by Nathaniel R
The National Board of Review, which regularly has a recency bias in their awardage has gone full tilt boogie into stanning for The Post, with a couple of honors for Phantom Thread, too, which were both most definitely among the very last things to screen. Neither opens until the tail end of the year. They gave The Post their top prize and both lead acting awards for the film's iconic stars Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep. That's unusual for NBR. The complete list of winners and commentary after the jump...
Film The Post
This is obviously a feather in the film's cap but it's not a good Oscar predictor. The last time the NBR had the same top film preference as Oscar was Slumdog Millionaire (2008). That said most of their winners go on to Best Picture nominations. In the past twenty years of this prize the only films that haven't moved on to Best Picture nominations were Gods and Monsters (1998), Quills (2000), and A Most Violent Year (2014)... the latter two amongst the last things screened if you want a pattern for how they choose. haha. They REALLY love whatever they've just watched.
Director Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Directorial Debut Jordan Peele, Get Out
Their Best Director award is often unexpected. The winner has, statistically about a 50% chance of being Oscar nominated. Of the last 10 years of this prize it's literally 50/50 split as to who goes on to a nomination -- I wish I could give Gerwig fans better news!
Actor Tom Hanks, The Post
Actress Meryl Streep, The Post
Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Supporting Actress Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Generally speaking -- very very generally speaking -- the NBR usually includes one longshot choice among their acting winners but not this year when all four are widely expected to be nominated at the Oscars.
OSCAR PREDICTIVE?
Of their last ten winners for Best Actress 4 missed Oscar nominations (usually they were apparent sixth placers though given the surprise!) and 2 won the Oscar.
Of their last ten winners for Best Actor 2 missed Oscar nominations and only 1 went on to win the Oscar.
Of their last ten winners for Supporting Actress 4 missed Oscar nominations and only 1 went on to win the Oscar
Of their last ten winners for Supporting Actor 2 missed Oscar nominations and 2 won the Oscar.
Breakthrough Performance Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Ensemble Get Out
Get Out is a wonderful decision for Ensemble but a smidgeon surprising given how bonkers they went for the all star The Post and the fact that it won another major prize and they usually like to spread the wealth to get all the studios to show up and pay for tables at their event.
Adapted Screenplay The Disaster Artist
Original Screenplay The Phantom Thread
Foreign Film Foxtrot (Israel)
Animated Film Coco
Documentary Jane
Adapted Screenplay isn't super competitive this year so maybe The Disaster Artist has a great shot. The Phantom Thread is up against pretty much every major Best Picture player if it wants a room at Oscar's screenplay table though.
Spotlight Award Gal Gadot and Patty Jenkins for Wonder Woman
Freedom of Expression Award John Ridley for his documentary Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992
Top Films Baby Driver, Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Downsizing, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, Logan, and Phantom Thread
Basically they give a "top 11" each year since their top ten doesn't include their #1 film. The only surprise here, given their recency bias and the fact that there's usually at least one "surprise" in their top ten is that Baby Driver and Logan took coveted spots while Best Picture hopefuls like The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, and Mudbound were shut out completely. (I don't recall any previous whispers that NBR is not fond of Netflix but they're totally absent here... even from the doc category, unless I'm forgetting something.
Top Independent Films
Beatriz at Dinner, Brigsby Bear, A Ghost Story, Lady Macbeth, Logan Lucky, Loving Vincent, Menashe, Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer, Patti Cake$, and Wind River
In this category they looked back earlier in the year for the most part. Happy result for Wind River which has been trying to rev back up Post-Weinstein
Top Foreign Films
A Fantastic Woman (Chile), Frantz (France), Loveless (Russia), Summer 1993 (Spain), and The Square (Sweden)
With the exception of Frantz, which is not eligible for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscar since France passed it over last season for Elle as their submission, the rest of these and the foreign film winner Foxtrot from Israel, are considered major threats to nominations in that category
Top Documentaries
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Brimstone & Glory, Eric Clapton: Life in 12 Bars, Faces Places, and Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of Isis
All of these films are on Oscar's long eligibility list for the Documentary Feature prize though previously only Abacus and Faces Places and their documentary winner Jane have made any headway with precursors