by Nathaniel R
Kiki in Los Angeles and Aunjanue in Savannah recently
“The internet,” by which I mean that diffuse vibe one gets by scrolling through twitter, and clicking on award and film sites, always likes to jump the gun. People have figuratively been handing out Oscars for months, well before the campaigns revved up. But the long season of direct FYCs has now truly begun with Q&As and screenings suddenly abundant on both coasts. So where are we at with Best Supporting Actress? Don’t believe anyone who thinks this race is already settled. The supporting categories are often the last to clear up as they’re quite dependent on the film that houses them, the strength of the campaign, and once nominations are announced, the narratives for the win. But we do have some nomination probabilities.
ALMOST SURE THINGS?
I’ve moved Kristen Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis to the top of the charts in this category partially because they have no internal competition from their own films for that golden ticket to the Dolby. More importantly their films, Power of the Dog and King Richard respectively, have major Best Picture buzz and that always helps...
They also have clear “Oscar clip” scenes. That’s a reductive way to look at performances, yes, but nobody who knows the awards game, thinks that that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of the semi-arbitrary 'what and who has buzz' games. They were both soaking up the love in Los Angeles this week at AFI premieres.
Kirsten as Rose, and the Power of the Dog team at the LA premiere
For her part, Dunst is feeling the love. I had the pleasure of chatting for a few minutes with one of our long-time favs here at TFE at a Power of the Dog after party. She was in great spirits and resplendent in a full glam look after the AFI premiere. She shared that this all felt new to her which puzzled me so she elaborated; though she'd had well received performances before she’s never been in a film with this particular kind of across-the-board Oscar buzz before. She added that she’d love to finally be nominated, as much for her friends and family as for herself. In related news, in that the world really shouldn’t be discussing Dunst’s first nomination but her second or third, I’m happy to report that she still really loves Melancholia... as well she should!
ON THE CUSP
Bleecker Street’s Mass put some early effort into promoting Ann Dowd as the face of the superbly acted four-character drama but will the campaign keep up the push? And will the fact that Mass attracts a lot of different opinions on who is “best in show” matter? The trick for Bleecker Street will be getting voters to watch the tough-sell movie because once they do they'll be in love with the performances.
It would also be foolish to discount Ruth Negga who is magnificently bewitching in Passing in a very tricky role -- you’re meant to fall hard for her but also find her problematic and resent her for that same charismatic pull. It’s her best performance to date (onscreen that is -- we hear she is a powerhouse on stage, too).
And then there’s Belfast’s Caitronia Balfe and Judi Dench, competing with each other and with all the other supporting actresses for a spot in the line up. Balfe has an obsessive Outlander-born fanbase, but does that fanbase include Academy members? Dench is a legend and Oscar-beloved, too, but she has the smallest role of Belfast’s central quintet and of the five actresses we’ve already mentioned in this article. That might not matter given the love-letter Kenneth Branagh gives us via her indelible final close-up in the film.
WIGGLE ROOM AND "COATTAILS"
Sally Hawkins could be a coattail possibility with Kristen Stewart so strong in Lead Actress for Spencer. If Apple can rejuvenate the talk around CODA, Marlee Matlin is a possibility. And finally if The Lost Daughter pitch doesn’t get lost in Netflix’s overabundance of contenders, perhaps Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson could rise with the help of Olivia Colman's typical brilliance and the excitement around Maggie Gyllenhaal's heretofore unseen offscreen gifts.
STILL TO COME
Voting on nominations is still some time away so there’s plenty of time for other actors to rise up. Films that haven’t widely screened or are just beginning to screen this week and next include potential contenders like Rita Moreno or Ariana de Bose in West Side Story, Meryl Streep in Don’t Look Up, Toni Collette or Rooney Mara or Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, Nina Arianda in Being the Ricardos
UNLIKELY BUT FUN TO “CONSIDER…”
Gaby Hoffman is just great great casting as Joaquin Phoenix sister in C'Mon C'Mon but will the film have any heat outside screenplay?
I’m personally obsessed with Kathryn Hunter as The Witches in Tragedy of MacBeth but the Academy’s acting branch is often quite conservative about what type of performances they enjoy and that would be one of the most unusual nominations ever (but a good kind of miracle)
Jayne Houdyshell reprises her Tony-winning role in The Humans
As touching as Alexandra Shipp is in the very traditional “longsuffering girlfriend” role in tick, tick… BOOM! that film really belongs to its men.
Charlotte Rampling gives us a double feature of wildly intimidating politically-savvy nuns in Benedetta and Dune.
Martha Plimpton is sensational in Mass but she hasn’t been out there pushing the movie as hard as Dowd has.
The internet has gone wild for Rebecca Ferguson in Dune but I’d eat my hat if that happened. I can’t see it at all even though I also think she’s wonderful as usual (what screen presence she has!) It’s just that the Academy’s acting branch doesn’t really respect acting within the sci-fi genre and there's no true "scene" to make the case for her (and it's only half a performance too as we'll see the rest of her take on the character in a couple of years).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - UPDATED OSCAR CHART
UP NEXT: BEST ACTOR