by Nathaniel R
The annual competition for Best Director at the Oscars is in a very interesting era. The Academy has become increasingly international so, in theory, we can expect more international figures to pop up in this category rather than just the superstar auteurs. Though it's long had the same racial problems as the acting categories it's always had those in a much less visible way... until recently. And it wasn't all that long ago that people (or, more specifically, the media) didn't grouse about no women being up for the prize. The movement for equity behind the camera only went truly mainstream in the past decade. Female directors have always been around, of course, if not in the same numbers they are today it's a topic Juan Carlos is currently investigating as he moves backwards in time through the Oscar years in his series "Through Her Lens" (new episode drops tomorrow).
For the first time in history we could be looking at a second consecutive win by a female auteur since Jane Campion is currently the favourite for The Power of the Dog. But who else will join her in the lineup?
UPDATED OSCAR CHART
Opinions will vary here on the idea of "locks" -- people like to pass that word out like candy online. We hesitate to use it before the always crucial DGA nominations though we think that Jane Campion is safe. Members of the Director's Guild are already voting but, unlike with the Oscars, they have a long stretch in which to do so. Their voting period runs through January 26th, 2022 with their nominations coming on January 27th, 2022. Very broadly speaking they usually predict 4 of the 5 Oscar nominees. It's worth noting that their membership is MUCH larger and much less international.
Beyond Campion it gets (slightly) trickier. Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorize Pizza) are all very high profile, very well respected previous nominees in the category and all have reason to hope their names will be announced once again in February. But will it really be that simple?
THE SPOILER
We think that Adam McKay could well be the spoiler and knock one of the expected candidates out. He's done that twice before with The Big Short and Vice. This would be his third consecutive upheaval of the Best Director race at the end of the year with a comedy. But, hey, when they love you they love you. The question is not "do they love McKay?" as they obviously do but "when will his hot streak end?" because all every-time-you-do-something-we-love-it hot streaks do (with the exception of John Williams composer and Meryl Streep lead actress but those are different categories.)
LOW PROFILE BUT BIG MOVIE
It would also be foolish to entirely write off the possibility of a nomination for Reinaldo Marcus Green for King Richard if that film has the Best Picture heat many think it does. Yes, he could be left out by way of not being as famous, as critically established, or the movie not being obviously auteurist like the other frontrunning films. But he could always make it in on the strength of this one movie -- that's happened many times before.
FRESH BLOOD!
There's always the possibility, too, that Maggie Gyllenhaal surprises. A month ago we wouldn't have believed this (even though we loved The Lost Daughter) but she somehow managed to suck up nearly all the oxygen in precursors when it came to the very specific "exciting newish filmmaker" categories that we previously thought would be spread out amongst Lin-Manuel Miranda (tick tick BOOM), Rebecca Hall (Passing), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Michael Sarnoski (Pig) and more.
INTERNATIONAL DREAMS?
Finally, there are the subtitled movies to consider including very well respected filmmakers like Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God), Asghar Farhadi (A Hero), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), and Pedro Almodovar (Parallel Mothers). Could any of them surprise? Much has been written about the Academy's expanding international membership and the idea of a "foreign slot" but how real is that notion? It's not neccessarily a given that international directors will always vote internationally since revered American auteurs like Steven Spielberg and Paul Thomas Anderson are usually loved abroad, too. What's more several of the high profile English language Best Picture contenders are not directed by Americans. Jane Campion (New Zealand), Denis Villeneuve (Canada), Guillermo Del Toro (Mexico), Kenneth Branagh (Ireland) all have international appeal as well. We currently suspect that there are just too many buzzy subtitled features still being discussed for any of the non-English language films to be able to build enough of a voting block in this category in this particular season.
But maybe you feel differently? Do tell in the comments.