by Nathaniel R
A few days back David Poland asked the Gurus of Gold to predict the Globes and I became obsessed with the notion that I, Tonya would be the surprise heavyweight. I was pretty much alone in that with nearly the entire group thinking Lady Bird's got this in the bag (a couple of people think Get Out). I think my I Tonya prediction was more a product of my fear since the wildly positive response to the movie surprised me and sent me back for a second viewing which only strengthened my resolve that it's a) not good and b) highly problematic...
I guess we all have our off-consensus movies. This is one of mine. My problems start with its self-satifisfied format --which makes it at a cousin to the extremely stale mockumentary genre (in Meryl Streep's Prada voice 'Direct to camera interview punch-lines to more traditional scene work? Groundbreaking.) even though it's a true story. Sort of. But what I most dislike about it is its glib dismissal of Nancy Kerrigan. I think it makes the movie pretty facile because it's easy to rewrite history and redeem criminals if you pretend their victims don't exist! Oddly a lot of people have a similar problem with the sympathy for the devil (aka Sam Rockwell) in Three Billboards but don't have it with I Tonya even though both movies abstract their victims completely.
ANYWAY... Enough about I Tonya. Some people love it. To each their own!
I'm so curious who you think will win these two categories (since they seem like tough calls). Vote!
As for that Gurus of Globe chart. I'm mostly okay with my other Globe predictions which are decidedly of the "spread the wealth" variety: The Post, del Toro, Hawkins, Franco, Oldman, Dafoe, The Square, Coco, Shape of Water in score, Lady Bird in screenplay and "This is Me" in song. But maybe that spread the wealth guess is a result of really not knowing where things will fall. The only predictions among those I feel confident about are del Toro, Hawkins, Desplat and Coco. And the fact that I'm so confident about my three wins guesswork for Shape of Water probably makes it silly that I'm predicting The Post to take Best Drama. But what can you do. It's the Globes. They're very hard to predict! Like, why am I predicting Willem Dafoe when that's the only place they went for The Florida Project (indicating not much support overall). Some gurus are predicting Frances McDormand to take Best Actress Drama due to Three Billboards very large nomination count but they've passed her over in other years when she's had that winning feeling (Fargo and Olive Kitteridge)