We’re less than two weeks from the Emmy nominations announcement, and voting has officially closed. We have plenty of information now, including who’s on the ballot and how many nominees there will be in each category. Before we unveil our final predictions next week, let’s address some of the major unknowns and how they could play out across the board.
Just how well will frontrunners Succession and Schitt’s Creek do? Most prognosticators expect that these two shows could win the top prizes, with nominations at least are guaranteed. But, looking to last year, neither actually performed all that well in other categories...
It’s still hard to understand how the much-lauded HBO ensemble drama didn’t land a single acting nomination last year, and SAG shut the entire cast out again for season two earlier this year. Brian Cox won the Golden Globe and Jeremy Strong won the Critics Choice Award, but neither actor was even nominated for the other prize, suggesting that awards voters aren’t solidly behind any single performer in the show. Anywhere between two and five regular players are expected to be honored this time around, but the statistics are still disquieting. The Canadian comedy, on the other hand, finally broke through last year for its fifth season, though it earned only three nominations overall. With expanded supporting lineups, it’s probable that Dan Levy and Annie Murphy get in this time, but this situation, where a show is only invited to the party late in its run, is most reminiscent of two previous series – Friday Night Lights and The Americans. Both of those won their lead actors a farewell prize but never won the top award or saw anyone but their two main stars nominated. That said, the fields are more open this year than ever before, and so that trend isn’t as likely to repeat itself.
What shows won’t be nominated for Best Drama Series? In our first Emmy post of the season, we looked at the fact that there are eleven shows competing for what at that time was seven slots and has since been expanded to eight. Now that they’ve all finished airing, we have a better sense of which shows are the leaders. Succession, Ozark, The Crown, and Better Call Saul all feel safe. But after that, it gets murkier, and there’s no more clarity than when we first analyzed the category. Can Killing Eve and Pose repeat after just one previous nomination? What about The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, and Westworld, which all had very strong showings for their second seasons before they took a year off to sit out the previous Emmy cycle? Or Big Little Lies, which was one of the only shows to score top bids from both the Golden Globes and SAG for its second season? And then there’s This Is Us, which most believe will be snubbed after consistent showings three seasons in a row – the only series currently in the running to have achieved that distinction. Pose might have an added edge due to its content and recent release on Netflix, while Stranger Things and Big Little Lies may have faded too much from memory (The Handmaid’s Tale, which also aired last summer, recently released a trailer for season four, which could help), and Killing Eve doesn’t have the same buzz it once did. That leaves This Is Us or Westworld as likeliest to also be left off, and we’ll put the odds on the latter missing out right now.
What shows will be nominated for Best Comedy Series? Unlike the extremely overcrowded drama race, comedy is considerably more open. That was the case when there were going to be seven nominees, and now eight feels like extra – provided that the new slot goes to something worthwhile and not just a past nominee like Modern Family. We do expect The Good Place, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Schitt’s Creek back after last year, and Curb Your Enthusiasm aired again, so it’s on the list too. Dead to Me is likely to make the cut, as is Ramy, both for their second seasons after barely registering with voters last year. The Kominsky Method seemed like a good bet even after it got snubbed last year, but no one seems to be talking about it. Alternatively, Better Things and Insecure are two great shows that have only landed lead actress nominations in the past and could make solid inclusions. One of our favorites, The Great, wasn’t on our radar when we initially made our predictions, but having seen it, it’s now a good dark horse. Run, on the other hand, felt like a good bet before it premiered. Following its recent cancellation, that is now very unlikely. While nostalgia could bring back past nominees like Black-ish or GLOW, it’s possible that another departing show that took last season off, Silicon Valley, manages to show up for its farewell season, if only because it’s been nominated every time it’s been eligible.
Who makes the cut in the most competitive category – Best Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie? Well, no need to include the TV movie part – there are more than enough limited series contenders to fill this race two times over. Before the Emmy rules change, this category was going to have six nominees, but now it’s down to five. For the lead actor race, five feels like enough. But for the actresses, there are at least six women with a very strong shot, with one of our favorites, Shira Haas (Unorthodox), looking to unseat any one of them. Regina King (Watchmen) and Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America) are surely safe, but choosing from the two shows with double contenders – Unbelievable and Little Fires Everywhere – is going to be difficult since there can only be five nominees. Merritt Wever feels secure, while Kaitlyn Dever might get booted, and Kerry Washington could have a leg up on Reese Witherspoon. If Haas makes the cut, does that mean both Washington and Witherspoon miss out?
What shows will show up in a big way? Some series have previously over-performed with unforeseen strength, landing bids in a whole bunch of categories when only a few were predicted. Take Fleabag last year, which dominated after zero recognition for its first season, or Killing Eve, which outpaced its season one take with a much bigger haul for season two. We know that either Hollywood or Mrs. America could dominate the limited series supporting races, and that The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel stands to rack up more acting bids than ever before. But what will join them? Our best guess is Ramy, which could, like Fleabag, take enthusiasm for its star and parlay that into supporting bids for two of our favorite standouts, Hiam Abbass and May Calamawy, and maybe even a couple supporting actors, including Mahershala Ali. Ozark could also get a lot of its cast nominated, as could Succession, if our doubts above don’t turn into reality. The other show with the potential to score across the board is new entry The Morning Show, with a large cast full of impressive turns that could be roundly endorsed by voters. And, though we don’t think it will happen, veteran variety series Saturday Night Live might benefit from expanded supporting fields with more representatives from its cast cited.
What shows are we completely underestimating? This question is probably easiest since we have a few distinct possibilities. The Outsider was well-received and boasts an awards-friendly cast including past Emmy winner Ben Mendelsohn and recent Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo. The Mandalorian was the first big Disney Plus show, and it had a huge fanbase talking about it for weeks. If Apple TV Plus gets invited to the party, why shouldn’t a juggernaut like Disney for its new streaming service? We weren’t too sure about Space Force back when we initially assessed the comedy races since it hadn’t premiered yet, and we’re still pretty neutral about it. That doesn’t mean it won’t get nominated, since Steve Carell is everywhere these days and voters will likely want to get their licks in with any fare that parodies our current government. We haven’t heard about Euphoria or Mindhunter in a while, but they were very well-regarded when they aired. Maybe the timing of season two of The Politician will bolster its chances, and will anyone remember Living with Yourself? Could voters laud Hunters despite its extreme violence? And, because this is The Film Experience and we have to defer to Nathaniel sometimes, we should note that Normal People, which he loved, might just manage to make the cut in a few crowded categories.
Who or what is going to get snubbed? Last year, the biggest omissions were Golden Globe winners Richard Madden (Bodyguard) and comedy series The Kominsky Method. Homecoming was also nowhere to be found, and Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) didn’t get nominated once again. It’s hardest to predict the surprises that will get left off, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to anticipate them! Presuming that Hollywood or Little Fires Everywhere don’t deliver high nomination totals isn’t all that crazy and wouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Betting on zero nominations despite three submissions for the abovementioned Reese Witherspoon is definitely bolder. An interesting situation we could foresee is that, after three consecutive bids, This Is Us costars Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia are left off in favor of Justin Hartley, who’s competing for the first time in the lead race.
What questions do you have ahead of nominations, and what are your answers to ours?