Will the Academy's 512 wide director's branch go their own way this week while balloting for their nominations, or will they just co-sign what the Globes and the DGA said (i.e. Cooper, Cuarón, Farrelly, Lee, and McKay)? BAFTA, for all its myriad problems of trying to be part of the Oscar race rather than keep its own uniquely British identity, actually gave us a possibly best case scenario (i.e. Cooper, Cuarón, Lee, Pawlikowski, and Lanthimos)...
I've come to believe that there are only two true locks, Alfonso Cuarón and Spike Lee, both of whom would be strong contenders if the films were released in any other year, too, given their filmographies and reputations and previous Oscar history, both a lot of it and far-too-little-and-everyone-knows-it, respectively. Bradley Cooper, Adam McKay, and Peter Farrelly, are all vulnerable in different ways: Cooper because the film is a romantic drama which often gives Oscar pause because they're so 'manly'-movie focused; McKay because the film is divisive; Farrelly due to a bumpy season with noisy vocal detractors.
That said, the DGA nominations suggest that they're also definitely formidable contenders for the coveted Oscar nomination. But this is what's important to remember always during awards season: the Academy voting populace is much smaller and much different than the guilds or and has no overlap with the other precursors in terms of voters (like the Globes, critics awards, etcetera). The DGA represents 16,000 or so directors and assistant directors so Oscar's 512 voting directors are but a tiny fraction of the DGA equation. Oscar's directing branch generally ditches a DGA choice for one of their own (and famously ditched 3 of the choices in 2012, their most iconoclastic year this century as previously discussed). For the time being I've chosen to randomly select McKay as the one who gets the chop and Lanthimos as the more idiosyncratic choice of the Director's branch.
Part of me wanted to predict a surprise from Pawlikowski of Chazelle along with Lanthimos both of whom are right in the wheelhouse of what the director's branch sometimes goes for (foreign masters and ambitious technical achievements, respectively). The trouble is that Alfonso Cuarón satisifies both of those impulses and has received the lion's share of attention. In the end I've opted to just stick with Lanthimos under career momentum reasoning. His reputation has been building for years and The Favourite is already his biggest hit ($20 million and growing) with plenty of steam still left in its release. What's more he accomplished that without losing even a fraction of his own peculiar voice... even though he didn't write the screenplay this time.
It's more than possible that Lanthimos won't make it, of course, but if he doesn't he'll be "overdue" next time around. Oscar is a continuum, you see, with past, present, and future all in play. In fact, of the director's who are likely to be passed over this year, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) would also benefit in this way. All three of Coogler's films (Fruitvale Station, Creed, Black Panther) have been very well received by audiences and critics so it's only a matter of time before Oscar comes around. Here's the director chart.
Now watch the Director's branch throw another 2012 our way. And they might (if Cuarón and Lee are hogging too many ballots, intense and very small fandoms could give us the other three nominees in which case all bets are off) Stay tuned!