Ah... April. It's that time of year when we inevitably make fools of ourselves looooong in advance by predicting the Oscar nominations nearly a full year ahead of time. The 91st Oscars won't be held for another 314 days (February 24th, 2019 if you must know) but it's time we started building the Oscar charts.
First up, Original & Adapted Screenplay guesswork. Unlike last season when the Oscars were ALL about the original titles (seriously it was a strange but delightful year since Academy voters generally prefer material based on something pre-existing) this year looks like a return to the more usual modus operandi. At least at this distance. The films that look "most likely to..." reap Oscar nominations on paper are Adapted titles again. It's probably foolish to bank on directors Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle ruling shoulder to shoulder againin 2018 the way they did in 2016 with Moonlight and La La Land (that sort of consecutive success and symmetry in such quick succession isn't common), but at the same time it's hard to resist the notion of both the inspiring biopic First Man (with Ryan Gosling playing Neil Armstrong) and a dramatic James Baldwin adaptation from two of our most important young directors being films that will seize Oscar's imagination.
Do check out the new charts and share your own hunches the comments please. The original titles of course we know much less about though we're very intrigued by several of them given the names or topics involved. We're especially pleased to notice that Nicole Holofcener, one of the industry's most gifted and unique voices, has not one but two screenplays this year (the adaptations Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Land of Steady Habits) so we hope both films are great because it's long long past time that Oscar noticed her!
P.S. If you're wondering why I'm not including Martin Scorsese's The Irishman in the predictions, please note that we've been burned with predictions literally every single time we've expected one of his epics to arrive on time. This one isn't technically slated until 2019 so we aren't as optimistic as other pundits that it will be done early. I mean where are people getting this crazy hope that Marty will think he's Clint Eastwood this time and speed through the filmmaking process? Marty & Thelma generally take their sweet time in the editing bay. Yes, sometimes they take more than a year in post.