Emmy Watch: Who are the Supporting Actor Drama Contenders?
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 7:00PM 
Giancarlo Esposito in "Better Call Saul"by Abe Fried-Tanzer
Our Emmy punditry continues with Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. This category has plenty of contenders, but unlike the corresponding female fields, there are more past nominees that aren’t eligible than ones that are. The end of Game of Thrones means three opens slots, and Michael Kelly is also out of the running since House of Cards is (mercifully) over.
What’s especially interesting about this category is that, because of season-skipping, character departures, and category switches, there’s actually only one nominee from the past four years who didn’t earn a repeat bid the next time he was eligible. That happens to be Jon Voight (Ray Donovan), who is indeed a very unlikely possibility this year for the final season of his series after three years of missing out. He’s way behind a number of other actors…
The past four years:
Resurfacing on the ballot from two years ago after a season off the air, we have one sure thing. Even if his show falters and misses the top category (as we’re predicting it will), David Harbour (Stranger Things) is in. I don’t think that’s necessarily true for Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale) or Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), who don’t have much buzz despite still being well-regarded. Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale), who picked up a guest acting trophy for the “hanging episodes” of his show that aired last summer (when the show was otherwise ineligible), is a much better bet now that he’s considered a supporting member of the cast.
Two shows that took last season off that could stage a return to the race are The Crown and Westworld, albeit for different actors. Season three of The Crown has a whole new cast as the show jumps ahead in time, and, provided he’s placed in supporting, Josh O’Connor is a good bet for his portrayal of Prince Charles. It’s hard to know who from Westworld will be classified in this race – at this point, I’d bet new cast member and Emmy favorite Aaron Paul will be, while past nominee Jeffrey Wright, last nominated in the lead acting race, will remain there instead. It’s also worth mentioning Alexander Skarsgard (Big Little Lies), who won the supporting actor prize in the limited series or TV movie race in 2017 and who may now contend for a reduced role in season two (but I wouldn’t count on it).
New to the Field?
To map out the rest of the competition, let’s look at returning shows with actors who haven’t previously been nominated. Succession made it into the Best Drama Series race last year without any of its cast cited, and two-time Golden Globe nominee Kieran Culkin seems like the best bet, with Matthew Macfadyen also possible. The only member of the Pearson immediate family to not have been nominated, Justin Hartley (This Is Us) might finally break through this year after two Critics Choice nominations, and there’s a slight possibility his costar Asante Blackk, also cited by the Critics Choice Association, could get in, but I think he’ll fare better in the guest category. Tom Pelphrey (Ozark) is another new contender from a returning show.
There are a couple actors from new shows to consider also. At the top of the list is Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), who was nominated by SAG and won the Critics Choice prize. Steve Carell (The Morning Show) was also on the SAG list, and I think he’ll get nominated if he’s placed in this race rather than the lead one. Jason Bateman (The Outsider), an expected inclusion in the lead acting race, might end up as a double acting nominee.
So, where does this leave us? There may not be many returning contenders, but a number of new ones means that this category is actually pretty overstuffed, which is good for talent on TV and bad for individual chances for each prospective nominee. I feel like I have to predict three-time Emmy winner Paul, who may incidentally be campaigned in lead, and I don’t feel good about guessing that Hartley misses out yet again. But someone has to be left off, barring the inclusion of a seventh nominee again.
Predictions:
- Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
- Steve Carell (The Morning Show)
- Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
- David Harbour (Stranger Things)
- Aaron Paul (Westworld)
- Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale)
Which actors do you think will make the cut this time around?
ALL DISCUSSIONS THUS FAR
Reader Comments (28)
I think Tony Dalton ought to be nominated for his charismatic but rather terrifying performance as Lalo in Better Call Saul. Giancarlo Esposito had very little to do this season, and Jonathan Banks spent the whole time being ultra grouch.
And slightly off-topic but seriously... WHEN will the outstanding Rhea Seehorn get nominated for this series. She is better than anyone else on TV at the moment.
Category fraud in Emmys as well: how can Justin Hartley be campaigned in Supporting whilst Sterling K Brown continues to be nominated in Lead?
(Unless his is a significantly lesser role in the most recent season, which I haven't watched yet (due to illogical delays in Australia).)
Nobody's role is reduced on This Is Us but much like Game of Thrones, certain cast members have the emotional arch. Randall Pearson, from day one, has been the emotional heart stone. He's had most of the heavyweight with his family and he always has separate stories away from the other two. He doesn't rely much on the "family" aspect outside of his wife and kids.
@Luke we'll get to Seehorn in the next post! I'm just worried she won't be nominated yet again...
I also think that, unfortunately, Emmy voters don't seem to be paying too much attention to who they're nominating for which season and episodes when it comes to Better Call Saul and Breaking Bad. Giancarlo Esposito should have won over Aaron Paul the year they were nominated together, Dean Norris should have been nominated for the final season, and Michael McKean had much more to do than Jonathan Banks for the first couple seasons of Better Call Saul. This year, they're all worthy, but I hope that Seehorn finally gets nominated.
Abe, I suspect you are right. They're just checking off names, like when they nominated Ellen Burstyn for that 10 second cameo back in the '00s. I am still angry Michael McKean didn't get nominated for playing Chuck, one of the great TV characterisations of the past 20 years.
Morgan: again, I preface this by clarifying that I haven't seen the most recent season.
But I disagree with your assessment on who has the central emotional arc. I remember Season 3 in particular, where Kevin had to deal with his alcoholism, his uncle, tracking down his father's past in Vietnam and his relationship with Zoe. Now I am happy to agree that the Randall storylines were more interesting, but Kevin was just as much in the forefront.
Abe, enjoying your Emmy articles...thanks for all the time you put into them. I would be very shocked if Billy Crudup doesn't win in this category this year.
Ozark is growing in esteem and Succession will be a much bigger player this year. They will fill some of these slots. Though I think Banks, Whitford, Crudup and Harbour will make up the rest.
In spite of the wisdom and insight written here, I am still holding on to an insubstantial hope that Holt McCallany will be nominated for his role as FBI Investigator Bill Tench on Mind Hunter. The storylines for the character were rich. McCallany was strong in his efforts to convey quietly the stress this man was under at home and at work. It’s McCallany who kept us riveted to season two.
I think the safest are Banks and Esposito, with Harbour and Whitford in there even though their shows are waning. I'd argue though that Tom Pelphrey could be a frontrunner to win it - Ozark S3 got a big bump from isolation and his character gets an incredibly fully-realised arc and massive range all in one season. A monologue from his character in one episode went to the front page of reddit as an appreciation post for his acting. I think he'll be in.
Billy Crudup is great in The Morning Show but I have little faith that voters will actually respond to it by and large, while Josh O'Connor is surprisingly barely in this season of The Crown. I give the edge to Kieran Culkin to sneak in on a Succession bump in buzz, while Chris Sullivan or Mandy Patinkin could slip in for the last spot. I suspect Aaron Paul might be run as a co-lead.
surely succession will be able to score at least on nomination in this category, right? this is supposed be their big breakthrough year, probably capped off by them winning drama series.
Agree with Duncan. Look at for Pelphrey from Ozark.
It was very much a "Whoa! Where did this guy come from?" performance
Emmy punditry is a great actor. His performance blows me out. Watch some of his best performances on your android device with morphtv app
I have a feeling Skarsgard will get nominated for BLL which would be gross because he does nothing in season 2. He probably has only ten minutes of screentime total across seven episodes.
I hope that Tom Pelphrey doesn'y get the Corey Stoll treatment for HOC season 1 because he was just as magnificent as Laura Linney was this most recent season. The challenge will be getting the nomination for him and if in he has to win.
I believe he will get in as the show is more popular than ever and has really benefited from Quarantine binging.
P.S. Josh O'Connor should be campaigned in guest this season as he only apperead in 4/10 episodes. He'd be an easy winner in that category and get the promotion to supporting in season 4 where he's sure to have even more to do.
Having just completed the third season of Ozark I thought Tom Pelphrey as Ben Davis was flat out amazing. His monologue in the cab was like a brilliant aria of crazed longing, of unfulfilment, and of an incipient tragedy he can't escape. This is the first time I have seen him but I was electrified by his intensity in the brief episodes of Season 3 that he was in. If not nominated in this category, maybe as a Guest Actor in a series or something. Ben Davis through Tom Pelphry is as heartbreaking to watch as he is unforgettable.
Matthew Macfayden is doing gods work as Tom in Succession! The levels of status that Tom is constantly fluctuating between depending on who he is interacting with is mind boggling. Ive never seen anything like it and Macfayden makes it look effortless. It would be an absolute travesty if any of these men kept him from getting a nomination. Excuse me for sounding hyperbolic, he’s just that good.
Tom Pelphrey has been playing this sort of character since Jonathan on Guiding Light where he won Emmys there. It's not stretch for him, but he's good on the show.
Josh O'Connor was my MVP for S3 of The Crown. Hopeful for his chances.
Would love a nom for Kieran Culkin, one of the most underrated presence on Succession.
I don' watch enough male-heavy TV to properly judge this category so my lineup would look like this:
JASON BATEMAN -Outsider
KEIRAN CULKIN - Succession
MATTHEW MCFAYDEN -Succession
DAVID HARBOUR - Stranger Things
leaving a spot open for if i catch up with any of thsee other series. I used to love Leonardo Nam on Westworld and since he's apparently back in the new season (i haveen't seen it yet) maybe he's worth checking. Billy Crudup is often really good so I'm happy he got a role that's winning him attention but I dont otherwise have any interest in The Morning Show.
It hasn't been confirmed yet, but as of right now STEVE CARELL and AARON PAUL are being campaigned as lead. So if those two are gone, then it feels like the six will be:
Jonathan Banks
Billy Crudup
Kieran Culkin
Bradley Whitford
David Harbour
Matthew Macfadyen
I really hope that Josh O'Connor will get a nomination - such a wonderful performance.
And Mandy Patinkin has been at his best in the final season of Homeland.
I haven't watched Ozark yet, but Tom Pelphrey is getting a lot of buzz as well.
Abe: My position on Better Call Saul? Supporting for Better Call Saul should have been a migrating nomination. Banks for S1 (Five-O), Mando for S2 (Nailed), McKean for S3 (Chicanery) and Fabian (Winner) for S4. I don't know who I'd pick for S5, but probably Tony Dalton, even if I don't know which episode.
The best (and the only good) episodes of The Crown S3 starred Josh O'Connor, therefore, I would love to see him with a nomination. Plus, I LOVED him in The Durrells.
@Fig- Right? I want to Mathew Macfadyen to win. His performance in S2 was BRILLIANT. (He is also very good in Quiz, coming up soon on US television.)
I think Crudup enters this one the front-runner but certainly would not be helped by Carell dropping down to Supporting (if that proves the case). Banks is the dark horse - had a terrific season on SAUL and he's a long-overdue veteran. Esposito hardly did a thing this season. Patinkin was solid and could totally get in for HOMELAND's final outing.
So glad to see so many others on the Matthew Macfadyen train! He is absolutely brilliant in Succession and completely deserves recognition (there were only a couple of us stanning for him here last year, so maybe all these mentions mean he has momentum this year).
Tony Dalton would be my second pick in this category, but I have to agree with Abe and Luke that their nominations from Better Call Saul do not make any sense; like others here, I still am not over Michael McKean's snub for Season 3, when he should have won. Rhea Seehorn better get nominated this year....
I hope Kieran gets a nomination. I really like Bradley Whitford and hope he does too but I still don't understand how he was allowed to compete for Guest last year but compete again in supporting this year for the same season? Emmy rules confuse me.
I also hope they put O'Connor in guest since he qualifies and would likely win there.
Agree with Luke!
TONY DALTON is one to the best villains ever in the Breaking Bad Universe . The range, and talent shown in every scene should be recognized by the Academy.
Banks is good, if you like that same old, Grumpy note the entire show.