Who Will Be This Year's "Out-of-Nowhere" Oscar Nominee?
Sunday, January 3, 2016 at 8:39AM 
Coco here, ready to talk about the current Oscar race and the surprises that might pop up.
Last week, we discussed SAG's bizarre taste. The math works against it but we're desperately hoping the Academy breaks free of their influence. Perhaps we should focus our hope on a recent wave of surprising, "out-of-nowhere" nominations at the Oscars. Ever since 2011 (the year the Academy turned Best Picture into a flexible category with as little as 5 and as many as 10 nominees), there's been at least one acting nominee that landed on Oscar's list without being previously nominated at either the Golden Globes, SAG, or BAFTA.
Here are the stats...
2011 - The shocking inclusion of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in Best Picture came with the legendary Max von Sydow in tow for his mute performance in Best Supporting Actor.
2012 - Everyone was surprised by the amount of support Silver Linings Playbook had considering the supporting Actress nomination for Jacki Weaver. (Various precursors had usually included Nicole Kidman in the divisive Lee Daniels film The Paperboy or random shout outs to Dames Judi Dench (Skyall) and Maggie Smith (Marigold Hotel) and even the then lesser known Ann Dowd (who was pitched as supporting in Compliance though she had the film's central role). It's also hard to remember now, but Quvenzhané Wallis had none of the big three precursor nominations before she made the Best Actress line-up for Beasts of the Southern Wild (though she was included at Critics Choice and at the Spirit Awards)
2013 & 2014 stats. Plus 2015 speculation after the jump...
Nothing like a surprise Laura Dern nomination to brighten your day!
2013 - The Wolf of Wall Street broke big late into the race, and thus Jonah Hill didn't get any nominations before Oscar named him a Best Supporting Actor.
2014 - Last year actually had three "out-of-nowhere" nominees. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) in Best Actor, Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in Best Actress, and Laura Dern (Wild) in Best Supporting Actress.
This trend suggests we will get at least one such surprise (happy or otherwise depending on your tastes) this year, but who will it be?
The BAFTA nominations will be announced this coming Friday by Stephen Fry and Gugu Mbatha-Raw. The BAFTAs usually bring a couple of surprises, so some of the people we;re speculating about here won't be such left of field choices if they show up there. But here are a list of likeliest possibilities to find Oscar's favor without precursor support.
Joan Allen (Room) - If there's gathering momentum for the film it could only help Allen, who is a previously-nominated veteran in a beloved film just like Jacki Weaver was back in 2012.
Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) - There's been a lot of talk about the Spotlight guys cancelling each other out at the Globes and SAG, but Supporting Actor is a wild enough category in terms of disagreements that there could easily be room for either of them. The question, of course, is which one? Mark Ruffalo has the showiest "Oscar clip" but Keaton brings the film the gravitas it needs to resonate.
Tom Hardy (The Revenant) - The last time DiCaprio had an Oscar-nominated role, he brought his co-star an unlikely Supporting Actor nomination. If Jonah Hill could get nominated, why not Hardy who's had quite a talked about year on movie screens?
Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) - This film keeps popping up when you least expect it (including a Supporting Actor nomination for Paul Dano at the Golden Globes). Supporting Actress is a potentially volatile category IF Oscar really absorbs the "category fraud" conversation that's been extra heated this year. If they do there's plenty of room for surprises.
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) - It is very likely that Rampling, being a respected British veteran, will get a BAFTA nomination in Best Actress. If she doesn't, however, she would be the perfect candidate for the kind of spot Marion Cotillard took last year -- a late year performance that's just too strong to ignore, prompting everyone who sees it to nod there heads in "of course" solidarity.
Has the recent trend convinced you? Who do you want to be the big surprise of January 14 OR who do you fear it might be?
Reader Comments (60)
I don't know if you can say this is unexpected (because SAG already did it), but I wouldn't be surprised if AMPAS double nominated Helen Mirren. I keep hearing from my parents and in-laws and relatives of their generation about how much they liked "Woman in Gold." And the Academy is full of people their age. Perhaps this is an over-generalization, but it still wouldn't surprise me.
Elizabeth Banks, Michael Caine and Tom Courtenay are my bets for surprises. Banks deserves to win. Oscar Isaac deserves a nom but will be snubbed. Michael B Jordan and Charlotte Rampling will be nommed and these are not surprises.
SUPPORTING ACTOR is where we’re going to get our “Out-of-nowhere" nominee(s). There's 3 open slots that could feasibly go to ANY of the 9 guys below. Currently, I think this may be the list in order of probability…
Mark Rylance (lock)
Sylvester Stallone (very likely)
Jacob Tremblay (beloved film/ will get #1 placements/ adorable at parties)
Tom Hardy (Leo factor/ Dec. toy release/ had a big year)
Christian Bale (highly respected/ Dec. toy release)
Idris Elba (Netflix has campaign *relentlessly*/ pressure to diversify/ precursors)
Michael Shannon (precursors/ lead role)
Mark Ruffalo (the loudest of the ensemble)
Michael Keaton (Birdman goodwill/ NYFCC prize)
Paul Dano (could get #1 placements/ he got the Globe nom)
Benicio Del Toro (longshot but not impossible)
I so wish Emily Blunt could be the surprise in Best Actress. She's 100% of why Sicario works on the story/human level (it is also technically very good, I just mean apart from that).
Please Please Please let it be Ian McKellen for Best Actor. And Elizabeth Banks getting in for Best Supporting Actress would tickle my fancy, too.
Claran
I've got bad news for you, Phoenix is not on the list of eligible films. Distributors probably didn't bother doing the paperwork (a la Second Mother)
I think years that lack a strong consensus might be favorite in terms of following the Oscar race. Every category truly seems in flux, and it's been great to read so many analytical pieces on how SAG, the Globes and the most influential critic groups help point a way through the fog. I think once the rest of the Guilds chime in we will truly have a better idea of where everyone stands, especially the Producers and Directors.
That said, I think there very well could be at least three surprises come nomination morning:
1. Jennifer Lawrence will squeeze into the Best Actress field somehow. Hollywood adores her and she has had a highly visible year. Who gets left out? Charlotte Rampling and Lily Tomlin for one. I have a sneaking suspicion that Blanchett will be our oldest nominee amongst the lead Actresses this year.
2. Another Jennifer, this time of the Jason Leigh variety, will sneak into the supporting field. This will most likely be at the detriment of Joan Allen and Jane Fonda's chances. I could also see McAdams getting in for that coveted first Oscar nomination if Spotlight ends up being beloved industry wide as opposed to being the other critic's pet ( the first being Mad Max: FR).
3.Christian Bale. Although it took the Academy until 2010 finally fall in love with Bale, they fell head over heels, awarding him his first Oscar for his first nomination. As soon as he delivered his next awardable performance in a high buzz film (American Hustle), they slapped him with another, his first lead Actor nod. My gut tells me that The Big Short will net him a second Supporting Actor nomination (his third overall) on it's way to a not too shabby pile of nominations. This nudges out Jacob Tremblay by my guess, whose chances at the nomination have been overestimated in my opinion.
Outside of the acting categories, I'm sure we are in for a unique and unexpected list of nominees overall. The suspense is terrible, I hope it lasts.
Laura Dern, Jacki, Weaver, Maggie Gyllenhaal immediately come to mind as shockers from the past few years. Supporting Actress likes to throw curveballs. Marcia Gay Harden and Marisa Tomei are two of my favorite winners in this category, and neither of them had Globe nominations, or in Harden's case a SAG nod either. (Tomei predates SAG.)
I'd guess Joan Allen (hard to bet against a supportive mom in this category) or Kristen Stewart are strong contenders for a surprise, but if voters love CAROL and decide Rooney Mara is a lead, maybe there's a chance Sara Paulson could sneak in.
Nicole Kidman in Strangerland
Theron for MMFR. Not sure if that qualifies as "out of nowhere" but she hasn't received any big nods yet and I think the Mad Max love could push her in. Although, it really depends on how AMPAS categorises Vikander and Mara. If those two are considered supporting then it opens up Best Actress quite a lot.