macy gets any traction.
Day Lewis isn't happening,he is going to have to star in something big and flashy and very Oscary to get that 7th nomination.
Clooney could go either way,his film is about the industry,he's been away from the Oscar game for a long time directing movies,the film is enjoyable and he's fine in it as is Sandler but Crudup steals the thing with his few scenes.
If Stone gets in Best Actress there's no way Plemons doesn't,it's a two hander but if they've cooled on Stone and they hopefully haven't this could be one of those happy to be here nominations.
I am from a time when Hawke broke through in 89's Dead Poets Society so to see how far he's come and now a veteran is quite satisfying,my only reservation is the film is a small indie,fingers crossed though,he's also doing transformative too and I know it's a cliche a tortured gay man.
Regarding Crowe he just feels like a real Globes pick,i'm seeing that film next week but i'll agree it is probably DOA but it is about the holocaust and Oscar likes those.
Jackman can enjoy the Globes party and look good in a suit.
Arnett i've never heard of,the film won't catch on so it's a no.
Washington Not this year and he has expressed his views on the Oscars this year and lots of it seemed like he isn't bothered anymore.
Tonatiuh nope despite being good in the film,Lopez really does give the better performance
Wild Card I have a feeling Dwayne Johnson might come roaring back once the season is up and running.
I actually found Jordan quite good in Sinners (and agree he is overdue for a nom) so I won't begrudge one for this performance. Certainly not win worthy, but he helps set the tone of the film along with a stellar supporting cast and plays both characters differently while selling the familial bond between them and their cousin. I think he'll get in on the Sinners love/box office success/overdue narrative but the genre bias will be the biggest hurdle
Chalamet
Dicaprio
Hawke
Moura
Jordan
Otherwise agree with you both and thanks for a great writeup!
Wae mest - yes, Del Toro deserves a double nomination this year. He hasn't been this good since Things We Lost in the Fire (lead) and Sicario (supporting). Btw, I feel bad people are taking for granted Wes Anderson's films again, in particular in Production Design and Costumes. I think Milena Canonero should have been nominated for all her contributions to the andersonverse. The colors in The Phoenician Scheme, omg, so perfect
Hilarious to me that Ethan Hawke is going to parlay his greater reputation as an artist and greybeard to a nomination for a role that would go nowhere in awards season for most actors, after being overlooked for quite a few good performances when he was a young man. Sort of reminds me of Johnny Depp in the aughts.
I would absolutely love for Dylan O'Brien to make a "To Leslie" run and get in out of nowhere; he probably doesn't have nearly that many friends though.
My guess is Plemons, however, gets in as the fifth spot on that sort of dynamic. It seems like he's in everything and is a favorite of some great directors. Plus, even the weirder of Yorgos's titles at least get seen.
great article, thanks
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By the way, why isn’t Elordi a frontrunner in lead? Sheesh. It’s a more interesting and engaged performances than many of the contenders.
I think you're underestimating Leo. If Timmy doesn't run away with it, Leo's a prime contender for #2. And in a likely Best Picture winner too?
Most people won't balk at a second Oscar for him. And he hasn't been nominated since 2019, so it's not like he's been a constant fixture.
And I'd add "Don't Look Up" to the list of snubs for him (Globe and BAFTA nominated).
I originally had Jordan placed as third, but when reviewing my predictions, I had Sinners with 14 nominations (tying the record which is not going to happen) so I am reevaluating everything today. If three spots or open then usually they go to performers that are liked or the movie is liked. Jordan and Sinners both fall into those categories so maybe he really does have a chance.
Personally I hope that Tonatiuh gets a nomination. I thought they were a revelation. Hopefully a golden globe nod or indie spirit gets traction going.
Also I see some pairs happening. As others have stated, If Emma Stone gets nominated, then surely Plemons has to get nominated too since their film is such a duet. If Hawke gets nominated, does that mean Scott gets into supporting?
Dylan O'Brien gave one of the best performances I have seen in a really long time in Twinless. Here's hoping those critics awards come through!
I just wish my personal pick would get traction but obviously that won't happen - Jonathan Majors in Magazine Dreams is an awards-worthy performance if I ever saw one.
Timothee is so overrated its sickening - if he wins and Michael B Jordan can't even get nominated, it will be a VERY disappointing year.
It seems like Bugonia has fans here, but i haven't heard much about it anywhere else... or that may just be me? Didn't seem like it was a major player but who knows.
My hope for this year is a strong showing for Sinners and Weapons (which would be surprising) - but at least these films were original (IMO) and were solid blockbusters - even one could say surprisingly successful.
But if this year is musical biopics, a Stone/Lanthimos film and Wicked 2 - then the Oscars are going the way of everything else - lazy remakes and reboots.
The reason I see Leo winning again is due to the first Oscar to be more of a crowning/it's time win then one for that particular performance despite him being solid in it,it's divisive win.
If it had been a singular role like The Wolf of Wall St or even The Aviaator or perhaps once Upon A Time In Hollywood I think he'd more a long shot for a win and BP heat helps enormously.
I think it will be Chalamet despite his age,they make the young ones wait especially the men but he is the actor du jour and almost won it last year plus he's playing loosely a real person and Leo isn't.
Strange how they made Leo wait years and now he is a potential spoiler in his fifties.
Increasingly curious to see Blue Moon. Linklater is not someone I ever associate with making flashy enough work for the Academy to easily bite. Even Boyhood always seemed an unusual contender (and well, it came up short in the end I suppose). Which is why I wasn't too high on Hawke's chances but the way you two talk about it has made me more interested in that and its odds. Hawke definitely has the perfect profile for a winner here.
I do think and am surprised tbh at how easily you're both discounting Leo. I don't think this compares to the instances he was ignored (most of which make sense within context -for GONY his other leading man got in, and for TD he got in but different movie). Might be my own bias but this was the most I've enjoyed him in over a decade and from what I read reviews a lot of people felt that way. His last win was ten years ago and he's definitely got the love in his career for a second win. Starring in the likely Best Picture winner seems to me to put him at leaaaast in strong consideration for that.
For me, it's going to be a tough race between Clamamet and Hawke.
Definitely, they're the frontrunners.
We'll see. 🏓🎹
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