Major Emmy Rule Changes

by Abe Fried-Tanzer

It’s been a big week for awards announcements. First the Oscars were postponed to April with an expanded eligibility window, and now the Emmys are making sweeping modifications that will affect every single category.

The deadline for contenders in all categories was June 5th, and while we won’t see ballots until July 2nd, it’s clear that the number of submissions are way up from last year by 15%. What that means is that both Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series will have eight nominees (up from seven) and all of the series acting categories will be based on the number of contenders on the ballot. It’s a lot to process, but we’ll do our best…

For performer categories, the new rules mandate the following submissions to nominations ratios:

1-19 submissions: A sliding scale between 0 and 4 nominations
20-80: 5
81-160: 6
161-240: 7
More than 240: 8

There used to be a rule that dictated that if the fifth and sixth top-voted contenders were within 2% of each other, that created a tie resulting in six nominees. That’s no longer the case, though I suspect that an actual tie would still result in extra nominees. Corresponding categories, like comedy supporting actor and comedy supporting actress, will have the same number of nominees, though it’s not clear which number would be used if one had 230 submissions and another had 250, for example.

At this time last year, Paul Sheehan from Goldderby went through and added up the totals from the past four years, which is very helpful in understanding what these new rules practically would have meant. Only drama supporting actor and drama supporting actress have exceeded 240 submissions every year, while the corresponding comedy categories fell just short of that in 2019 but eclipsed it in 2018. The only category that actually produced eight nominees recently was comedy supporting actress in both 2019 and 2018, and under these new rules, that would have only happened in 2018.

As someone who revels in the statistics and year-to-year comparisons of awards races, this new ever-shifting scale initially seems like a real headache. First it was six acting nominees and seven series contenders, and now it’s impossible to track. The Oscars only changed their Best Picture race to include between five and ten nominees, but this is every single category, and they might go up or down each year. It’s also a shame to think of the performers who scored sixth, seventh, or eighth in previous years and didn’t get in (John Krasinski might have been nominated for every season of The Office, for instance, since we know he used to place in the ten-wide finalists list).

But there is plenty of good in this news. Ultimately, it means more people have the chance to be recognized for their great work on shows. The ratios also mean that supporting players have a better shot to be honored, which makes sense since there are inarguably more of them on television (maybe Rhea Seehorn can actually get nominated now!). It’s also hard to argue that there aren’t more shows than ever before – I know that I personally watched more than 150 scripted series premieres this past season. Why shouldn’t we be citing more great work if the options are so much more plentiful? Also, given the reality of an awards show that might be virtual, the more clips the better!

We still won’t know some category placements for sure until ballots drop on July 2nd, and, correspondingly, how many nominees will actually be in each category, but given some recent updates and the chance to watch some of our predicted series that aired in May, here are our updated predictions that take into account what we expect to be the total number of submissions. Click on the category headings for our earlier analysis, most of which is still relevant.

• Best Series, Drama

  • Better Call Saul

  • The Crown

  • The Handmaid’s Tale

  • The Morning Show

  • Ozark

  • Succession

  • This Is Us

  • Westworld

• Best Actress, Drama

  • Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

  • Olivia Colman (The Crown)

  • Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)

  • Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)

  • Laura Linney (Ozark) 

  • Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

  • Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)

• Best Actor, Drama

  • Jason Bateman (Ozark)

  • Sterling K. Brown (This is Us)

  • Brian Cox (Succession)

  • Tobias Menzies (The Crown)

  • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

  • Billy Porter (Pose)

  • Aaron Paul (Westworld)

• Best Supporting Actress, Drama

  • Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)

  • Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)

  • Julia Garner (Ozark)

  • Janet McTeer (Ozark)

  • Thandie Newton (Westworld)

  • Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) 

  • Sarah Snook (Succession)

  • Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies)

• Best Supporting Actor, Drama

  • Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)

  • Steve Carell (The Morning Show)

  • Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)

  • Kieran Culkin (Succession)

  • David Harbour (Stranger Things)

  • Josh O’Connor (The Crown)

  • Tom Pelphrey (Ozark) 

  • Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale)

• Best Series, Comedy

  • Better Things

  • Curb Your Enthusiasm

  • Dead to Me

  • The Good Place

  • The Kominsky Method

  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

  • Ramy

  • Schitt’s Creek 

• Best Actress, Comedy

  • Pamela Adlon (Better Things)

  • Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)

  • Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)

  • Catherine O'Hara (Schitt’s Creek) 

  • Issa Rae (Insecure)

  • Merritt Wever (Run)

• Best Actor, Comedy

  • Don Cheadle (Black Monday)

  • Domhnall Gleeson (Run)

  • Ted Danson (The Good Place) 

  • Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) 

  • Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) 

  • Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek) 

  • Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

• Best Supporting Actress, Comedy

  • Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place)

  • Betty Gilpin (GLOW)

  • Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) 

  • Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)

  • Megan Mullally (Will & Grace)

  • Annie Murphy (Schitt's Creek)

• Best Supporting Actor, Comedy

  • Mahershala Ali (Ramy)

  • Louie Anderson (Baskets)

  • Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)

  • Sterling K. Brown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Nicholas Hoult (The Great)

  • Dan Levy (Schitt's Creek)

  • Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) 

  • Michael Zegen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

• Best Limited Series

  • Hollywood

  • Little Fires Everywhere

  • Mrs. America

  • Unbelievable

  • Unorthodox

  • Watchmen

• Best Made for TV Movie

  • American Son

  • Bad Education

  • El Camino

  • Patsy & Loretta

  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

• Best Actress, Movie or Miniseries

  • Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America)

  • Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable)

  • Shira Haas (Unorthodox)

  • Regina King (Watchmen)

  • Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere)

  • Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)

• Best Actor, Movie or Miniseries

  • David Corenswet (Hollywood)

  • Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

  • Jeremy Irons (Watchmen)

  • Hugh Jackman (Bad Education)

  • Aaron Paul (El Camino)

  • Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much is True)

• Best Supporting Actress (Movie or Miniseries

  • Uzo Aduba (Mrs. America)

  • Rose Byrne (Mrs. America)

  • Toni Collette (Unbelievable)

  • Allison Janney (Bad Education)

  • Margo Martindale (Mrs. America)

  • Sarah Paulson (Mrs. America)

  • Jean Smart (Watchmen)

• Best Supporting Actor (Movie or Miniseries

  • Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Watchmen)

  • Joe Mantello (Hollywood)

  • Dylan McDermott (Hollywood)

  • Tim Blake Nelson (Watchmen)

  • Jim Parsons (Hollywood)

  • John Slattery (Mrs. America)

  • John Turturro (The Plot Against America)

What do you think of all these rule changes, and what prospective nominees will benefit the most?

Comments

[Cash]

For having so many shows to choose from, those nomination predictions still feel like they're all for the same shows. Will more nominations just means more for the same handful of shows instead of spreading the love?

[adri]

Eight Acting nominees is insanity!

[PP]

Hollywood is such a s**it. The only nomination deserved would be the one for Joe Mantello.
Hope to see Devs jumping up somewhere

[Peggy Sue]

What Adri said.

[Volvagia]

@adri, @peggy sue-

I tend to agree. It lessens the worth of the nomination when everybody and their mother is nominated. “Every one gets a trophy” mentality for sure.

[James]

Not “everyone gets a trophy” according to these predictions. Reese Witherspoon winds up snubbed for Big Little Lies, The Morning Show and most unreasonably for Little Fires Everywhere..

[beyaccount]

It’s only “snubbed” if she deserved the nomination for any of those. Hot take: She doesn’t!

[Ryan T.]

I saw the best take on this. If these extra nominations go to exciting, deserving performances and shows then YES! If these just means more lazy, boring, mediocre choices then NO! We won't know until nomination day.

[Allegra]

Let's not nominate Kerry Washington for horrendous performances this year.

[Carlos]

Are 10-wide finalist lists a thing? Didn't realise that was something publicly available!

[JW]

Agree with Ryan T - if more nominations spreads the wealth so we can get unsung contenders and deserving shows (Normal People, Unorthodox) nominated - all for it. Or if it helps supporting actors on popular shows get nominated (Noah Reid, Emily Hampshire) alongside their buzzier co-stars - that would be great too.

[Troy H.]

If those were to wind up being the actual nominations, it doesn't seem like the new rules would diversify things in terms of the number of programs represented. It essentially would be more actors from the same handful of shows the voters already prefer, in which case there's no sense in expanding the field.

[Bhuray]

If there was room for:

Mj Rodriguez - POSE
Christina Hendricks - GOOD GIRLS
Reese Witherspoon - BIG LITTLE LIES (That monologue on stage to everybody at the school, definitely deserves her at least a nod. I even think she should have won over Nicole for the first season.)

in Best Leading Actress in a Drama series, I would be so happy!

[Juan Carlos]

Underestimate THE HANDMAID'S TALE at your own risk.

[Abe]

@Carlos the finalist lists (actually 15 for acting and 10 for series) used to be a thing back in the mid-2000s. It was exciting but also gave false hope for shows like The Wire and Battlestar Galactica that didn’t ultimately end up getting nominated.

@Bhuray I also agree that Witherspoon’s best performance was in Big Little Lies but I don’t think she has a shot for that role.

@Juan Carlos I’m struggling with leaving Handmaid’s Tale off in a bunch of categories and Stranger Things since I think they’re both still strong and might attract just as much as attention as the last time they were on.

[Bhuray]

What about Claire Danes for the final season of HOMELAND. This is a performance I will continue to praise even if every season wasn't up to her level of excellence.

[Working stiff]

Run and Hollywood are both likely snubs, and don't count out Tracey Ullman and James Marsden for supporting nominations.

[Luke]

I think they should do away with shortlists and give every show on television Emmy nominations because that's where it is headed.