by Nathaniel R
"Mank" is about the writing of a legendary screenplay. That should do the trick.
Are there locks in the Screenplay categories? At the moment both races feel almost settled (aside from hugely competitive fifth slots) though the WGA nominations arrive on February 16th which could theoretically disrupt the consensus punditry.
ORIGINAL
In the original race Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel like certainties but are they? That's too many locks prior to the WGA nominations and leaves only one spot open. That hypothetical fifth spot battle has a lot of strong fighters...
Never Rarely Sometimes Always has won consistent praise for almost a solid year which has to count for something (in this case Academy members actually watching the movie). Sound of Metal is very moving and still feels like its gathering momentum, its profile considerably heightened by Riz Ahmed's strong precursor showing. Animated hits do occassional pop here so you can't count Soul out. The writing branch liked Spike Lee before the rest of AMPAS came around so Da 5 Bloods remains a distinct possibility, too. Judas and the Black Messiah hopes to be a late blooming hit with voters. Finally the writing branch has never been entirely immune to comic hits so Palm Springs is a loveable long shot. Anything else is certainly too far behind but the writers have a lot to choose from given that there's idiosyncratic comedies (The 40 Year Old Version, On the Rocks, Kajillionaire) and dramatic indie darlings (The Assistant, I Carry You With Me, Miss Juneteenth, The Nest) to siphon some votes away from the presumed frontrunners. My current guess is passionate support for Sound of Metal as a whole film, puts it over the edge though I worry that that same guess is wishful thinking which is a common pitfall of punditry. [My own ballot in case you missed it]
Charlie Kaufman on the set of "i'm thinking of ending things"
ADAPTED
This competition has the exact same settled 'but is it really?' feel. Nomadland as the Best Picture frontrunner and One Night in Miami as the writerly battle of ideas are surely locks. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom will secure a nomination unless enough voters feel like there wasn't much adaptation going on from stage to film on multiple levels (a common complaint about the film). Those who've seen The Father would never imagine that it could be left out here... but there's always the worry that Sony Pictures Classics just isn't pushing hard enough. So again there's a hypothetic fifth slot battle. News of the World currently has the momentum though some may view it as more as a craft and directorial achievement. First Cow has critical passion and would make a lot of sense as a screenplay-only contender though that besotted critical fandom might have much less influence on voters than usual since Nomadland usurped so much of the conversation in that regard. You can never count out beloved writers so Charlie Kaufman (3 writing nominations and 1 win) is still a threat for I'm Thinking of Ending Things. If there's a surprise contender the previously nominated pair of Armando Iannucci and Simon Blackwell (1 nomination for In the Loop) are right there with The Personal History of David Copperfield. Other longshots include Emma, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and White Tiger. My current guess is that News of the World's momentum and old-school likeability will pay off... but it's not a confident guess. [My own ballot in case you missed it]
Who do you think is conquering those fifth spot battles... or do you think one of the presumed locks is actually not going to happeen?