Emmy Watch: Best Actress in a Drama
Saturday, April 11, 2020 at 7:00PM 
We’re looking at another Emmy Awards category today – Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series. All but two of last year’s nominees are eligible again.
The remaining nominees – defending champion Jodie Comer (Killing Eve), Sandra Oh (Killing Eve), Laura Linney (Ozark), Mandy Moore (This Is Us), and Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder) – will have to fight hard for their slots due to a major influx of contenders from shows that are once again in the running this year or in the running for the first time.
The past four years have gone like so...
Of the four series that took last season off and are now vying for a repeat Best Drama Series bid, the only one without a previously-nominated female lead is Stranger Things. If Winona Ryder wasn’t nominated for seasons one or two, a mention for season three, which debuted last summer, is extremely unlikely. There’s little question that two-time nominee Claire Foy will have her on-screen role grab another slot in this category for her replacement Olivia Colman (The Crown). Even more this year than ever before, Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld) is a strong contender due to her increased prominence and character makeover. And past winner Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) will almost definitely be back, even if her show somehow misses the top race.
Both Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies) and Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies) were nominated in 2016-2017 in the limited series or TV movie race. They’re both eligible here for the show’s second season in the regular series category. Kidman is a good bet, while Witherspoon is likelier to contend for her work on The Morning Show or in the limited series race for Little Fires Everywhere.
Newbies
Speaking of The Morning Show, an expected nominee here is past Emmy winner Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), who pulled off a surprise SAG victory over Colman and the rest of the field for her turn as a talk show host right at the center of a #metoo scandal. Barring a real shock, she’ll be in. Season two of Homecoming was just announced for a May 22 debut, and it’s possible that voters will like Janelle Monae’s lead turn more than Julia Roberts, who was snubbed along with the rest of the first season despite a strong Golden Globes showing last season. Zendaya (Euphoria) scored a bid from the Critics Choice Association and could crack this crowded field. In a surprise move earlier this week, Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida) saw her show switched to the drama race despite earning comedy nominations at the Globes and from the Critics Choice Association, which probably diminishes her chances since that race is much more open.
Newcomers aren’t the only threats in this category. The Critics Choice Association cited three performers from returning series who have yet to attract Emmy love. Christine Baranski (The Good Fight) earned her second nomination for a role that previously netted her six Emmy bids. Sarah Snook (Succession) and MJ Rodriguez (Pose) were also up for the second seasons of their shows. It’s also worth noting that both Homeland and Empire are ending this season. Danes received five consecutive nominations for her show, winning twice. Henson earned two bids. Both were last nominated in 2016.
So where does that leave us?
Out of last year’s seven Emmy nominees, exactly one – winner Jodie Comer – was nominated for any (and all, in her case) of the three major precursors (Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice). That means a lot of change is likely this year. Colman is a lock no matter what, and I have a hard time imagining Aniston being left off. While I know that Comer replaced Oh with every group that cited only Oh before, Emmy voters did honor Oh for the show’s second season, which makes me think they’ll both return this year. I also believe Wood will be back, as will Moss, which brings us to six nominees. It’s probably not smart, but to me that suggests that Linney finds herself snubbed, though it’s much likelier that this field gets expanded again to include more than six talented women. That also leaves off Kidman, Witherspoon x2, and Moore, any of whom could easily bump someone else.
Predictions:
- Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
- Olivia Colman (The Crown)
- Jodie Comer (Killing Eve)
- Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)
- Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
- Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)
Which actresses do you think will make the cut this year in this very tight race? Stay tuned for more Emmy coverage!
ALL DISCUSSIONS THUS FAR
Reader Comments (32)
Prayer circle that Othiefia Stoleman doesn’t win for her merely serviceable work on The Crown.
Linney was awfully good on season 3 of Ozark.
I think Ozark is growing in esteem especially with Bateman winning directing over GOT. Linney is ahead of Wood I think.
Tyler: "Otheifia Stoleman"? On pure performance quality, I don't necessarily disagree...if you're referring to McCarthy. But if this is a Glenn Close thing? Sorry. Removing the career honours angle entirely, she's third or MAYBE fourth place of that field. McCarthy, Aparicio and maybe even Gaga were better. Sure, Colman was...worse (sorry, that was stage acting)...but Close wouldn't have been a particularly good pick either, honestly. As for Colman in The Crown? Yeah, that was a glob of respectable nothingness. If it's six, I REALLY hope Linney stays and Colman misses.
As others have said, Linney is a safe bet. She's possibly one of the frontrunners judging by how much juicy material she has in s3, how well s2 did last year at the Emmys and how beloved she is by voters.
Early reviews of Killing Eve have been tepid. I'm wondering if it falls off this year.
I think Streep will be the only nominee for BLL. Kidman and definitely Witherspoon I doubt make it in.
I would never underestimate Viola.
Laura Linney is probably in. She's getting raves for season three (I haven't watched it yet).
Olivia Colman
Jennifer Anison
Elisabeth Moss
Laura Linney
Nicole Kidman
Jodie Comer
I feel like Sarah Snook, Evan Rachel Wood and Sandra Oh will just miss.
It's such a shame for Kirsten Dunst.
Joining in the chorus with everyone else - with Ozark's momentum from last season and Linney's greater spotlight this season, I'd keep an eye on her to not just make it in but potentially win.
I'd also say Sarah Snook has a good chance of sneaking in through the logjam.
Honestly - I'm expecting Jennifer Aniston to miss, a la Julia Roberts last year. The show is so hit or miss and she's not actually that spectacular in it. Newcomer shows often have a hard time, and with this many returning favourites from frontrunner shows, I don't think she can be assumed to be safe.
My bet is:
- Laura Linney
- Olivia Colman
- Jodie Comer
- Sandra Oh
- Elisabeth Moss
- Sarah Snook or Nicole Kidman
Laura Linney is amazing in season 3 Ozark, all seasons but this one especially. Can’t wait for new season of Killing Eve. Gave up on Westworld after the first season. I’ve never seen Handmaids or Morning Show.
Linney is in .
If Laura Linney doesn’t get in it will be a tragedy OMG. I was wowed
With 14 previous Emmy nominations, Edie Falco can easily be considered as highly regarded. While her new series has earned lukewarm reviews, Falco hasn't. The police drama, Tommy, is winning its time slot as ratings continue to grow weekly. I think Falco will earn CBS one of its few nominations this year.
No guts, no glory!
That predicted list is... lacking. Olivia Coleman will probably win regardless of the final list, but she hasn't been given even a quarter of what Claire Foy was given to do in either of her seasons (The Queen is so settled at this point in the series that she has little to play other than warmish authority). I think both Killing Eve and Handmaid's Tale are officially past their primes, even as the actresses keep pushing through what have become more ridiculous/implausible/repetitive plot lines. It would be a shame for them to pass on Mandy Moore's stellar season of work, or (The Lovely) Laura Linney. And while I can admit that the second season of Big Little Lies was ill-advised (though I enjoyed it way more than most), Kidman continued to deliver and had a conclusion to her storyline (courtroom showdown) that's like catnip to the Emmys.
@Volvagia: Close behind Gaga and Aparicio? You are full of it, as usual.
Rhea Seehorn in Better Call Saul or
Laura Linney in Ozark
Kidman has the star power (even if the other names are no slouches) and despite the muted response the industry still liked the show enough. HBO is the strongest network when it comes to prestige.
Same as in the Drama Series, but if Killing Eve doesn't deliver enough to turn around what's perceived as dwindling buzz it won't have enough punch to get two women here. Especially with this competition. Despite the win, I would bet on Oh's familiar name getting in over Comer.
If Killing Eve is losing buzz, Ozark is gaining it. Season 3 has received best reviews yet, it's likely looking at an even stronger year. Linney even has the perfect momentum you need, especially after you haven't won for your first season and it gets harder to do so for a latter season: increased prominence in the show, better reviews and a show that's only gained popularity.
I would actually bet my money on Linney winning it this year.
Admittedly though it's a very, very tough category to predict this year! Colman and Linney aside, I think we're just as likely to see an expanded field of 8 or any surprising snub!
@James,
I 100% support your NGNG pick! I like the show enough (though it can get repetitive structure wise), and Edie Falco delivers very good work on “Tommy”.
Does anyone know if Suranne Jones in “Gentleman Jack” was eligible this year or last year? She gave one of my favourite performances last year.
Laura Linney Is going to win. She owned Ozark season 3.
But Volvagia, don’t you see how like totally fetch Tyler is? I think you should like y’know totally acknowledge how fetching fetch his comment is and liketotallylike is.
.....so fetch.
Since no one has said anything about it yet, I’ll be the first: Laura Linney is possibly going to upset win in spectacular Wendy fashion. Ozark S3 was fucking awesome. Can Janet McTeer and Julia Garner tie for Supporting Actress too?
You're insane.
Laura Linney is winning the Emmy.
Wood gets the boot, because Westworld is losing steam as it progresses.
Yeah I agree with some of the other and think this is Laura Linney's year. She was masterful in season 3. Would love a "surprise" nom Zendaya, she is fantastic in Euphoria and would love to see her continue to stretch herself with challenging roles
Laura Kinney...mic drop...
Z -- i would happily dump any of the regulars for Zendaya. Blown away by Euphoria.
My hunch is Colman has this - and that THE MORNING SHOW may somewhat underperform come Emmy time.
I would love to see Zendaya in the ranks. She blew it away in Euphoria and it would bring a person of color in the category.
I think this is Colman vs. Linney for the win. OZARK is really gaining traction amongst fans and awards groups, and it’s been one of the biggest binges of the quarantine, so everyone probably saw it. I personally can’t stand it, but I get it. Colman is good on THE CROWN...and nothing more. It’s one of the biggest acting letdowns in a long time for me, given the epic career run she’s been on.
Evan Rachel Wood definitely has increased screen time, but she doesn’t have nearly as much to play with now that her character is so solely focused and in control.. Her season 1 performance remains the gold standard. And do people still watch KILLING EVE?
I would love Zendaya and Sarah Snook to sneak in, because they gave the actual two best leading actress performances of the year.
Steve: Kind of agree. The big problem is it doesn't start from nearly the same thrilling place that Breaking Bad did. Bateman is just the same kind of smarmy, superior uncool smart dude dick he was on Arrested Development. (Note: Bateman would make an AMAZING Reed Richards. Because, to toss out a Rick & Morty comparison, that "Rick and Jerry at the same time" thing is ABSOLUTELY what Reed Richards should be.)
I think I'm going to change Othiefia's name to "K-Mart Emma Thompson."
As to the mention on Baranski...she is doing exceptional work on "The Good Fight". One of the things that hurts her chances is that viewing the series requires subscribing to CBS All Access - it's not available on CBS broadcast.
Cynthia Erivo in The Outsider here or in supporting?
I just completed Season 3 of Ozark last night and what a strong finale! So unexpected, an interesting trajectory to the Byrde family.
So basically I am here for Laura Linney's particularly electric turn as Wendy. I saw this effervescence in Season 1, but Seasons 2 and 3 elevated Wendy's importance in the show, equal parts Patty Hewes in Damages and Nancy Botwin in Weeds. Julia Garner's arc as Ruth Langmore has also taken more significance. Janet McTeer gave solid support as a ball-busting lawyer. A strong series and I wish Linney, Garner, McTeer and even Lisa Emery as the don't-use-the-word-redneck quasi frontierwoman as Darlene Snell be nominated.
On the topic of Ozark, I thought Tom Pelphrey deserved a nomination. Those meltdown scenes were so raw, bruised, grounded on experience. I haven't heard of him before but I will seek his projects from now on. I wonder why Jason Butler Harner's work as Agent Petty never got any notice in Seasons 1 and 2. He's incendiary!
This category is so stacked. It pains me to think Zendaya will likely miss out for Euphoria when she was SO GOOD.
I love Olivia Colman but I don't think The Crown was the strongest thing she's done. I wouldn't be sad if she missed out here if someone like Zendaya or Sarah Snook got in instead.